Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance reflects its desire for clearer insights into fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before making further interest rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation [3][6]. - Changes in fiscal policy, trade tensions, and economic data fluctuations can significantly impact interest rate decisions, prompting the Fed to wait for more data before acting [3][4]. Group 2: Market's Rate Cut Expectations - Despite the Fed's cautious stance leading traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, there remains a market expectation for a rate cut before the end of September, with probabilities slightly above 50% [4][5]. - This expectation reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, anticipating that a slowdown in inflation could lead the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [5][6]. - If inflation slows, the Fed may consider providing more support to the economy through rate cuts; conversely, if inflation remains high, the Fed might keep rates unchanged or even consider further increases [5][6]. - Economic deterioration, such as slowing growth or rising unemployment, could compel the Fed to implement rate cuts or other stimulus measures to stabilize the economy [5].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

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Macroeconomic Overview - The preliminary Markit PMI for April in the US indicates a slowdown in economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 51.2%, below the expected 52.0% and previous 53.5% [1] - The preliminary services PMI for April is 51.4%, lower than the expected 52.6% and previous 54.4% [1] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for April is 50.7%, exceeding the expected 49.0% and previous 50.2% [1] - Durable goods orders in March saw a significant month-on-month increase of 9.2%, far surpassing the expected 2% and previous 0.9% [1] - Excluding defense capital goods orders, durable goods orders increased only by 0.1% [1] - New home sales in March rose by 7.4%, significantly above the expected 1.3% and previous 3.1%, totaling 724,000 units [1] - Existing home sales, however, fell by 5.9% year-on-year, below the expected -2.6% and previous 4.4%, with a total of 4.02 million units [1] Major Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index increased by 1.26% over the week [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index surged by 6.43% during the same period [2][3] - The S&P 500 Index rose by 4.59%, with 10 out of 11 sectors showing gains, led by Information Technology at 7.93% [2][3] Market Sentiment and Trends - The US stock market experienced a rebound last week, with a decline in gold prices [2] - President Trump indicated he would not dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, and there are signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [2] - The VIX fear index temporarily fell to 25, reflecting reduced market anxiety [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with a 10% probability of a cut in May and an expected 3.50 cuts in 2025 [2]