交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年7月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.5万吨，环比有所增加1.35%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.7万吨，环比增长11.59%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅 库存为27.6万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 78100吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为55元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 68.88%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.89万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为948元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为627.53元/吨，再生铝开 工率为53.6%，环比持平，处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

煤炭行业完全成本的主要构成是什么？ 动力煤生产成本普遍上升，2024 年平均单位成本 181 元，高于十三五 期间 80 元，但低于 2023 年。中国神华、陕西煤业等龙头企业成本增 加主要源于人工费用和其他相关支出，如维检费、安全费用和专项储备。 专项储备的释放成为降低生产成本的有效途径。中国神华、中煤能源等 公司通过减少专项储备，用于设备和材料采购，实现了业绩超预期，表 明其他公司如潞安环能和淮北矿业也具备降本潜力。 不同煤炭企业成本变化差异显著。陕西煤业成本上升主要因折旧摊销和 人工成本增加；兖矿能源因收购矿井导致成本大幅上涨，盈利能力下降； 中煤能源则通过新增高效产能摊薄了生产成本。 资源税率上调增加了煤炭企业的完全成本。山西、新疆、内蒙古和陕西 榆林等地相继上调资源税率，导致坑口售价每吨完全成本至少上升 10 元以上，对企业盈利能力构成一定压力。 动力煤行业盈利能力受售价影响显著。2025 年 1-5 月行业税前利润率 为 12%，税后利润率约为 9%-10%。动力煤售价在 600 元/吨时，每吨 盈利约 50 元；售价达到 1,000 元/吨时，每吨盈利约 100 元。 Q&A 从完全成本角度看中 ...

先达股份 20250710 摘要 公司二季度整体毛利约 3 亿元，洗澡桶贡献超 1 亿元，占比约 30%，异 恶草松、乙草烟等产品亦贡献显著。比多奎早指收入已入账约 50%- 60%，剩余部分 7 月入账。预计第三季度毛利或增加超 1 亿元。 洗澡桶价格 4-6 月波动，大客户价格稳定在 13-14 万元，小客户接近 14 万元。预计四季度旺季结束后价格可能回落，但幅度待定。公司对外 报价未下滑，维持大客户报价 13 万多。 印度无复产计划，一帆即使复产也难赶上旺季订单，对市场价格影响有 限。去年下半年至今，公司通过焚烧炉工艺改进和新焚烧炉投运，成本 控制显著改善，处于行业中上水平。 葵草酮和吡唑葵草酯是水稻田除草剂，吡唑葵草酯市场空间更大，目标 收入五六亿元，预计三到四年内实现。公司正进行试验和海外登记，扩 大国际市场份额。 北美小龙（北北小棕）与跨国公司合作，已签署保密协议，待取得登记 证后签订正式协议。产品正在评审，需补充材料，预计下一次会议可能 上会。2025 年上半年创新药收入贡献约 40~50 万元，毛利 2000 多万 元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年先达股份业绩预增的主要原因是什么？ 2025 ...

多晶硅近期价格变化及展望 20250710 摘要 多晶硅价格近期上涨超 10%，主要受新疆和内蒙地区成本审核影响，但 下游硅片厂商观望，实际成交量有限。市场报价虽高，但 40 元/公斤左 右为实际成交价，多数硅料企业仍亏损，电池片尚未启动涨价，涨价持 续性存疑。 成本审核可能导致硅料企业按成本线以上定价，大型厂商如大全、新特 能源和通威因成本优势更具竞争力，而中小型厂商面临生存压力。若行 业协会采用标杆企业数据作为标准，二三线厂商将面临更大压力。 协鑫硫化床技术取得突破，能耗大幅降低，颗粒硅纯度提升，对传统棒 状硅构成竞争优势。颗粒硅与棒状硅在化学反应条件和成本上存在显著 差异，颗粒硅的折价逐渐消失。 二三线硅料厂商处境艰难，生产成本远高于行业标杆，n 型率表现不佳， 面临关停风险。为维持运营，他们采取低价策略，加速资金流失，或采 取少产策略，间歇性开机，以减少电费支出。 硅料厂商库存维持在 40 万吨左右且有增长趋势，硅片厂商库存相对较 少，大约能支撑 15 天到 30 天的生产。高库存下，价格回落风险较低， 硅料和硅片环节率先涨价可能性较大。 Q&A 目前行业内主流硅料企业的报价水平如何？实际成交情况是什 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

智通财经7月11日电，美联储古尔斯比称，不理解美联储应该降息以降低政府债务成本的观点，美联储 的使命授权是关于就业和物价。 ...

对此，中国动力解释，上半年，公司柴油机板块销售规模持续快速增长，合同结算大幅增加，主要产品 船用低速发动机的价格增长。公司深入贯彻"成本工程"，产品盈利能力提升。 长江商报记者发现，近几年，中国动力的毛利率、净利率持续双升。2025年一季度，公司毛利率 16.18%，同比上升5.53个百分点。 长江商报消息 船舶行业继续保持高景气，国内舰船动力及传动装备龙头企业中国动力（600482.SH）经 营业绩继续快速增长。 根据业绩预告，2025年上半年，中国动力预计实现归母净利润8亿元到11.5亿元，同比增长 68.28%到 141.90%。预计实现扣非净利润7亿元到10.5亿元，同比增长66.99%到150.49%。 中国动力市场底蕴深厚，市场地位领先。公司依托中国船舶集团及对应业务的科研院所，拥有强大的科 技创新能力和较为完备的科技创新体系。公司也积极投身研发，过去三年，年度研发投入均超过20亿 元。 中国动力的核心竞争力还表现在流动性充足。截至2025年一季度末，公司货币资金接近400亿元。 营收净利连续两年半双增 对于上半年预计业绩快速增长，中国动力解释，主要原因有两个，一个是船舶行业继续保持增长势头， 公 ...

资本公积转增注册资本这一增资方式成为新风向后，又有险企"另辟蹊径"。7月10日，北京商报记者了解到，四川金融监管局近日批复锦泰财产保险股份有 限公司（以下简称"锦泰保险"）的注册资本金由23.79亿元增至31.88亿元。据了解，此次增资是通过资本公积转增注册资本的方式。 增资而非募资，锦泰保险"补血"模式生变释放出哪些信号？该公司近年来虽持续盈利，但2024年净利润下滑明显，不仅如此，该公司总经理一职仍空缺。对 于锦泰保险以及下一任接棒者而言，如何进一步聚焦差异化布局，在激烈的市场竞争中寻求突围？ 又一增资事项获批 近日，四川金融监管局发布关于锦泰保险变更注册资本的批复称，同意锦泰保险通过资本公积转增注册资本方式，将注册资本由23.79亿元变更为31.88亿 元，各股东持股比例保持不变。 在锦泰保险今年5月发布的股东会会议决议公告中，该公司拟以定向发行股票方式增资扩股溢价所形成的部分资本公积转增注册资本，以公司现有总股份为 基数，向全体股东按每10股转增3.4股比例转增股份，预计共转增股份8.09亿股，合计转增股本8.09亿元。该公司注册资本将由目前的23.79亿元增加至31.88 亿元。 于险企而言，增加注 ...

本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：林骏杰、钟立晨，题图来自：AI生 成 曾几何时，"海外名校硕士"是通往精英阶层的黄金门票，也是打工人阶层跃升的理想途径。但在今天 的就业市场，这张曾经闪闪发光的文凭，正悄然贬值。 越来越多的求职者和用人单位开始反思：读一个硕士，尤其是"水硕"，真的还值得吗？ 所谓"水硕"，通常指那些入学和毕业极为容易、学制短、含金量低的硕士项目。这类项目在国内外高 校中并非个例，尤其在海外一些高校呈产业化趋势，留学中介正是利用这些"易录取、好毕业、学制 短、价格低"的卖点，推出一条龙服务，甚至代写作业和论文，帮助学生快速拿到学位。这些速成项 目被网友戏称为典型的"水硕"。 在英国等英联邦国家，一年制授课型硕士本有其历史合理性，但高等教育市场化后，一些课程被压缩 得极为紧凑。课程结构上，这类项目往往以授课为主、缺少实践环节。 例如，有报道指出曼彻斯特大学某传媒学硕士项目的核心课程每周仅有两小时讲座，引发了课程"注 水"的质疑。甚至有个别海外院校专门开设了针对中国学生的"定制班"，中国学生比例高达90%，形 成文化孤岛，进一步降低了真实跨文化学习的机会。 这 ...

证券代码：000688 证券简称：国城矿业 国城矿业股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 1 | | | | | 答：公司全资子公司凤阳县中都矿产开发服务有限公司（以下简称"中都矿产"）拥有凤阳县江山--大王府整合区金铅锌多金属矿，采矿权内共保有矿石量 | 992.43 | 万吨，金金属量 | 16.226 吨，锌金属量 | 32,165 | 吨，铅金属量 | 43,357 | 吨，铜金属量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1,544 吨，银金属量 | 147 吨。中都矿产现已取得生产规模为 | 35 万吨/年的采矿权许可证并进入实质性开发阶段，未来将有助于丰富公司贵金属的储备，提高公司核心竞争力与可持续发展能力。此外，中都矿产目前正在申请外围探矿权延续，并推 | | | | | | | | | | | 进相关勘查找矿工作，资源储量有望进一步扩大。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 关于本次活动是否涉及应披露重大信息的说明 | 不适用 | | | ...