Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the economic transformation in China has entered a new phase, characterized by a decline in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, and a shift towards new consumption patterns and service-oriented growth [3][4] - The conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan brought together executives from nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest and engagement in the capital markets [1] - The chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhao Wei, highlighted that the traditional policy framework is becoming less effective, necessitating a comprehensive policy innovation to support the new economic phase [3] Group 2 - Zhao Wei noted that new consumption forms, such as self-care and experiential consumption, have emerged significantly over the past two years, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - The economic indicators suggest a "bottoming out" of short-term consumer confidence, with a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption approaching [3] - The focus of economic policy is expected to shift from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" by the end of 2024, with an emphasis on supporting the service sector as a key area for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak transition" in the second half of 2025, with manufacturing facing potential downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to play a significant role in the structural reforms of the supply side, aiming for broader and more coordinated economic adjustments [4] - Increased support for the service sector is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate pressures from the manufacturing sector and to unleash demand potential [4]

6月3日，中国物流与采购联合会、中国物流信息中心发布数据显示，前4个月，物流需求延续恢复态 势，需求总量持续扩张。全国社会物流总额达115.3万亿元，同比增长5.6%，增速较一季度回落0.1个百 分点。 数据显示，前4个月，物流相关基础设施投资同比增长3.9%，"两新"政策效应持续显现，设备购置投资 引领作用突出，水上运输业、航空运输业投资分别增长26.9%和13.9%。前4个月，物流景气指数中固定 资产投资完成额指数均值为51.6%，较去年同期提高1.9个百分点；4月份当月该指数达53.6%，创近三年 新高。 孟圆表示，工业物流基本盘稳固，产业升级加速推进。4月份，工业品物流总额增速平稳，多数行业和 产品物流需求保持增长，41个大类行业增长面达87.8%。装备制造业物流表现亮眼，智能化、数字化驱 动传统制造供应链向价值链中高端转型，新动能支撑作用凸显，4月份高技术制造相关物流需求同比增 长10.0%，持续高于工业品物流总额增速。 值得关注的是，线上电商消费活力强劲，前4个月，实物商品网上零售额增长5.8%，较一季度提升0.1个 百分点，占社会消费品零售总额比重达24.3%，环比提高0.3个百分点。4月份中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating the effectiveness of proactive macro policies, while the non-manufacturing sector continues to expand, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1][3][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - Key sub-indices such as production, new orders, and procurement have shown improvement, with increases ranging from 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 50.9%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, maintaining above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months [9]. - Significant growth in new orders and export orders in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, with new export orders rising over 5 and 3 percentage points respectively [4][10]. Price Indices - The purchasing price index for manufacturing is at 46.9%, and the factory price index is at 44.7%, both showing a slight decrease but with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [6]. - The overall market price decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in demand and production [6]. Employment and Investment - Production investment is showing signs of recovery, contributing to an improving employment situation [7]. - The focus is on activating the domestic market and achieving the goal of expanding domestic demand to support economic circulation [7]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation shows a foundation for continued recovery, supported by stable non-manufacturing activities and positive performance in investment, consumption, and exports [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased volatility in the international trade environment, China's industrial enterprises above a designated size reported a profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a continued recovery trend [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with April alone showing a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.4% [2]. - The revenue profit margin for these enterprises rose by 0.17 percentage points to 4.87%, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - A series of stable growth policies have been implemented to support industrial enterprises, particularly in response to external pressures [1][2]. - The State Council's meeting on April 18 emphasized measures to stabilize employment and foreign trade, as well as to promote consumption and domestic demand [1]. - Policies such as increased export tax rebates and financial support for foreign trade enterprises have created a favorable environment for trade development [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the way [3]. - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 11.2%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises remains low, indicating a need for continued monitoring of profit trends [4]. - Expectations suggest that adjustments in tariffs between China and the U.S. may lead to reduced export costs and improved external demand, further supporting profit growth [5].

商报讯（记者 徐菁菁 通讯员 李叶彩 方志）昨日，杭州市统计局发布2025年1-4月杭州经济运行情况。 总体来看，全市经济运行总体平稳，延续向新向好态势。 作为外贸主力军，敢拼敢闯的民营企业是杭州外贸经营主体活力迸发的缩影。1-4月，全市货物进出口 总额2829亿元，同比增长9.4%。其中，民营企业货物出口1509亿元，增长18.1%，占货物出口的 76.4%，比上年同期提高0.7个百分点；在新兴市场拓展方面，对共建"一带一路"国家出口966亿元，增 长23.9%，高于全部出口增速6.9个百分点。 "总体来看，1-4月，随着宏观政策持续发力显效，全市经济继续保持了良好的运行态势，高质量发展扎 实推进。但也要看到，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，有效需求不足等问题依然存在，经济持续向好基础 仍需加固。"杭州市统计局有关负责人表示。 以旧换新促消费政策持续释放红利，消费者对新型通讯器材的需求持续高涨。家用电器和音像器材类零 售额也实现了较大幅度增长，汽车类零售额保持上扬。1-4月，全市社会消费品零售总额2817亿元，同 比增长6.4%，比一季度加快0.1个百分点。限额以上商品中，汽车类零售额392亿元，增长13.7%， ...

Group 1 - The conference highlighted the importance of the city council's role in providing suggestions for economic and social development, with 18 speech materials submitted and 15 members speaking at the meeting [1] - Key topics discussed included economic development, technological innovation, urban renewal, cultural industry, employment, social governance, environmental protection, and food safety [1] - Emerging concepts such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and new energy sources were frequently mentioned, indicating a focus on urban innovation and development [1] Group 2 - Suggestions for strengthening the chip design and manufacturing industry were made, emphasizing the need for a robust computing infrastructure and data resource systems [2] - Recommendations for urban renewal included a focus on overall area development to create scale effects and a systematic approach to project selection [2] - The importance of developing the eVTOL industry within the low-altitude economy was highlighted, with calls for collaboration between enterprises and educational institutions [2] Group 3 - Proposals to enhance patient capital to accelerate the development of new productive forces in Hangzhou were presented, including policy guidance and the establishment of relay fund systems [3] - The need for strengthening corporate R&D institutions was emphasized, with suggestions for reducing costs and enhancing resource supply [3] - The role of platform enterprises in driving innovation and employment was acknowledged, with recommendations for better collaboration and ecosystem development [3] Group 4 - Employment strategies focused on supporting key groups and expanding job channels were discussed, highlighting the importance of high-quality employment for economic growth [4] - Suggestions for improving community governance and service capabilities were made, emphasizing the role of party leadership and community autonomy [4] - Recommendations for enhancing school cafeteria management and food safety for children were presented, stressing the need for nutritional and safe meal options [5] Group 5 - Transportation development was identified as crucial for urban growth, with suggestions for enhancing airport capabilities and improving transportation networks [5] - The importance of rural development for achieving common prosperity was emphasized, with calls for balanced infrastructure and public service distribution [5] - Proposals for biodiversity protection and the promotion of unique local species were made, highlighting the need for sustainable utilization and value realization [5] - Cultural heritage initiatives aimed at promoting Wu-Yue culture were discussed, with suggestions for immersive cultural tourism projects and the creation of signature cultural products [5]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, indicating stable and rapid growth in major economic indicators [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, which rose by 38.8% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a month-on-month increase of 0.10%, reflecting a stable investment environment [1] Investment and Trade - The investment in equipment and tools from January to April increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [2] - Despite external shocks, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] High-tech and New Energy Sectors - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 10% year-on-year in April, with aerospace equipment and integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 21.4% and 21.3%, respectively [3] - Production of new energy products, such as electric vehicles and charging piles, surged by 38.9% and 43.1%, respectively, highlighting the rapid development of the green low-carbon transition [3] Policy and Future Outlook - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial tools, aim to support technological innovation and expand consumption [4] - Analysts expect that as policy effects continue to manifest, consumption will strengthen, further supporting investment growth [4] - The economic operation is anticipated to improve moderately in May and June, with a focus on effectively utilizing existing policies [4]

Group 1 - In April, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by falling international energy prices and domestic price drops in certain industries [1] - Despite the ongoing decline in PPI, macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, leading to a recovery in market demand and growth in new economic drivers, resulting in price improvements in some sectors [1] Group 2 - Demand in the high-end manufacturing sector has strengthened, with prices for wearable smart devices increasing by 3% and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 1.3% in April, driven by economic restructuring and expanding demand for high-tech products [1] - The "Two New" policies are showing effects, with a narrowing decline in prices for household washing machines and new energy passenger vehicles by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1] - In traditional industries, there has been an improvement in supply and demand, with price declines in the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products narrowing by 1.4 and 1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The continuous decline in PPI indicates that some industries are experiencing significant price drops, which negatively impacts the profitability of industrial enterprises [2] - There is a need to continue expanding domestic demand, promote technological and industrial innovation, and optimize capacity structure to achieve a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand, thereby improving industrial product prices and enhancing business confidence [2]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠强 资深高级宏观分析师 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事 件： 2025年一季度GDP同比5.4%、预期5.2%、前值5.4%。3月，社零当月同比5.9%、预期4.4%、前值 4%；固定资产投资累计同比4.2%、预期4%、前值4.1%；房地产开发投资累计同比-9.9%、预期-10.2%、 前值-9.8%；新建商品房销售面积累计同比-3%、前值-5.1%；工业增加值当月同比7.7%、预期5.9%、前值 5.9%。 核心观点：2024年表现强劲的"旧结构"继续发力，但"新结构"也在蓄势恢复。 一季度经济超预期，主要源于2024年强势领域的支撑延续，但"新动能"的贡献也在提速。 一季度实际 GDP同比5.4%，高基数下仍持平2024年Q4。结构上，二产增加值增速大幅反弹构成主要支撑（+0.7pct至 5.9%），主因出口走强、制造业投资保持高位、消费提速的影响。但2024年表现较弱的消费当前明显提 速，是新的积极变化。此外，服务业投资增速（4.8%） ...