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“八个坚持”拓开2026年中国经济大视野
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-15 03:12
Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Domestic Market - The core macroeconomic policy emphasizes a more proactive approach, focusing on quality and efficiency as key development themes, with the "Eight Persistences" as critical directives for economic work in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Domestic demand has become the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, highlighting the importance of a strong domestic market as a long-term strategy [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The necessity of innovation-driven growth is underscored, as new momentum is essential for future development and competitive positioning, requiring a systemic reshaping of production factors and business models [4][5] - The development of new momentum must support both high-end industries and traditional industry upgrades, creating high-quality employment and meeting the needs of the populace [5] Group 3: Reform and High-Quality Development - Continuous reform is essential to inject vitality into high-quality development, addressing deep-seated issues that have emerged due to changing development stages [6][7] - Emphasis on technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development, necessitating a deep integration of innovation systems and breaking down institutional barriers [7] Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - China aims for a higher level of openness, promoting multi-faceted cooperation to adapt to global economic changes and challenges, emphasizing the importance of collaborative networks in various fields [8][9] - The need for innovative cooperation mechanisms to address challenges posed by protectionism and geopolitical tensions is highlighted, focusing on quality and resilience in partnerships [9] Group 5: Coordinated Development and Urban-Rural Integration - The strategy of promoting coordinated development aims to address the growing disparities between urban and rural areas, emphasizing the need for a balanced and inclusive development approach [10][11] - Regional integration strategies like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaboration and the Yangtze River Economic Belt are examples of efforts to optimize resource allocation and promote high-quality regional economic layouts [11] Group 6: Green Transformation and Carbon Neutrality - The commitment to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 reflects China's responsibility in global climate governance and the need for a comprehensive green transformation [12][13] - Innovation is identified as the core engine for achieving carbon goals, requiring advancements in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the establishment of supportive institutional frameworks [14] Group 7: Focus on People's Livelihood - The emphasis on prioritizing people's livelihoods reflects the increasing complexity of public demands, necessitating a responsive governance approach that addresses specific community needs [15][16] - Establishing long-term mechanisms to ensure sustainable improvements in public welfare is crucial, with a focus on resource allocation and social governance [16] Group 8: Risk Management - The need to manage risks in key areas such as real estate and local debt is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining stability while actively addressing potential threats [17][18] - A balanced approach to risk management is essential, combining immediate responses with long-term structural improvements to foster sustainable development [18]
11月份物价数据彰显经济韧性与潜力
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-14 16:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the recent increase in consumer prices indicates a synchronized improvement in supply and demand, reflecting economic resilience and potential [1][2] - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2% for three consecutive months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking two consecutive months of growth, indicating a positive trend in industrial pricing [1] Group 2 - The increase in consumer prices is attributed to effective policy measures and the growth of new economic drivers, with specific sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods seeing price increases of 20.6%, 4.3%, and 1.1% respectively [1] - The prices of household appliances and clothing rose by 4.9% and 2.0% year-on-year in November, while prices for services such as airline tickets and home services also increased, reflecting a shift in consumer spending patterns [2] - The sustained rise in core CPI suggests a steady increase in consumer confidence, supported by macroeconomic policies and efforts to optimize market competition and production capacity [2]
从政策到投资、从壮大新动能到“人工智能+”,怎么干?
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-12-14 01:50
中央经济工作会议指出,2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。如何理解2026年财政政策的取向? 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示,2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策,这是基于对国内外经济形势判断所作出的选择。这也 可以看到政策是一以贯之的,是保持相当力度的。跟2026年的经济工作的目标来说是相称的,它能够支撑经济目标的实现。 中央经济工作会议指出,要继续实施更加积极的财政政策,保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。专家表示,2026年的财 政政策取向与2025年保持了一致。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒表示,从量的角度,要确保必要的财政赤字规模,新增债务总规模以及必要的财政支出 力度。通过政府的支出,比如政府采购以及基建工程项目来扩大社会的总需求,形成居民部门、企业部门的收入,推动经济运行的 循环。第二是结构的优化,要坚持将投资于物和投资于人的结合,提高居民的医疗、教育和养老,这样居民的后顾之忧得到了缓 解,进而有利于去释放潜在的消费需求。 提高财政资金使用效率 更多资金投到民生 实施更加积极的财政政策,如何确保财政资金使用更加高效,让每一分钱都花到"刀刃"上? 中央经济工作会议指出,加强财政 ...
东方证券研究所所长黄燕铭:中国经济长期向好具有三大核心驱动力
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-12 16:25
本报记者 周尚伃 在部署明年经济工作重点任务时,会议明确,坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能。黄燕铭分析称,从具体措施来看,涉 及教育与人才、国际科技创新中心、知识产权保护制度、服务业扩能提质、重点产业链高质量发展、"人工智能+"及其治理、 科技金融服务等一系列主题。这一变化背后体现的是"新动能"的指向变得更加广泛,不仅是科技本身,还包括科技带动的制 度、产业、社会治理、金融乃至服务业的升级,最终形成正向循环。 在支持战略性新兴产业和改造提升传统产业方面,结合一些既有政策,黄燕铭认为三大方向值得期待: 一是推动民间投资与财政支持"双向奔赴"。其中,既要继续发挥超长期特别国债、专项债、各地产业投资基金等工具对重 大项目、科技项目的拉动作用,也要鼓励民间投资以及企业本身担当更加重要的角色。 二是以需求侧牵引产业升级,包括但不限于鼓励政府以更大比例采购首台(套)重大技术装备、首批次新材料、首版次软 件产品,以及数字化、绿色化改造后的传统产品、在"两新"或其他消费品补贴的实施中进一步向智能、绿色产品倾斜,开放更 多智慧公路、低空遥感、智能电网等场景,鼓励企业在应用中创新。 三是使金融成为科技创新与产业升级的生力军,把活 ...
中信建投证解读中央经济工作会议:积极政策取向未变,扩大内需为重点工作之首
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 14:46
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 来源:中信建投证券 核心观点 一看会议对形势判断,对当下社会热议的经济问题,此次会议给出定论,"这些大多是发展中、转型中 的问题,经过努力是可以解决的"。 二看政策勾画的2026年经济图景,拓展新空间的内需、止跌回稳的投资、主动化债的地方财政、深入推 进的反内卷、稳定的地产、逐渐壮大的新动能、逐步落地的多项长期改革。 三看会议给出的增量政策,财政方向是"更加积极",除了赤字率仍维持高位之外,举债规模进一步扩 张,地方债务风险兜底,税制改革,这些都是增量。货币政策"适度宽松",锚定"物价合理回升",预计 力度至少与今年齐平。 四看产业趋势,重视新动能、人工智能、服务业、新能源、海洋经济及反内卷。 信息或事件 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 一、积极政策取向未变,有利于经济修复和资产价格 去年中央经济工作会议将财政政策的表述由"积极"调整为"更加积极",将货币政策的表述由"稳健"调整 为"适度宽松"。 今年中央经济工作会议对宏观政策的定调与去年一致,均为"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策",提出"要 继续实施更加积极的财政政策" ...
中央经济工作会议部署产业政策:培育新动能,深入整治“内卷”
Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to adhere to innovation-driven development and accelerate the cultivation of new growth drivers [1][3] - The shift in policy from "leading new quality productivity development through technological innovation" to "accelerating the cultivation of new growth drivers" reflects a deeper emphasis on implementation pathways and practical results [2][4] - The conference highlights the importance of optimizing the service industry structure through a dedicated action plan, which aligns with the strategy to expand domestic demand [5][6] Group 2: Service Industry Development - The service industry is recognized for its strategic importance in the national economy, with a projected contribution of 56.7% to GDP by 2024, although structural imbalances exist [6][7] - The action plan for enhancing the service industry aims to improve service quality, thereby boosting consumer confidence and creating a virtuous cycle of service upgrades, consumption growth, and industrial expansion [7][8] - The government plans to support private capital in the production service sector, focusing on high-value service industries such as industrial design and quality certification [7][8] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Governance - The policy regarding "Artificial Intelligence+" has evolved from "initiating actions" to "deepening and expanding" while also emphasizing the need for improved governance [8][9] - The focus on AI reflects its critical role in driving productivity across various industries, necessitating a balance between innovation and risk management [9][10] - The governance framework aims to address challenges such as data misuse and algorithmic bias, ensuring that the development of AI aligns with ethical standards and societal needs [9][10] Group 4: Competition Regulation - The conference reiterates the need for deeper regulation of "involutionary competition," transitioning from a broad initial assessment to targeted governance measures [10][11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is aimed at eliminating local protectionism and market fragmentation, which are key contributors to involutionary competition [11] - The emphasis on precise governance reflects an understanding of the complexities involved in addressing the root causes of involutionary competition, promoting high-quality development through enhanced competition standards [11]
培育壮大新动能 充分发挥资本市场枢纽功能
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-10 16:25
本报记者 郭冀川 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议。会议提出,坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能。 中国移动通信联合会教育与科学技术研究院执行院长陈晓华在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,培育壮大新动能内涵丰 富且多元,其中培育新质生产力与新兴支柱产业是重要着力点。以人工智能、商业航天、生物制造等产业为例,这些产业正凭 借其独特的技术优势和广阔的发展前景,逐渐成为具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业。人工智能作为引领新一轮科技革命和产业 变革的战略性技术,正深刻改变着人类生产生活方式。从智能语音助手到自动驾驶汽车、从医疗影像诊断到金融风险预测,人 工智能的应用场景不断拓展,为各行业带来了前所未有的效率提升和创新机遇。 萨摩耶云科技集团首席经济学家郑磊补充表示,新动能还包括新能源、新材料、高端装备制造等产业。新能源产业是实现 能源转型和可持续发展的关键,随着太阳能、风能、水能等可再生能源技术的不断进步和成本的不断降低,新能源产业将迎来 更加广阔的发展空间。新材料产业是其他产业发展的基础和先导,高性能合金、新型复合材料、纳米材料等新材料的应用,将 推动航空航天、电子信息、汽车等产业的升级换代。高端装备制造产业则是衡量一个国家 ...
创新驱动培育壮大新动能 夯实经济发展根基
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-08 18:17
突破瓶颈需精准施策。政策层面,今年前10个月支持科技创新的税费优惠已达23725亿元,带动1—11月 高技术产业销售收入增长14.7%。朱克力建议,原始创新需建立长期投入机制,集中攻关"卡脖子"技 术;产业创新要推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合;成果转化需完善股权激励与技术转移机制。袁帅则 提出,应提高研发费用加计扣除比例、加大政府采购自主创新产品力度,强化企业主体地位。 中国城市发展研究院投资部副主任袁帅也向记者表示,要实现高水平科技创新,离不开开放协同、包容 多元的创新生态,需要促进产学研用深度融合,激发各类创新主体活力,形成创新要素自由流动、高效 配置的良好环境,推动科技创新持续、健康发展。 在全球科技竞争加剧背景下,朱克力强调,创新驱动是构建新发展格局的关键。既要通过自主创新保障 产业链安全,又要以技术升级拓展国际市场。唯有深化创新驱动,整合多元主体力量,精准布局战略赛 道,才能让新动能持续迸发,为高质量发展注入不竭动力。 中央政治局会议作出"坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能"的部署,与"十五五"规划建议中关于科技创 新的要求形成紧密呼应。国研新经济研究院创始院长朱克力向记者解释,关于创新驱动的部署并非 ...
明年经济工作怎么干?中央政治局会议释放六大信号
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to maintain a stable yet progressive economic approach, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance and address current economic challenges [1][5][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions and advancing the construction of a unified national market [6][7][8] - The meeting underscored the necessity of innovation-driven growth, aiming to cultivate new economic drivers and enhance the quality of development through increased investment in technology and manufacturing [8][9] Group 2 - The meeting called for the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, continuing the approach established in previous meetings [5][6] - It was noted that the macroeconomic policy environment for 2026 is expected to maintain a "wide fiscal, wide monetary" framework, with fiscal policy playing a crucial role in stabilizing growth and structural adjustments [6][7] - The meeting emphasized the need to address key risks in specific sectors, including real estate and local government debt, while ensuring the stability of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [9][10]
马上评|冲刺“十四五”收官战,上海继续挑大梁
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 03:30
Core Insights - Shanghai's port throughput has surpassed 50 million TEUs ahead of schedule, indicating strong economic recovery and growth momentum as the city approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The city's GDP growth rate for the first three quarters reached 5.5%, outpacing the national average, with significant contributions from strategic emerging industries [3] - Shanghai's retail sales and tourism have shown robust growth, with a notable increase in consumer spending and new business models emerging [4] Economic Performance - Shanghai's economy has shown resilience, with a steady recovery and better-than-expected performance in the first three quarters of the year [2] - The city achieved a record intent transaction amount of $83.49 billion at the recent China International Import Expo, reflecting a 4.4% increase from the previous year [2] - The total number of inbound and outbound passengers at Pudong International Airport exceeded 30 million, marking a 19.8% year-on-year increase [2] Industrial Development - The share of strategic emerging industries in Shanghai's total industrial output has risen to 44.1%, with manufacturing output in key sectors like AI and biomedicine growing by 8.5% [3] - Shanghai is actively exploring non-traditional markets for exports, with significant growth in exports to India (44.2%), Hong Kong (43.5%), and ASEAN (27.6%) [3] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Shanghai reached 1.2303 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [4] - Major events and exhibitions have driven consumer engagement, with over 2.55 million tourists during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, reflecting a nearly 20% increase [4] Future Outlook - Shanghai aims to solidify its position as a world-class modern socialist city, focusing on technological innovation and industrial upgrades as it transitions into the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] - The city is committed to playing a leading role in China's modernization efforts, with ongoing projects in the Lingang New Area and the Yangtze River Delta integration [5]