Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow range consolidation with mixed performance across the three major indices, as the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, with over 3,200 stocks declining [1][19] - The market saw a return of funds to "price increase" themes, with prices of rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, tin, and antimony rising [1][23] Sector Performance Non-ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) rose by 2.29%, with a trading volume of 89.8 million yuan, marking an 80% increase in trading activity [1][20] - Significant inflows into the non-ferrous metals sector, with over 13.7 billion yuan in main funds entering, making it the top sector in terms of capital inflow [22] - Key stocks in the small metals sector, such as Xiamen Tungsten and Jinchuan Group, saw gains exceeding 7% [22] Chemical Sector - The chemical ETF (516020) surged by 2.19%, with a peak increase of 3.02% during the trading session, reflecting strong market momentum [8][26] - The chemical sector attracted 13.8 billion yuan in main funds, ranking second among all sectors [11] - Notable stock performances included New Zhonbang, which surged by 8.16%, and Tongkun Co., which rose by 7.82% [9][26] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed signs of recovery, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF Huabao (520780) gaining 1.6% for four consecutive days [1][21] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) rose nearly 1%, driven by the performance of major internet companies [1][21] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments have released certain risks, and upcoming events and the "Spring Festival effect" may create a favorable environment for market recovery [1][20] - Key investment themes include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and price increase chains [1][20] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF is expected to highlight the value of AI core assets as new AI-related companies enter the market [2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current stage of the spring market rally in A-shares, highlighting the historical calendar effect that typically leads to a "spring surge" around the New Year and the "Two Sessions" period, with most years experiencing this phenomenon except for 2022 and 2015 [1][7]. Historical Data Analysis - Historical data shows that the spring market rally has an average duration of about 40 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 13.97% in the Shanghai Composite Index [7]. - The starting points of past spring rallies are somewhat dispersed, primarily occurring in December (5 times), January (7 times), and February (3 times) since 2010 [7]. Current Market Outlook - The current policy environment, fundamental expectations, and liquidity conditions supporting the spring rally have not fundamentally changed, suggesting a high probability of market recovery post-Spring Festival [7][8]. - Historical trends indicate that the spring rally could provide around 20% upside potential, with the current market still having room for further development [4][8]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a short-term holding strategy during the holiday period, emphasizing the importance of focusing on high-probability stocks, particularly in sectors like power equipment, storage and semiconductor equipment, chemicals, engineering machinery, agriculture, and personal care [5][8]. - It is recommended to consider consumer and travel chains that benefit from the long holiday for potential low-cost investments [5]. Future Market Conditions - The next 1-2 months are expected to present favorable conditions for A-shares, with February and the period around the Spring Festival being historically the strongest for the "spring surge" effect, favoring small-cap stocks [4][8].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.99 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [1][2] - The total market turnover was 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3200 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The small metals and dye chemical sectors performed positively, with stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten reaching new highs [2][4] - The coal, steel, cement, and lithium mining sectors saw significant gains, while the recently surging film and short drama sectors experienced collective adjustments, with stocks like Hengdian Film and Jinyi Film hitting the daily limit down [2][3] - The cultivation diamond sector saw widespread declines, led by Sifangda, while tourism, education, and military equipment sectors also faced downturns [2][3] Notable Stocks - In the small metals sector, Dongfang Tantalum, Zhongtung High-tech, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten hit the daily limit up, with Xiamen Tungsten and Jintong Co. rising over 7% [4][5] - The paper industry saw collective gains, with Minshida rising over 8% and Yueyang Lin Paper increasing nearly 6% [7][8] - The lithium extraction sector was active, with Huayou Cobalt and Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 5%, and Lanxiao Technology increasing over 4% [9] - The oil and gas extraction sector also saw gains, with Haiyou Engineering hitting the daily limit up and Zhongman Petroleum rising by 5.9% [10] Declining Sectors - The film and television sector faced significant declines, with stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and Huace Film dropping over 10% [12][13] - The education sector also saw declines, with stocks like Huatu Shandian and Kevin Education falling over 3% [14][15] - The cultivation diamond sector experienced widespread declines, with Sifangda leading the drop [16] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is expected to improve with potential catalysts and the "Spring Festival effect" creating a favorable environment for recovery [17] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT, high-end manufacturing, and price increase chains, particularly in chemicals, construction materials, and steel [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the historical trend of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, which shows an 82% probability of rising in the three trading days before the Spring Festival, while the post-festival performance lacks a significant calendar effect with a rise probability between 40% and 60% [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in Hong Kong's internet sector, particularly in AI stocks, is attributed to global AI adjustments and various disturbances such as antitrust investigations, marketing activities during the Spring Festival, tax rate changes, and geopolitical risks [3] - The antitrust investigations are seen as beneficial for the industry by setting operational standards for major players, while the Spring Festival marketing activities are expected to broaden the customer base and enhance AI product iterations [3] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) is positioned as a valuable tool for investors, tracking major tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for nearly 77% of the fund's weight [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to enter a significant phase of AI commercialization by 2026, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF and its linked funds being key instruments for exposure to core AI assets [4] - The top ten holdings in the Hong Kong Internet ETF include major companies such as Alibaba (14.71%), Tencent (14.64%), and Xiaomi (12.29%), indicating a strong concentration in leading tech firms [5] Group 4 - For investors seeking to reduce volatility while maintaining exposure to technology, the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) is recommended, featuring a mix of high-growth tech stocks and stable dividend-paying companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The prevailing consensus among institutions is to "hold stocks during the festival," driven by historical data analysis and current market conditions, with a focus on a "stable before the festival, aggressive after" strategy [1][5][9]. Historical Data Support - Historical data from the past decade indicates a clear pattern in the A-share market of "weak before the festival, strong after," with an average return of -2.20% in the second week before the festival and a recovery to 0.53% in the last week before the festival [3][4]. - The first week after the festival shows an average return of 2.03%, with an 80% probability of an increase, while the second and third weeks yield average returns of 0.86% and 0.83%, respectively [3]. - Smaller market caps and growth styles exhibit a more pronounced reversal effect around the festival, with industries such as computer, electronics, communication, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showing the strongest post-festival rebound [3][4]. Institutional Consensus - A survey indicates that 62.16% of private equity firms prefer to hold significant positions during the festival, with 69.23% optimistic about post-festival market performance [6]. - The favored investment strategy is a "low-valuation blue-chip + technology growth" combination, with 41.18% of firms supporting this approach [6]. Market Trends and Strategies - Institutions emphasize a balanced and defensive approach before the festival, adopting a "dumbbell strategy" that combines defensive and aggressive investments [9]. - Post-festival, the focus shifts to technology growth and industry trends, with recommendations for sectors like AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [10][11]. - The "resource + manufacturing" combination is highlighted as an important foundational investment, with a focus on commodities like oil, copper, and aluminum, as well as traditional manufacturing sectors [11]. Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio that includes defensive sectors such as banking and utilities, alongside growth sectors like technology and consumer goods [11]. - For different types of funds, strategies vary, with long-term investors encouraged to maintain equity positions, while those needing liquidity may consider money market funds [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 春节配置，谁主沉浮 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告结合历史春节假期前后数据回测与当前特殊的政策资金博弈环境，对"持股还是持币"的 假期配置进行分析推荐：建议维持中高仓位"持股过节"，但需进行严格的结构优化。历史数据 显示，春节后 10 个交易日 A 股上涨概率较高，且风格往往从节前的大盘防御向节后的小盘成 长切换。当前宏观层面虽处于政策"空窗期"，但"十五五"规划预期与流动性宽松底色未变。策略 上，建议利用节前调整窗口，布局 AI 应用、人形机器人及涨价顺周期板块，以博弈节后或有可 能出现的"春躁下半场"。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 春节配置，谁主沉浮 [Table_Summary2] 1 月复盘及当前市场位置 回顾 2026 年 1 月，市场经历了从亢奋到理性的显著切换，经历了开门红（1-10 日）后，监管 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prevailing sentiment among institutions is to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, supported by historical data and current market conditions [2][6][9]. Group 1: Historical Data and Market Trends - Historical analysis shows a clear "pre-festival weakness and post-festival strength" pattern in the A-share market, with an average return of -2.20% in the week before the festival and a recovery to 0.53% in the last week before the festival [3]. - The first week after the festival typically sees an average return of 2.03%, with an 80% probability of an increase over the past decade [3]. - Small-cap and growth stocks exhibit a more pronounced reversal effect around the festival, making them attractive for pre-festival allocation [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a "stable before the festival, aggressive after" strategy, focusing on balanced and defensive positions before the festival and shifting to technology growth and industry trends afterward [9][10]. - The "barbell strategy" is commonly suggested, combining defensive high-dividend stocks with aggressive growth sectors like technology [11]. - A significant portion of private equity firms (62.16%) prefers to hold heavy or full positions during the festival, indicating confidence in structural opportunities despite market fluctuations [6]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Recommendations - Key sectors expected to perform well post-festival include technology, AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like banking and food and beverage show weaker reversal effects [4][12]. - Institutions emphasize the importance of holding quality assets and suggest a focus on sectors with strong performance potential, such as resource and traditional manufacturing [12]. - Defensive positions in consumer sectors and high-dividend stocks are recommended to balance the portfolio against current market conditions [12].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among 13 brokerage firms is to hold stocks during the holiday period, as the current policy environment, fundamental expectations, and liquidity conditions support a spring market rally [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Brokerages believe that the previous adjustments have released some risks, and the historical "Spring Festival effect" suggests a higher probability of market recovery after the holiday [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that high-frequency data and industry hotspots suggest a potential new round of increases post-holiday [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Galaxy Securities recommends a balanced approach of "lightly holding stocks during the holiday" [1] - Small-cap stocks are highlighted by multiple brokerages as having better performance in the spring market, with a focus on growth and cyclical themes [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - Dongwu Securities emphasizes three key areas for investment: overvalued technology sectors from the recent adjustment, sectors with positive outlooks such as energy storage and lithium batteries, and themes related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" including commercial aerospace, 6G, and nuclear power [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on February 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% to 27,202.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.82% to 5,461.96 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.64% to 9,226.56 points [1] - Major technology stocks saw gains, with Alibaba up 1.14%, Tencent Holdings up 0.54%, JD Group up 1.2%, Xiaomi up 0.85%, NetEase up 2.35%, and Kuaishou up 1.01% [1] - The new consumption concept stocks showed mixed results, with Pop Mart rising over 2% and Weilon falling over 2% [1] Corporate News - Pop Mart (09992.HK) expects global sales of all IP products to exceed 400 million units by 2025, with THE MONSTERS product line projected to sell over 100 million units [2] - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) has secured a contract with a leading domestic automotive brand to provide several key products, including the iPilot 4 Plus driving controller and driver monitoring systems [2] - Ruifeng New Energy (00527.HK) signed an investment framework agreement to build the largest inference computing cluster park in North China, with a total investment of approximately RMB 240 billion [2] Earnings Forecasts - Hong Kong Telecom (06823.HK) reported a 5% increase in total revenue to HKD 36.553 billion for 2025, with EBITDA growing by 4% to HKD 14.234 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 4% to HKD 5.286 billion [4] - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) anticipates revenue for 2025 to exceed HKD 2.46 billion, with gross profit expected to reach at least HKD 260 million, driven by increased uranium trading volumes [4][6] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909.HK) expects a net profit of approximately HKD 26.9 million to HKD 32.8 million for 2025, representing a growth of about 114% to 117% [4] - China Oriental Education (00667.HK) forecasts a 46% to 51% increase in net profit for 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - Several companies are actively repurchasing shares to boost market confidence, including Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), which repurchased 1.5 million shares for HKD 52.7268 million, and Geely Automobile (00175.HK), which repurchased 1.408 million shares for HKD 23.4587 million [8] - China Smart Energy (01004.HK) announced a share consolidation effective February 10, pending approval from the Stock Exchange [8] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the Hong Kong market, with optimistic market sentiment and early capital positioning [10] - Dongwu Securities indicated that while short-term challenges remain, the market should be monitored for overseas risks and domestic AI catalysts [10] - Bank of China International believes that after the recent negative factors have subsided, market sentiment is at a low point, with potential rebounds in the AI multi-modal industry chain [10]

Group 1 - The main consensus among multiple brokerage firms is to recommend "holding stocks during the festival," based on historical analysis of the "Spring Festival effect" and current economic expectations, liquidity environment, and risk appetite [2][3] - A review of nearly 20 years of A-share market performance around the Spring Festival indicates a significant "calendar effect," with indices typically starting a trend rebound about five trading days before the festival [2] - The East Wu Securities strategy team explains that the market often experiences a "down then up" pattern due to uncertainties in overseas macro events during the long holiday, leading some funds to exit the market temporarily before the festival [2] Group 2 - The Guangda strategy team believes that the current spring market is promising, with favorable policy and fundamental news expected in the coming months, although a brief period of market correction may occur before the festival [3] - The Huajin Securities strategy team suggests that the risks during the Spring Festival may be limited, citing potential improvements in economic and profit expectations, as well as a possible recovery in real estate sales [3] - The East Wu Securities strategy team highlights the need to focus on overvalued technology sectors and sectors with growth potential, such as energy storage, lithium battery supply chains, and emerging industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]