Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are intertwined, increasing the volatility of oils and fats, with the overall market moving in a volatile manner. The MPOB report had a negative impact, with inventory accumulation slightly exceeding expectations. The latest data shows a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production, and due to the recovery of Indian import demand, export demand has continuously improved, providing support for prices. In terms of biodiesel, Indonesia has cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026, but there is still uncertainty. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, which may expand the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel and cause a sharp rise in futures prices. It is expected that palm oil will move in a volatile manner in the short term [4][8][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 2.85 to 51.51 cents per pound, an increase of 5.74%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 18 to 4056 ringgit per ton, an increase of 0.45%; DCE palm oil 05 contract fell 8 to 8674 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.09%. DCE soybean oil 05 contract rose 22 to 8016 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.28%; CZCE rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 21 to 9063 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.23%. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also showed different degrees of increase. The soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 658 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton; the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 389 yuan per ton, an increase of 29 yuan per ton [4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report in December showed that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, slightly higher than market expectations; exports were 1.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. - From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 18.24% month - on - month. From January 1 - 10, exports increased by 16.4% - 29.2% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies. - Indonesia cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026. The US is advancing its biodiesel policy and is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel blending quota in early March, with the quota ranging from 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import comprehensive tariff of Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the domestic supply of rapeseed is expected to increase in the future. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.0146 million tons, a decrease of 70,200 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 55,900 tons, palm oil inventory increased by 2,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,500 tons [8][9][11]. Industry News - Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting believes that this year, crude palm oil prices may be mainly driven by demand, with an expected average price of 4100 ringgit per ton, trading in the range of 3700 - 4700 ringgit per ton. - Economists believe that Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate will enhance Malaysia's competitiveness in the global palm oil market. - CIMB Securities expects that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared. It has lowered the expected average price of crude palm oil this year to 4000 - 4200 ringgit per ton. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline by 5% month - on - month in January to 2.9 million tons, and production is expected to decline by 14% month - on - month to 1.57 million tons. - Malaysia has lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. - RHB Research and MBSB Research believe that stable production, high ending inventory in Malaysia, and Indonesia's new policy adjustments are factors supporting the industry. MBSB Research expects the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 to be 4200 ringgit per ton, and RHB Research to be 4250 ringgit per ton [13][14][15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, the trends of various oils' inventory, production, and export volume, and the spreads between different oils [18][20][30].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is showing a strong performance with the main contract for rapeseed oil opening at 8863.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 9158.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.44% increase [1] - Current market sentiment for rapeseed oil is characterized by strong realities but weak expectations, with low domestic inventories but concerns over potential increases in rapeseed and oil imports due to ongoing trade negotiations between China and Canada [2] - The international oilseed prices are supported by rising US soybean oil prices, which may reduce the likelihood of direct imports of Canadian rapeseed oil into China, leading to a shift from a weak trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation in domestic rapeseed oil futures [2] Group 2 - Oil mills are currently in a shutdown state, maintaining a destocking mode for rapeseed oil, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level [2] - The arrival of Australian rapeseed and the anticipated easing of China-Canada trade relations may increase supply pressure in the future [2] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook on the fundamentals, while the market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions affecting US soybean exports [2]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the surplus of US soybean supply, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, the sufficient global soybean supply, and the soybean reserve release, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and the recent high. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850–8150. [8] - Palm oil showed a corrective trend of rising and then falling under the influence of the rumor that Indonesia cannot implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14. The market expects the China-Canada trade relationship to ease, and China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil. This week, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend, and attention should be paid to whether there is an official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] - The spread between near and far months of rapeseed oil shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The nearby rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, the cargo rights are concentrated, and the basis quotation is firm. In terms of arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. Oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with resistance above and support below. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third - grade rapeseed oil in February was 05+800, from February to May was 05+650, and from April to May was 05+600. The quotation of rapeseed oil in Dongguan from January to February was 05+1200. The basis price of the first - grade soybean oil in the East China market was Y05+520 for spot, 05+500 from January to March, 05+480 from February to March, 05+380 from February to May, 05+360 from March to May, 05+300 from April to May, 05+240 from May to July, 05+210 from June to September, and 05+200 from July to September. The third - grade soybean oil was 05+450, and the degummed soybean oil was 05+320. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders was stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories, 05+40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil, and 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about the future market of soybean oil. For palm oil, pay attention to the implementation of the B50 policy in Indonesia. For rapeseed oil, focus on the official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] 2. Industry News - **Global Weather Report**: In late January, the temperature in Argentina will tend to decrease with increased rainfall, which is very beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. In the next few weeks, most parts of Brazil will receive near - normal or above - normal rainfall, and there may be floods in the southeastern region. Paraguay will experience cool and wet weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of January 8, the harvest of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had started, with 0.6% completed, slightly higher than 0.3% in the same period last year. AgRural expects the Brazilian soybean production this year to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. As of January 9, according to PAN, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, the largest soybean - producing state in Brazil, is higher than the average in recent years but lower than that in 2024. In other parts of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly in irrigated areas. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, etc., as well as basis price changes, spreads between different months of palm oil, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. [7][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is neutral - to - bullish, with attention on weather. Demand is bullish, inventory shows a mixed situation (palm oil is under observation, soybean and rapeseed oils are tight), and the macro and policy environment is bullish. The investment view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels, and expect soybean oil to strengthen [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral - to - bullish, and weather should be monitored. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, South American dryness may affect soybean yields, domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally, there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil has entered the traditional production - reduction season [3]. - **Demand**: It is bullish. China is in the Spring Festival stocking period, followed by the Southeast Asian Ramadan stocking period. The US biofuel RVO has an uncertain impact, and domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - **Inventory**: Palm oil is under observation, while soybean and rapeseed oils are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory is high, but the overall situation in the producing areas is not as pessimistic as expected. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn affects biofuel and oil prices. The US biofuel policy is to be released in the first quarter, and Indonesia will increase export taxes for the B50 plan [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels. The MPOB December data may be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later. Soybean oil is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and Argentine weather. The key for rapeseed oil is when the supply - side contradiction can be resolved [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on soybean oil in the single - side trade. For arbitrage, go long on Y and short on OI, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads. Before the report is released, lightly go long on the volatility of P and Y [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The content mainly presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as various spreads such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 [5][9][14][15]. 3.3 Fundamentals of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided [19][23][29]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [32][36][37]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Information on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory is given [38][43]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the Argentine soybean oil - Malaysian palm oil spread are shown [44][49]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Information on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit is provided [50][52][54]. - **Weather and Soybean Production**: Information on future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, is presented [61][64][70]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume are shown [75][79]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [89]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed in different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are shown [90][92]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is uncertain, while the US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, providing a relatively clear demand increment expectation. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. In January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [4][50] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since December, the oil and fat sector has oscillated weakly, then stabilized and entered an oscillating phase. By the end of December, on the domestic market, the palm oil 05 contract fell 94 to 8584 yuan/ton (a 1.08% decline), the soybean oil 05 contract fell 178 to 7862 yuan/ton (a 2.21% decline), and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 414 to 9087 yuan/ton (a 4.36% decline). On the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4050 ringgit/ton (a 1.75% decline), the CBOT US soybean oil main - continuous contract fell 4.03 to 48.55 cents/pound (a 7.66% decline), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 49.3 to 602.4 Canadian dollars/ton (a 7.56% decline). In the spot market, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 20 to 8590 yuan/ton (a 0.23% increase), the price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong Rizhao fell 210 to 8240 yuan/ton (a 2.49% decline), and the price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell 80 to 10030 yuan/ton (a 0.79% decline) [9] - In mid - and early December, palm oil oscillated weakly due to the production - demand logic of Malaysian palm oil. High - frequency data showed increasing production and weak export demand, intensifying the inventory accumulation expectation and pressuring the futures price. Towards the end of the month, the export data improved, and the month - on - month increase in production narrowed, leading to a continuous rebound in price. The near - term supply of rapeseed oil was tight, with limited spot price decline. However, the new - year rapeseed supply is loose, and as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the tight situation will gradually ease, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. US soybean oil oscillated and declined due to concerns about export demand, the expected high yield in South America, and the slow progress of the US biodiesel policy [10] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - The MPOB's November data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1.21 million tons (a 28.13% month - on - month decrease), and the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The report was generally bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reduction season. With the approaching of holidays, there is an expected increase in domestic stocking demand, which provides support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process [22] 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.04% month - on - month, and production decreased 34.48% month - on - month. From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased 7.44% compared with the same period of the previous month. In terms of exports, from January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period of the previous month. In December 2025, different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [30] 3.2.3. Indonesia Situation - In October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a 460,000 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 48.09 million tons, a 4.31 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, exports were 2.8 million tons, a 600,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 27.7 million tons, a 2.86 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, domestic consumption was 2.23 million tons, a 180,000 - ton month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative domestic consumption from January to October was 20.69 million tons, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, the inventory was 2.33 million tons [35] 3.2.4. Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In November 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.15 million tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 14.33 million tons, a 790,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. For different oils, the cumulative imports of palm oil from January to November 2025 decreased 1.22 million tons year - on - year; soybean oil imports increased 1.4 million tons year - on - year; and sunflower oil imports decreased 1.01 million tons year - on - year [38][39] 3.2.5. China's Oil and Fat Imports - In November 2025, China's palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 166,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 49,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports of palm oil decreased 510,000 tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased 240,000 tons year - on - year, and sunflower oil imports decreased compared with the previous year. The total imports of the three major oils in November 2025 were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.67 million tons [41] 3.2.6. Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 2.0777 million tons, a 23,300 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 201,900 - ton increase from the same period of the previous year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.081 million tons, palm oil inventory was 733,800 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons [43] 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, and the US plans to cancel the import of Chinese waste oils, cut the import of rapeseed oil and beef tallow to expand the use of US soybean oil for biodiesel [48] - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. The market unanimously expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to accumulate at the end of December, and the release of the MPOB report is awaited for guidance. In January, high - frequency data shows a continued decline in Malaysian palm oil production and a possible improvement in export demand, providing support for prices. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, Canadian rapeseed oil may re - enter the domestic market, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Overall, in January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening from loose to tight, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report expects the overall trend of oils and fats to be oscillating upward, but currently lacks strong drivers. Without positive macro - capital support, the upside potential for oils and fats is limited. It also suggests paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter due to the abundant rapeseed harvest and palm oil inventory reduction [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - CBOT soybeans are unlikely to fall below 1000 cents per bushel. If the U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, it is expected to oscillate upward. Palm oil prices are unlikely to break through 10,000 yuan per ton. Rapeseed oil will be under pressure in the first half of the year. The overall trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating upward, but the upside potential is limited. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter [8]. - The main influencing factors include South American weather, trade policies, biodiesel policies, and Indonesian palm oil production [9]. 3.2 2025 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Market Review 3.2.1 Oils and Fats Unilateral Review - In 2025, the overall trend of oils and fats was slightly upward with oscillations, showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil prices were volatile, with significant drops in October. U.S. soybean oil prices rose significantly, while rapeseed oil prices fell due to abundant supply. The market was affected by various factors such as USDA reports, U.S. biodiesel policies, and geopolitical conflicts [12][15]. 3.2.2 Oils and Fats Spread Review - The spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil changed throughout the year, affected by factors such as palm oil seasonal production, global rapeseed production, and anti - dumping investigations [20]. 3.2.3 Protein Meal Unilateral Review - Protein meal prices were volatile, affected by factors such as USDA reports, U.S. tariff policies, and soybean import volumes. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at different times [23]. 3.2.4 Protein Meal Spread Review - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal mainly oscillated between 350 - 550, with significant changes in March, April, August, and November, affected by tariff policies and anti - dumping investigations [27]. 3.3 Global Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Oilseeds - Global oilseeds are in abundant supply with variety differentiation. In the 2025/26 period, the total global oilseed production is expected to be 690.255 million tons, an increase of 5.75 million tons year - on - year. The production of soybeans decreased by 4.613 million tons, while the production of rapeseed increased by 9.274 million tons [31][32]. - Global vegetable oils are expected to see a slight reduction in inventory, while the inventory of protein meals will remain largely unchanged. In the 2025/26 period, the global vegetable oil production is expected to be 233.288 million tons, an increase of 3.732 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will decrease by 0.393 million tons. The global protein meal production is expected to be 393.578 million tons, an increase of 7.538 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will remain basically the same [35][37]. 3.3.2 Soybean Series - Global soybean production is decreasing and inventory is being reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean production is 422.541 million tons, a decrease of 4.613 million tons year - on - year. The production in the U.S. decreased by 3.296 million tons, while that in Brazil increased by 3.5 million tons, and that in Argentina decreased by 2.608 million tons [41]. - U.S. soybean production decreased, and the planting cost increased slightly. The planting area decreased by 6.2 million acres, and the production decreased by 121 million bushels. The estimated planting cost in 2026 is 678.25 dollars per acre [44]. - U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, and the export proportion is decreasing. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated crushing volume is 2.555 billion bushels, an increase of 4.50% year - on - year, and the export volume is expected to decrease by 6.73 million tons [50][54]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is increasing, and the production and export volume are expected to increase. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 177 million tons, an increase of 3.29% year - on - year, and the export volume and crushing volume are expected to increase [56][66]. - Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, but the export volume increased significantly in 2024/25 due to abundant production and reduced export taxes. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous year [70][74]. 3.3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in 2025, but exports were weak, and inventory accumulated to a high level. The production from January to November was 18.4541 million tons, an increase of 3.38% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.41% [83][87]. - Indonesia's palm oil production increased in 2025, and the inventory remained low. The production from January to September was 43.34 million tons, an increase of 11.31% year - on - year. The export volume increased, and domestic consumption also increased [99][106]. 3.3.4 Rapeseed and Sunflower Seeds - Global rapeseed production is abundant, and supply is sufficient. In the 2025/26 period, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 95.273 million tons, an increase of 9.274 million tons year - on - year. The期末 inventory increased by 2.65 million tons to 12.5 million tons [110][111]. - Global sunflower seed production decreased slightly, and sunflower oil inventory continued to be reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global sunflower seed production is expected to be 51.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons year - on - year, and the sunflower oil inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 2.28 million tons [136]. 3.3.5 Oils and Fats Demand - Global vegetable oil consumption is increasing year by year. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated consumption is 227.94 million tons, with edible consumption accounting for 71.54% and industrial consumption accounting for 28.00% [141]. - India's vegetable oil demand is increasing year by year, and the import volume is expected to be large in the first quarter of 2026 due to low inventory and Ramadan stocking demand [145]. - U.S. biodiesel production and sales decreased significantly in 2025, but the production is expected to increase in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy is still uncertain, and it may increase the demand for 1.5 million tons of soybean oil [149][154]. - Indonesia's biodiesel demand is increasing, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for 3 million tons of CPO, but it is unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The implementation of B45 may increase the demand for 1.6 million tons of CPO [158][159]. - Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio is continuously increasing, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to increase significantly. If the blending ratio increases to 16% in 2026, it is expected to increase the demand for 400,000 tons of soybean oil [163]. - The production of biodiesel in the EU increased slightly, but the use of vegetable oils decreased, and the use of UCO, animal fats, and other raw materials increased [166][167]. - The global use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is continuously increasing [171]. 3.4 Domestic Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis - The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the import volume is expected to increase in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 103.78 million tons, an increase of 6.89% year - on - year. The estimated import volume in the 2025/26 period is 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year [176]. - The domestic palm oil import volume was low in 2025, and the inventory is expected to decline [187]. - The domestic rapeseed import volume decreased significantly in 2025, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 2.4479 million tons, a decrease of 57.67% year - on - year [192]. - The inventory trends of the three major oils and fats are differentiated. As of the 51st week, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, an increase of 17.90% year - on - year; the palm oil inventory was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30.01% year - on - year; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 27.65% year - on - year [197]. - The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity [201][206]. - The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is continuously being reduced [209]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Supply: Globally, focus on whether the expected abundant South American soybean harvest is realized and whether the palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia can remain high. Domestically, focus on China - U.S. and China - Canada trade policies [213][214]. - Oils and Fats Demand: Globally, the consumption of oils and fats is increasing year by year. The growth of edible consumption mainly depends on India, and the growth of biodiesel consumption mainly depends on the biodiesel policies of Indonesia, the U.S., and Brazil [216]. - Protein Meal Demand: The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by external oilseed prices [219].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 181 to close at 4,087 ringgit/ton, a 4.63% increase; the palm oil 05 contract rose 276 to close at 8,568 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 124 to close at 7,836 yuan/ton, a 1.61% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 302 to close at 9,046 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase; the CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.84 to close at 49.2 cents/pound, a 1.74% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 17.9 to close at 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 3.01% increase [4][7]. - As the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil improves marginally, the palm oil futures price continues to rebound. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the export demand has improved significantly. With the expected support of stocking demand before holidays, the pessimistic sentiment of a large - scale inventory build - up at the end of December has eased, and the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. The news about Indonesian biodiesel is within expectations, with limited short - term actual impact. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm next year. Rapeseed oil has rebounded from an oversold level, approaching the upper pressure range. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. After the arrival of Australian canola, the pressing process is expected to start. In addition, the global supply is in a loose pattern, which suppresses the upside space [4][8]. - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed down, and the oil price continued to fluctuate at a low level. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally, with production decreasing and export demand improving significantly, leading to the continuous rebound of palm oil last week. In addition, there is expected support for stocking demand during holidays such as the Spring Festival, which may relieve the inventory pressure at the origin. The Indonesian government has reiterated the biodiesel policy, which is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year. Attention should be paid to the progress of the policy. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various contracts on December 26 and December 19, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. From December 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that the palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% [8]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased. According to different shipping survey agencies, the export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 41.25% compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, basically the same as in 2025. The government is currently testing the B50 standard, and the test cycle may last up to eight months [9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1265 million tons, an increase of 0.0079 million tons from the previous week and 0.2164 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a decrease of 0.0139 million tons from the previous week; the palm oil inventory was 0.7 million tons, an increase of 0.0473 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.303 million tons, a decrease of 0.0255 million tons from the previous week [10]. Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) expects that in 2026, the country's palm oil export volume will increase to 16.2 million tons, and the production will moderately increase to 19.7 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the inventory will gradually return to normal. In November, due to weak demand in sub - Saharan Africa and the EU, the production and export volume decreased, and the inventory reached a high level since March 2019 [11]. - The Indonesian Meteorological Agency predicts that the rainy season will return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken and end by the end of the first quarter, which can optimize the harvest efficiency and logistics of palm plantations [12][13]. - The Indonesian government may fine palm oil enterprises and miners operating illegally in forest areas 8.5 billion US dollars in 2026, which may disrupt production and bring upward pressure on global prices [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [15][28][40].

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 2025 年油脂行情回顾 | 3 | | 一、2025 | 年 1-3 月---节后交易逻辑切换，油脂呈现震荡上涨 | 3 | | 二、2025 | 年 4-5 月---油脂分化加剧，棕榈油下跌明显 | 3 | | 三、2025 | 年 6-8 月中---地缘及政策端扰动，油脂整体大幅上涨 | 4 | | 四、2025 | 年 8 月中-至今---上涨驱动不足热情退却，油脂高位回落 | 4 | | 第三部分 | 2026 年供需展望 | 5 | | 一、棕榈油：明年马印棕榈油产量仍有增量，马棕库存高企或持续至明年 | Q1 | 5 | | 二、印度明年预计增加棕榈油进口，中国需求或保持平稳 | | 11 | | 三、巴西 | B16 仍存不确定性，美国生柴方案推至明年 | 14 | | 四、全球菜籽新作丰产，国内仍受政策端扰动 | | 19 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 23 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...