Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented "triple variation" in China-U.S. relations as of 2025, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the Trump administration and China's diplomatic responses [1][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagements - Trump has expressed willingness to visit China to discuss economic and diplomatic issues, yet China has not formally responded, emphasizing the need for equal respect and formal diplomatic processes [3]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with U.S. Asia Society President Kevin Rudd signals a nuanced approach, welcoming unofficial communication while criticizing U.S. hegemonic actions [5]. - The dual communication channels established by China, involving both unofficial and official dialogues, reflect a mature and restrained diplomatic strategy [5]. Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing it of illegally imposing tariffs under the guise of a national emergency, which could have significant economic repercussions [7]. - The economic impact of tariffs is highlighted, with the coalition representing 30% to 40% of U.S. GDP, indicating that the costs of tariffs ultimately fall on American consumers and businesses [7]. - The lawsuit represents a structural conflict between federal and state powers, as the Constitution grants tariff authority to Congress, while Trump has used emergency declarations to bypass legislative processes [9]. Group 3: Future Trends in China-U.S. Relations - The article predicts three major trends in the ongoing China-U.S. competition: an escalation of the tech war, the normalization of tariff conflicts, and a restructuring of global order through China's initiatives like the "BRICS+" mechanism [11]. - China's advancements in self-innovation in areas like 5G and rare earths are expected to mitigate the effects of U.S. technological restrictions [11]. - The article concludes that if the Trump administration continues its tariff-centric approach, it may ultimately find itself isolated in the evolving global landscape [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and China despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, with Trump taking actions that suggest a continuation of the trade and technology conflict [1][3][15] - Trump's threats to increase tariffs if no new agreement is reached within 90 days indicate a strategy to maintain a tough image domestically while acknowledging the economic pressures from China [3][7] - The US's renewed restrictions on Huawei's Ascend chips reflect a continuation of the technology war initiated during the Biden administration, aiming to curb China's advancements in AI and semiconductor industries [5][9] Group 2 - The US's prohibition on international loans to Chinese companies in Colombia signals a geopolitical maneuver to counter China's growing influence in Latin America, particularly following recent cooperation agreements between Colombia and China [5][11] - The article discusses the broader implications of these actions, suggesting that the US's attempts to isolate China may be met with resistance from Latin American countries that see tangible benefits from Chinese investments [11][15] - The shift in rhetoric from US Senator Rubio, from labeling China as an enemy to a challenge, indicates a potential reevaluation of the US's approach towards China, suggesting a need for balance rather than outright decoupling [11][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of new export control regulations from the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regarding AI technology and chips, particularly focusing on Huawei and the potential impact on the Chinese tech industry [3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Export Control Regulations - The U.S. BIS has announced stricter export controls on AI chips, explicitly banning the global use of Huawei's Ascend chips, with violations leading to breaches of U.S. export control laws [3]. - The regulations include warnings against using U.S. AI chips for training Chinese AI models, indicating a broader strategy to limit technology transfer to China [3]. - The article suggests that these measures are part of a larger tech war, with potential implications for major Chinese companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, regardless of their use of Huawei chips [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The article posits that the new regulations could create opportunities for domestic Chinese chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Haiguang, as the restrictions are seen as targeting China specifically and may not be enforceable [5]. - It encourages Chinese companies to publicly support domestic chips and Huawei, framing this as a national strategy against U.S. pressures [5]. - The article highlights the need for companies to prepare for potential sanctions and to embrace domestic technology solutions, emphasizing that there is no alternative but to support local chip production [5].

Group 1 - The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, marking a dramatic shift in trade relations and exposing vulnerabilities in the US economy [1][3] - The agreement includes a phased withdrawal of tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and maintaining a 10% base tariff, while China has lowered its tariffs to 10%-45% [3][5] - The negotiations revealed the strategic importance of rare earth elements, with China maintaining strict control over their export, impacting US military and high-tech industries [5][7] Group 2 - China's negotiation strategy involved leveraging its control over 17 key rare earth metals, which effectively targeted the US high-end manufacturing sector without violating WTO rules [7] - The trade war has led to increased costs for American consumers, with a reported annual increase of $3,800 in household spending due to tariffs [5] - The ongoing competition between the US and China is expected to escalate into a tech war, particularly in the semiconductor sector, as both countries prepare for future confrontations [8][10] Group 3 - The trade agreement is seen as a temporary pause, with underlying tensions remaining, particularly regarding supply chain dependencies and the potential for a renewed trade conflict [8][10] - China's market diversification efforts are aimed at reducing reliance on the US, with a focus on strengthening ties with emerging markets [7] - The US is exploring ways to rebuild supply chains outside of China, indicating that the trade war may evolve into a new phase of economic competition [8]

Group 1 - The notion of the U.S. "choking" China's technological development is misleading, as the U.S. actions have inadvertently accelerated China's high-tech growth instead [1][2][3] - China's semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, with chip exports reaching trillions, making it the largest export product for the country [1][2] - The U.S. attempts to restrict access to certain materials have not effectively hindered China's technological advancements; rather, they have highlighted the need for China to develop its own capabilities [3][4] Group 2 - China's restrictions on materials like gallium and germanium are seen as a strategic response, which has led to a decline in U.S. production of advanced military technologies [4][5] - The lack of essential materials for advanced manufacturing in the U.S. could lead to a significant decline in its military capabilities over the next two decades [6] - The ability to produce advanced technologies is not solely based on knowledge but requires substantial manufacturing capabilities, which the U.S. currently lacks [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares withstood extreme pressure from the US tariff hikes. The market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. The market's pessimistic expectations were eased by the injection of liquidity into individual stocks by the national team [2][5]. - The US made concessions due to the sharp decline in US Treasury bonds. The game between Trump and the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was more patient. The subsequent trade and technology wars should not be overly pessimistic. With most tariff - related cards already played, the market is waiting for the government's economic - stabilizing measures [2][9]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector that has fallen significantly in the early stage. Considering the national team's approach, the index will face short - term divergence. It is suggested to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on $232 billion worth of US imported products. After China's counter - measures, the EU also took counter - actions. Dollar - related assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and US stocks experienced panic selling. Then Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions and increased tariffs on China to 125%. Overnight, the overseas market rose sharply, with the US dollar index falling first and then rising, the US Treasury bond yield falling, gold rising, and the three major US stock index futures soaring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.87%, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.16%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 4.5%. The offshore RMB exchange rate returned to 7.35. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers believed the US economy faced risks of both rising inflation and slowing growth, and it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [1][4]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the US continued to impose a 50% tariff on China, A - shares withstood the pressure on Wednesday. The national team's support expanded from the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, injecting liquidity into individual stocks. Military industry, commerce and retail, real estate, computer, and social services sectors led the gains, while only the banking and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. A total of 4,526 stocks rose and 777 stocks fell in the whole market [2][5]. 3.1.3 Important Information - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for most economies for negotiation. During the negotiation period, a 10% global tariff would still be imposed, and tariffs on industries such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum were not included in the suspension [6][7]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on 210 billion euros worth of US goods, including soybeans, to counter US steel and aluminum tariffs. US officials believed that the EU would postpone the planned retaliatory measures [7]. - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed the economy faced risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Morgan Stanley predicted that the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut would be in September, and Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession to 45% [7]. - China firmly countered with a "combination punch", raising the tariff rate on all imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%. The white paper "China's Position on Certain Issues in China - US Economic and Trade Relations" was released. The State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to introduce new incremental policies according to the situation. The Ministry of Commerce included 6 US companies in the unreliable entity list and 12 US entities in export control [7][8]. 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The US made concessions due to the US Treasury bond slump. A - shares withstood the pressure with the help of the national team, and the liquidity problem of individual stocks was alleviated. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector. The index will face short - term divergence, and it is advisable to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various futures contracts including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as relevant indicators such as basis, spread, and trading volume and open interest changes [11][12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various spot market indices and sectors, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation levels of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and sector indices [30]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors [31][32][34]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, reflecting the market's liquidity situation [49].

是恐惧，让你"煎熬后赶紧解脱"；是贪婪，让你"看对后还不上车"。要想战胜恐惧和贪婪，唯有严格执 行投资体系。 ——笔记哥《应对》 这两天美国国务卿再度访华，传说是来给我们施压不要支持北极熊的。的确，按照历史经验来说，近墨 者黑。但啥事都讲究个交换，你们也得拿出啥点诚意啊！是能停止贸易战呢？还是能停止科技战？似乎 都很难，所以最后能谈成啥也不清楚，估计还是个刚。不过，老百姓还是不希望神仙打架，否则人间就 该苦难深重了。退一步海阔天空，让三分心平气和。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 【笔记20240425— 神仙们别打了，退一步海阔天空（-资金面盘中略收紧=微下)】 资金面盘中略收紧，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行：今日进行20亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有20亿元7天期逆回 购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。 早盘资金面平稳，午后稍有收紧，3点之后恢复宽松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 4. 25) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...