Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair**: The Trump administration is considering Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, all of whom are Republicans with economic backgrounds and prior experience at the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. 2. **Divergent Economic Outlooks**: The three candidates have differing views on the U.S. economic outlook. Hassett is the most optimistic, believing Trump's policies will drive growth without rising inflation. Warsh sees the economy as fundamentally strong, while Waller aligns with Federal Reserve officials, indicating a moderate economic slowdown [5]. 3. **Policy Preferences on Interest Rates**: All three candidates generally favor continued interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate growth, while Warsh takes a hawkish stance, suggesting that balance sheet reduction should precede rate cuts [6][7]. 4. **Impact of Fiscal Policy on Bond Yields**: U.S. fiscal issues, particularly the proposed tax cuts, are expected to significantly increase the net deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields [8]. 5. **Historical Concerns on Fiscal Expansion**: Past Federal Reserve Chairs have expressed concerns about fiscal sustainability, emphasizing the need for budget balance and prioritizing anti-inflation goals during non-crisis periods [9]. 6. **Candidates' Views on Fiscal Deficits**: Warsh and Waller believe that excessive fiscal expansion is unsustainable, but they assert that debt repayment is not the Federal Reserve's responsibility. Hassett, due to his current role in the White House, has been less vocal on monetary policy [10]. 7. **Upcoming Changes in Monetary Policy Framework**: The Federal Reserve is expected to revise its monetary policy framework in late summer 2025, potentially reverting to a 2% inflation target, which could influence future rate cuts [11][18]. 8. **Differences in Current Economic Environment**: The current economic environment differs from that of 2020, with higher interest rates and elevated long-term inflation expectations, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [13][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Independence of the Federal Reserve**: Regardless of who becomes the next Chair, maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain a priority for the candidates [10]. 2. **Potential Economic Consequences of Policy Decisions**: Continuing to follow an average inflation target could lead to unnecessary cooling of the job market, potentially increasing unemployment rates [14][17]. 3. **Flexibility in Monetary Policy Operations**: The current higher interest rate environment provides policymakers with greater flexibility in monetary policy operations compared to the previous low-rate environment [16].

智通财经6月25日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在缩表方面仍有一些工作要做，缩表方面正处于 正轨。 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美债拍卖强于预期，5月美国零售弱于预期 发达市场多数下跌，美元指数小幅反弹。 当周，标普500下跌0.2%，日经225上涨1.5%；10Y美债实际收 益率下行至2.1%；美元指数上涨0.6%至98.76，人民币兑美元持平前值；WTI原油上涨1.2%至73.8美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌2.0%至3363.2美元/盎司。 美国财政部公布4月国际资本流动报告。 4月海外持有美国国债规模下降360亿美元至9.01万亿美元，其中 海外官方下降40亿美元，海外私人机构下降320亿美元。日本4月持有美债环比增长40亿美元，为连续第 四个月增加；英国环比增长284亿美元，为美债第二大持有国。 美国5月零售弱于市场预期，日央行放缓缩表。 5月美国零售销售弱于市场预期，环比-0.9%，市场预 期-0.6%，但零售控制组表现仍不弱。美国5月新屋开工环比-9 ...

Group 1: Potential Candidates for the Next Federal Reserve Chair - The three main candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher J. Waller [1][4][5] - Warsh is viewed favorably by Trump and emphasizes the need for balance sheet reduction before interest rate cuts, while Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1][7] - Waller predicts a moderate economic slowdown and supports rate cuts under specific conditions, such as rising unemployment and declining inflation [1][7] Group 2: Economic Perspectives of Candidates - Warsh believes high inflation is primarily due to quantitative easing (QE) and that the economy remains strong despite external shocks [6][7] - Hassett is optimistic about the economic outlook, asserting that tax cuts and deregulation will exert downward pressure on inflation [6][7] - Waller anticipates a slight increase in unemployment and temporary inflation spikes due to tariffs, indicating a more cautious approach [6][7] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Responsibility - The candidates generally agree on the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain independence and not intervene in government debt management [2][9] - Warsh and Waller express concerns about unsustainable deficit growth, while Hassett downplays these worries, suggesting that historical debt ceilings will be resolved [2][9][13] - The article discusses the historical context of Federal Reserve responses to fiscal expansions, noting that past chairs have often called for fiscal discipline [10][12] Group 4: Basis for Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's shift to an average inflation targeting framework aims to support employment growth in a low inflation environment [3][14] - Recent comments from Powell suggest that the current economic conditions may require a reevaluation of the emphasis on maintaining low inflation, potentially allowing for higher inflation to support employment [14][15] - The upcoming adjustments to the monetary policy framework may influence future decisions on interest rate cuts, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment goals [14][15]

有人可能不知道美联储是是个什么东西，这么说吧，它是全球一切资产价格波动的发动机。这台发动机有两个主要任务：保证美国物价稳定 （Price Stability），促进国内充分就业(Full Employment)。 美联储这个机构挺起来高大上，运作逻辑也很简单，一帮美国金融学院高材生大佬，没事了坐在一起喝喝咖啡，看看CPI、PCE这些通胀数据 距离2%的目标是不是偏差过大，评估一下国内汽油、楼市、用工成本，另外也会看下非农就业是饱和还是大量萎缩。另外，他们参考ISM、 GDP数据是否健康。 这帮人呢，有一个叫政策工具箱的东西，这玩意可以说是金融市场的"月光宝盒"，能让行情发生瞬移。他们最常见的是常规工具，比如利率 （加息、降息、维稳）、购债（OMO）、贴现窗口（向商业银行提供短期抵押贷款）、存款准备金率等。 如果经济出现红灯或者濒临ICU，美联储会动用一些非常规"核武器"，比如量化宽松（QE）、量化紧缩（QT）、前瞻性指引、紧急贷款工 具。 为什么要跟大家掰扯这些听起来很晦涩的东西?因为这是每次大行情的源头，你们了解一下，就算不参与，能看懂市场，也能获得成就感。接 下来我们重点说下这个利率工具。 最近，中东"千 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming central bank decisions, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, highlighting the potential for divergent monetary policies globally [1][4]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming decision, with a 99% probability of no change, and the earliest potential rate cut anticipated in September [4]. - Recent economic data shows signs of a cooling labor market and declining inflation, reducing the likelihood of a severe stagflation scenario [4]. - Concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, with a focus on forward guidance amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][8]. - A significant portion of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will slow its bond purchase reduction starting in April 2026, reflecting concerns over rising government debt costs [9][10]. - The Japanese government has issued warnings about rising bond yields and the need for domestic ownership of government bonds to avoid supply-demand imbalances [8]. Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank's upcoming decision is under scrutiny, with a 69% chance of reducing the key interest rate from 0.25% to 0% and a 31% chance of moving to -0.25% [11]. - The Swiss economy faces deflationary pressures due to a strong Swiss franc, which has appreciated over 10% against the dollar this year, leading to a negative CPI for the first time since the pandemic [11][12]. - The strong franc's impact on import prices is a significant concern for the Swiss National Bank, potentially forcing it to take action to address inflation [12]. Bank of England - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 4.25%, despite concerns in the labor market and ongoing inflation considerations [12][13]. - Market predictions suggest that the Bank of England may follow the Fed's path, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. This week, the report recommends the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][22]. - The Chinese economy is in a state of marginal balance sheet contraction. The liability growth rate of the real - sector and the government sector is expected to decline. The asset - side physical quantity data weakened in April, and it is necessary to focus on the duration of this economic marginal weakening [16][18]. - The US economic situation is similar to that during the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001. It is necessary to focus on whether and when the quarterly real GDP year - on - year growth rate in the US will fall below the trend level [6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7%. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then return to balance sheet contraction. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [16]. - Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 295 billion yuan, significantly lower than the planned net increase of 137.4 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 128.3 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of April 2025 was 14.8%, up from 13.9%. It is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [17]. - The money market tightened marginally last week. The one - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.46% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [2][17]. - **Asset Side** - The physical quantity data in April was weaker than that in March. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, stocks fell while bonds were flat, and the style shifted to growth dominance. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds shifted towards bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.46%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.90% [5]. - Since the two sessions in 2025, the balance sheet of the real and government sectors is expected to return to contraction after reaching a high in April - May. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds will trend towards bonds in the contraction cycle, and the equity style will trend towards value [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of May 30, the top five crowded industries were pharmaceutical biology, computer, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobile, while the bottom five were comprehensive, coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and social services. - The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry, while the top five with the largest decrease were automobile, non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and household appliances. - The daily average trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased from 1.17 trillion yuan last week to 1.09 trillion yuan this week. Environmental protection, computer, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [32][33]. - **Industry Valuation and Profit** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines. - As of May 30, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 0.92% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then fell to - 1.3% in May, while Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March rose to a relatively high level, fell significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the fourth week of May (May 26 - 30), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of May 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is only slightly favorable to equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [7][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the context of asset allocation, April is expected to mark the peak of the debt growth rates of the government and the real - sector in the year, with the balance sheet shrinking resuming in May. Considering the trend of the stock - bond cost - performance favoring bonds during the balance - sheet shrinking cycle and the 10 - year bond yield rising above the lower limit (1.7%) of the predicted range, the trading value of bonds is emerging. The position of the convertible bond broad - based portfolio will remain at 70% next week, with an 8:2 ratio of low - price (pure - bond substitution) to double - low bonds, all allocated to value - type targets [4]. - High - rated convertible bonds are currently more cost - effective. The reasons include the scarcity of alternative high - quality assets, the continuous low valuation of high - rated convertible bonds, the un - recovered concerns about credit risks in the convertible bond market, the relatively good performance of the value sector after interest rate cuts, the central bank's support for the banking system, the high - rated convertible bonds being the core allocation of fixed - income + products, and the preference of social security and insurance funds for high - rated convertible bonds [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond, Convertible Bond Market Review - The equity market fluctuated and declined last week, with the performance of large and small - cap stocks diverging and hotspots rotating rapidly. Micro - cap stocks hit a record high at the beginning of the week, and merger - acquisition and ST stocks were strong. Funds may have temporarily supported low - level consumer stocks, with large - consumer sectors such as food, beauty, and pets strengthening at the beginning of the week due to economic data but leading the decline at the weekend. From the middle of the week, small and medium - cap stocks weakened, while heavy - weight stocks, especially banks and insurance, strengthened against the trend. Trump's "Most - Favored - Nation Drug Price" proposal led to the strong performance of innovative drugs throughout the week. The potential escalation of the Israel - Palestine conflict caused a significant increase in the gold price, breaking through $3345 per ounce at the highest, and precious - metal stocks led the gains. The Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, with overseas funds optimistic about the cost - performance of Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks, and CATL rising 16% on its first listing day. The A - bond market fluctuated, affected by factors such as large banks' deposit - rate cuts, the implementation of the central bank's LPR cut, the intensive issuance of treasury bonds, and the weakening of the equity market. Overseas, the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets suffered a triple - kill due to factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Trump's fiscal - spending bill, and tariff - policy uncertainties. The US dollar index fell below 100 and oscillated narrowly at a low level, and the 30 - year US Treasury yield exceeded 5% [2]. - Convertible bonds performed significantly better than underlying stocks last week, supported by valuation. The median price of the entire convertible - bond market oscillated slightly around 120 yuan, and the conversion value declined slightly. The conversion premium rate closed at 31.2% (64% in historical percentile), the implied volatility remained stable at 26.4% (50% in historical percentile), and the median implied - volatility difference remained at - 19% (23% in historical percentile). Some industry convertible bonds saw an active increase in valuation, and even the convertible bonds rose while the underlying stocks fell, such as those in the banking, food, mining, pharmaceutical, and textile - clothing industries, mainly concentrated in low - price and inert convertible bonds, indicating that the market continues to value the bond - floor protection of convertible bonds rather than their elasticity. In terms of market sentiment, the average daily trading volume last week was 5.28 billion yuan, a 9% decline from the previous week. The trading of traditional speculative bonds such as newly - issued bonds, low - rated convertible bonds, and high - price - high - premium convertible bonds remained sluggish. Recently, the convertible - bond valuation has declined from a high level, opening up some space for bond selection. Although inert convertible bonds with valuations to be adjusted still account for the largest proportion overall, there are more double - low and equity - type convertible bonds with good elasticity in industries such as banking, electrical appliances, agriculture, non - ferrous metals, and automobiles [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - From the perspective of large - scale asset allocation, April is expected to mark the peak of the debt growth rates of the government and the real - sector in the year, and the balance sheet will shrink again in May. Considering that the stock - bond cost - performance trend favors bonds during the balance - sheet shrinking cycle and the 10 - year bond yield has risen above the lower limit (1.7%) of the predicted range, the trading value of bonds has begun to emerge. Next week, the position of the convertible - bond broad - based portfolio will remain at 70%, with an 8:2 ratio of low - price (pure - bond substitution) to double - low bonds, all allocated to value - type targets. The convertible - bond broad - based portfolio outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.04 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the convertible - bond broad - based portfolio has outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 16.16 percentage points in cumulative terms, with a maximum drawdown of 7.7% (compared to 7.5% for the CSI Convertible Bond Index during the same period) [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is encouraging financial institutions to actively use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to support effective monetary policy implementation and ensure market stability, despite current market liquidity being ample [1][3]. Group 1: SRF Adjustments - The existence of the SRF is aimed at supporting effective monetary policy and promoting market stability, reflecting the Federal Reserve's understanding of the current market environment and potential risks [3]. - The New York Fed will extend SRF operations from only the afternoon to include morning sessions, completing settlements on the same day, which is a significant step to enhance SRF effectiveness [3][4]. - This adjustment is expected to improve the efficiency of SRF usage and provide more flexibility for the Federal Reserve during the balance sheet normalization process [3][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The adjustment of SRF operations may impact short-term interest rates, as the Federal Reserve aims to manage market liquidity and avoid significant rate fluctuations [4]. - The Federal Reserve's strategy to enhance SRF efficiency is intended to reduce reliance on its balance sheet while maintaining market stability during the normalization process [4]. - The effectiveness of these strategies will depend on market acceptance of SRF and the Federal Reserve's ability to manage market liquidity [4]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in the balance sheet normalization process, with indications that money market liquidity may be tightening [3]. - As the Federal Reserve reduces reserves, upward pressure on money market rates may increase, posing greater challenges for financial institutions' asset-liability management and overall market stability [3]. - The focus will be on how the Federal Reserve balances market stability with the normalization of its balance sheet in the coming period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is encouraging financial institutions to actively utilize the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to address market liquidity challenges, despite current liquidity being ample [1] Group 1: SRF Tool Utilization - Federal Reserve officials advocate for the use of the SRF tool under economically reasonable circumstances to support effective monetary policy implementation and promote market stability [1] - The New York Fed plans to expand SRF operations from only afternoon sessions to include morning sessions, allowing for same-day settlement, which is a significant step to enhance the tool's effectiveness [1] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Balance Sheet - There are indications that market liquidity is tightening, and the Fed's balance sheet reduction may take some time to complete [1] - As the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet and lower reserve levels, upward pressure on money market rates may increase [1]