Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds faced weak demand, leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields to an 18-month high, hovering above 5% [1] - RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas noted a shift in investor perception regarding the safe-haven value of long-term U.S. Treasuries, driven by increasing risks related to government spending, taxation, trade, inflation, and growth [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has raised concerns, with projections indicating that U.S. debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current deficit levels compared to other developed nations [1] Group 2 - The Responsible Federal Budget Committee estimates that the recent tax cut plan could increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, equivalent to 10% of this year's GDP [2] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the implications of high deficits during a period of low unemployment, likening current borrowing levels to wartime financing [2] - There are warnings that unless the stock market experiences another significant downturn, the administration may not reconsider its tax cut strategy, potentially leading to a severe sell-off in long-term bonds that could impact risk assets [2]

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced stronger support for high-quality unprofitable technology companies to go public [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on May 23 [1] - The Financial Regulatory Administration is set to approve the third batch of long-term investment reform pilot projects for insurance funds, with a scale of 60 billion yuan [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is enhancing cross-border financial services for technology companies and steadily advancing the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot [1] - Xiaomi launched the flagship processor "Xuanjie O1," claiming it has first-tier performance, and officially released the YU7 model, positioned as a "luxury high-performance SUV," with the price yet to be announced [1] International News - Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization announced a visit to the U.S. for tariff negotiations from Friday to Sunday [2] - The U.S. government is considering the withdrawal of approximately 4,500 troops from South Korea [4] - Institutions reported that BYD's pure electric vehicle sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time in April [4] - Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia stocks are set to be traded as tokens on the Kraken trading platform [4]

桥水基金创始人瑞达利欧表示，应该对美债市场感到担忧。 ...

桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧：我们应该对美债市场感到担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is different from last month's situation, where the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly surged above 4.5% during a time of heightened trade war fears [2] - Current market conditions show a weakening expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the Fed may not cut rates until December, which contributes to rising Treasury yields [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.53%, and the long-term bond ETF TLT hit its lowest point since November 2023, indicating a significant decline in bond prices [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to create a $3.7 trillion deficit over the next decade, raising annual deficits to over 7% of GDP, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds [3] - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries; while some see risks due to potential debt expansion from tax cuts, others believe the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms to mitigate short-term default risks [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. has never formally defaulted on its sovereign debt, and current conditions suggest that the market may be overestimating debt risks [3][4]

分析师：4月CPI报告对美债市场来说是一份不错的报告 金十数据5月13日讯，AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示，总的来说，相 对于最近美债收益率的上升，这份CPI报告对债券市场来说是一份不错的报告，而且我们可能需要几个 月的时间才能对美国经济有一个更清晰的了解。交易前景仍然是美联储有降息空间，尽管短期内持谨慎 态度。 ...

中美贸易紧张局势的缓和，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场此前的诸多担忧。消息一经公布，华尔街大行 与利率市场交易员迅速调整策略，大幅降低对美联储年内降息的押注。从利率互换合约的数据变化中， 我们能清晰看到这一趋势：美联储今年降息幅度预计从之前市场押注的 75 个基点，显著下降至约 55 个 基点；而交易员对首次降息时间的预期，也从原本较为接近的时间点，大幅延后至 9 月份，年内降息次 数更是被压缩到仅有两次。 这一系列预期的调整，在美债市场引发了强烈震动。对货币政策极度敏感的两年期美债收益率，周一一 度最高攀升 12 个基点，重新突破 4% 大关。收益率的上升与降息确定性的下降，恰似一对 "孪生兄 弟"，反映出美债市场看涨押注的进一步减弱。究其原因，此次关税下调被市场视为对经济的有力支 持。随着经济前景的预期改善，资金开始流向风险资产领域，本周初美股等风险资产的大幅反弹，更是 直接削弱了美债的吸引力，使得美债市场的热度明显降温。 回顾过去几周，市场对美联储降息的预期本就处于不断变化之中。自美联储上周发表 5 月议息会议声 明，主席鲍威尔主张采取观望态度，以评估关税调整对通胀和经济增长的影响后，市场的降息押注便开 启 ...

Group 1 - The silver T+D market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading above 8255, opening at 8115, and reaching a high of 8255 and a low of 8115, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - The US Treasury market is under cautious sentiment due to uncertainty in tariff policies, which is pushing long-term Treasury yields higher as the market awaits specific developments in US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The upcoming auctions of 10-year (42 billion) and 30-year (25 billion) Treasury bonds are seen as significant tests for market capacity, with historical data indicating that long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2][3] Group 2 - The expansionary fiscal policy is leading to rising deficits and increasing bond supply, while trade tensions may weaken foreign investors' willingness to purchase US debt [3] - The current pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is not directly influencing long-term bond yields, which are instead being driven by global trade dynamics and supply-demand relationships [2] - The resistance level for silver T+D is identified in the range of 8360-8450, while the support level is noted between 8140-8210 [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential shift of foreign investors away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to increasing uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies and the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts a narrowing growth gap between the U.S. and other developed economies, with U.S. growth rates expected to decline to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is projected to experience a growth acceleration in 2026 [1][2] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the dollar has changed significantly, resembling emerging market patterns where stock market declines coincide with dollar weakness [1] Group 1 - Foreign investors may reduce their allocation to U.S. assets and increase currency hedging ratios, putting further pressure on the dollar [2] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at approximately $27 trillion, remains unmatched in depth and liquidity compared to potential alternatives like German or Japanese government bonds [3] - Despite rising concerns boosting the relative attractiveness of the euro and yen, the lack of comparable scale and liquidity in alternative markets makes it difficult for foreign investors to exit the U.S. Treasury market en masse [3]

每经记者 岳楚鹏 每经编辑 高涵 ①【三大期指齐跌，科技股普跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.92%、标普500指数期货跌1.07%、纳指期货 跌1.18%，苹果下跌1.51%，英伟达下跌2.25%。 ⑥【分析人士：特朗普若解雇鲍威尔或冲击美债】据央视财经报道，美国总统特朗普的盟友以及美联储 官员近日都公开发声，对近期特朗普施压美联储主席鲍威尔的行为提出了批评。美国路易斯安那州、共 和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪接受美国全国广播公司NBC采访时，更是直言认为总统无权解雇美联储主席。 有分析人士警告，如果特朗普真的采取解雇鲍威尔的激进措施，那么美债市场就可能会受到冲击。 ⑦【推迟在美国投产平价车型Model Y，特斯拉跌超3%】近日，据外媒援引消息人士报道，特斯拉推迟 了在美国制造平价版Model Y的计划。特斯拉曾承诺在今年上半年推出这一车型，以提振低迷的销量。 知情人士称，这款低价版Model Y内部代号为E41，全球首批量产原计划在美国启动，但现在预计将比 特斯拉公开承诺的时间晚至少几个月，可能推迟到今年第三季度或明年初。截至发稿，特斯拉下跌 3.82%。 ⑧【大摩重申黑石集团增持评级】近日，摩根士丹利最新研报重申对黑 ...