惠誉旗下研究机构BMI预计大幅抛售美元资产的空间有限 智通财经6月16日电，惠誉解决方案旗下的研究机构BMI预计，未来几个月，美元指数可能在95到100之 间波动。BMI首席经济学家Cedric Chehab在一份报告中写道："我们认为，关于贸易相关波动的最坏时 期已经过去，这应有助于减轻美元的下行压力"。今年1月美元被高估约15%，而目前仅被高估约5%， 多头投机仓位也已"大幅回落"。"从逆势的角度来看，这意味着美元进一步大幅下跌的空间有限"。 ...

Market Analysis & Trends - The U_S stock market has recovered from a previous flash crash, but the dollar index has fallen to a new low since 2022 [1] - The dollar index (DXY) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, with the Euro having the largest weighting at 575% [1] - Since early 2025, the dollar index has been declining, reaching its lowest level since 2022 [1] Factors Influencing the Dollar - Dollar's value is determined by supply and demand, with supply factors including the U_S trade deficit, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U_S fiscal deficit [1] - Demand for dollars is influenced by international trade settlement, central bank foreign exchange reserves, and investment in dollar assets [1] - Short-term dollar trends are primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U_S government's fiscal deficit [1] Recent Dollar Depreciation - The dollar's strength in 2024 was driven by Trump's policies, but it weakened in early 2025 due to concerns about trade protectionism and fiscal policies [2] - Market concerns about U_S governance and institutional issues are eroding foreign investors' confidence in dollar assets [2] - Some countries are reducing their reliance on the dollar [2] Future Dollar Trends - The report suggests that a complete collapse of dollar hegemony is unlikely in the foreseeable future [2] - Short-term dollar trends will be heavily influenced by Trump's policies, with potential for continued downward pressure due to trade and fiscal uncertainties [2] - The U_S economy remains strong, with positive economic data and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [3] Investment Strategy - The author believes that the dollar's depreciation pressure may be nearing its end, with potential for appreciation due to economic fundamentals and policy factors [3] - The author suggests that long-term investors should focus on the U_S's economic fundamentals and technological advancements rather than short-term policy risks [3] - The author maintains a long-term positive outlook on U_S equities and dollar assets, particularly for investors in developing countries [3]

西太平洋银行称，美国贸易法院叫停特朗普关税加剧混乱局面，这是"反复无常之处，对美元资产没有 好处"。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the shift in U.S. Treasury bond ownership, with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China reduces its stake, moving from the second to the third largest holder of U.S. debt [1][3] - Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $4.9 billion in March, totaling $1,130.8 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1] - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion to $765.4 billion, marking its first reduction of the year, which reflects a strategic shift amid rising U.S. debt yields [1][3] Group 2 - The article suggests that Japan and the UK are increasing their U.S. Treasury holdings to curry favor with the U.S., while China is diversifying its assets by increasing gold reserves, indicating a lack of trust in U.S.-China relations [1][5] - China's strategy of reducing long-term U.S. debt while increasing short-term holdings is seen as a move to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt, especially given the volatile nature of the U.S. bond market [3][5] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is viewed as a response to U.S. tariff policies, potentially impacting U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs, and may prompt other countries to reassess their own U.S. debt strategies [5][7] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of China's actions on the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that a significant sell-off could undermine confidence in U.S. assets and affect the U.S. financial system [5][7] - Trump's recent overtures towards China, including a willingness to meet with Chinese leaders, are interpreted as attempts to stabilize U.S. Treasury demand ahead of a significant $6.5 trillion in maturing debt [7] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff disputes are influencing China's decisions regarding U.S. debt, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade policy and financial markets [5][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant decline in dollar assets and the potential dangers and opportunities it presents [3][4] - The domestic market is experiencing rapid rotations among different concepts and hotspots, leading to a lack of substantial trading opportunities [3] - The overall index has shown stagnation, with notable fluctuations in small-cap stocks and merger and acquisition concepts [3] Group 2 - Precious metals have shown a slight increase, becoming a relatively profitable sector amid the chaotic market conditions [3] - The upward momentum in precious metals is attributed to the lack of other opportunities in the domestic market and the downward adjustment of dollar assets [3] - The U.S. stock and bond markets experienced significant adjustments, with the Nasdaq index falling by 1.4% and the Dow Jones index declining by nearly 2% [4]

Group 1 - In March, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing the total to $765.4 billion, marking the first time in over 20 years that the UK surpassed China as the second-largest foreign holder of US debt with $779.3 billion [1] - The reduction in China's holdings is seen as a strategy to decrease reliance on dollar assets amid the ongoing US-China trade tensions, with potential further reductions expected in April [3] - The US Treasury bond market experienced significant volatility in April and May, with yields on 30-year bonds nearing 5% and 10-year bonds surpassing 4.5%, indicating a sell-off in the market [5] Group 2 - The unusual sell-off in April raised concerns about global confidence in dollar assets, which could threaten the foundation of US financial dominance [6] - President Trump expressed a willingness to visit China to discuss diplomatic and economic issues, potentially indicating a desire to stabilize financial markets and address US debt concerns [8]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 首先来看一条新闻：穆迪这家美国评级公司对美国政府的主权信用评级进行了下调。虽然评级仍然处于 优等水平，但已经告别了最高级别的3A等级。这背后反映出的是对美国资产价值的深深疑虑：是否应 该给美国资产一个较高的评分？这一评级下调会间接导致许多资金在配置美元资产时面临加仓还是减仓 的抉择。评级下降肯定是一个负面的考虑因素。而这一评级下调的导火索，正是大家对美国债务问题的 担忧。 这个问题由来已久，这颗深水炸弹一直没有引爆，但其规模还在不断扩大，这种隐忧也会引发一系列连 锁反应。要知道，这件事情已经呼应了前几周大家看到的奇怪现象：美元资产出现"三杀"，即股、债同 时下跌。背后的原因正是美元债务问题迟迟得不到解决。 这件事情不仅外界清楚，美国决策层也深感忧虑。大家看到特朗普上台后，一个重要政策目标就是解决 或控制债务问题，以缓解美国"花钱比赚得多、入不敷出"的状况。比如，前段时间大幅调整关税，目的 之一就是增加收入，当然也有其他目的。另外，这两天大家还看到美国政府可能正在酝酿加征一种名 为"国际汇款税"的新税种。比如，许多在美国打工的人往自己国家汇钱，政府打算从中抽取5%作为汇 ...

根据2024年的数据，中国的前五大贸易伙伴分别是东盟、欧盟、美国、中国香港和日本。但我们都知道，东盟与欧盟是地区性的国际组织，并不是国家。所 以，美国仍然是中国的第一大贸易伙伴国，也是最大的贸易顺差来源国。 2024年全年，中美两国的贸易额约为6882.8亿美元。其中，中国对美国出口约5246.56亿美元，从美国进口约1636.24亿美元。简单计算一下，中国对美国的 贸易顺差高达3610.32亿美元。 我们经常比喻，中国是全球工厂、全球超市，每个国家都是我们的客户。那么，美国就是我们的最大客户。作为超市老板，我们当然希望自己的最大客户能 够保持稳定，不要一下子出现经济困难。否则，最大客户的购买力下降，超市的营业额必然受到影响。 我觉得，未来有一天，中国的经济规模一定是会超过美国的。这是百分之百会发生的事情，谁也阻止不了，不过是个时间问题。但我觉得，这个过程应该是 比较漫长的，至少也要三四十年的时间。 当然，作为中国人，我们都希望这个时间点来得越快越好。有些朋友甚至希望，美国经济能够在一夜之间就崩溃。那么，这对中国有什么好处呢？ 事实上，如果美国经济在短时间内突然崩溃，对中国产生的坏处，应该是远远多于好处的。 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 昨天晚上最大的消息来自美国央行——美联储。在最新一次的议息会议上，美联储最终宣布不降息。这 一决定比较符合市场预期，所以大家看到几大股市基本上都接受得比较坦然，没有出现大的波动。 前段时间，美国资产出现了股债汇"三杀"的局面。随之而来的问题是：美国央行有没有可能在这个时候 下场救市呢？有没有可能通过降息或者重新下场购买国债来稳定市场呢？但从目前来看，美联储还是保 持了一贯的冷静态度，并没有特别大地把这张"牌"打出去。于是，这张"牌"又再次回到了美国总统特朗 普手里。如果美联储现在不动的话，那么"解铃还须系铃人"，稳定美国资本市场的任务，一部分又交给 了特朗普。 所以昨天晚上，特朗普也在他的社交媒体上发了一条消息，说再过一段时间，也就是在今天晚上10点 （美国时间早晨10点），会开一个新闻发布会，宣布一个重大的好消息——跟一个大国达成了贸易协 定。目前来猜测，最有可能的国家就是英国。因为之前有媒体报道，英国在跟美国勾兑一些贸易政策的 时候，提出了一些比较巧妙的做法。比如，对于英国产的钢铁和汽车，设定一个配额，在这个配额范围 之内实行低关税，而超出这个配额的部分可以象征性 ...

今日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简称《褐皮书》），根据统计，在这份报告中，总共107次提到"关税"一词，与"不确定性"有关的 词汇出现89次。 随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。《褐皮书》显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定性在各份报告中普遍存在。仅有五个地区经济活动略有增长，三个地区报告经济活动基本保持不变，其余四个地区报告经济活动略有下降。 同时，各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出，企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。许多公司报告称，其供应商已发出成本上涨的通知，大多数企业 表示将计划把更高的价格转嫁给消费者。企业报告称已增加关税附加费或缩短定价周期，以应对不确定的贸易政策。 随着特朗普"认怂"，4月24日，昨夜美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.07%报39606.57点，标普500指数涨1.67%报5375.86点，纳指涨2.5%报16708.05点。、 具体来看，科技七巨头中，马斯克相关动作的影响持续扩散，特斯拉涨超5%。其他六家普遍上涨，脸书涨4%。 | 英伟达 | 102.7100 | 3.86% | 3. ...