Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1201.73 tons on August 15, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3381.70 per ounce on August 15, down 0.02%, with an intraday high of $3394.80 and a low of $3377.70 [1][2] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are rising, while concerns about tariff-related inflation persist [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and import prices increased in July, making the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank policy symposium a focal point for the week [2] - India's Prime Minister Modi's proposed reduction in consumption tax is expected to boost the economy without harming government finances, potentially alleviating the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, traders raised their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the current probability estimated at 95% [1] - Analysts noted that the moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the expectation for a rate cut in September [1] - There are indications of caution among investors due to data quality issues and upward pressure on core CPI, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may increase, the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

摘要周二（8月12日）亚洲时段，现货黄金在前一交易日大幅下挫后企稳回升，最新黄金价格交投于 3345美元附近，目前市场正密切关注即将公布的美国7月核心CPI数据，该数据可能为美联储9月降息预 期提供关键指引。 核心CPI的表现则更引人注目，扣除食品和能源后的这一指标预计环比上涨0.3%，这将是自今年1月以 来的最大涨幅，而6月仅为0.2%。 【技术分析】 昨日现货黄金在亚盘开盘后迅速向下回落击穿3370关口呈现窄幅震荡整理，午后欧盘进一步向下回落击 穿3360关口延续弱势震荡下行走弱，晚间美盘压制回落破底中阴，整体金价走势呈现极弱单边空头下行 节奏，今天金价继续关注3340一线重要支撑位置。 从4小时分析来看，今日金价上方短线阻力关注3365-73附近，短期空头弱势分界线关注3380-85关口。 周二（8月12日）亚洲时段，现货黄金在前一交易日大幅下挫后企稳回升，最新黄金价格交投于3345美 元附近，目前市场正密切关注即将公布的美国7月核心CPI数据，该数据可能为美联储9月降息预期提供 关键指引。 【要闻速递】 OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong指出："当前市场已基本消化9月降息预期，若核心CPI ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、行业要闻 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 美联储 9 月降息预期升温，宽松预期支撑铝价偏强震荡，主力报收于 20700， 上涨 0.15%。08-09 升水报 20，铝锭保持累库，现货升贴水基本持稳运行，日内 华东报-50，中原报-160，华南报-55；铸铝合金跟随沪铝震荡偏强，AD-AL 负价 差报-520，淡季新料产出减少叠加高温抑制拆解量，因此废铝货源紧张，而下游 汽车行业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - **Other Data**: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around 3404, after a previous drop of 0.34% to 3369.19 per ounce, following a peak of 3390 [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after a period of gains, particularly after weak U.S. employment data led to increased risk aversion [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen, influenced by geopolitical tensions from tariff measures by the Trump administration against countries like India and Switzerland [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - If gold maintains support at 3360, it may rebound towards resistance at 3385, with potential for further upward movement if it breaks this level [2] - The short-term strategy suggests avoiding aggressive trading and considering light positions near support levels [2] - The analysis indicates that if gold stabilizes above 3385, it could reach levels around 3390 to 3400, with strong resistance at 3416 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have rebounded slightly after five consecutive days of decline, with Brent crude rising 0.7% to $67.47 per barrel and WTI crude up 0.9% to $64.97 [5] - The market is concerned about potential increased U.S. sanctions on Russia, which has contributed to recent price drops, but upcoming high-level talks between U.S. and Russian leaders may provide some market relief [5] - The rebound in oil prices is supported by declining inventories and market speculation regarding negotiations, but long-term price direction will depend on OPEC+ production rates and geopolitical developments [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The recent trend in oil prices has shifted to a consolidation phase after three days of gains were reversed by three days of losses [6] - The MACD indicator suggests a lack of bullish momentum, indicating that oil prices may enter a new range of volatility [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions during price rebounds, with resistance levels identified at 65.0-66.0 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is experiencing a slight decline, trading around $3377, after a drop of 0.34% to close at $3369.19 per ounce, following a peak of $3390 [2] - The recent drop is attributed to profit-taking by investors after a three-day rise driven by increased risk aversion due to weak U.S. employment data [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend but is at a relatively high level, suggesting potential for a reversal; resistance is noted at $3385 and support at $3360 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have rebounded slightly after five consecutive days of decline, with Brent crude rising 0.7% to $67.47 per barrel and WTI crude up 0.9% to $64.97 per barrel [6] - The rebound is influenced by concerns over potential U.S. sanctions on Russia and expectations of high-level talks between U.S. and Russian leaders [6] - Technical indicators suggest that the oil market is in a new downward trend, with short-term resistance at $66.5-$67.5 and support at $63.0-$62.0 [7]

Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing a complex situation due to multiple factors, including profit-taking leading to a slight decline in spot gold prices, heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and geopolitical tensions arising from tariff measures by the Trump administration against countries like India and Switzerland [1] - As of the early trading session on August 7, spot gold is trading around the 3370 level, with market participants awaiting key economic indicators such as initial jobless claims in the U.S., the Bank of England's interest rate decision, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] Gold Price Trends - In the previous trading day, gold prices rose to $3385.3 during the Asian session before declining to a low of $3358.1, where a rebound occurred. The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, with prices remaining above the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend [3] - The hourly chart indicates that gold prices fell to $3364 before rising again, currently trading around $3380. The 5-day moving average is trending upwards, and both KDJ and MACD indicators suggest a bullish momentum [3] Trading Recommendations - A buy recommendation is suggested for gold around the $3367-$3370 range, with a stop loss at $3362 and a take profit target of $3385-$3390 [5] - A sell recommendation is advised for gold around the $3393-$3396 range, with a stop loss at $3401 and a take profit target of $3380 [5]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with over 90% probability for a rate cut in September according to CME FedWatch [2] - U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a weakening labor market, reinforcing market bets on a new round of rate cuts [2] - Global trade uncertainties, exacerbated by recent tariff increases signed by President Trump, continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold may have reached a short-term peak, with bearish signals emerging [3] - A downward channel has formed in the short term, indicating potential further declines in gold prices [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385-3390, while support levels are at 3335-3340 [5]