Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - **Steel**: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - **Price**: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - **Price**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - **Outlook**: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - **Weather**: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - **Price Adjustment**: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - **Project Progress**: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - **Production Resumption**: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - **Urban Renovation**: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].

Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's attendance at the U.S. Congress discussion on comprehensive tax legislation highlights significant internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding government spending, green tax policies, and social safety net projects [2] - If the tax bill is successfully passed, it may lead to a decrease in the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would be unfavorable for gold and beneficial for the repatriation of profits by overseas companies [2] - The rising pressure of U.S. debt is weakening investor confidence in the dollar, posing a threat to its credibility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has not been able to break through the resistance at $3,250, maintaining a wide trading range between $3,120 and $3,250 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in June, leading Wall Street to lower oil price forecasts [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts an oversupply of 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, while Goldman Sachs notes increased downward pressure on oil prices due to high OPEC+ production capacity and recession risks [4] - ING's commodity head suggests that OPEC+'s production increase may lead to a year-long oversupply, compounded by uncertain demand due to tariff policies [4] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated signs of weakening economic activity, with inflation data moving closer to the 2% target, and uncertainty in tariff policies potentially leading to rising inflation [4] - Technical analysis shows oil prices have struggled to break above $62.50, with a likelihood of trading within a range of $55 to $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper has been trading in a range of $4.50 to $4.68 since last week, with the adjustment phase nearing its end [5] - There is a higher probability of an upward breakout, with resistance at $4.68 and support at $4.50 [5]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher due to various favorable policies and US-China tariff negotiations but later experienced a volatile decline, closing with minor gains across major indices [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.80% to 3342.67 points, while the Shenzhen Composite, ChiNext, and STAR 50 indices increased by 0.46%, 0.57%, and 0.36% respectively, with the North Star 50 index declining by 0.46% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 150.51 billion yuan, an increase from 136.44 billion yuan the previous day [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, which is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [1] - Additional measures include increasing the quota for re-lending for technological innovation and agricultural support by 300 billion yuan each [1] Group 3 - China has officially announced negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with Vice Premier He Lifeng set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during a visit to Switzerland [2] - Despite a decline in US stock indices, futures indicate a potential rise in US stocks following the news of tariff negotiations [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.2250 after a significant rise earlier in the week [2] Group 4 - Although there are signs of policy easing and the initiation of US-China tariff discussions, the A-share market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase until more substantial positive news emerges [3] - The path to achieving results from the tariff negotiations may be lengthy, and unexpected developments during the talks cannot be ruled out [3] - The market is also awaiting the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, which have not yet materialized [3]

近日，海外基金披露持仓数据，外资投资动向浮出水面。继2月大手笔加仓中国互联网股票之后，3月海 外基金加仓比亚迪、紫金矿业等中国公司。外资机构表示，中国一季度GDP增速超预期，尽管存在关税 因素扰动，但是中国推出的财政刺激政策，有望成为强有力的对冲力量。 海外基金加仓比亚迪等 景顺亚太区（日本除外）全球市场策略师赵耀庭表示，尽管受到关税因素扰动，但是中国正推出财政刺 激政策，这有望成为强有力的对冲力量。 景顺表示，已经能够看到中国经济复苏的"萌芽"，例如3月贷款增长加速。景顺将关注更多硬经济数 据，包括国内消费数据，这也是政策制定者的重点目标领域。（记者 吴娟娟） 全球规模最大主动管理新兴市场基金之一的景顺旗下Invesco Developing Markets，其最新规模为139亿 美元，截至2月底，腾讯控股、美团为该基金的第二大和第五大重仓股；基金加仓阿里巴巴42.4%，加 仓港交所22.95%。 安联神州A股基金Allianz Global Investors Fund-Allianz China A Shares最新规模为21.89亿美元。截至2025 年3月底，其前十大重仓股为招商银行、中信证券、贵州 ...

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点，主要观点摘录如下。 国家发改委已明确表示，2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年，并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大，政府已下达2025年首批消费品以旧换新资金 810亿元。得益于该笔资金支持，消费电子产品销量在春节假期期间实现激增，国家发改委数据显示，手 机销售收入同比大幅增长182%。2024年，政府从1万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中，统筹安排1500亿元 人民币支持消费品以旧换新计划。2025年，我们预计政府将从1.3万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中安排 2000亿元人民币资金，加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新计划。 得益于2024年9月24日以来政府推出的一系列宽松政策措施，中国房地产市场再次呈现出企稳态势。一度 严重负增长的新房销售同比增速在近期出现反弹，降幅收窄接近零。部分一线城市的现房价格出现了自 2021年年中以来的最大涨幅。不过我们认为这种企稳仅限于一线城市，一些自我延续的下行螺旋仍然存 在，目前还没有出现明显的持续复苏迹象。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十 ...

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点，主要观点摘录如下。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十四届全国人大三次会议将于2025年3月5日在北京召开，2025年《政府工作报告》也将于同日公布。我 们预计政府会将2025年全年GDP增速目标设为"5.0%左右"。 政府很有可能将2025年的财政赤字率、超长期特别国债净融资额度、地方政府专项债净融资额度分别从 2024年的3.0%、1.0万亿元和4.0万亿元提高到4.0%、1.3万亿元和4.4万亿元。 上调2025年全年GDP增速预测 我们上调2025年全年GDP增速预测至4.5%，主要由于以下关键因素： 预测财政刺激政策将侧重四个方面 政府的财政刺激政策将可能会侧重于以下四个方面：1）向地方政府转移支付；2）为大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新计划提供资金；3）通过回购土地或帮助开发商完成预售房屋，来为房地产行业提供资金 支持；4）为低收入家庭提供财政支持，并为鼓励生育提供资金。 国家发改委已明确表示，2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年，并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大，政府已 ...