Economic Overview - The economic growth momentum in China has declined due to extreme weather, policy adjustments, and external factors since Q3 2023 [1] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first eight months of the year is at a record low of 0.5%, while retail sales growth has dropped to 3.4%, indicating a potential further slowdown in Q4 [1] - The impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's exports may become more pronounced in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies to stabilize growth and employment [1] Policy Measures - Analysts expect a new round of growth-stabilizing policies to be introduced in Q4, focusing on fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and boosting consumption and the real estate market [2][4] - The government has a relatively low debt ratio compared to other major economies, providing ample policy space for intervention [2] Fiscal Policy - Proposed fiscal measures include establishing new policy financial tools estimated at 500 billion yuan to support infrastructure investment, which could leverage around 6 trillion yuan in total investment [4][5] - The issuance of special government bonds and increasing funding for "two new" initiatives (equipment updates and consumption subsidies) are also anticipated to stimulate consumption [5] - Local government land use rights revenue has decreased by 4.7%, necessitating additional special bonds to support infrastructure and affordable housing projects [5][6] Monetary Policy - There is a possibility of new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in Q4 to enhance liquidity and stimulate lending [7] - The current low inflation environment allows for a more accommodative monetary policy without immediate concerns about high inflation [7] Real Estate and Consumption - The real estate sector is expected to see comprehensive support policies in Q4, including expedited loan approvals for key projects and potential tax reductions for transactions [8][9] - Consumption policies may expand to include a wider range of goods and services, with potential increases in "trade-in" subsidies to stabilize consumer spending [9]

另外，美联储于今年9月17日下调联邦基金利率25个基点，到4%至4.25%，为年内首次减息。恒指公司 引述上一轮宽松周期（即2023年8月至2025年1月）的数据指，科指当时录得39.6%升幅，而恒生综指则 上升37.5%。形容在货币宽松期间，科技股普遍录得更佳的相对表现。 智通财经APP获悉，恒生指数公司表示，年初至今，科指录得41.8%的升幅，而恒生综指则上升38.6%。 过去12个月，科指上升79.1%，对比恒生综指，同期升幅为58.8%。波动性方面，科指过去12个月的年 化波动率达40.5%，同期恒生综指则为28.1%。上述表现可说是科技指数的典型特征，即升幅更大的同 时，波动性亦有所增加。 恒指公司提到，截至今年9月17日，恒生综指有三个行业指数今年录得超过60%的升幅，包括原材料 业、医疗保健业及资讯科技业。当中，资讯科技业表现排行第三，升幅达60%，反映市场对数码和科技 相关主题的兴趣。对前述主题的需求，同样反映在追踪科指的交易所买卖产品(ETP)之上，其庞大的资 产管理规模(AUM)显示出投资者对此板块的信心延续。 恒指公司表示，于2020年7月推出科指，旨在代表30间最大且与科技主题高度相关 ...

新华财经香港9月25日电（记者林迎楠）恒生指数公司25日在网志表示，截至9月17日，恒生综指有3个 行业指数今年取得超过60%的升幅。资讯科技业表现排行第三，升幅达60%，反映市场对数码和科技相 关主题的兴趣。 恒指公司指出，截至8月31日，追踪科指的交易所买卖产品（ETP)的资产管理规模（AUM)达到343亿美 元，为其三大旗舰指数之中最高。2021至2025年期间，追踪科指ETP的AUM累升362%；目前共有29只 以科指为参考基准的ETP在美国、欧洲及亚洲13个不同的交易所上市；追踪恒生指数系列的港股通合资 格ETF有13只，其中5只追踪科指；资金的持续流入，反映国际上对港股科技行业的认可。 转自：新华财经 数据显示，年初至今，科指取得41.8%的升幅，而恒生综合指数则上升38.6%。过去12个月，科指上升 79.1%，对比恒生综指，同期升幅为58.8%。波动性方面，科指过去12个月的年化波动率达40.5%，同期 恒生综指则为28.1%。相关表现被看作是科技指数的典型特征，升幅更大的同时，波动性也有所增加。 编辑：王媛媛 恒指公司表示，美联储9月17日下调联邦基金利率25个基点，为年内首次减息。历史数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $3,759 per ounce, is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance and expectations of further monetary easing [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time since December has reinforced market expectations for continued monetary easing [1][3]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments regarding rate cuts as a "risk management" decision have further supported the outlook for future monetary loosening, putting pressure on the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia, as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, have heightened risk aversion among investors, driving them towards gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - Analysts believe that the combination of the Fed's policies and geopolitical conflicts provides a solid rationale for gold's price increase [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment remains bullish, with traders speculating that U.S. short-term interest rates could fall below 3% by the end of 2026, enhancing gold's investment appeal [3]. - Technically, gold prices have broken through the $3,700 level, with short-term support at $3,725 and potential resistance at the recent high of $3,759 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term, with both upward and downward pressures. There is potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of an immediate full - scale rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways - bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is that there are still medium - to long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term full - scale rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "sideways - bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. Although the September LPR remained unchanged, there is still potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts. The weak credit data in August, the marginal slowdown in consumption growth, and the weak inflation data have increased the expectation of macro - policies to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. With the Fed's rate cut in September and two more expected cuts this year, there is still an expectation of monetary easing in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium - to long - term. - However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Firstly, there is no high need for an immediate full - scale rate cut, which needs to be coordinated with fiscal policies. Secondly, the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged to new record highs due to concerns that the Federal Reserve may begin to ease monetary policy while the U.S. economy remains resilient [1] Group 1: Demand for Gold - Future demand for gold appears to be strongly supported in the coming months [1] - Gold is recognized as the oldest inflation hedge globally, which is expected to enhance its appeal as the Federal Reserve seems poised to initiate a new round of monetary easing [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market sentiment remains under pressure. It is crucial to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If 1.8% is confirmed as the relatively high level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic can be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk appetite is mainly reflected in the term spread premium, which may reach 50 - 60BP in extreme cases. In September 2025, the bond market is more likely to experience a weak recovery rather than a seasonal adjustment [2][9]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds is difficult to return to extremely low levels but is unlikely to expand significantly, and there is no need to refer to the historical range above 40BP before 2023 [3][14]. - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. If a 10BP policy rate cut is implemented, the central level of funds and short - term varieties will decline by more than 10BP. The performance of long - term bonds is more affected by expected pricing, and the resistance at 1.7% - 1.75% of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be significant [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market Situation in September 2025 - The bond market has not significantly recovered, long - term bond interest rates are oscillating, and the term spread is expanding. After the public offering fee new rule and the central bank bond - buying expectation emerged, the long - term interest rate rebounded after breaking through 1.8% and then maintained an oscillating state. The term spread has not stopped recovering due to the unclear impact of the public offering fee new rule on the liability side [3][9]. 3.2 Analysis of Ultra - Long Bond Term Spread - **Difficulty in Returning to Low Levels and Limited Expansion**: The ultra - long bond term spread is closely related to risk appetite, reflecting the marginal change in the household debt cycle. As the household sector's leverage ratio has entered the stable - leverage stage and the real - estate cycle has not ended, the improvement of household risk appetite is limited, so the term spread is difficult to return to the high - level range before extreme compression [14][15]. - **Uncertainty from Supply and Demand**: Although the supply of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds has increased (as of mid - September, the stock of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds over 10 years has reached 27.3 trillion yuan, and the proportion has increased from 7% in Q1 2019 to 23%), it is difficult to determine the term spread trend from the supply side alone because the demand elasticity has a greater and unpredictable impact. Historically, the term spread has compressed even when the supply increased. In the short term, the completion of ultra - long bond issuance in Q4 may reduce the spread expansion pressure [17]. 3.3 Short - Term Bond Market Recovery Drivers - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. A 10BP policy rate cut will lead to a central decline of more than 10BP in the funds and short - term varieties. The 10 - year Treasury bond has heavy chips around 1.7% - 1.75%, and the resistance to unwinding may be obvious [4][19].

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a price increase of 0.24%, reaching 106.93 yuan as of September 22, 2025 [2] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was 10.47 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.38% [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past month was 44.63 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield has risen above 1.8%, reflecting significant market fluctuations [2] - The People's Bank of China is expected to resume government bond trading operations, following a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024 [2] - Economic indicators such as weak credit data and slowing consumption growth have led to expectations of stable macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 19.415 billion yuan [3] - There has been a net outflow of 282 million yuan from the ETF recently, although there were net inflows on 8 out of the last 15 trading days, totaling 454 million yuan [3] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will announce the new Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on September 22, with the current 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged for three months [1] - A press conference on the achievements of the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be held on the same day, featuring key financial leaders [3] - The PBOC plans to issue 600 billion yuan of central bank bills with a 6-month maturity to enhance the RMB yield curve in Hong Kong [4] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, there is speculation that global central banks, including the PBOC, may follow suit, potentially leading to a second wave of market rally in A-shares [5] - The PBOC has adjusted its 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding, which is seen as a move to enhance liquidity management [6] - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are being optimized to ensure stability in the financial system, especially ahead of major holidays [6] Group 3 - The external environment, including the Fed's rate cut and trade policies, may exert downward pressure on the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the RMB [7] - The PBOC is expected to flexibly manage liquidity through various instruments to stabilize the economy and support the RMB exchange rate [7] - A report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the priority for monetary policy in the fourth quarter will focus on economic growth and employment, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [8]