Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a slight rebound against the US dollar (USD), trading at 0.6510 with a 0.18% increase, as investors await key US economic data [1] - The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia has reached a record high of 8939 points, driven primarily by the banking sector, with Westpac Bank and ANZ Bank hitting their highest levels since 2015 [1] - Baby Bunting's retail stock surged by 40.5% following better-than-expected earnings, marking its highest level since February 2023 [1] Group 2 - The US initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, below the previous value of 227,000, indicating a tight labor market [2] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, reflecting strong market expectations for a shift in monetary policy [2] - Australia's employment data for July showed an increase of 24,500 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2%, slightly below market expectations [2] Group 3 - The Australian dollar's technical analysis indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum, with the currency pair breaking below key moving averages [3] - There is a potential downside risk for the AUD/USD exchange rate, which may test the two-month low of 0.6419 if it continues to decline [3] - The short-term resistance level for the AUD/USD is at the 50-day moving average of 0.6500, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a bullish recovery [3]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 100%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut rather than the traditional 25 basis points due to weak employment data [1][2] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts, moving the timeline for the Fed's first rate cut to September, with a probability of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year exceeding 50% [2] - The recent employment report showed a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs compared to earlier estimates, reinforcing the argument for a significant rate cut [2] Group 2 - The market is now focused on the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.5% for July, down 0.1 percentage points from June [3] - The retail sales figures will serve as a critical indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with any disappointing data potentially increasing pressure for a shift in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The list of potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations within the Trump administration for leadership changes at the Fed [4][5] - Notable candidates include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Dallas Fed President Logan, among others [5] - Recent comments from Fed policymakers suggest a shift towards a more dovish stance, with some members indicating support for rate cuts due to concerns over employment and economic conditions [5][6] Group 4 - Economic analysts suggest that the Fed's decision in September will depend on further labor market weakness and moderate inflation related to tariffs [6] - Current economic conditions are compared to last year's pre-rate cut environment, with signs of cooling in the economy and potential job market pressures [6] - The complexity of the current economic environment, influenced by tariff-related price increases, may lead the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy if labor market conditions continue to deteriorate [6]

周三（8月13日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.04，跌幅0.03%，开盘价为98.06。美元近期在双重因 素博弈中维持震荡走势：一方面，美联储主席人选的不确定性令市场保持谨慎；另一方面，美国劳动力 市场边际转弱的迹象又为货币政策转向提供想象空间。 若现任理事沃勒（Waller）接任主席，市场普遍解读为"中性偏鸽"——他虽主张维持相对宽松的利率环 境，但强调决策需严格依赖数据，这可能使政策路径更趋平缓而非激进。而若另一位热门人选米兰 （Miran）意外获任，鉴于其将拥有三次FOMC会议的投票权，市场可能提前押注美联储内部将更积极 地讨论政策宽松。这种政策预期的不确定性，叠加就业市场降温但仍具韧性的基本面，使得美元在波动 中获得了支撑。当前市场正在密切关注人事变动线索，任何明确信号都可能引发美元汇率的新一轮方向 性突破。 4小时之中，美元指数前期止跌，形成区间横向运行，属于一字横盘箱体修正；承压99附近掉头向下； 目前随机指标死叉向下，偏空信号！4小时的横盘形态，再去结合随机指标的死叉，可以考虑顺势跟空 看跌向下运行。 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in investment markets is highlighted by a significant drop in international oil prices by over 5% in a week, marking the largest decline since late June, while gold prices rose by 2.69%, indicating contrasting market trends [1][4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as well as supply constraints from Swiss gold refineries reducing or halting exports to the U.S., which signals a tightening supply in the gold market [2][4] - The decline in oil prices is primarily driven by easing geopolitical risks, particularly the potential for a meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which could reduce uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside OPEC's announcement of increased production [4][6] Group 2 - The divergence in oil and gold prices reflects deeper changes in the global economic and political landscape, suggesting a potential shift in global liquidity and investment strategies [4][8] - The current market conditions emphasize the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, as the contrasting movements of oil and gold highlight the need to manage overall investment risk effectively [6][8] - Investors are encouraged to maintain sensitivity to market dynamics, as critical information often lies within seemingly minor news events, such as changes in Federal Reserve personnel and adjustments in Swiss refinery exports [6][8]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and urges the Fed to initiate a cut at the September meeting, believing that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflation [1][3] - Current investor sentiment indicates an 88.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market speculation shifting towards a potential 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, have signaled a dovish stance, advocating for a prompt rate cut [3] Group 2 - The shift in Federal Reserve officials' attitudes is largely attributed to the July non-farm payroll report, which showed a significant cooling in the labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, below expectations, and an upward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in previous months [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, further indicating labor market deterioration [3] - Upcoming key data releases, including the July CPI on August 12 and July PPI on August 14, will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, market focus should remain on Chairman Powell, who may signal a shift in monetary policy focus from inflation to the labor market at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 21-23 [4]

8月8日北京时间盘前，美元指数小幅上涨0.18%，达到98.36，美元兑日元同样走高至147.49，市场关注 点聚焦于美联储理事沃勒成为特朗普团队热门美联储主席候选人的消息。据彭博报道，沃勒已与特朗普 团队成员会面，表现出色，虽尚未与总统正式会谈，但其政策立场和背景被视为可能影响未来美联储的 走向。 这种不同节奏的货币政策预期，正引发全球资本流动的新一轮调整。美元走强可能对新兴市场货币形成 压力，而英镑和欧元则在政策信号微妙变化中寻求支撑。投资者需关注美联储人事变动的进展，以及主 要央行未来的政策路径，来判断外汇市场的下一步动向。 美元近期的走强不仅是对美联储政策预期调整的反映，也包含了对潜在人事变动所带来的政策连续性与 变革性的预判。在全球经济复苏的不确定性背景下，谁将掌舵美联储，将成为影响国际资本市场的关键 因素之一。 与此同时，英国央行宣布降息25个基点，但投票结果显示，更多决策者倾向于维持利率不变，反映出英 国央行内部对高通胀的担忧。这使得市场对英国连续降息周期的预期趋于谨慎。英镑尾盘上涨0.41%， 报1.341美元，体现出投资者对英国货币政策转向稳定的积极反应。 欧元则在消息面影响下呈现震荡走势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller, a prominent "hawk" within the Federal Reserve, is being considered as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair by Trump's team, which could lead to significant shifts in global monetary policy [2]. Group 1: Waller's Policy Stance - Waller is known for being the most steadfast hawk within the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate hikes up to 6% [3]. - He introduced the "Waller Rule," which states that interest rates must be raised if the unemployment rate falls below 4% [3]. - Waller has publicly opposed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), arguing that they pose a threat to financial freedom [3]. Group 2: Implications of Waller's Potential Appointment - Waller's hawkish stance aligns with Trump's image as a "fighter against inflation," potentially influencing economic policy direction [4]. - His appointment could serve to counterbalance current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is viewed as a guardian of Biden's political legacy [4]. - Waller has strong ties with major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, which may affect market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If appointed, Waller may accelerate the balance sheet reduction, leading to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve [4]. - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, could face stricter regulations under Waller's leadership [4]. - There may be an increasing divergence in policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, putting pressure on the Euro [4]. Group 4: Broader Context - The ongoing competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position highlights a deeper crisis of politicization within U.S. monetary policy [4]. - The independence of the central bank may be challenged by electoral politics, making the Fed a significant source of uncertainty in global financial markets by 2025 [4].

与此同时，加拿大、欧元区等主要经济体已先行一步。欧洲央行在7月降息25个基点，加拿大央行表示将"进入观察期"，日元汇率持续走强亦被视作日本可 能调整负利率政策的前奏。这种政策转向或将推动全球资金从"现金为王"重新向"风险再配置"过渡。 而Crypto市场，历来就是对预期变化最敏感的风险资产之一。以比特币为例，其历史上三轮主要上涨周期均发生在货币政策由紧转松的区间（2013、2017、 2020年）。流动性回暖背景下，市场的"投机空间"与"估值弹性"将快速打开。 刚刚过去的FOMC会议上，美联储维持利率在5.25%-5.5%不变，同时下调年内加息预期。尽管并未明确表态降息路径，但市场已经开始押注政策拐点将至。 与之对应，全球风险资产同步回暖：美股再创新高，黄金反弹，比特币短线升破69,000美元，以太坊重回3800上方。多项链上数据显示，加密市场正在悄然 蓄力。 以太坊 从鲍威尔的讲话来看，尽管核心通胀仍高于2%的目标区间，但"通胀路径向好"已经成为美联储当前研判的主旋律。6月CPI数据同比上涨3%，创下2021年以 来最低水平，PPI与核心通胀也出现同步放缓。高盛、高纬环球等机构预测，美联储可能在2024年末 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio faces significant political pressure following a historic electoral defeat, leading to a critical test of investor interest in 40-year government bond auctions [1] - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 28.65 trillion yen in new national bonds for the fiscal year 2025, despite a slight reduction from the previous fiscal year, raising concerns among investors due to Japan's high debt levels [1][4] - The total budget for the Japanese government in fiscal year 2025 reaches a record high of 115.54 trillion yen, with social security costs rising to 38.28 trillion yen and debt repayment and interest payments reaching 28.22 trillion yen, indicating substantial fiscal pressure [4] Group 2 - Market analysts express concerns that the recent election results may lead to increased upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to potential fiscal expansion [4][5] - The upcoming bond auction is expected to be influenced by the government's fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the bond market until clearer fiscal policy direction is established [5] - The volatility risk surrounding the 40-year bond auction remains, as the government may continue to pursue expansionary policies to gain support from smaller political parties [5]

2025 年 7 月以来，黄金市场在多重矛盾交织中呈现 "高波动、高分化" 特征。据搜狐网数据显示，7 月 11 日国际现货黄金突破 3330 美元 / 盎司关 键阻力位后陷入震荡，最终收于 3313.05 美元 / 盎司，国内上海黄金交易所金价同步触及 766.1 元 / 克高位。这种 "冲高回落" 的走势，折射出地缘 政治不确定性与经济数据分化的双重影响 —— 中东局势持续紧张叠加全球制造业 PMI 弱于预期，推动避险资金持续流入黄金；而美国初请失业 金人数降至近两个月低点，又引发市场对美联储降息预期的博弈。 一、趋势演进：三大核心变量重塑市场格局 货币政策转向预期分化 美联储 6 月议息会议释放 "年内降息两次" 信号，但 7 月非农数据超预期后，市场对降息时点的分歧加剧。央视新闻报道显示，尽管美联储预计 2025 年底前降息两次，但主席鲍威尔强调 "预测将取决于数据"，这种政策模糊性导致黄金短期陷入多空拉锯。值得注意的是，美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，利息支出占财政预算比重达 20%，美元信用弱化趋势下，黄金作为替代储备资产的战略价值持续凸显。 地缘风险溢价的结构性变迁 中东冲突升级对金价的影响呈 ...