Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-18 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expandsion? 中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 | 甘 青 | Gan | Qing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03124127 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0023461 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | | Cheng Xiaoqing 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulting ...

会议指出，按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量 政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。财政部门要准确把 握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，提高政策精准 性和有效性。用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振 消费专项行动。适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管 理，更好发挥政府投资带动效应，推动投资止跌回稳。加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税 收优惠、财政补贴政策。加强财政政策与金融政策协同，更好同向发力、形成合力。重视解决地方财政 困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，严禁违规新增隐性 债务。严肃财经纪律，党政机关要坚持过紧日子。健全预期管理机制，提振社会信心。要及早谋划、落 实落细明年各项财政工作，进一步提高财政宏观调控效能，有力推动经济社会持续健康发展。 会议强调， ...

2025.12. 14 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 明年国家将继续发行超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓口中的"国补"。 近日，财政部党组召开会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议提出，明年用好用足各类政府债券 资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益关联最为密切的 是消费品以旧换新政策。上述财政部会议明确了明年将继续发行超长期特别国债来持续支持"国 补"。所谓超长期特别国债，是指中央财政发行的20年及以上期限、用于特定领域的政府债券，这一 特定领域正是上述"两重"（国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力）建设、"两新"工作。 为了提振消费，中央财政首次在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金，对消费者汽车以旧换 新、购买相关家电给予财政补贴，也就是"国补"。由于这一政策有效激发消费活力，2025年中央财 政发行了3000亿元超长期特别国债资金来支持"国补"。 随着2025年即将结束，"国补"接近尾声，不少老百姓十分关心明年"国补"是否延续。而近日召开的 中 ...

此前多位接受第一财经采访的专家建议，在"国补"商品品类上，可以考虑赋予地方政府更多的权力，根 据当地消费实际扩大补贴范围。 随着2025年即将结束，"国补"接近尾声，不少老百姓十分关心明年"国补"是否延续。而近日召开的中央 经济工作会议明确要优化"两新"政策实施，释放了"国补"延续信号。此次财政部上述会议更是明确，明 年将继续发行超长期特别国债持续支持"国补"。 财政部上述会议还提出，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴 息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行动。这也意味着明年"国补"政策将继续优化。 目前"国补"针对的是商品消费，且商品范围不断拓宽。 比如根据官方文件，2024年"国补"对象主要有两类，一类是汽车报废更新，第二类是冰箱、洗衣机、电 视、空调、电脑、热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机等8类家电产品。而2025年"国补"政策进一步优化，补 贴范围明显扩大，比如将微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品纳入补贴范围，并新增手 机、平板、智能手表手环等3类数码产品等。 财政部明年发行超长期特别国债来支持消费品以旧换新。 明年国家将继续发行超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，也 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 12月12日，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安主持召开党组会议，会议指出，财政部门要准确把握明年经济 工作的总体要求和政策取向，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，提高政策精准性和有效 性。用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。支持优 化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专 项行动。（财政部网站） ...

（原标题：内需"双引擎"扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力——2025年终经济观察） 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在高度不确定性的外部环境下，由消费和投资组成的内需"双引擎"继 续推动国民经济运行保持平稳，且消费结构持续升级，投资结构不断优化，为今后释放内需潜力积蓄动 能。在受访专家学者看来，若进一步加大扩内需政策力度，内需潜力有望持续释放，更大程度发挥消费 和投资对经济增长的拉动作用。 服务消费扩容提质 在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，今年以来商品消费稳步扩大，同时旅游出行、文化体育、网上消 费持续活跃，为消费扩大注入新的动力。今年前10个月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，服务零 售额增长5.3%。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已将"居民消费率明显提高，内需 拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。尽管有效需求不足的 局面仍有待破解，但今年以来的消费结构升级与投资结构优化，将为"十五五"开局之年积蓄动能。 中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工近日表示，明年国内大市场潜力将进一步释放。居民消费能 力和消费结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a dual engine of consumption and investment in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the uncertain external environment [1][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift towards service consumption as a key growth driver [2]. Group 2: Investment Structure - Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4]. - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace, are experiencing rapid investment growth, while overall investment growth is slowing [4]. - The impact of fiscal policies, such as special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, although the immediate effects may not be realized until early next year [5][8]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing facility, indicating a shift in macro policy focus towards service consumption [3]. - The government is implementing various policies to enhance service consumption, including subsidies and support for sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism [3]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly increase the role of domestic demand in economic growth, with a focus on improving consumption rates [6][7].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 27, with a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 300 billion yuan maturing [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The central bank has shifted to net injection in the open market, ensuring ample liquidity in the interbank market, with overnight repo rates slightly declining to around 1.31% [3]. - The overnight pricing in the anonymous click (X-repo) system is at 1.28%, with supply close to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight funds using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping below 1.4% [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.01% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.65%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Government Bonds and Futures - The main contracts for government bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year contract down 0.01%, the 10-year down 0.06%, and the 5-year down 0.01%, while the 2-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.01% [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - In October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 5.5% year-on-year, while the total profit for January to October reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the allocation of 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the previous and current years, respectively [12]. - The NDRC is actively promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include more sectors and asset types [13]. Group 6: Global Macro Developments - The Japanese government plans to issue more bonds to fund an economic stimulus package, with an additional budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen (about 117 billion USD) funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in bonds [15]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its key interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations, and revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from 0.9% [15]. Group 7: Bond Market Events - Vanke bonds experienced significant declines, with "21 Vanke 02" dropping over 57% and other bonds falling by more than 40% [17]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank plans to hold a meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004" [17]. - Tianfeng Securities intends to issue up to 9.6 billion USD in offshore bonds to ensure the normal repayment of existing debts [17]. Group 8: Non-Standard Asset Risks - Recent disclosures indicate multiple non-standard asset defaults related to trust plans, highlighting ongoing risks in the market [18].

Core Insights - The State Council's executive meeting emphasizes the importance of the "Two Major" construction initiative within the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance national strategic implementation and safety capabilities in key areas [1][2] - In 2024, China plans to allocate 700 billion yuan for the "Two Major" construction, with the scale of special long-term bonds for this initiative increasing to 800 billion yuan this year, highlighting its role in effective investment [1] Summary by Category Strategic Implementation - The "Two Major" construction is positioned as a critical component of the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the implementation of national strategies and enhancing safety capabilities in key sectors [1][2] Financial Allocation - A total of 700 billion yuan is earmarked for 2024, while the special long-term bond funding for this year has been raised to 800 billion yuan, supporting 1,465 and 1,459 "hard investment" projects in the previous two years respectively [1][2] Sector-Specific Initiatives - In new urbanization, the focus is on improving urban underground infrastructure such as gas, water supply, and heating systems to enhance urban resilience [2] - Major transportation infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River, including new waterways and high-speed rail, are being actively promoted to improve the comprehensive transportation network [2] - In terms of food security, large-scale modernization projects for irrigation systems are planned to establish concentrated grain production bases [2] - For social welfare, support is provided for the construction and expansion of high schools and hospital facilities, aiming to improve educational and healthcare conditions [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The development of embodied intelligence, particularly humanoid robots, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size reaching 100 billion yuan by 2030, driven by over 50% annual growth [2][22] - There are currently over 150 humanoid robot companies in China, with more than half being startups or from other industries, raising concerns about product redundancy and market saturation [2][22] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to establish industry standards and an entry-exit mechanism for the humanoid robot sector to ensure fair competition and orderly development [3][22] - The NDRC aims to accelerate key technology breakthroughs and support collaboration among enterprises, universities, and research institutions to address industry bottlenecks [3][22] Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - The NDRC has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for hard investment projects in the past two years, supporting 1465 and 1459 projects respectively [5][10] - The infrastructure REITs market has expanded to cover 12 industries and 52 asset types, with ongoing efforts to include more sectors such as urban renewal and commercial facilities [7][15][16] Group 4: Energy and Technology Development - New energy storage installations in China have exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing over 40% of the global total, with plans to further develop hydrogen energy and storage technologies [4] - The NDRC is promoting the establishment of artificial intelligence application pilot bases to facilitate technology transfer and application in various industries [19][20]