Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the market dynamics influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the contrasting reactions in the stock market [1][12] - The article highlights the disparity in stock performance despite similar news, emphasizing that not all investors benefit equally from market movements [3][4] - It discusses the concept of "expectation difference" as a key to profitability in the stock market, where information asymmetry leads to wealth redistribution [4][5] Group 2 - The article provides an example of the recent A-share mid-term report pre-increase trend, illustrating the varying performances of companies like "Shengtun Mining" and "Qifeng New Materials" [5][7] - It points out that the stock market is driven not by concepts but by pricing power, with institutional investors manipulating stock prices based on retail investors' perceptions [7][11] - The importance of quantitative data is emphasized, showing that significant trading behaviors leave traces in data, which can reveal the true market dynamics [8][11] Group 3 - The article advises investors to focus on understanding the real implications behind major news events, rather than reacting impulsively to market trends [12][13] - It suggests that the true advantage in the market lies in the ability to analyze and interpret data effectively, rather than merely having access to information [12][13] - Recommendations for investors include avoiding blind pursuit of news, validating market sentiment with data, and paying attention to the real movements of institutional funds [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the common misconception that asset allocation is synonymous with chasing rising assets, highlighting the cognitive trap that confuses market price phases with allocation logic [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Theory - The classic Markowitz portfolio optimization theory indicates that asset allocation is directly proportional to expected returns and inversely proportional to volatility [9]. - Historical data is often used to estimate future expected returns and volatility, leading to a "chasing" effect where assets with higher past returns receive higher allocation [10][12]. - The Black-Litterman model and other improved versions of portfolio optimization incorporate subjective investor expectations, yet still exhibit a tendency to chase rising assets due to cognitive biases [13]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance - The concept of "availability bias" in behavioral finance explains why investors tend to chase rising assets, as they rely on easily recalled information rather than comprehensive data [14]. - In the digital age, the prevalence of real-time information and social media amplifies this bias, leading to potentially detrimental investment decisions [14]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Behavior - Establishing an objective analysis framework is crucial for independent judgment and contrarian investing, as demonstrated by the analysis of U.S. inflation trends [16][21]. - Recommendations for avoiding chasing behavior include distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, minimizing the pursuit of short-term performance, and diversifying asset allocation to create a richer "return stream" [23][24][25]. - Understanding the difference between style beta and alpha is essential for investors to avoid chasing funds based solely on past performance [28]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a simplified investment strategy, such as the "Snowball Three-Part Method," which emphasizes diversification across global asset classes to mitigate volatility and enhance long-term returns [29][30].

Group 1 - The unusual phenomenon in the U.S. Treasury market is highlighted, with the 5-year Treasury bond valuation at a historically high level, typically seen only during extreme periods when the Federal Reserve lowers rates to zero [3] - There is a significant divergence in the yield trends of different maturities of Treasury bonds, with the 5-year yield dropping by 60 basis points and the 2-year yield by 52 basis points, while the 30-year yield remains stable [3] - This divergence indicates a deep division in market expectations regarding future policy directions, suggesting a potential increase in the value of A-shares if such a scenario unfolds [3] Group 2 - The concept of "expectation difference" is emphasized as a key factor in financial markets, where institutional investors leverage information asymmetry to their advantage [4] - Historical examples illustrate that while retail investors may cling to surface-level phenomena, institutional investors often act based on underlying data trends, as seen during the 2015 stock market crash [4] Group 3 - Data analysis reveals that institutional investors often engage in active trading before a stock gains attention, showcasing their "first-mover" advantage [8] - Even in cases where stocks experience a downturn, institutional funds may remain active, indicating a strategy of "counter-trend positioning" [10] - Conversely, stocks that lack sustained institutional participation may underperform despite positive news, reinforcing the principle that "funding is more critical than favorable news" [12] Group 4 - The current anomalies in the U.S. Treasury market may reflect institutional investors' expectations regarding future policy changes, similar to observed patterns in the stock market [13] - Factors such as political pressure from the Trump administration, potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and implied rate cut expectations create a complex market landscape [13] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to develop their own data analysis systems rather than blindly following market news, as this can help them navigate the complexities of the market [14] - The importance of recognizing and understanding the existence of expectation differences in the market is stressed, as it can lead to more informed investment decisions [14]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed job additions significantly below expectations, leading to renewed discussions on interest rate cuts by Wall Street firms [3][5] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have increased their predictions for potential interest rate cuts, with Nomura Securities doubling the probability of four rate cuts within the year [3][5] - The current economic situation is compared to last year, but there are key differences, particularly regarding inflation trends [3][5] Group 2 - Market reactions often reflect expectations rather than reality, with poor economic data potentially leading to a bullish stock market as investors bet on Federal Reserve easing [5][13] - There is a noted disparity in information access between retail investors and institutions, with institutions often pricing in information months in advance [12][14] - Key indicators such as the three-month average job additions have fallen below 150,000, which are seen as leading indicators in quantitative models [13][16] Group 3 - The slowdown in wage growth and a significant reduction in temporary workers are additional indicators of economic trends [16] - The article emphasizes the importance of using quantitative tools to detect market movements and funding patterns, which can provide insights that are not immediately visible to average investors [14][15]

Core Insights - The performance of FOF (Fund of Funds) products has been impressive this year, with over 90% achieving positive returns [1][4] - The asset allocation approach is described as having "no optimal solution," emphasizing the need for a stable analytical framework and diversified investments to avoid common pitfalls like "chasing gains and cutting losses" [1][3][6] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The manager, Tang Jun, advocates for a multi-faceted asset allocation strategy that includes objective standards and diversified returns to mitigate risks associated with market expectations [1][6] - Tang Jun's experience in quantitative investment has shaped his ability to identify market factors and adjust asset allocations dynamically based on market conditions [2][4] - The current allocation strategy has shifted towards A-shares, reflecting a responsive adjustment to market trends, with a notable increase in A-share allocation compared to Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Group 2: Market Insights and Tactical Adjustments - The positive performance of FOF products is attributed to effective diversification strategies, particularly during stable market conditions [4] - Despite uncertainties in external environments, domestic policy support is expected to provide a solid foundation for the A-share market, leading to a stable and potentially strong performance [5] - Tang Jun has actively engaged in tactical allocations within sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries, capitalizing on growth trends and market opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Behavioral Insights and Investor Guidance - The common mistake of "chasing gains and cutting losses" is highlighted, with recommendations for establishing an analytical framework based on objective standards to guide investment decisions [6][7] - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial for avoiding impulsive trading decisions, as market consensus often serves as a contrary indicator [7] - Investors are advised to differentiate between returns driven by style beta and alpha when selecting funds, which aligns with Tang Jun's quantitative research background [7]

Core Viewpoint - The real risk faced by investors is the expectation gap between their predictions and market movements, which is highlighted by the phrase "risk is the difference between your expectations and market trends" [1] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 4,958 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan after 1,707 billion yuan matured [2] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with funding rates continuing to decline; DR001 is around 1.46% and DR007 is around 1.58% [3] - The central bank's continued large net injections have led to a slight increase in the stock market, while commodities have seen significant declines and bond market rates have fluctuated downwards [4] Market Performance - The interbank funding rates have shown a downward trend, with R001 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) and R007 at 1.63% (down 7 basis points), indicating a total transaction volume of 68,928.38 billion yuan [5] - The commodity market experienced a sharp decline, with various products hitting their daily limit down, while the bond market showed positive sentiment with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.715% [5] Social Policy Impact - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year, marks a significant breakthrough in social policy aimed at improving birth rates [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Market Expectation Gap Correction, Potential Switch in Stock-Bond Allocation" [2] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Wei Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the economic cycle is in an upward phase, similar to 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L-shaped cycle [5]. - The key to the market rally is the correction of the expectation gap. Currently, the pricing in the stock, bond, and commodity markets is weak, and the upward correction of the market expectation gap may drive the market up [6]. - With the economic expectation correction, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds. The bond yield and the stock market are expected to rise [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Economic Upward Trend in H2 2025 - The local debt resolution plan launched in November 2024 may drive the economy to recover continuously, as past debt rectification periods were followed by economic rebounds [5]. - After the digestion of policies from 2021 - September 2024 and structural transformation, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has been rising since November 2024 [5]. - The supply - side anti - involution measure proposed on July 1, 2025, is conducive to the recovery of the PPI year - on - year rate, similar to the 2015 supply - side reform [5]. Market Expectation Gap and Its Impact - As of July 22, 2025, the equity risk premium rate of the Wind All - A Index was 3.14%, at the 72.1% percentile in the past 10 years; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.69%, at the 4.0% percentile in the past 10 years; the Nanhua Industrial Products Index was at the 43.2% percentile from 2022 to the present, indicating weak pricing in the market [6]. - The market's weak pricing is based on the view that the full - year GDP target of 5.0% is easy to achieve (with H1 GDP growth at 5.3%), leading to low expectations for H2 policies. However, there is a significant expectation gap in the market's pricing of the economic recovery [6]. - The all - around policies from July 2025 are expected to gradually realize the market's expectation of economic recovery, forming a positive feedback loop for market confidence and expectations [7]. Stock - Bond Switch - The economy is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped cycle. The economic growth rate in H2 2025 is not expected to decline significantly, and with the solution of structural problems, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global equity market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, but uncertainties and policy changes remain [1] Market Resilience - The A-share market experienced volatility driven by "uncertainty" in the first half of the year, with market fears stemming more from unpredictability than from the disturbances themselves [2] - The actual interest rate is currently at a favorable level, and if it remains in the 1%-2% range, the probability of positive returns for the CSI 800 index in the next year is expected to increase significantly [2][3] Asset Allocation Insights - Chinese investors currently allocate about 12% of their household assets to stocks and funds, compared to approximately 40% for American households, indicating a significant gap [3] - The long-term investability of the Chinese capital market is improving, with an increase in stock buybacks and dividend distributions by listed companies [3] Structural Opportunities - Three main asset categories are highlighted: dividend assets benefiting from declining real interest rates, new productivity focusing on technology-driven private enterprises, and new consumer trends aligned with experiential consumption [4] - The potential for revaluation of private enterprises is emphasized, with recent policies signaling a recovery in capital expenditure and return on equity (ROE) [4] Investment Strategy - The core strategy involves focusing on long-duration assets, which can be categorized into stable cash flow types and sustainable growth types [4] - Diversification in investment is stressed, with a focus on thorough fundamental research to identify individual stocks rather than betting on sectors [7] Future Outlook - The transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to continue, with long-term investment value in the stock market gradually becoming apparent despite short-term uncertainties [6] - The relationship between the Hong Kong and A-share markets is viewed as complementary rather than competitive, with each market serving different capital flows [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of avoiding "chasing gains" in asset allocation and emphasizes the need for a scientific and objective analysis framework to make independent investment decisions [9][38]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author, 唐军, manages a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes various asset classes such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, US bonds, and ETFs focused on high dividends and electricity [5][6]. - 唐军's approach, termed "Configuration First," is based on a three-step framework: assessing credit expansion and liquidity trends, evaluating whether market expectations are excessive, and ensuring asset diversification and complementarity [7][6]. Group 2: Chasing Gains Phenomenon - The article highlights that even sophisticated models like the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory can lead to "chasing gains" due to reliance on historical data for expected returns and volatility [11][20]. - The tendency to chase gains is exacerbated by behavioral biases, such as the "availability heuristic," where investors rely on easily accessible information rather than comprehensive data [25][10]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Gains - To avoid chasing gains, the article suggests establishing an objective analysis framework that incorporates quantitative indicators and macroeconomic drivers [26][30]. - It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, as well as the need to diversify asset allocation to mitigate pressure during market fluctuations [31][34]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Investment Decisions - The article warns that consistent market expectations can often serve as a contrary indicator, suggesting that investors should be cautious during periods of high consensus [35][36]. - It also discusses the importance of recognizing the difference between style beta and alpha when selecting funds, as this understanding can prevent chasing based solely on past performance [37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market reactions to news are often driven by expectations rather than the news itself, as illustrated by the recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding interest rate cuts [1][9] - Waller emphasizes that while the employment market appears stable, there are signs of weakness in private sector job growth, and inflation is close to target with limited upward risks [2][9] - The concept of "expectation difference" is crucial in investment, where market movements are influenced by what investors anticipate rather than actual events [2][9] Group 2 - The performance of two companies, Shengtun Mining and Qifeng New Materials, highlights the disparity in stock reactions to earnings forecasts, with Shengtun benefiting from institutional investment while Qifeng did not [5][8] - Institutional investors often leverage retail investors' focus on concepts to influence stock prices, indicating that market movements are not solely based on the underlying concepts but also on pricing power [5][8] - Data analysis reveals that institutional activity precedes positive earnings forecasts, suggesting that early positioning by large funds can significantly impact stock performance [8][9] Group 3 - Waller's call for a rate cut is understood in the context that the market has already priced in the expectation of such a move, with the actual impact depending on the magnitude and timing of the cuts [9][11] - The importance of market interpretation of news is emphasized, suggesting that the real insights are often found in data rather than headlines [9][10] - Investors are encouraged to focus on data analysis and institutional trends rather than chasing news, as this approach can provide a clearer understanding of market intentions [10][12]