1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of the steel and related industries is weak, with demand expectations being pessimistic and market sentiment being low. The market rhythm may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1]. - Different varieties have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and the impact of carbon element supply and iron - water production on the market needs to be observed for further negative feedback [2][3][5]. Summary by Variety Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline at a slower pace. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and inventory also continued to decline at a slower pace. Iron - water production continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, with large supply pressure and repeated fermentation of off - season negative feedback expectations. Domestic demand in downstream industries is weak, with slowing manufacturing investment growth, low real - estate sales, and significant declines in recovery investment and new construction. The market is weak but may have fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market declined today. On the supply side, global shipments increased seasonally with room for further improvement, while domestic arrivals decreased and port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, terminal demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and iron - water production is gradually declining from a high level. Steel mills have no strong willingness to reduce production actively or replenish inventory. The short - term high iron - water production still supports real - time demand, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. It is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [2]. Coke - The coke price hit a new low this year. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. The first round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, but coking daily production remained at a relatively high level this year due to remaining profits. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders made no purchases. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [3]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price declined with oscillations, hitting a new low this year. The production of coking coal mines remained at a high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut - down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, with continuously falling prices, and terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory pressure continued to accumulate rapidly. In the imported seaborne coal market, Indian terminal acceptance of Australian coal at high prices weakened, but the trading sector strongly supported prices due to cost. The price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal decreased slightly week - on - week, and it remained significantly inverted compared with domestic coal prices. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal maintains a significant discount, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price declined significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, weekly production data increased slightly, and inventory decreased, with a slight improvement in the fundamentals. South32 Australian ore is expected to arrive at about 50,000 tons at the end of this month. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly, while silicomanganese supply increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory began to accumulate, and market expectations changed. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price declined with oscillations. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat, and secondary demand remained high. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, market trading was average, and on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [7]