智通财经APP获悉，交易员们正在降低对美联储未来数月降息幅度的预期，这一转变表明，美联储官员 们发出的混乱信息已经影响了人们对货币政策的预期。 与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期权显示，市场参与者押注美联储在2025年仅再降息25个基点，且所谓的中 性利率(即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平)高于当前市场预期。这与上周形成了鲜明对比，当时 市场对年底前降息50个基点的预期升温。 中性利率预期在美联储9月会议后小幅上升 美联储上周将政策利率下调至4%至4.25%的区间，这是该机构今年的首次降息。 此次会议之后的几天里，大量交易瞄准的利率变动幅度低于目前掉期市场所定价的约两次25个基点的变 动幅度。从更长远的时间来看，期权市场还出现了暗示中性利率接近3%的交易。 利率互换市场目前预计中性利率约为2.95%，并预计今年剩余两次会议总共降息约40个基点。 美联储官员最近几周发表的更广泛的货币政策观点推动了这种转变，交易员纷纷对冲美联储大幅降息和 降息幅度较小的情景。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰本周表示，政策目前仍过于紧缩，并主张在2025年剩余的两次联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)会议上将利率下调125个基点。而亚特兰大联 ...

The Chicago Fed introducing new labor market indicators this morning that com combine private sector data with official labor statistics for a real time view of hiring layoffs uh and other job information. And join us now Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. We How you doing, Mr.. President. It's good good to have you on. We got some new data.I'm excited. And you know why I like it. because, you know, say what you will about, you know, the big kurfuffle with the the BLS firing and all that stuff.It did high ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：美联储的通胀目标仍为2%，必须回归目标。 我 认为美联储的政策具有温和的限制性。 中性利率比当前利率低100-125个基点。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The dot plot indicates a median rate expectation of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end, suggesting a total of 50 basis points of potential rate cuts remaining this year[24] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future monetary policy, with some advocating for higher rates based on perceptions of a higher natural rate[2] Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data shows a decline in labor force participation, which may suppress potential economic growth and push down the natural rate[3] - A notable increase in the percentage of workers finding it difficult to secure jobs was observed in August, indicating potential weakness in the employment market[3] - The labor market's stagnation could mask underlying employment pressures, as many discouraged workers exit the labor force[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims have shown a rapid increase since early August, although recent data indicates some relief[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. have been recovering since early 2024, with positive year-on-year growth maintained for three consecutive months post-May[10] - Japan's CPI and core CPI fell to 2.7% in August, indicating stable inflation excluding food and energy[10] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include stronger-than-expected employment data, a rebound in inflation, and fiscal sustainability issues in major economies like the UK and France, which could lead to rising global long-term rates[28] - A strategic recommendation is to focus on long positions in 5-year U.S. Treasuries due to the anticipated downward pressure on natural rates[3]

文 | 康路 上周，美联储将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，降至4%–4.25%区间，为自2023年初以来 最低水平。在12位有投票权的理事中，史蒂夫·米兰是唯一主张更大幅度降息的人。他希望 一次性降息50个基点，比委员会的共识更为激进。 美联储当前面临两难：通胀的阴影正在消退，但核心服务价格依然顽固。GDP增速稳健， 却掩盖就业背后的结构性不平衡。降息过早可能重燃通胀，收紧过度又可能让劳动力市场快 速降温。于是，共识成为防护网。而米兰的反对票指向了另一种可能，迫使市场重新预判前 景，定价未来。 "80后"联储理事米兰是9月议息会议上唯一投下反对票的人。而且，他没有延续美联储惯 例，在利率决议之后用书面陈述投反对票的理由。2025年9月22日，他走进纽约经济俱乐 部，面对华尔街投资决策人们，用一整场演讲阐述他投下反对票的理论框架。 在演讲中，米兰认为，联邦基准利率应该在年底降到低于3%。他认为"中性利率"被普遍高 估。尽管也有其他几位理事认为中性利率应低于3%，但米兰是唯一一位认为应该快速降息 的人，"上半年数据表明动能放缓，若继续维持高利率，就业恢复可能停滞，产出缺口会扩 大。" 市场正在重新评估美联储变量。黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a bullish trend, with both domestic and international prices showing significant increases, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Precious Metals Market - As of September 23, domestic precious metals futures are all in the green, with the Shanghai gold main contract priced at 855.40 CNY per gram, up 1.99%, and the Shanghai silver main contract at 10,347.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.76% [1]. - The opening prices for the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts were 847.50 CNY per gram and 10,276.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 856.30 CNY and 10,395.00 CNY [2]. Group 2: International Precious Metals Market - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3,788.70 USD per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.21%, while COMEX silver is at 44.14 USD per ounce, showing a decrease of 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold price had a significant increase, closing at 3,781.10 USD per ounce on September 22, reflecting a 2.03% rise [4]. Group 3: Economic Influences - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggest a potential interest rate cut of 1.25 percentage points within the year, which could further influence precious metals prices positively [3]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. second-quarter GDP final value and August PCE data, which may impact future interest rate expectations and consequently gold prices [4].

米兰的观点与其他美联储官员存在显著差异。9月22日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆明确表示，美联储 进一步降息的空间有限，若通胀风险增加，将不再支持任何宽松举措。他在上周虽支持了25个基点的降 息，但强调通胀率仍比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点，过度降息可能导致公众对通胀回归目标的 信心动摇，继而引发更严重的经济代价。 这种担忧在克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的发言中得到呼应。她指出，通胀已连续四年半高于目标，且可能 持续数年，因此，美联储在撤销限制性政策时需"非常谨慎"，避免经济重新过热。 哈玛克甚至认为，当前利率仅略高于中性水平，过早放松可能使抗通胀努力前功尽弃。 尽管上周美联储宣布降息25个基点，但美联储内部对于降息存在巨大分歧。 当地时间9月22日，由特朗普新任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动 上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，未来数月应继续大幅降息保护美国劳动力市场，年内累计降息幅 度需再达125个基点。 这是米兰上周宣誓就任美联储理事后的首次政策演讲。 米兰指出，今年以来的关税政策、移民限制和税收政策，已压低了中性利率（即既不会刺激也不会拖累 经济的政策利率水平）。 ...

通过此次战略合作，OpenAI将建成并部署至少10吉瓦的AI数据中心，配备数百万块英伟达GPU，用于 构建下一代AI基础设施。消息公布后，英伟达的股价迅速转涨，一度涨超4%，刷新历史新高，总市值 逼近4.5万亿美元。 在英伟达的推动下，美股三大股指均刷新历史新高，标普500指数收涨幅0.44%，报6693.75点；道琼斯 工业平均指数收涨0.14%，报46381.54点；纳指收涨0.70%，报22788.976点。 在三大股指创新高的背景下，"恐慌指数"VIX波动率指数也上涨了4.14%。这表明，尽管大盘普涨，但 部分投资者仍在通过期权等工具进行对冲，显示出市场情绪并非完全乐观，存在一定的谨慎。 德意志银行则表示，美股上行之际黄金价格处于历史高位，这也反映出了市场的谨慎态度，黄金作为一 种不支付股息或票息的资产，其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。 新华财经上海9月23日电（葛佳明） 当地时间9月22日，美国三大股指接连刷新历史高位，市场情绪高 涨。同时，作为避险资产的黄金仍强势上行，现货金价站上每盎司3750美元，市场似乎步入了押注美联 储大幅降息的模式。 德意志分析师亨利·艾伦（Henry Allen）在 ...

美联储官员们似乎有意给降息预期降温。 博斯蒂克称，当前是政策制定者"最艰难的时期之一"，因为"两种风险（通胀、就业）都在上升"。 对于就业市场，博斯蒂克表示，目前美国劳动力市场并未陷入危机，至于其疲软程度究竟如何，目前尚无定论。 面对市场愈发激进的降息预期，多位美联储官员突然释放"鹰派"信号。其中，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计 2025年仅会降息一次。美国圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也对进一步降息表示怀疑。 这番表态显然与市场预期相差甚远，据芝商所"美联储观察"工具，市场预计美联储将分别在10月、12月各降息25个基点的概率分别为89.8%、75.4%。 有华尔街机构指出，目前美联储内部正沿着"2025年是否降息75个基点"这条线，分裂为两大观点鲜明的阵营。美联储主席鲍威尔此前也公开承认，联邦公开 市场委员会内部对后续的降息路径存在较大分歧。 美东时间9月22日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，美联储需要在未来数月大幅降 息以保护美国劳动力市场。米兰对中性利率的预估值约为2.5%，明显低于美联储官员3% ...

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]