1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond market fluctuations are mainly due to policy - related expectation changes. With the marginal easing of the "anti - involution" stance, the current bond market pressure has significantly eased [2][31]. - The adjustment of the bond VAT policy will push up the interest rate center of new bonds by 5 - 10BP, but the risk is relatively controllable. This policy adjustment does not affect the overall bond market trend, and the core logic of maintaining low interest rates to support the economy still holds. If there is no unexpected policy shock, the risk of a significant upward movement in interest rates is relatively limited. Coupled with the increased bond - allocation demand due to the reduction of the insurance predetermined interest rate, there are still opportunities in the bond market [2][31]. - In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the switch between new and old bonds after the VAT policy adjustment. In the medium - term, the fundamental performance and institutional demand determine that the bond market is generally in a positive trend. Investors can seize the opportunity to allocate assets at high points, but whether the yield can break through the previous low still depends on the monetary policy trends and fundamental data changes [3][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Redemption Mitigation and New Variables in Institutional Behavior 3.1.1 Improvement in Fund Redemption Pressure - Last week (7/21 - 7/25), due to multiple factors such as supply - demand policy efforts, positive stock market sentiment, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market adjusted significantly, and funds faced redemption pressure, showing a net selling state for all bond types. However, this situation improved significantly this week (7/28 - 8/1) [15]. - This round of fund redemptions is characterized by "short - term, large - scale, and rapid" features. The single - week net selling of cash bonds by funds was large, second only to the level after September 24 last year. With the slowdown of the stock market rally and the stabilization of the bond market this week, funds have resumed net buying of cash bonds [15]. 3.1.2 New Variables in Institutional Behavior - **Insurance Predetermined Interest Rate Cut**: On July 25, the insurance industry association announced that the second - quarter predetermined interest rate research value was 1.99%, 25BP lower than the current interest rate ceiling for two consecutive quarters. Life insurance companies have lowered their product predetermined interest rate ceilings. In the short term, this will promote premium income growth to some extent, increasing insurance's bond - allocation demand. Recently, the demand for ultra - long - term treasury bonds by insurance companies has increased significantly, suppressing the significant upward movement of yields. In the long term, as the cost of the liability side decreases, the return requirements of insurance on the asset side will also decrease, further limiting the future callback space of 30Y treasury bonds [20][21]. - **Bond VAT Policy Adjustment**: Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while the previously issued bonds will continue to be tax - exempt until maturity. From the perspective of institutional behavior, asset management institutions such as public funds still have tax advantages, which is beneficial for their phased expansion. For the bond market, a 5 - 10BP spread will occur between new and old bonds, and volatility may increase [25][27]. 3.1.3 Summary The bond market pressure has eased. The VAT policy adjustment will push up the interest rate center of new bonds, but the overall bond market trend remains unchanged. There are still opportunities in the bond market. In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the new - old bond switch and the opportunities in credit bonds. In the medium - term, the bond market is generally positive, but the yield breakthrough depends on policy and data [31]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody There is no detailed analysis content provided in the text, only relevant figure references are given [33][35]. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking 3.3.1 Fund Prices This week, the cross - month liquidity tightened. R007 closed at 1.69%, up 19BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.65%, up 15BP from last week; the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 0.84%, up 7BP from last week [4][39]. 3.3.2 Financing Situation This week, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market was 128315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% from last week. From the perspective of broad - based asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financings of 1294.4 billion yuan and 2303.6 billion yuan respectively this week [42]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior 3.4.1 Measuring Fund Duration This week, the measured duration of high - performance interest - rate bond funds in the market was 6.87, a decrease of 0.03 from last week. The measured duration of general interest - rate bond funds was 5.86, an increase of 0.02 from last week [52]. 3.4.2 "Asset Shortage" Index There is no specific analysis content provided, only figure references and index explanations are given [60][61]. 3.4.3 Institutional Behavior Trading Signals - **Secondary Capital Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][62]. - **Ultra - long Treasury Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum [64][65]. - **10Y Local Bonds**: There are trading signals such as institutional long - short difference and momentum [67][68]. 3.4.4 All - round Knowledge of Institutional Leverage This week, the overall market leverage ratio was 108.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last week. In terms of broad - based asset management, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 117.0%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from last week; the fund leverage ratio was 104.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from last week; the securities firm leverage ratio was 189.3%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points from last week [69]. 3.4.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table A comparison table of bank self - operation investment is provided, including nominal yields, tax costs, and returns after considering tax and risk capital for different investment products [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.5.1 Funds There are figures showing the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution, but no specific analysis content is provided [75]. 3.5.2 Bank Wealth Management This week, the overall market product break - even rate of bank wealth management products increased compared with last week, reaching 1.6%. There are also figures showing the weekly issuance volume and 2025 yield distribution of bank wealth management products [78][79]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking There are figures showing the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract, but no specific analysis content is provided [83]. 3.7 Broad - based Asset Management Pattern A graph shows the scale changes of broad - based asset management, including private funds, securities firm asset management, public funds, bank wealth management, insurance, trust, and fund special accounts, but no specific analysis content is provided [85].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its relationship with inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic policies in the context of the Chinese economy [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Interest Rates** - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by the results of Sino-US negotiations, unexpected tightening of funds, and rising stock markets, which collectively exert pressure on interest rates [1][2][11]. - The bond market experienced poor performance in July due to rising interest rates and market volatility, driven by policy expectations and structural policies [2][8]. 2. **Inflation and Demand-Supply Dynamics** - The potential for inflation to rise due to anti-involution policies hinges on the demand side stabilizing and supply-side contraction, but the sustainability of demand remains uncertain [1][3][4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) typically influences interest rates, but if the increase is solely supply-driven without demand support, the impact on the bond market will be limited [6][7]. 3. **Future Monetary Policy Expectations** - There is uncertainty regarding the likelihood of interest rate cuts or monetary easing before the end of the year. Without such measures, interest rates may stagnate, reducing the attractiveness of bond investments and potentially shifting funds to the stock market [8][9]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a flexible monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in September or October rather than August [9]. 4. **Economic Indicators and Market Trends** - Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates and the recent rise in the US dollar index are increasing depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, which could affect market dynamics [12]. - The bond market outlook remains optimistic despite short-term stock market fluctuations, with adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [13]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors** - The ongoing Sino-US trade discussions have provided temporary relief, but long-term uncertainties persist, which are reflected in both the bond and stock markets [11]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the need for a comprehensive analysis of the structure and duration of price increases, emphasizing that traditional industries are experiencing weak demand, which limits the ability of supply-side factors to drive overall price increases [5]. - The potential for asset scarcity is deepening, as evidenced by a decline in government bond financing year-on-year, indicating a challenging environment for investors [12].

以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 上周来看，债市情绪逐步企稳，10Y国债一度重回1.7%下方，修复此前半数跌幅，股债跷跷板对市场压制作用弱化，长债 逐步靠近此前震荡区间，无明显外部信息冲击下，债市或重回震荡行情。复盘7月债市走势，债市利空因素明显逐渐多增。 在"反内卷"情绪推动股市&商品上涨、下半月资金面意外收紧、以及部分宏观信号边际改善提升风险偏好的三重驱动下， 债市情绪受到压制。7月全月走势如下图所示。 本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本轮债市调整 自2025年2月10日起算）： （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250801） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 4, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's open market has shifted to net injection, leading to a stable yet slightly loose funding environment in the interbank market, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly rising to around 1.31% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.39% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.63%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds are as follows: - 1Y government bond yield at 1.3675% - 2Y at 1.4200% - 3Y at 1.4450% - 5Y at 1.5700% - 7Y at 1.6475% - 10Y at 1.7075% - Long-term bonds at 1.9190% [10] Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds - The recent trends and data on AAA-rated city investment bonds show various yield spreads, indicating market conditions and investor sentiment [12] Group 6: Upcoming Bond Issuances - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 60 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds on August 11 [21] - The China Development Bank will issue up to 34 billion yuan of three fixed-rate bonds on August 5 [21] - Ant Financial is starting the subscription for a 20 billion yuan, 3-year financial bond, with a subscription range of 1.7%-2.4% [21]

新华财经北京8月4日电（王菁）债市周一（8月4日）走势反复，上周修复行情并未得到平稳延续，市场 对国债税率调整的预期仍在"摇摆"，长债午后率先调整，国债期货主力合约下探后回升至平盘附近，银 行间现券收益率上行1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放490亿元，资金利率月初普遍回落。 机构认为，虽然基本面和资产荒的大格局决定债市总体向好，调整空间有限。但也需要看到，随着票息 不断下行，市场行为的演变导致市场脆弱性在上升。如果其他市场涨势温和，并且需求继续放缓，货币 宽松预期将提升，利率有望再创新低。 【行情跟踪】 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月1日，欧债收益率收盘涨跌不一，10年期英债收益率涨1.3BP报4.577%， 10年期法债收益率跌0.2BP报3.346%，10年期德债收益率涨2BPs报2.710%，10年期意债收益率涨0.6BP 报3.542%，10年期西债收益率涨4.7BPs报3.272%。 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.08%报119.190，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.470，5年 期主力合约跌0.01%报105.715，2年期主力合约持平于102.352。 银行间主要利率债收益率午 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic indicators and policy changes have led to a recovery in the bond market, with a notable decline in bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, which fell to approximately 1.70% [1][4][6]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields across various maturities from July 25 to August 1, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.65 basis points [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds totaled 672.435 billion yuan across 92 bonds, with significant demand for a 50-year special government bond issued at a competitive rate [8][9]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing index was at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points [19]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12]. Policy Changes - Starting August 8, a value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which may lead to a short-term boost in bond market activity but could also shift funds towards credit bonds in the long term [1][20]. - The Central Bank conducted a total of 16.632 billion yuan in reverse repos during the week, maintaining liquidity in the market [15][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the new VAT on bond interest may lead to higher issuance rates for new bonds, creating a yield spread between new and existing bonds [21]. - Financial institutions anticipate continued monetary easing, with potential rate cuts expected to support the bond market, projecting that the 10-year government bond yield could trend towards 1.5% [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The capital rate in July continued to decline, and the capital market was relatively friendly. It is expected that the capital rate in August will likely maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary of July Review - Most term capital rates declined in July. The operating centers of DR007 and DR014 decreased by 6bp and 8bp respectively, and those of R001, R007, and R014 decreased by 4bp, 10bp, and 12bp respectively. The deviation of DR007 from the policy rate also narrowed [2][12] - The number of days when DR007 dropped below "policy rate + 10bp" increased significantly in July, rising from 5% in previous months to 45% [2][13] - The central bank continued to support the capital market in July. The total capital injection through reverse repurchase, MLF, and outright reverse repurchase was 48.8 billion, with the net injection scale being the second - highest in the same period since 2018. The capital injection during the tax period was the highest in the same period since 2018, and a large - scale reverse repurchase was carried out after the unexpected tightening of capital rates on July 24 [2][14] - The rapid decline in the bill rediscount rate may indicate poor credit demand in July. Banks may use bill financing to increase credit scale, which reduces the consumption of excess reserves and benefits the capital market [3][19] - The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated. The R007 - DR007 spread reached a new low in the same period since 2019 [21] Group 4: Summary of August Outlook - The market's expectation for further loosening of the capital market in the future is not strong, but the capital rate in August may still maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [4][6] - Whether the capital market will experience "secondary tightening" is crucial for the bond market. The current bond market adjustment is mainly driven by price increase expectations. If the capital follows and tightens, it will form an additional negative factor [4][32] - Historically, commodity price increases do not necessarily lead to synchronous increases in capital prices. There were cases in 2017, 2018, and 2021 where the building materials composite index rose while the capital rate remained flat or declined [4][33] - The current social financing and exchange rate situations are different from those in the first quarter. Social financing is likely to decline in the second half of the year, and the exchange rate pressure has significantly eased [5][39] - The PMI indicates that the current fundamentals are weaker than those in the first quarter. Since 2024, the capital rate has been more sensitive to fundamental changes. The recent decline in high - frequency fundamental signals suggests that there is no upward risk for the capital rate [5][43] - The net financing pressure of government bonds in August will increase slightly compared to July, but the overall liquidity gap will narrow. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs of maturing monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in August will decline [44][47]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating a significant contraction and falling below market expectations of 49.6%[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1% from 50.5%, while the composite PMI output index fell to 50.2%[2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders fell below the expansion threshold, with new export orders declining by 0.6 percentage points, marking a four-month low[5] - The production index showed a notable decline but remained in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing production activity despite weakening demand[3] Price and Cost Pressures - Major raw material purchase prices surged, leading to a significant increase in factory prices, although the increase in factory prices lagged behind raw material costs, creating a record price gap for the year[7] - The supply chain faced pressures as the supplier delivery time index slightly increased, indicating stable logistics efficiency amidst rising costs[3] Inventory and Procurement Trends - Finished goods inventory saw a substantial decrease, reflecting a shift from passive to active inventory reduction strategies by companies due to high costs and weak demand[8] - Procurement volumes dropped significantly, entering a contraction phase as companies adjusted their purchasing strategies in response to declining orders[5] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while consumer goods PMI dropped to 49.5%, indicating a contraction in consumer demand[4] - Large enterprises experienced a decline in PMI, while medium-sized enterprises showed a slight recovery, highlighting a growing disparity among different business sizes[4] Future Outlook - The July PMI data reversed the optimistic expectations from June, indicating a retreat in demand, inventory cycles, and industry dynamics[10] - The bond market is expected to reflect these economic realities, with the ten-year government bond yield showing an upward trend despite the contraction in manufacturing PMI[12]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...