Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors, particularly focusing on interest rates, government debt supply, and the impact of U.S.-China relations on the market [1][2][3][5][8]. Key Points and Arguments Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Current funding rates are inverted compared to bond market rates, raising market concerns; however, historical experience suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy in the face of uncertainty is advisable [1][3][4]. - The central bank has signaled a direction of easing through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating that even without immediate further easing, hesitation should be avoided to prevent missing opportunities [1][4][15]. - The overall view for the bond market in May remains bullish despite a lack of immediate easing signals; historical trends show that May typically sees downward movement in bond markets, except in specific years due to various economic factors [2][13]. U.S.-China Relations - Uncertainty in U.S.-China relations continues to exert pressure on the market; recent comments from Trump about potential tariff reductions should not be overestimated, as substantial progress in negotiations is still lacking [5][7][8]. - The trade negotiations have not yielded significant breakthroughs, and the ongoing trade war initiated by the U.S. requires more time for resolution [5][7][8]. Domestic Economic Conditions - Internal macro and micro pressures are becoming more evident, but the likelihood of the central bank returning to a tight funding state is low; thus, maintaining a bullish outlook is deemed more rational [6][10]. - Domestic policies have been adjusted to support enterprises, but these measures have not exceeded expectations, indicating a stable but cautious approach to economic management [8][9]. Government Debt Supply - April saw a peak in government debt supply, with total issuance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, but net financing was relatively low due to high maturities; May is expected to see a rebound in net financing to approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [11]. - The impact of government debt supply on the bond market is contingent on the central bank's cooperation, which is likely to increase amid rising uncertainties [11][12]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The primary drivers of interest rate declines since March have shifted to non-bank institutions, with a stable liability side supporting continued bullish strategies in the bond market [12][15]. - The current investment strategy should focus on long-duration investments, leveraging the positive signals from the central bank to maintain a bullish stance [15][16]. Predictions and Recommendations - Predictions regarding market points should be flexible; reliance on preset points may hinder effective operations, as market dynamics can lead to unexpected movements [17]. - The overall sentiment for the bond market remains optimistic, provided that no significant negative changes occur in credit, government debt, or other asset classes [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - High-frequency data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariffs and trade friction, indicating that the negative effects may manifest gradually [9][10]. - The production side has shown resilience, but demand indicators, particularly in new housing sales, have been weaker, necessitating close monitoring of shipping metrics [10].

在2024年底债市走出快牛后，2025年一季度利率出现了剧烈的调整；美国关税风波开启后，利率再次快 速震荡向下。随着对关税政策和预期的反复博弈，股和债都在波动中反复寻找相对均衡的点位，但基本 面方面外贸带来的冲击比较现实，国内经济以新兴产业为引领，依赖传统城投和地产等融资相对冗余行 业的模式逐渐淡去。在内外部现在的背景下，央行的货币政策可能更被需要，其进一步宽松措施的必要 性也更强，但其将综合考虑时代背景和宏观经济整体，节奏并不确定。二季度，重要期限收益率或有突 破前低的可能性，但波动仍将持续存在，利率风险仍需要重视。 一季度，在经济尚未明显改善的情况下，央行货币政策定力相对较强，货币市场资金成本相对较高。监 管或有更多综合因素的考虑，包括年初稳定汇率的需求，前期关税预期并未如后来如此强烈，小阳春数 据有亮点，权益市场在科技股带动下情绪较强等。但是，货币政策的支持性立场始终明确，后续更强的 货币投放可能如市场预期，海外冲击带来国内风险较快提升，国内财政政策加码后对更多货币支持的需 要，股市、楼市等风险的累积和集中释放。目前来看，由于美国的强硬态度，关税问题短期无法解决， 相应对冲政策也将越来越重要。 关税政策 ...

截至2025年5月6日 10:27，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.51元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月30日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.33%，成交4435.83万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交17.48亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达133.53亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.27亿份，创近1月新高。 消息面上，4月制造业PMI降至49.0%，为2021年以来四月份的第二低。4月制造业PMI容易季节性回落，今年4月制造业PMI环比降幅明显好于2022年4月及 2020年2月，反映美国高关税对中国经济的影响程度可能明显好于疫情。 机构认为，未来债市需要关注中美关税谈判的进展。倘若未来半年中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内10Y国债收益率高点仍可能到1.9%，2025年经济 仍有望企稳。由于关税谈判艰难，短期或难谈成，我们预计债市二季度震荡。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易。 流动性方面，国债ETF ...

| | | 中 债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 4月25日 | 4月30日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.3377 | 1.4121 | 7.44 | | 0.08 | 1. 4312 | 1. 4483 | 1.71 | | 0.17 | 1.4416 | 1.4494 | 0. 78 | | 0. 25 | 1. 4468 | 1. 4659 | 1.91 | | 0.5 | 1. 4793 | 1.4691 | -1.02 | | 0. 75 | 1. 45 | 1. 45 | 0 | | 1 | 1. 4501 | 1. 4599 | 0.98 | | 2 | 1. 4838 | 1. 4507 | -3. 31 | | 3 | 1.5192 | 1.4766 | -4.26 | | 5 | 1.5433 | 1.5163 | -2.7 | | 7 | 1.6158 | 1.5806 | -3.52 | | 10 | 1.6606 | 1.6243 | -3.63 | | 1 5 | 1.8195 | 1.7955 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06% to a latest price of 105.57 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.15% over the past six months as of April 29, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF showed a turnover of 0.85% with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.802 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 13.258 billion yuan, with the latest share count at 12.6 million, marking a new high in the past month [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI data from Huaxi Securities on April 30 and the central bank's announcement of a buyout repurchase scale may act as catalysts for market volatility [4] - High-frequency data suggests that enterprises may be transitioning from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-exports," indicating a potential for manufacturing sentiment to exceed market expectations [4] Group 3 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) showed a mixed market with a latest quote of 117.39 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.04% over the past month as of April 29, 2025 [7] - The liquidity of the national debt ETF indicated a turnover of 3.77% with a transaction volume of approximately 55.33 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 470 million yuan [7] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF reached 1.47 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past three months [7] Group 4 - The national development bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.03% to a latest price of 105.91 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.36% over the past year as of April 29, 2025 [10] - The liquidity of the national development bond ETF showed a turnover of 3.98% with a transaction volume of approximately 54.41 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 617 million yuan [10] - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant growth in scale by 388 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [10] Group 5 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [11]

利率专题 5 月，债市关键词 2025 年 04 月 29 日 展望 5 月，基本面如何演绎？政策发力推进下，财政与货币如何配合？央行 态度和资金面怎么看？债市能否迎来破局？本文聚焦于此。 ➢ 4 月利率向下，曲线演绎牛平 从 4 月债市表现来看：上旬在"超预期对等关税"和"对应反制关税"背景 下，货币宽松预期进一步增强，催化利率快速下行，10 年国债收益率下至 1.63%， 30 年国债收益率下至 1.83%；进入中下旬，中美关税政策边际缓和，财政供给 放量预期和短期政策保持定力，多空交织下债市方向尚不明朗，维持窄幅波动。 结合高频数据来观察：4 月 EPMI 指数大幅回落 10.2 个百分点至 49.4%；4 月汽车全钢胎开工率和半钢胎开工率连续多周出现回落；4 月 SCFI 指数、BDI 指 数呈现下滑态势，表现弱于季节性水平，一定程度指向出口边际转弱。 （2）政府债供给压力如何？随着大行注资特别国债和超长期特别国债启动 发行，以及新增专项债供给可能提速，预估二季度政府债供给压力仍不小，5-6 月或是发行高峰，供给压力的抬升可能加大市场扰动，而当中的关键又在于，央 行会如何对冲操作以配合财政发力？ （3 ...

近期债市延续震荡格局。利率市场上下两难，债市波动幅度显著收窄，10年期国债收益率持续围绕 1.65%窄幅震荡。上周受关税争端缓和预期升温、中央政治局会议召开在即等影响，市场参与者情绪趋 于谨慎，债市维持区间震荡走势，呈现"看多但不做多"的观望态势。上周五召开的中央政治局会议释放 积极政策信号，但主要聚焦推动存量政策加快落地见效，并未推出实质性增量政策。政策力度未超市场 预期，降准降息预期再次落空，债市平衡格局延续。 从市场驱动逻辑分析，当前债市多空因素交织：一方面，出口承压将对二季度经济修复形成扰动，为货 币政策预留空间，基本面与政策环境为债市提供了做多支撑；另一方面，当前利率已逼近前期低点，关 税政策存在高度不确定性，从特朗普近期发言分析，关税争端短期有缓和的可能，同时国内稳增长政策 仍有发力预期，限制利率的下行空间，机构做多信心不足，观望情绪较浓。 第三，货币政策宽松必要性提升，但短期仍需要触发条件。4月中央政治局会议再提"适时降准降息"， 笔者认为，"适时"意味着货币工具仍要用在刀刃上，需要看到经济数据走低或市场压力的触发。本月 MLF超额续作5000亿元后，降准的概率有所降低，但超储率偏低、二季度政府 ...