阳光与阴影总是相伴相生，动力与阻力总是相依相随。经济全球化是不可逆转的历史大势，但逆全球化 也如影随形。一方面，科技革命大发展，市场分工大拓展，推动生产力快速发展，全球化加速向前，动 力更足；另一方面，全球发展失衡，贫富鸿沟扩大，全球治理赤字，全球化阻力增大。同时，有的国家 即使在全球化中获益，但漠视贫富差距，国内政策调节不足，生产关系变革滞后于生产力发展，上层建 筑不适应新的经济基础，民族主义、民粹主义抬头，加剧了逆全球化声浪。其中的关键变量，是中美开 放态度的180度大转弯：美国从20年前的动力变为阻力，中国正从助力变成主力，但引领力尚需累积。 经济全球化曾经被人们视为阿里巴巴的山洞，现在又被不少人看作潘多拉的盒子，正处在冷战结束以来 的艰难时刻。 全球化遭遇料峭春寒，三年新冠疫情全球大流行，地缘冲突热点不断，重创全球生产，削弱世界需求， 全球供应链产业链价值链遭受割裂，系统性风险增大。不少国家开始向内转，本土化、区域化、安全化 势头明显，单边主义、保护主义持续升温，友岸、近岸成为结盟围堵的借口，各自为阵、甩锅推责成为 常态，危及自由贸易等全球化进程。歧路徘徊之际，有识之士不禁要问：全球化将走向何方？是共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to market divergence, with experts emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency devaluation rather than a short-term trading tool [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have reached over 60 historical highs, with more than 20 records set in 2025 alone, despite a recent pullback to around $3,200 per ounce, resulting in an approximate 60% increase in the market so far [1]. - The World Gold Council's analysis indicates that central bank purchases contributed over 10% to the short-term price fluctuations, while geopolitical risk factors accounted for 9% [1]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in gold ETFs contributed approximately 5.6% to the price increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The demand for gold has been bolstered by increasing central bank purchases and the growth of domestic gold-related ETFs, which have expanded from around 70 billion yuan to nearly 150 billion yuan [2]. - Historical data shows that gold has delivered an annualized return of nearly 9% over the past 50 years, with recent trends of de-dollarization and rising tariffs further enhancing its appeal as an investment [2]. - Experts note that gold, unlike traditional currencies, does not generate interest or dividends, making its value dependent on the next buyer's willingness to pay [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is characterized by high volatility and a complex set of influencing factors, with geopolitical risks providing upward pressure on prices [3]. - Historical trends suggest that while gold prices may rise in the long term, they can also experience significant corrections, as seen after the Bretton Woods system collapse [3].

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by increased purchases from global central banks and heightened investment demand, reflecting new characteristics in gold demand structure [1][2][3] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors and a temporary slowdown in central bank purchases, but a long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected due to declining dollar credibility and ongoing central bank gold accumulation [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold prices are determined by supply and demand balance, with supply being relatively stable due to gold's scarcity. Demand is categorized into jewelry manufacturing, industrial use, central bank purchases, and investment [4][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased in recent years, accounting for 21.77% of total demand by the end of 2024, making it a crucial factor influencing gold prices [6][9] Historical Trends - Gold's historical price movements can be divided into three phases: the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971), a period of volatility post-1971, and the current phase characterized by increased central bank purchases since 2022 [2][31] - The current phase of gold price increases is marked by central bank purchases and investor demand driven by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions [2][65] Future Outlook - Short-term corrections in gold prices may occur, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to factors such as declining dollar trust, the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][65] - The interplay of gold's financial, commodity, and monetary attributes will continue to influence its demand and pricing dynamics in the context of global economic uncertainties [18][26][70]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]

有"全球成长股捕手"美名的著名价值投资公司Baillie Gifford成长投资主管兼合伙人Peter Singlehurst日前 接受博客采访，就人工智能热潮、当下什么公司最值得投资等多个热门话题进行对话。 作为投资界百年老店，位于苏格兰爱丁堡Baillie Gifford的核心投资策略哲学是全球长期成长策略，即在 全球范围内发掘并长期投资于最具竞争力、创新性和成长效率的极少数优质企业。 全球科技巨头的早期投资者中，有许多都能看到Baillie Gifford的身影：公司2004年投资Amazon，2011 年投资Illumina，2013年投资特斯拉，2014年投资了阿里巴巴，2016年投资了美团。 在被问到当下最会进行的一项投资，Peter斩钉截铁地脱口而出——字节跳动。Peter预估，即便是在如 今的国际形势下，在字节跳动上的投资依然有五倍的回报率。 以下是对谈核心要点： 企业需要警惕"填鸭式投资"的危害，对早期风险投资而言，如果不把ROE作为投资的重点考 虑，这会成为公司发展的隐患。 在生成式AI热潮中保持战略定力，Baillie Gifford投资了AI公司有DataBricks和Tenstorr ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that global major asset classes have shown significant recovery, particularly risk assets such as equities, commodities, and alternatives, following positive developments in US-China trade talks [4][10] - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, focusing on three tactical opportunities for aggressive buying: improved win rates due to easing trade tensions, attractive valuations of Chinese assets, and liquidity issues leading to opportunities [5][13] - The article highlights that the strategic long-term view is influenced by three underlying logics: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, reinforcing the need for an all-weather strategy to balance risks and returns [5][13] Group 2 - Key financial indicators from May 5 to May 13 show a convergence in the SOFR-OIS spread, indicating a slight easing of US dollar liquidity, and an increase in the US financial conditions index, reflecting improved overall financial conditions [6][10] - The article provides a calendar of important global economic data releases and events from May 19 to June 1, including China's fixed asset investment and retail sales, as well as US initial jobless claims and GDP estimates [16] - The focus charts track global major asset dynamics, showing significant movements in various asset classes and their correlations, which are essential for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, providing temporary relief to businesses engaged in trade between the two countries [1][2] - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while China will reciprocate by canceling the same percentage of its counter-tariffs [1] - The market reacted positively to the announcement, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing their largest single-day percentage gains since April 9, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, Nasdaq up 4.35%, and S&P 500 up 3.26% [1] Group 2 - The trade agreement is seen as a temporary relief for businesses, but it is acknowledged that the trade landscape is changing, pushing companies to adapt to a new global consensus [2] - The textile industry, particularly those exporting to the U.S., has been significantly impacted, with exports of textile products to the U.S. accounting for 32.2% of total exports in this sector [3] - The hair product industry, especially wigs, is also heavily affected, with over 80% of global wig products sourced from China, and 62.02% of these products exported to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - The electronics sector, particularly AI hardware, faces substantial challenges due to high tariffs, with a 50% increase in tariffs potentially leading to a 10% drop in net profit margins for these companies [5] - The U.S. has shown unexpected flexibility in its tariff policies, which has surprised many businesses that were preparing for a prolonged period of high tariffs [6] - The recent trade developments have allowed some companies, like those in the wig industry, to resume orders from the U.S., although they still face significant losses from the previous tariff increases [7] Group 4 - The trade conflict has prompted a shift in business strategies, with companies considering diversifying their markets beyond the U.S. to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single market [9] - E-commerce platforms are adapting to these changes, with increased advertising spending in European markets as companies seek to establish a presence outside the U.S. [10] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and its industries is expected to support businesses in navigating the challenges posed by the evolving trade environment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the significant progress made during the Geneva trade talks, where both sides agreed to reduce tariffs substantially, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Signals Released - The urgency from the US side is heightened due to upcoming holidays that require timely product shipments, which could impact the domestic market if unresolved [4]. - The trade friction, if not addressed, could lead to inflation and negatively affect the US stock and bond markets, which is undesirable for the Trump administration [4][5]. - Both countries recognize the need for cooperation, with the US requiring a stable relationship with China for economic reasons, while China aims to avoid deterioration in relations for mutual benefits [5][6]. Group 2: Disadvantages of "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy - Trump's tariff policy is not new but reflects his long-standing focus on tariffs and immigration issues, aiming to boost US revenue and reduce trade deficits [8]. - The policy risks exacerbating inflation and weakening the global competitiveness of US companies, while also alienating major trade partners [8][9]. - The long-term impact on the US's international image and economic cooperation could be detrimental, as the country faces growing skepticism regarding its economic direction and policy stability [9]. Group 3: US in a "Trial and Error" Phase - The fundamental impact of the tariff policy is more about obstructing China's development rather than just trade relations, driven by political motives rather than economic ones [11]. - The structural contradictions in US-China relations remain unchanged, with the US facing systemic issues such as intense political rivalry, wealth disparity, racial tensions, and cultural divides [12]. - The current trend of "de-globalization" suggests that economic friction between the US and China will persist, although there are signs of positive developments from the recent talks [13][14]. - The relationship is expected to return to rationality over time, but this transformation may take about ten years, as the US navigates through its "trial and error" phase [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the performance of domestic weapons, aiding the expansion of the global military trade market. Pakistan's military success in this conflict, particularly with Chinese exports like the J-10C fighter jet, has increased the recognition of Chinese military equipment in international markets [1][6]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving the military trade market expansion. The increasing security demands of various countries, coupled with China's competitive military products, are expected to fill the gaps left by declining military exports from other nations. This trend positions the military trade market as a new growth driver for China's military industry [2][7]. - The capital market has reacted positively, with the defense and military sector index rising by 4.64% from May 7 to May 12, 2025, indicating heightened investor interest and optimism in the military sector due to the recent conflict [2][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance of Domestic Weapons - The India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 saw Pakistan claim the downing of multiple Indian aircraft, including the French-made Rafale. This conflict provided a platform for Chinese military exports, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, which played a significant role in Pakistan's military achievements [1][5][6]. Section 2: Geopolitical Factors Driving Market Expansion - The report emphasizes that the trend of de-globalization and increased geopolitical uncertainty is enhancing the global military trade logic. China's military products, known for their cost-effectiveness and technological advancement, are expected to meet the rising demand in the military trade market as other countries face export declines [2][7]. Section 3: Key Investment Targets - The report identifies three key companies for investment: 1. **AVIC Chengfei**: Focuses on aviation equipment, including fighter jets like the J-10 and J-20, which have gained international recognition [10]. 2. **AVIC Shenyang**: Engaged in manufacturing military aircraft, with products like the J-11 and J-16, benefiting from the growing international military trade market [11]. 3. **Guokai Military Industry**: Specializes in missile and ammunition production, with products that have proven effective in recent conflicts, indicating strong future growth potential [12].