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工业硅、多晶硅:下行周期,需求为锚
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 05:19
2025 年 6 月 20 日 工业硅、多晶硅:下行周期,需求为锚 张航 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读: 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年至今,工业硅、多晶硅盘面价格相较年初已呈现出很大跌幅,但我们认为价格仍未到达底部。目前,双硅均 处于库存高企、成本塌陷以及需求崩塌的格局之下。从 2025 年 4 月份开始,盘面的交易逻辑已更多转向为需求定价, 即需求成色很大程度上决定了盘面的涨跌。此时,成本估值逻辑开始失效,虽上游工厂复产或不减产具备各种各样的原 因,但最直观的解读或许为价格并未跌至真正的成本线位置。站在 6 月中旬的时间点,无论是工业硅还是多晶硅工厂, 均有继续复产的预期,此会给到三季度供应端进一步的边际增量。而此时需求尚未见底,在此情形下出现因短期扰动带 来的反弹将会是很好的做空机会。也即,在需求并未见底的路径之下,价格难言底部,甚至极端行情之中很有可能会击 穿静态现金成本线位置。因此整体来看,在终端需求好转之前,我们对工业硅、多晶硅期货均维持空配的思路。 工业硅供需平衡角度,三季度供需过剩,四季度供需转紧平衡。三季度供需双增,但受限于终端 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It's in a phase of negative factors materializing. Uncertainty exists in the unilateral direction due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US. Considering the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is favored [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. In June, maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and imports have a profit of around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene market is oscillating. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by continuous export growth or more PDH device maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new capacity commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 in June [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the动力煤 futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2480 to 2765, and the South China spot price rose from 2450 to 2680. The daily change on June 19 showed an increase of 65 in Jiangsu and South China spot prices [2]. - **View**: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a phase of negative factors materializing. With low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price rose from 790 to 820. The North China LL price increased from 7210 to 7400, and the East China LL price went up from 7300 to 7500 [7]. - **View**: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are stable, and attention should be paid to production conversion and new device commissioning [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6410 to 6460. The East China PP price rose from 7090 to 7245 [7]. - **View**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by certain factors [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 872 to 842 [10][11]. - **View**: The basis has strengthened, inventories are decreasing, and attention should be paid to multiple factors in June [11].
至暗时刻已过,锂电铜箔走出独立行情,只赚加工费也能逆袭
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-06-20 00:07
Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery copper foil industry is experiencing a rebirth driven by cost reduction and technological innovation after a challenging period of losses over the past two years [3][4]. Industry Overview - From 2014 to 2023, lithium battery copper foil sales surged from less than 50,000 tons to nearly 500,000 tons, with total industry capacity increasing by over 120% from 2022 to 2023 due to a production expansion initiated in 2020 [3][5]. - In 2023, China's lithium battery copper foil production capacity reached 950,000 tons, with a total electrolytic copper foil capacity of 1,563,000 tons per year [5]. Financial Performance - Major listed companies in the copper foil sector faced significant losses in 2024, with losses ranging from 84 million yuan to 352 million yuan [4][6]. - The overall product gross margin for the lithium battery copper foil sector plummeted from 20% in previous years to 4.84% in 2023, and further down to 0.14% in 2024 [6]. Recovery Signs - In Q1 2025, six out of the top ten listed companies in the copper foil sector reported positive net profit growth, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [7]. - Factors contributing to the recovery include cost reduction through optimized processes and an increase in the proportion of high-value-added products [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning towards thinner copper foils, with 6-micron copper foil currently being the mainstream product, while demand for even thinner products like 4.5-micron and 3-micron foils is increasing [4][11]. - The processing fee for lithium battery copper foil peaked in April 2022 but has since declined significantly, with expectations of stabilization in the near future [5][10]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics as low-end capacity is phased out and market consolidation occurs [6][10]. - The market for ultra-thin copper foils (less than 6 microns) is expected to grow, with projections indicating that their market share could rise from 15% to 30-40% by the end of 2025 [11][12].
世界最大!英力士,永久停止!
DT新材料· 2025-06-19 15:38
Core Viewpoint - The closure of the world's largest phenol and acetone production facility by INEOS in Germany highlights the challenges faced by the European chemical industry, primarily due to high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes, leading to reduced competitiveness against imports and a decline in local demand [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Actions - INEOS plans to permanently close its production facility in Gladbeck, Germany, which has an annual production capacity of 650,000 tons [1][2]. - The closure is attributed to the high energy costs in Europe and the impact of carbon tax policies, which have made it difficult for the company to compete with imports from China and a global supply surplus [3][5]. - INEOS has previously expressed concerns about the viability of the European chemical industry, indicating that it is facing extinction due to similar challenges [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The European chemical industry, which generates approximately €1 trillion in revenue, is undergoing significant strategic adjustments, with many companies announcing closures or layoffs due to high operational costs [5][8]. - Other companies, such as SGL Carbon, Teijin, and Dow, are also making similar moves, including plant closures and workforce reductions, in response to the challenging market conditions [8][9]. - The closure of INEOS's phenol plant is indicative of a broader trend in the industry, where many companies are facing overcapacity and declining prices, particularly in the phenol market, which is expected to see additional capacity coming online in 2025 [11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The domestic phenol production capacity has reached 6.39 million tons, with leading companies like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical dominating the market [11]. - The industry is already experiencing oversupply, with an expected additional capacity of 995,000 tons in 2025, leading to a downward trend in phenol prices since the second quarter of 2025 [11]. - A report indicates that 24 types of products are under capacity warning, with 14 categorized as high-risk, suggesting a need for cautious investment and project management in the chemical sector [11].
大摩周期闭门会议:金融,汽车,房地产,航运行业更新
2025-06-19 09:47
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - **Shipping Industry** [19] - **Automotive Industry** [7] - **Real Estate Industry** [28] Core Points and Arguments Shipping Industry Insights - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, impacting the shipping industry [19] - Three scenarios for oil prices were discussed: 1. Return to $60 per barrel if production stabilizes 2. A significant drop in Iranian oil production could push prices to $75-$80 per barrel 3. A low-probability event of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [20] - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in the transportation of sanctioned oil, which has previously depressed compliant shipping demand [22] - The outlook for oil shipping remains positive due to OPEC's increasing production plans, which will support transportation demand [23] - Recent increases in oil shipping rates were noted, with VLCC rates from the Middle East to East Asia rising from over $20,000 to $50,000 [24] Automotive Industry Developments - In May, the automotive industry saw a 6% month-over-month growth, with a total of approximately 1 million vehicles sold [8] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced over 40% growth, with cumulative sales reaching 5.3 million units [9] - The market is cautious about the upcoming months, with expectations of a potential decline in sales during the traditional off-peak season [10] - A recent meeting among government officials and car manufacturers aimed to address aggressive price competition in the market [12] - Concerns about a 60-day payment term for suppliers could impact cash flow and financing needs for car manufacturers [16] Real Estate Industry Analysis - The company "华人之地" has received positive feedback on its report regarding commercial asset separation and capital recycling to support profit growth [28] - The company has outperformed peers in market share growth despite macroeconomic challenges, achieving a 5% growth in market share last year [29] - Concerns were raised about the impact of the real estate downturn on development profits, with predictions of a 10-15% decline in development profit margins for 2025 and 2026 [30] - The company is positioned to benefit from the gradual stabilization of housing prices in major cities, which could improve profit margins [31] - The potential for value re-evaluation is expected in three phases, with the first phase already showing an increase in stock price and forward P/E ratio [32][33] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shipping industry is facing a cautious outlook for container shipping due to supply overhang and trade disputes, with only a 3% impact from Middle Eastern tensions [25][26] - The automotive sector is experiencing a competitive pricing environment, with manufacturers needing to balance sales targets and inventory management [14][15] - The real estate sector's transition to asset management is seen as a long-term strategy, with expectations for increased dividend payout ratios and operational profit contributions [34][35]
大摩闭门会-金融,汽车,房地产,航运,石油行业更新
2025-06-19 09:46
大摩闭门会-金融,汽车,房地产,航运,石油行业更新 20250618 摘要 5 月社融数据显示贷款增速维持 7%左右,银行压缩短期票据类贷款, 信贷市场化趋势明显。公司存款和 M1 数据回升,企业现金流缓慢改善, 表明通过市场化方法解决产能过剩是金融体系的重要方向。 汽车行业稳步前行,5 月乘用车批发量约 235 万辆,新能源车约 120 万 辆。前五个月乘用车累计增长 13%,新能源车增长超四成,燃油车下滑 6%。全年预估乘用车批发数增长 3%,新能源车预计增长 22%~23%。 今年前五个月汽车贷款业务达成率为 39%,电动车为 35%,燃油车为 43%,均高于去年同期。尽管存在价格战,但整体进展稳步推进,全年 汽车市场预期保持稳定。 近期价格战由头部车企降价引发,监管要求车企自我监督。终端消费者 观望氛围减弱,购车意愿增强。厂家持续补贴经销商清库存,整体终端 折扣未明显收窄。 Q&A 今年金融系统的周期底部是否已经逐渐回升?有哪些具体表现? 今年金融系统的周期底部确实在逐渐回升。去年基本见底,今年则在逐步恢复。 从严监管防风险转向促发展,尤其是香港作为试点的新趋势正在形成,IPO 也 在恢复。5 月份的 ...
稀土出口,大消息!
证券时报· 2025-06-19 07:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's approach to rare earth exports, emphasizing compliance with international regulations and the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [2][3][4]. Group 1: Export Policy and Compliance - The Ministry of Commerce is expediting the review of rare earth export license applications, having already approved a certain number of compliant applications [2][4]. - China is committed to enhancing communication with relevant countries regarding export controls to facilitate compliant trade [2][4][5]. Group 2: International Relations and Trade Dynamics - China's industrial subsidy policy adheres to principles of openness, fairness, and compliance with WTO rules, countering accusations of protectionism from other nations [3]. - The European Union has committed over €1.44 trillion in various subsidies from 2021 to 2030, with over €300 billion already disbursed by 2024, highlighting its own protectionist measures [3]. Group 3: Rare Earth Resources - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy categories, with heavy rare earths being rarer and predominantly found in China, which holds over 80% of global heavy rare earth reserves [6].
早报|美政府恢复办理外国学生签证;官方通报救护车跨省转运收费2.8万;卢伟冰剧透YU7价格;微软准备退出OpenAI谈判
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-18 23:59
Group 1 - The U.S. government has resumed processing foreign student visas, requiring applicants to provide their social media accounts [2] - The construction of the major scientific facility "Kua Fu" has made significant progress, with one of its key systems passing expert evaluation and achieving international leading performance [3] - Customs authorities have seized over 20,000 counterfeit LABUBU products, confirming infringement of the POP MART brand [4] Group 2 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to the European Commission President's comments regarding China's trade practices, emphasizing compliance with WTO rules [6][7] - The European Union is projected to provide over €1.44 trillion in various subsidies from 2021 to 2030, with over €300 billion already disbursed by 2024 [7] Group 3 - Ford China responded to rumors about the integration of Jiangling Ford into Changan Ford, emphasizing its focus on maintaining a competitive and sustainable sales network [12] - Roma Technology announced a recall of mobile power banks due to potential overheating risks, offering replacements or refunds to affected consumers [13] Group 4 - Microsoft is prepared to exit high-risk negotiations with OpenAI if key issues regarding future shareholding are not resolved [14] - Audi has reversed its previous plan to stop developing internal combustion engine vehicles by 2033, opting for a more flexible approach to vehicle development [15][16] Group 5 - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expect to lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, with inflation projected to rise to 3% and unemployment to 4.5% by that time [20] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is accelerating the development of science and technology innovation bonds, with ten companies having submitted materials for the first batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [22][23]
产能过剩持续,高瓴将减持隆基绿能至5%以下,浮亏已近百亿
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-06-18 14:37
6月7日,光伏龙头公司隆基绿能公告将遭高瓴资本旗下HHLR 管理有限公司(以下简称"HHLR")减持 至5%以下。 2020年12月,高瓴资本以每股70元的价格受让隆基绿能6%股份,成为后者第二大股东。而今随着光伏 行业产能过剩愈演愈烈,隆基绿能股价如今仅为14元左右,此次减持发生时高瓴已浮亏近百亿。 早在2023年,隆基绿能股价跌至40元左右时,HHLR就曾尝试减持隆基绿能股份至5%,却因减持方式 违规而未能成行。南都湾财社记者也就未来HHLR是否将进一步减持隆基绿能股票等问题向高瓴投资发 去采访函,截至发稿时未获回应。 行业整体供过于求 进一步减持将无需披露 高瓴投资浮亏近百亿 隆基绿能发布的《股东减持股份计划公告》显示,HHLR 拟自本公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3个 月内,通过集中竞价交易方式减持其持有的公司股份不超过37,890,248股。当前HHLR持有隆基绿能 416,460,085股,持股比例为5.50%,减持计划相关风险提示显示,本次减持计划实施后,减持股东将不 再为公司持股5%以上股东。 公开资料显示,HHLR是高瓴旗下专注二级市场投资的基金管理平台,由独立的二级投资团队负责管理 ...
中国驻欧盟使团就欧盟委员会主席在G7峰会期间涉华言论答记者问
news flash· 2025-06-18 11:25
Group 1 - The European Commission President accused China of ignoring global trade rules and providing substantial subsidies to domestic companies, claiming that China is weaponizing its dominance in rare earths and transferring excess capacity to global markets [1] - China firmly opposes these statements, asserting that its industrial subsidy policies adhere to open, fair, and compliant principles, and that it strictly follows WTO rules [1] - China's industrial development relies on continuous technological innovation, a complete supply chain system, sufficient market competition, and abundant human resources, rather than subsidies [1] Group 2 - The notion of "overcapacity" is essentially a concern of certain countries regarding their competitiveness and market share, using it as a pretext for protectionist measures [2] - The EU has been implementing industrial policies and providing substantial subsidies to support European companies, with an estimated total of over €1.44 trillion in various subsidies from 2021 to 2030, and over €300 billion already disbursed by 2024 [2] - China emphasizes its commitment to high-level opening-up and aims to provide European companies with vast market opportunities, while opposing any attempts that undermine China's development rights for the benefit of others [2]