Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market demand for asphalt is weak due to factors such as rainy weather in North China, restricted construction activities, and high social inventories in South China. The overall price of asphalt is expected to be weak in the short - to - medium term, although it may rise in the short term due to crude oil rebounds [7]. 3. Summary of Key Information Market Data - **Spot prices**: In the spot market, asphalt prices in East China remained at 3720 yuan, decreased by 10 yuan in North China to 3660 yuan, decreased by 10 yuan in the installation area to 3490 yuan, remained unchanged in Northeast China at 3915 yuan, remained unchanged in Northwest China at 4250 yuan, and decreased by 20 yuan in Shandong to 3510 yuan [1]. - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures, the prices of BU2509, BU2510, BU2511, and BU2512 increased by 0.09%, 0.32%, 0.56%, and 0.57% respectively [1]. Industry News - China may introduce measures next month to cut long - term over - capacity in low - value - added areas of the petrochemical industry, with the specific plan awaiting final approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. - Petrochemical facilities operating for over 20 years need technological transformation, and the government will encourage enterprises to shift to the specialty fine - chemical field [2]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [2]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day [4]. - Global oil demand in June surged by over 1 million barrels per day compared to May, while production growth was only half of that in May, leading to inventories below the five - year average [4][5]. Geopolitical News - The EU's next - round sanctions against Russia are expected to be ready in September [4]. - Ukraine's Odessa and Sumy regions were attacked, and the Ukrainian side called for pressure on Russia to end the conflict [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures rose, and commodity futures had a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures relatively strong and agricultural product futures relatively weak [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal, sodium hydroxide, and paraxylene, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), egg, and coking coal [12][13][14]. - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for specific commodities such as silicon metal, PTA, and soybean meal [18][25][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 21, equity indices had some rising and some falling, CGB futures gained, and commodity futures showed a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures strong and agricultural product futures weak [11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal (up 3.7% with 1.3% month - on - month open interest increase), sodium hydroxide (up 3.3% with 23.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and paraxylene (up 2.6% with 17.8% month - on - month open interest increase) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.5% with 5.0% month - on - month open interest increase), egg (down 2.2% with 10.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and coking coal (down 1.5% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On August 21, silicon metal increased by 3.7% to 8635 yuan/ton. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate under macro sentiment and coal prices with little fundamental change. Concentrated production resumption may suppress prices [18][20]. - In August, southwest capacity release has significant room, and some major manufacturers may resume production, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows signs of month - on - month improvement, and inventory is expected to accumulate [19][20]. 1.2.2 PTA - On August 21, PTA increased by 2.5% to 4860 yuan/ton, driven by domestic petrochemical news, South Korea's capacity cut, and plant maintenance [25][31]. - China's plan to address overcapacity and South Korea's capacity cut may impact PX imports. Plant maintenance eases short - term supply pressure [26][27][28]. - In the short term, polyester chain prices are expected to have stronger support due to reduced supply, increased demand, and positive news [29][32]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Soybean Meal - On August 21, soybean meal decreased by 1.0% to 3113 yuan/ton. With downstream stocking, the basis may rebound, and long positions at 2900 - 2910 should be held and increased on dips [36][40]. - The American Soybean Association called for an agreement with China. U.S. soybean growth is good, and Brazil's export volume has peaked [37][40]. - Domestically, near - term inventory pressure and long - term supply gap are recognized. Oil factory maintenance eases near - term pressure, and long - term demand may increase [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration will exempt personal income tax for child - rearing subsidies from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The American Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China to ease the crisis of soybean farmers [46]. 2.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will promote the research and development of billet, cement, chicken, etc., and explore short - term options [47][48]. - HKEX will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism based on international experience and local market conditions [47][48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The impact of policies on the ethylene glycol industry is more emotional than substantial. In the medium term, as domestic and foreign operating rates increase, ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle, and its valuation will face pressure at high levels. In the short term, the recent low arrival volume and policy stimulus provide some support, and opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be considered after the arrival volume increases [1][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Anti - involution Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy to assess old petrochemical and chemical devices may ease over - capacity in the chemical industry, but for the ethylene glycol industry, the proportion of old devices is small. The operating devices over 20 years old have a capacity of 118.5 million tons, accounting for 4% of ethylene glycol capacity, and the devices mainly producing ethylene glycol account for only 2%. The impact on the industry with an operating rate of 60% - 70% is limited [4]. - The policy in Jiangsu Province to restrict ethylene glycol devices below 200,000 tons per year has little impact as only Sierbang's 40,000 - ton device in the province is affected [4]. South Korean Policy Impact - South Korea plans to cut 2.7 - 3.7 billion tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, accounting for about 25% of the total capacity. The ethylene glycol production capacity in South Korea is 1.41 billion tons, with only 425,000 tons of in - production devices mainly producing ethylene glycol, and the capacity utilization rate is 30%. - From January to July 2025, China imported 118,000 tons of ethylene glycol from South Korea, accounting for nearly 2.7% of the total imports, with an average monthly import of 17,000 tons. This import volume is easy to replace, and the impact on China's ethylene glycol supply and raw material end is small [5]. Policy Emotional Impact Greater than Substance, Medium - term Pattern Weak - Supply - side policies at home and abroad have little impact on the over - capacity problem of ethylene glycol, and there is still room for capacity utilization to increase. - In the downstream polyester industry, the proportion of old devices over 20 years old is 11.9%. If capacity clearance occurs, the negative impact on the demand side will be greater than the positive impact on the supply side. - In the medium term, if domestic and foreign devices restart smoothly, ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle even in the peak season. The valuation profit of naphtha - based devices is at a high level this year, facing compression pressure. - In the short term, the low arrival volume and policy stimulus support ethylene glycol, and short - selling on rallies should be considered after the arrival volume increases [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hongyuan Green Energy reported a significant revenue decline of 19.52% year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.229 billion yuan, but managed to reduce its net loss by 74.35% to 297 million yuan compared to the previous year's loss of 1.157 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has experienced seven consecutive quarters of losses, accumulating over 3.3 billion yuan in losses [1] - Accounts payable reached 13.1 billion yuan, while cash and cash equivalents stood at only 5.2 billion yuan, indicating a tight cash flow situation [1] - Operating costs decreased by 26.74%, which is greater than the revenue decline, leading to an improvement in net profit margin from -28.84% to -9.19%, a 19.65 percentage point increase [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing overcapacity, leading to intense price competition and significantly compressed profits, particularly in lower-tech segments [2] - The price of N-type M10 silicon wafers dropped by 31% from the peak in April, affecting all business segments [3] Group 3: Strategic Moves - Hongyuan Green Energy has adopted a vertically integrated model in the silicon supply chain, which allows for flexible adjustments in production capacity and inventory control [3] - The company signed a cooperation agreement with Jiangsu Shunfeng Photovoltaic to take over Wuxi Suntech, aiming to leverage its brand and overseas channels for market expansion [4] - The overseas revenue for Hongyuan Green Energy was only 90.92 million yuan in 2024, but the gross margin for overseas business was significantly higher at 6.27% compared to -8.73% for domestic business [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Wuxi Suntech has a total debt of approximately 9.588 billion yuan, with significant financial pressure on Hongyuan Green Energy, which already has high accounts payable [5] - The effective production capacity of Wuxi Suntech is only 2.5 GW out of a nominal capacity of 5.5 GW, indicating outdated equipment and competitiveness issues [5] - The transaction is influenced by government policies aimed at consolidating the photovoltaic industry and addressing disorderly competition [5]

Group 1 - The US and EU have finalized a framework trade agreement that outlines plans to potentially lower European auto tariffs and initiate discussions on reducing steel and aluminum tariffs [1][2] - The agreement includes specific benchmarks for tariff reductions in the automotive, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor sectors, as well as new commitments regarding EU digital services regulations [1][2] - The US has agreed to lower the tariff on European car imports from 15% to a lower rate, contingent upon the EU formally proposing legislation to eliminate its tariffs on US industrial products [2] Group 2 - The US is exploring the possibility of reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum through a quota system, contrasting with previous assertions that these tariffs would remain at 50% [3] - The EU has committed to investing $600 billion in the US by 2028 and purchasing approximately $750 billion in US energy resources, including liquefied natural gas and oil [3] - The EU plans to significantly increase its procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, including a minimum of $40 billion in AI chips [3] Group 3 - The agreement addresses digital trade barriers, with the EU agreeing not to adopt or maintain network usage fees [4] - The EU has committed to providing more flexibility regarding its carbon-intensive import tariffs and ensuring that sustainability due diligence requirements do not impose undue restrictions on transatlantic trade [4] - Potential adjustments may include easing compliance requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) rose by 4.99% to 18.30 CNY per share, reflecting a positive alignment with its fundamental performance as reported in the financial results [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion CNY, up 58.94% [3] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 6.713 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.87%, and a net profit of 562 million CNY, which is a significant rise of 94.8% [3] - The company's revenue sources for H1 2025 were primarily from the photovoltaic sector, contributing 8.054 billion CNY (67.5%), followed by magnetic materials at 2.371 billion CNY (19.9%), and lithium battery products at 1.286 billion CNY (10.8%) [3] Business Segments - The photovoltaic segment is the largest revenue contributor, with a shipment of approximately 13.4 GW in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% year-on-year and a gross margin of about 16.7% [3] - The company has a production capacity of 290,000 tons of magnetic materials, making it the largest in China, and ranks first in the industry for ferrite magnetic material shipments [6] - The photovoltaic segment has an annual production capacity of 23 GW for batteries and 21 GW for solar modules, placing it among the top ten in product shipments [6] Industry Context - The company acknowledges the challenges of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry, with low average operating rates and operational difficulties, leading to accelerated industry consolidation [4] - The company faces global policy risks, including domestic regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition and international trade barriers such as tariffs and carbon taxes [5] - The management indicated that the production base in Indonesia is operating at full capacity, contributing positively to the photovoltaic segment's profitability, with expectations for further shipment increases in Q2 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing urgency of the Trump administration to secure soybean orders from China, as Brazil is rapidly capturing the Chinese market share previously held by the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - In 2016, the U.S. accounted for over 40% of China's soybean imports, but this share has significantly declined due to ongoing trade tensions [1]. - Trump has publicly requested China to triple its soybean orders from the U.S., indicating a desperate attempt to regain market share [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing a crisis, with exports dropping and domestic supply not being as robust as previously claimed [1][3]. Group 2: Brazil's Growing Influence - Brazil has increased its soybean exports to China, now capturing 70% of the market, while U.S. exports have dwindled to 20% [5]. - The Brazilian government, under President Lula, is actively seeking to strengthen agricultural ties with China, positioning itself as a reliable supplier [5]. - Brazil is also eyeing opportunities in the beef market, as U.S. beef exporters face challenges in renewing export qualifications to China [5]. Group 3: Trade Negotiation Implications - Trump's mention of reducing the trade deficit suggests a willingness to negotiate, potentially offering concessions in tariff discussions if China increases its orders [7]. - The article points out the double standards in U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. seeks to force China to buy its agricultural products while simultaneously trying to reduce dependency on Chinese goods [7]. - The call for the U.S. to remove unreasonable tariffs on China is presented as a solution to stabilize trade relations and restore mutual trust [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is rated as "1", indicating a "slightly strong" outlook [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: With a significant reduction in overnight crude oil inventories and a strong rebound in oil prices, the short - term downside space for PX's unilateral price may be limited. Supported by cost and with improved demand expectations, and a tight supply - demand pattern, the unilateral price of PX is expected to rebound. For the spread, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spread. The PX - naphtha valuation is at a moderately high level, with a tight supply - demand pattern in September and downward pressure on PXN after the 01 contract [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be held. With an improvement in terminal textile and clothing demand and a bottom - up rebound in polyester operating rates, the unilateral price of PTA is strong. The price and basis strengthened yesterday, and the downstream's willingness to hold goods increased [7]. - MEG: With a decrease in imports and arrivals and marginal destocking, the unilateral price of MEG is strong. The reduction of naphtha cracking capacity by the South Korean petrochemical group has disrupted the market sentiment of olefin - related products. Domestically, plants are operating at full capacity, imports are low, inventories are decreasing, and polyester operating rates are rising. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained. In the long - term, the supply pressure of new plants in the 01 contract will limit the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On the 20th, PX prices increased, with two October Asian spot transactions at $839 and $838, and one November Asian spot at $836. The PX valuation on the 20th was $837/ton, up $2 from the 19th. There were concerns about weak PX spot prices due to over - capacity in China, but hopes are placed on winter demand for polyester clothing [2][3]. - PTA: On the 20th, the PTA spot price remained at 4,690 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 2 [5]. - MEG: South Korean petrochemical companies will cut capacity and restructure. A 750,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has restarted, and there were tender transactions on the 20th [5]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 20th declined overall, with individual differences. The average sales volume was estimated to be slightly below 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were generally average, with an average sales volume of 57% as of 3:00 pm [5][6]. Futures and Spot Data | Product | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6,844 | 6774 | 1.03% | $838/ton | $2.83 | 255.5 | 2.5 | | PTA | 4,778 | 44 | 0.93% | 4,686 yuan/ton | - 4 | 197.31 | - 10.67 | | MEG | 4,477 | 53 | 1.20% | 4,502 yuan/ton | 47 | - | - | | PF | 6,504 | 72 | 1.12% | - | - | - | - | | SC | 482.8 | - 1.4 | - 0.29% | - | - | - | - |

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].

Economic Overview - The article discusses the prediction by US Treasury Secretary that the Chinese economy is on the verge of collapse due to the real estate sector's hard landing, but argues that this view is misguided [1][16] - Current issues in the Chinese economy include declining real estate, massive local debt, overcapacity, declining birth rates, and income inequality [1][16] Economic Fundamentals - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with the highest trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves globally, as well as the lowest central government debt ratio [1][16] - The total household savings in China is approximately 160 trillion yuan, with net savings around 80 trillion yuan, indicating a strong capacity to endure economic fluctuations [1][2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has seen a decline for four years, with some areas experiencing a 50% drop in prices, but this has not led to a panic sell-off as seen in the US [4][5] - The stability in the Chinese real estate market is attributed to the high cash flow and savings of the population, which prevents a hard landing [17][18] Urbanization and Debt - China's rapid urbanization has led to a significant increase in local government debt, exceeding 100 trillion yuan, as cities expanded quickly to accommodate rural populations [12][13] - The government is now focusing on controlling new debt and revitalizing existing assets to manage this debt effectively [20][21] Policy Responses - The government is addressing issues such as local debt, overcapacity, and declining birth rates through various policies, including limiting urban expansion and promoting orderly exit of excess capacity [22][23] - Recent initiatives to boost birth rates include financial subsidies for families and free preschool education [23][24] Economic Transition - The article emphasizes that the challenges faced by the Chinese economy are a result of rapid development and that solutions will take time, with gradual improvements expected over the next few years [47][61] - The shift in resource allocation from manufacturing to consumer support is underway, indicating a transition in economic strategy [44][46] Comparison with the US - The US economy also faces significant challenges, but its strong monetary policy and the ability to print dollars provide a buffer against economic crises [50][52] - The article suggests that while both economies have their issues, China's economic fundamentals remain robust compared to the US, which may face greater internal instability [62][63]