Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3*T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].

交一般，下游仍处于观望状态。铅酸蓄电池虽涨价，但经销商去库缓慢，抑制了电池厂开工积极性，导致 今年季节性旺季效果暂未显现。需求端对沪铅价格的拉动作用依旧有限。库存方面，海外库存上行；国内 库存小幅上行，仓单上行，整体需求放缓。从铅精矿加工角度来看，整体影响有限。综上所述，沪铅整体 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16960 | 140 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1977.5 | -0.5 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -35 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 103586 | 3492 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1236 | -1100 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 60059 | -25 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 62335 | 7186 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 270950 | 1725 | | | 上 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：鲍威尔把利率维持得太高了。 ...

美国财政部副部长福尔肯德："人们应该质疑"为什么利率如此之高。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Waller is the need for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in July due to concerns over weak private sector employment, which he believes is not as healthy as commonly perceived [1][3] - Waller's comments were influenced by the June non-farm payroll report, which indicated a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth, despite a slight decrease in the overall unemployment rate [3] - Following Waller's statements, the dollar index fell by 0.39%, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined slightly, indicating a more aggressive stance on rate cuts than the market consensus, which anticipates a cut in September [1] Group 2 - Waller has expressed interest in succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, stating he would accept the position if offered, although he noted that there has been no communication from President Trump regarding this matter [4] - He emphasized the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets, warning that a lack of credibility could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, contrary to the desired outcome of lower rates [5]

Core Insights - Following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a daily low [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline after Waller's remarks, indicating potential shifts in market expectations regarding interest rate policies [1]

特朗普：美联储正在扼杀房地产市场。高利率让年轻人很难买到房子。我们应该享受1%的利率。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们应当达到1%的（利率）水平。 ...

Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that tariffs will lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation in the coming months, but significant opportunities for long or short positions in overall duration have not been identified yet [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell advocates for patience regarding interest rates, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment goals and consider rate cuts later in the year as inflation is expected to decline [1] - Global central banks are adopting different policies in response to regional dynamics, leading to a general divergence between the economy and the markets [1] Government Bonds - In the Eurozone, the market expects the European Central Bank to further cut rates after a 175 basis point reduction, with long-term yields facing upward risks due to signs of demand recovery and low inflation expectations [3] - Japan is experiencing inflation pressure, with nominal GDP growth exceeding 5% year-on-year, but concerns over tariffs may hinder GDP growth and market confidence [3] - Investment opportunities may arise in UK government bonds as fears of fiscal irresponsibility lead to increased term premiums, despite signs of a weakening job market [3] Equities - The company maintains a moderate overweight in global equities, expecting positive earnings growth across major regions, although valuation remains a concern due to low risk premiums indicating market over-optimism [5] - Japanese equities are favored over U.S. equities due to valuation differences and ongoing corporate governance reforms, although potential policy headwinds may limit further overweighting [5] - U.S. equities are underweighted due to high valuations and market over-reliance on a few large companies for performance, with expectations for broad earnings growth being delayed [5][6] Credit Markets - Credit spreads have tightened back to historical lows after an initial widening, with a moderate overweight in credit spreads deemed acceptable in a non-recession scenario [8] - U.S. high-yield bonds have a total return of 6%-7%, attracting investors seeking arbitrage opportunities, supported by improved credit quality and low default rates [8] Commodities - The company holds a neutral view on commodities, with gold benefiting from structural factors and geopolitical concerns, although a cautious approach to new positions is advised [10] - Oil allocation has been slightly reduced due to expectations of oversupply by year-end, presenting a potential shorting opportunity, with risks associated with significant negative spreads [10]

特朗普威胁要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的举动，引发了一个紧迫却可能无解的问题：若失去独立的美国央 行，全球经济和金融市场将何去何从？ 作为抵御白宫干预的堡垒，独立的美联储日益成为美国和全球市场的定海神针——无论是2008-09年金 融危机、新冠疫情还是近年来的其他冲击，它都发挥着稳定局势的关键作用。经济学家认为，央行能保 持局势稳定，很大程度上得益于其不受政治影响的独立决策权。 如今，前美联储官员和投资者警告，一个更听命于白宫的央行可能丧失应对金融威胁的快速反应能力和 公信力。 "任何经济学家听到这话，都不知道该哭还是该笑，"1994至1996年在美联储任职的布林德表示。低利率 鼓励企业和消费者增加借贷和投资，从而刺激经济增长，但也可能大幅推高通胀。"如果你不愿通过加 息对抗通胀，通胀就会获胜，"布林德说。 低利率还可能吹大金融市场泡沫。当投资者无法从短期国债等安全资产获得可观回报时，就会转向风险 更高、回报更高但亏损风险也更大的资产。2008-09年金融危机后对美联储的一个批评就是，它对房价 和抵押贷款相关资产泡沫的危险性不够警觉。虽然并非所有人都认为当时美联储过于自满，但一个政治 化的央行在金融过度积累时更可能 ...