光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-20 英国央行维持利率不变 特朗普继续向美联储施压 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，英国央行将利率维持在4.25%不变，投票比例显示内部分歧加大。交易员预计该行今年还会再降息50个基 点。此外，在地缘方面，以色列国防部长称，消灭哈梅内伊是此次行动的目标之一。而白宫则表示，特朗普与伊 朗谈判"有很大"机会，其将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。此外，昨日特朗普再度抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其 是美国的耻辱，并表示美联储应该降息250个基点。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-19，沪金主力合约开于 786.50元/克，收于 781.24元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.53%。当日成交量为 190490手，持仓量为 161031手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于783.10 元/克，收于 784.06 元/克，较昨日午后收盘下 降0.11%。 2025-06-19，沪银主力合约开于 9012元/千克，收于 8819元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 746980手，持仓量 387527手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,811 元/千克，收于 8,814 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降 ...

IDE GOLD ஜூல 中东地区以及俄乌冲突升级的地缘政治因素抵消了昨日美联储鹰派立场所带来的压力，现货黄金市场维持震荡格局，昨日市场最高至3387.98美元/盎司，最 低至3347.69美元/盎司，最终收盘于3370.70美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向和美债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3361.00-3379.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场上破3379.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3389.00-3299.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于高位震荡，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.200-36.450，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.200美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.800-35.300美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.450美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.900-37.300美元/盎司 ...

| | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 国内期价: 今日甲醇主力MA2509高位震荡, 开2523元/吨, 收2543元/吨, 涨42元/吨, 成交2908067手, 持仓 | | | 909435,放量增仓。交易日内合约均有成交; | | | 国外资讯:据悉,目前中东某国家11套总体1716万吨甲醇装置运行负荷不高,阿萨鲁耶等港口正常作业。 | | 小结 | 【交易策略】 前一交易日, MA震荡走高, 夜盘收于2566。我们认为甲醇短期以按幅震荡为主, 建议观望。近期主导甲醇走势的主要矛盾 就是中东局势的发展，伊朗作为我国的主要进口国，目前受地缘影响伊朗甲醇装置普遍负荷不高，若地'氛进一步升级则甲醇 | | | 市场的过剩预期将在短期转变为竖缺，不过考虑到下游整体利润较差，对高价甲醇的接受程度有限，若利润进一步恶化将可 能引发较大规模检修，引导供需重新平衡。鉴于当前地缘政治不确定性仍然较高，甲醇短期或仍处于高波动状态，建议观望 | | | 为主。09合约预计运行区间2300-2550。(观点评分:0) | | | 建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公 ...

2025年06月20日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：白宫称两周内特朗普决定是否进攻伊朗。据知情人士透露，第一量 | 100 | | | 子在巴拿马矿场漫长的重启道路上迈出一小步，准备发货巴拿马铜矿。华东华南平水铜现货升水 130 元和 | | | 铜 | 元，精废价差 1400 元。周度国内库存去库 0.18 万吨。伦敦结构 102 美金 back。交易策略：美元指数继续偏 | | | | 弱运行，维持逢低买入思路。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | LME 价格 2523 美元/吨。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.46%，收于 20585 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 540 | 元/吨， | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 交易策略：内外盘铝库存处于持续下降局面，现货流动性风险仍存，铝价延续中期反弹的概率依然较大，建 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

Group 1: Defense Industry Trends - The European defense industry is rapidly rising due to geopolitical events such as the NATO summit, worsening Middle East tensions, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased defense budgets across European countries [1][2] - Rheinmetall, Germany's largest defense company, will replace luxury goods manufacturer Kering in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, highlighting the shift in market focus towards defense stocks [1][2] - The overall European defense sector is experiencing a significant uptrend, with companies like Indra Sistemas also joining the Euro Stoxx 600 index [2] Group 2: Rheinmetall's Performance - Rheinmetall's global sales are projected to reach €9.75 billion in 2024, marking a record high, with an expected growth of 25% to 30% this year [2] - The company's market capitalization has surged to €74.6 billion, making it the sixth largest company in Germany's DAX 40 index, with its stock price increasing from €493.6 to €1,747 over the past year, a rise of over 252% [2] - The collaboration with US defense startup Anduril to manufacture drones will enhance Rheinmetall's product offerings in Europe [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The banking and insurance sectors are also performing well, with Santander Bank's stock rising by 55.4% this year, pushing its market cap above €102 billion [3] - In contrast, the luxury goods sector is declining, with LVMH's market cap shrinking from over €500 billion to €230 billion, and Kering's stock price falling significantly [3] - The market is shifting investment focus from luxury consumption to more stable and policy-supported sectors like defense and finance [3]

订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 WTI原油 布伦特原油 金十数据6月20日讯，交易员和分析师仍在密切关注霍尔木兹海峡和伊朗的行动，在未来几周特朗普做 出最终决定之前，地缘政治的不确定性继续推动原油市场的看涨情绪。由于特朗普推迟就打击伊朗做出 决定，缓解了人们对局势立即升级的担忧，油价保持稳定。WTI原油维持在74美元附近，布伦特原油价 格接近79美元，市场仍在考虑中东紧张局势加剧带来的风险溢价。此前美国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗 普将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。 特朗普推迟就打击伊朗作出决定，缓解了局势升级担忧 ...

股指早报 政策侧重顶层设计，A 股仍需震荡整固 2025 年 6 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日凌晨，美联储公布 6 月议息决议维持利率不变， 对今年预期依旧降息两次，但从点阵图来看，预期今年降息 2 次的人 数变得少，相比 3 月美联储官员整体边际转鹰。对经济展望来看，美 联储对今年 GDP 预估下调至 1.4%，将通胀预期上调至 3%。这也意味 美联储对美经济陷入滞涨的担忧上升。之后美联储主席鲍威尔在发言 中罕见提及关税的负面影响。综合来看，此次美联储释放的信号只想 后续美联储不会贸然行动，更多会是数据追踪来决策后续货币政策。 另外中东地区地缘政治继续动荡。从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数收 涨，美债收益率先跌后涨，10 年期美债收益率最终收微跌，黄金收 跌，原油收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指标普收跌，纳指收涨，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡收涨。从资产走势来 看，目前市场焦点依旧是中东方面。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.04%，深成指上涨 0.24%，创业板指上涨 0.23%，市场呈现指数探底回升但个股却下跌 的走势。市场对陆家嘴论坛的 ...

6月19日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至7746.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约报 7723.00元，涨幅1.54%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 新湖期货 国内苯乙烯主力市场涨价抬升 南华期货：苯乙烯观望为主 基本面看苯乙烯近强远弱格局不变，但近期盘面价格走向受宏观扰动较大，建议观望为主，等宏观局势 稳定后再进空单更为稳妥。 五矿期货：预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡 现货价格下跌，期货价格上涨，基差走弱。分析如下：成本端纯苯开工回升，供应量偏宽。供应端乙苯 脱氢利润冲高回落，苯乙烯开工触底反弹。苯乙烯港口库存去库；季节性淡季，需求端三S整体开工率 偏弱，但EPS开工反弹。短期矛盾为中东战事升级，石脑油价格大幅抬升，BZN或将回落，待战事平稳 后预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡。 机构 核心观点 南华期货（603093） 苯乙烯观望为主 五矿期货 预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡 国内苯乙烯主力市场涨价抬升。江苏市场收盘价格在7950-8070元/吨，较上一交易日收盘均价上涨205 元/吨。消息看，地缘政治带动原油大涨，生产原料端涨价，国内苯乙烯生产企业补涨跟进中，市场有 ...