俄方谈判代表、普京投资特使德米特里耶夫也在佛州与美国官员单独会谈。乌俄官员均称，团队将于周 一回国汇报讨论情况。 泽连斯基在外教官集会上说："这一切很有价值……这是乌美共同工作，显示我们接近实质成果。"谈判 团队正细化美方提出的20点计划——该计划初稿因被乌欧指过度偏向俄方遭批评，已讨论数周。他指出 计划"并非完美但确实存在"，还提及正商讨乌方寻求的战后安全保障（防俄未来军事行动）及经济复苏 方案，"基本模块已备妥，是后续基础，但部分事项乌俄均未准备好"。 COMEX黄金期货周一（12月22日）日K收涨，在假期缩短的交易周伊始，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，避 险买盘成为市场主流。COMEX黄金大幅上冲，报收4480.6美元/盎司，涨幅2.13%。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一表示，与美欧旨在结束近四年俄乌冲突的谈判"非常接近取得实质成果"。乌方 由高级官员乌梅罗夫率领的谈判团及欧洲代表，已与美国特使举行多场会议，包括近日在佛罗里达的磋 商。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术层面来看，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上行目标是收盘价突破4500.00美元的强劲阻力位；空头的 近期下行 ...

来源：中国能源网 华龙证券近日发布有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告：2025年前11个月，黄金月均价较2024年全年均价 上涨40.75%，白银上涨33.69%，铜上涨7.25%，铝上涨7.96%。2025年前三季度，有色金属行业实现收 入2.82万亿元，同比增长9.3%；实现归母净利润1512.88亿元，同比增长41.55%。年初至今（2025年11 月底），申万有色金属行业指数（72.81%）大幅跑赢沪深300指数（18.49%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 在地缘对抗升级、全球经济增长失速、资源民族主义抬头背景下，有色金属景气度持续提升，主要金属 品种价格持续走高。我们认为金属景气度有望维持，维持行业"推荐"评级。 铜：供需错配的预期转向现实？品位降低和激励价格压制导致矿端供给刚性，因此铜中期的供应偏紧。 出于地缘政治和供应链安全考虑的资源民族主义人为将供应链进一步撕裂、错配，加剧了供给紧张，市 场普遍预期2026年前后，精炼铜将出现供需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济增速 预期良好，美联储当前"预防性降息"的思路为软着陆提供多一层保障。同时，市场对2026年中国铜需求 较乐观，预期将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was weak with a slight weakening of the basis. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance is expected to shift to de - stocking in Q1 of the next year. Inland, the supply - demand pattern will be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [1][3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market in 2026 is expected to see a decrease in cost and compression of profits, with the price center moving further down. PP has increased supply and decreased demand, while PE has a situation of both weak supply and demand [6]. Natural Rubber - Due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply and seasonal demand weakness, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in a bearish supply - demand pattern with prices continuing to decline. The glass market is under pressure from high inventory, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has supply - demand pressure and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market will continue to trade in a range with weak demand at home and abroad [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene market has a weak supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and price increases are limited. The styrene market may be boosted in the short - term but has an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - The PX supply is high in the short - term, and the downstream processing fees are compressed. The PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets follow the raw material trend. The MEG is expected to trade at a low level [12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical factors and are expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 65 per barrel [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased [16]. Urea - The urea market is affected by Indian tenders. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730 [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 remained unchanged at 2116 yuan/ton, MA2605 rose 0.33% to 2155 yuan/ton. The MA15 spread decreased 21.88% [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased 1.29% to 77.63%, and some downstream operating rates changed [3]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased. The LP01 spread increased 12.86% [6]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased to 0 [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased 0.30% to 63.9%, and the PP device operating rate increased 1.37% to 79.4% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton. Some spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of some countries decreased, and the domestic tire production and export increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased 3.28% to 515,227 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The glass and soda ash prices had different changes. The soda ash futures prices decreased slightly [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash factory inventory and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained stable [9]. - **Real Estate Data**: The real estate new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased. The export profit of caustic soda increased 43.4% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased 4.6% to 32.9 million tons, and the total social inventory decreased 1.3% to 51.1 million tons [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased 1.5% to 88.2%, and the PVC downstream product operating rates changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. The EB - BZ spot spread increased 8.1% [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 1.2% to 76.9%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream products changed [12]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of polyester products increased, and the processing fees were compressed [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased 0.5% to 78.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased 0.5% to 73.2% [12]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil rose 2.65% to $62.07 per barrel, and WTI rose 2.64% to $58.01 per barrel [13]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of refined oil products increased [13]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products increased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The PG2601 rose 1.47% to 4280 yuan/ton, and the PG01 - 02 spread increased 30.25% [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory decreased 7.89% to 261 million tons [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The downstream PDH operating rate increased 2.92% to 75.0% [16]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures market was weak, and the spot price was stable [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased 4.42% to 117.97 million tons [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily urea production remained at a high level, and the demand was weak [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

Group 1 - The mid-term direction of US Treasury yields is relatively clear, with a downward trend expected, although supply pressure may persist in the bond market [1][27] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience short-term volatility, influenced by overseas liquidity and seasonal factors, with limited support from southbound capital [1][22] - Gold prices have absorbed much negative sentiment after a month of consolidation, maintaining an optimistic outlook due to clear long-term fundamentals [1][33] Group 2 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with fluctuations driven by AI narratives and economic data, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][4] - The Indian stock market is in a state of low trading volume and lacks clear direction, with investors awaiting upcoming Q3 earnings and policy announcements [8][10] - Japanese stocks are under pressure due to conflicting macro policies, with the Bank of Japan's tightening measures impacting market sentiment [12][14] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts, with a focus on the impact of upcoming policies [29][30] - Oil prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, with demand concerns remaining a significant factor [36][37]

证券日报网讯12月22日，华宝新能（301327）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，第三季度受地缘政 治、相关政策等短期外部因素的影响，公司成本端面临一定压力。后续，随着公司海外产能布局的稳步 推进以及全链条降本增效工作的持续深化，成本压力有望逐步得到缓解，长期经营向好的基础将更加稳 固。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced a "three consecutive declines," with gasoline prices reduced by 170 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 165 yuan per ton, effective from December 24 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 6.5 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 7 yuan for both 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [1][2]. - The cumulative adjustments in 2025 included 25 pricing windows, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 stasis periods, resulting in a total reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [2]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, influenced by increased supply from the U.S. and the resumption of production at Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, which produces approximately 460,000 barrels per day [3]. - Geopolitical factors, such as Ukraine's proposal to abandon NATO membership and the potential for a U.S.-Ukraine security agreement, have contributed to a decrease in risk premiums affecting oil prices [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the next pricing adjustment, with some suggesting a higher probability of price increases due to geopolitical instability and seasonal demand during the Christmas period [4][5]. - Others believe that the current low oil prices may limit the potential for significant increases, with expectations of a price adjustment of around 40 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Conditions - As the New Year holiday approaches, there is an increase in downstream stocking demand, which may support price and transaction activity [6]. - The recent drop in diesel prices and relatively low social inventory levels have prompted some market participants to consider replenishing stock, which could improve overall market conditions [6].

实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

今日A股市场高开高走，三大指数集体反弹，创业板指涨超2%。沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量1360亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超2900只个股上涨，其中有105只个股涨停。板块方面，海南自贸区、贵金属、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，医药商 业、影视院线、教育、银行等板块跌幅居前。 整个贵金属板块就像打了鸡血一样，集体狂飙。 说实话，贵金属涨没问题，这样集体暴走，属实有点出乎意料。 要知道，今年白银的涨幅已经翻了一倍多，黄金也飙升了差不多三分之二。 这到底是怎么回事呢？ 先说说大环境。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。 而在今天众多大涨的板块中，贵金属板块在近期的表现真的很亮眼。 现货黄金首次站上4400美元，白银冲破69美元，铂金突破2000美元大关，钯金也上窜1786美元，一个个的都在创历史新高。 | 国际当金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4405,100 | 66.740 | 1.54% | 67.87% | | 伦 ...

中辉能化观点 谨 慎 看 空 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， | | 原油 | | 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | 降负不足，LL | 供给弹性不足，基差持续偏弱。基本面供需双弱，停车比例未 14%，检修 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | L | 空头延续 | ...