1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 注册信心 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合同业务资格:证监存可 2011 1292号 問敏波 Z0015979 | 2025年5月8日 | | | | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 19610 | 19850 | -240.0 | -1.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -20 | -20 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 19610 | 19840 | -230.0 | -1.16% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -20 | -30 | 10.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2900 | 2900 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | 2900 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 2025/04/30 230 997 116753 28166 -118.83 721.42 94.0 115.0 -6.80 200150 71050 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 变 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has improved, driving up tin prices. However, considering the gradual recovery of the supply side and pessimistic demand expectations, a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices is maintained. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price is under pressure in the short - term due to the expected decline in ore prices, while the spot price provides some support. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory depletion, easing tariff attitudes, and domestic stimulus policy expectations support aluminum prices. But as domestic demand transitions to the off - season, aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the future. The short - term focus is on post - holiday consumption and the pressure around 20,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - In the pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the zinc price center may shift downward. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Copper - Macroscopically, the issue of reciprocal tariffs is the core variable for asset pricing. The pressure of tariffs has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is resilient. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, with the main focus on the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the situation is stable. With the implementation of Indonesian policies and relatively firm raw material nickel ore, there is still cost support for nickel prices. However, the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space. In the short - term, the macro situation is still uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. The disk is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The ore end provides some support for prices, while the nickel - iron price is weak. In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. Considering the cost - demand game and the uncertain macro - environment, the disk is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is generally stable but fails to meet expectations. The inventory is still high. In the short - term, the disk is expected to remain weakly operating, with the main reference range of 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of funds around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.38%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 12.50%. Import profit and loss increased by 32.10%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 90.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, refined tin imports increased by 12.41%, and exports decreased by 29.50%. Indonesian refined tin exports increased by 46.15%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate in March increased by 8.75% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 3.68%, social inventory decreased by 5.57%, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.98%, and LME inventory increased by 1.69% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 75 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91%. In March, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons, and exports increased by 0.5 million tons. The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.84%, and the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.94% [2]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.09%, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22%, and the import profit and loss changed. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, in March, imports increased by 9.47%, and exports decreased by 77.37%. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 12.83%, the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 9.97%, and the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.20% [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 2.10%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.50% [4]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 25.70%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, in March, imports increased by 15.24%. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased, and various inventories decreased, such as the SHFE inventory decreasing by 23.51% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.32%, and the futures import profit and loss increased by 19.50%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 1.85%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowon nickel increased by 2.47% [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 2.62%, imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08%, social inventory decreased by 1.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.92% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.82%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.98%, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel increased by 1.05% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37%, Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45%, exports increased by 70.98%, and net exports increased by 196.56%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.94% [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.25%, and some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, battery - grade lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.55%, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 0.27%. In March, lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07%, imports increased by 47.03%, and exports decreased by 47.25% [13]. - **Inventory**: In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79%, downstream inventory increased by 27.94%, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% [13].

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a marginal improvement. The supply in the north is tight, while that in the east and south is relatively abundant. The positives include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. The negatives are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, with short - term prices remaining weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. It is recommended to monitor actual inventory conditions and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and it is advisable to consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1] Group 2: Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - From April 24th to April 30th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 22 yuan to 3408 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased by 22 to 112 [1] Other Prices - The FOB price from South Korea to East China remained at 463, and the RMB - converted price decreased by 1 to 4076 yuan. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4260 yuan [1] Production and Inventory - The daily asphalt production is 6.3 (+0) million tons. This week, factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with overall stable inventories [1] Market Conditions - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets have been highly volatile, and non - ferrous metals may maintain a volatile trend after the holiday [1] - The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is affected by factors such as trade wars and global economic slowdown, and the upward space for prices is limited [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: During the domestic holiday, copper prices fluctuated significantly and declined slightly. After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot market of copper concentrates remains sluggish, TC continues to decline, and the pressure on smelters is increasing. The supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively tight, with significant inventory build - up in New York but significant inventory reduction in China and a decrease in LME inventory [3] - **Price Outlook**: After the holiday, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to conduct cautious trading within the range of 74,500 - 78,500 [3] 3.2 Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price continued to decline after filling the downward gap and then maintained a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of bauxite is gradually improving, and the price is gradually decreasing. Alumina is in a state of mixed production, resumption, and reduction. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner after the holiday. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices within the range of 19,500 - 20,300 [3] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic zinc ore processing fee increase has slowed down significantly. Although there are smelter maintenance plans, the impact on refined zinc production is expected to be limited. The downstream consumption is expected to be flat [3] - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 [3] 3.4 Lead - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of secondary lead has been partially repaired but is still in a loss state. The supply of secondary raw materials is tight, but the primary supply remains at a high level. April is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, and the start - up rate has decreased [3] - **Price Outlook**: The market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and it is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 16,500 - 17,000 [3] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: The price was weakly volatile before the holiday. After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the domestic trade ore price may be prone to rise. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported by the high production of stainless steel, but the oversupply pattern has expanded [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to observe. The reference operating range for the main contract is 120,000 - 127,000 [3] 3.6 Tin - **Market Review**: After stabilizing, it showed a sideways volatile state [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore raw materials is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The overall inventory is at a medium level [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase. It is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 240,000 - 270,000 for the SHFE tin 06 contract, and continue to pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4] 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: It continued the downward trend and accelerated the decline after breaking through the support level [127] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the factory and port inventories increased. The electricity price decreased in May, and the cost decreased. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to reduce production, while enterprises in the southwest are gradually resuming production, but the low silicon price limits the progress [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The downward trend remained unchanged, and it continued to decline at a low level [4] - **Fundamentals**: The production in April decreased, and the import of lithium salt is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is good, but it is affected by the US tariff policy. The supply pressure is large, and the spot supply is becoming more relaxed [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to continue the weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production arrangement of cathode material factories [4] 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, the lowest in three months [14][15] - **US**: In April, the ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to the largest extent in five months, and the first - quarter GDP decreased by 0.3%. However, the non - farm employment increased by 177,000, significantly better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable [18][19][20]

Economic Data Overview - The U.S. economic data released during the holiday period showed mixed results, with weak GDP and manufacturing data initially clouding growth prospects [2] - The U.S. Q1 GDP preliminary value declined by 0.3%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.3% [2] - The U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, the lowest since November 2024, but was above the market expectation of 48 [2] - U.S. non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] Copper Market Dynamics - Chile's copper production in March increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a significant month-on-month rise of 20%, reaching 477,049 tons [3] - Domestic demand for refined copper remains strong, leading to a decrease in domestic refined copper social inventory compared to the previous year [3] - LME copper inventory has been declining, currently around 197,300 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has been accumulating, reaching 152,616 tons as of May 5 [4] Trade and Market Sentiment - Global trade tensions show signs of easing, although uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies persist [2] - The market sentiment improved slightly due to better-than-expected employment and inflation data, alleviating some recession fears [2] - LME copper prices experienced fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 3% on April 30, marking the largest monthly decline since June 2022 [5]