流动性日报 | 2025-06-17 市场流动性概况 2025-06-16，股指板块成交4616.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.42%；持仓金额9694.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.31%；成交持仓比为47.49%。 国债板块成交2394.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.54%；持仓金额8331.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成交 持仓比为29.54%。 基本金属板块成交2097.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.50%；持仓金额3901.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.65%；成 交持仓比为77.09%。 贵金属板块成交4715.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.93%；持仓金额4805.30亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为99.90%。 能源化工板块成交6987.66亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.72%；持仓金额3891.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成 交持仓比为131.17%。 农产品板块成交4256.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.51%；持仓金额5499.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.40%；成 交持仓比为62.74%。 黑色建材板块成交2161. ...

Group 1 - EquitiesFirst is gaining attention in the financing market due to its deep insights into overseas financial markets and the rapid growth of potential financing groups in the Asian market [1][3] - The company is adapting to the changing economic environment by offering differentiated liquidity solutions tailored to the specific needs of its partners, including adjustments to loan-to-value ratios (LTV) [3] - The flexibility of EquitiesFirst's offerings has made it a preferred partner for many international collaborators, leading to multiple successful partnerships [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced a low opening on Monday, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3384 points [1] - Cultural media, gaming, software development, and internet services sectors performed well, while precious metals, jewelry, aviation, and aerospace sectors showed weaker performance [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, with further overseas liquidity easing still pending [1] Group 2 - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the market saw significant adjustments in the previous trading day, but fear sentiment has decreased after the weekend, leading to a rebound [2] - The trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating that market sentiment still needs improvement, and the A-share market is likely to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term [2] - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase since the "924" rally, with a wide fluctuation trend, and future policy announcements in late July and September are critical for breaking out of this range [2]

Core Insights - MIND Technology, Inc. experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 10.6% following the release of its fiscal first quarter earnings, underperforming the S&P 500 index which fell only 0.5% during the same period [1] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, MIND reported a net loss of $0.12 per share, a decline from breakeven earnings per share in the same quarter last year, attributed to lower sales volume and increased operating expenses [2] - Revenues for the quarter were $7.9 million, representing an 18.4% decrease from $9.7 million in the prior year, resulting in a net loss of $1 million compared to a net income of $1 million in the year-ago quarter [2] - Adjusted EBITDA turned negative at $0.2 million, down from a positive $1.5 million a year earlier, indicating a significant drop in operational profitability [3] Gross Profit and Margins - Gross profit for the quarter was $3.3 million, down 21% from $4.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by lower sales volume and reduced absorption of fixed manufacturing costs [4] - Gross margin decreased from approximately 43.6% in the prior-year quarter to around 42.2%, showing some resilience despite the revenue decline [4] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 14.4% year over year to $4 million, primarily due to a rise in general and administrative costs, including non-recurring items related to the reorganization of U.K. operations and third-party consulting for tax strategy [5] Cash Flow and Liquidity - MIND generated $4.1 million in cash flow from operations, a significant improvement from a $4.8 million outflow in the same quarter last year, ending the quarter with a cash balance of $9.2 million and working capital of $22.8 million, indicating improved liquidity [6] Management Commentary - CEO Rob Capps described the quarter as a predictable step-down following a record fourth quarter, with results affected by delayed deliveries due to supply chain bottlenecks and customer-side logistics issues [7] - Management expects these shipments to be recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, potentially reversing some of the first-quarter revenue shortfall [7] - Capps expressed confidence in the company's long-term trajectory, citing ongoing investments in operational optimization and liquidity improvements, along with a strong backlog and healthy pipeline of opportunities [8] Factors Influencing Revenue - Revenue was significantly impacted by shipment delays, with approximately $5.5 million in orders completed but not recognized due to timing issues with third-party component deliveries or customer logistics [10] - Elevated G&A costs were influenced by one-time expenses related to international restructuring and tax advisory services, further affecting operating income [11] Guidance - Management reiterated expectations for a stronger second quarter as delayed shipments are recognized and new opportunities arise, citing strong market tailwinds and customer demand as positive indicators for the remainder of fiscal 2026 [12] Other Developments - MIND is nearing completion of an expansion project at its Huntsville, TX facility, which will enhance its ability to provide repair and manufacturing services [13] - The Seamap product line continues to see broad deployment, creating future aftermarket service opportunities [13]

根据人民银行发布的5月金融数据，我国金融运行整体呈现出总量稳定增长、结构持续优化的特征。从 总量来看，广义货币（M2）余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%，维持在中高速增长区间；社会融资规 模存量426.16万亿元，同比增速8.7%，与上月持平。年初以来社融增量达18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万 亿元，显示金融对实体经济的支持力度持续加大。从结构来看，金融数据主要表现出以下四个变化，反 映了当前经济运行中的趋势性特点。 最后，活期存款增速明显加快。5月末，M1同比增长2.3%，较上月增长0.8个百分点。M1属于支付交易 较为便利的"活钱"，反映经济中的现实购买力，M1的增加表明一揽子金融支持措施对提振市场需求起 到的提振作用。相比于新增人民币贷款的同比微降，5月新增人民币存款出现了较大的同比增幅。近年 来我国金融市场发展迅速，理财产品种类日益丰富，存款与理财之间的资金流动变得更加频繁。近期中 美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，市场预期改善促进股票市场回升，但债市收益率有所上行，使得部分 投资于债券的理财资管产品资金向居民存款和证券公司客户保证金存款回流。 总之，当前金融运行呈现出总量适度、结构优化的特征。 ...

06-16 07:01 阅读 1817 2025年下半年全球、中国香港市场和主要资产类别的 预测和机遇。 在去年十一月展望今年的时候,我们旗帜鲜明地提出了几 个与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测：1）美股在未来三个 月左右将出现大级别的暴跌； 2）中国是今年最逆共识的 交易;3)美元将开启贬值的趋势,黄金、贵金属将暴 沿。 这些与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测,在过去的几个月 都 -- 得到了验证: 1) 美股在二、三月份见顶,并开始下 跌。同时,美股四月的暴跌以及伴生的市场波动率历史性 飙升,都是历史上最暴烈的一次;2)中国香港市场是今 年以来表现最好的主要市场之一，同时上市融资总量也回 到了世界之巅;3)美元是今年表现最差的主要货币,没 有之一。从我们预测至今,美元已经贬值了逾10%,而趋 势正在逐步加强,黄金则创了人类历史的新高,其它贵金 属如银和铂金已经开始暴涨。在四月二日美股史诗级暴跌 前、三月二十九日的那个周末,我在深圳和上海两地的读 者见面会上清晰地与读者们分享了我对于接踵而至的市场 暴跌的预测,以及如何做好风险管理的策略(图一) 洪瀬: 2025下半年展望 - 周期与平 衡 (下) 图一: 上半年的 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 流动性：本周伦敦金现价格再创历史新高水平 （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年5月值为49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证指 数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年5月为-5.6个百分点，环比+0.9个百分点；（3）本周 伦敦金现价格环比上周+3.74%。 基建和地产链条：6月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25% （1）本周价格变动：螺纹-2.23%、水泥价格指数+1.86%、橡胶+2.21%、焦炭-5.65%、焦煤-1.05%、铁 矿-1.36%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别-0.07pct、 +0.90pct、-1.0pct、-2.2 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 06 月 16 日 策略周报（20250609-20250613） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.5514%增加至 1.5811% ，较前期增加了 2.97 个 bp；DR007 由 1.5323%下降至 1.502%，较前值减少了 3.03 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差 较前期增加了 6.00 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减少了 8.19 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为 709.14 亿元，较上周增加了 142.27 亿元， 其中资金供给为 1323.94 亿元，资金需求为 614.80 亿元。具体来看，资 金供给增加了 480.21 亿元，其中融资净买入增加了 8.43 亿元，股票分红 增加了 653.35 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎减少了 61.95 亿元,股票型基金与 混合型基金成立减少了 119.62 亿元；资金需求增加了 337.94 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周中信一级行业涨跌互现，市场风格分化明显，涨跌行业数量大致 相当。从上涨板块来看，有色金属和石油石化领涨，分别上涨约 3.95%和 3.31%。下跌方面，食品 ...

报告摘要 （一）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 美国： 6 月纽约联储制造业指数（ 6/16 ）、 5 月零售销售、 5 月制造业产出（ 6/17 ）、 5 月新屋开工、 5 月营建许可（ 6/18 ）、美联储议息会议（ 6/19 ）、 6 月费城联储制造业指数（ 6/20 ）。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 殷雯卿（19945767933） 欧元区： 欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩发表讲话（ 6/18 ）、 6 月消费者信心指数（ 6/20 ）。 日本： 日本央行公布利率决议（ 6/17 ）、 4 月核心机械订单、 5 月进出口数据（ 6/18 ）、 5 月 CPI 、核心 CPI 、日本央行行长植田和男发表讲话（ 6/20 ）。 （二）过去一周重要数据回顾 美国： 1 、纽约联储调查数据显示， 5 月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从 4 月的 3.6% 降至 3.2% ； 2 、 5 月美国 CPI 同比增长 2.4% ，核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8% ， 5 月 CPI 数据初步体现 ...

2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 2 期：资金转流出 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） 资金净流出，交投活跃度上升。上周全 A 成交额 6.86 万亿，较前一 周上升，换手率 7.85%，较前一周上升，融资供给端中基金、两融净流入， ETF 净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 26.53 亿元，再融资规模 22.07 亿 元。市场资金合计净流出 82.66 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 727 亿元，DR007 下行， R007 上行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分层。 利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下降 2bp，1 年期国债收益率持平，国债期 限利差缩小；10 年期美债收益率下行，10 年期国债收益率下行，中美利 差倒挂程度减轻；市场预期 6 月美联储不降息概率至 96.7%。 市场微观交易结构：换手率上升，成交额同步上升。 机构投资者：上周偏股型基金发行规模 12.82 亿元，规模较上一周下 降。 策 略 研 究 偏股型公募基金：上周加仓行业前三：医药生物、有色金属、非银金 融；上周减仓幅度前三行业：食品 ...