Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the domestic economy is steadily improving, while global economic growth remains insufficient, with various risks primarily stemming from external disturbances [2] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is on a steady path, with sufficient support to achieve annual targets, and the effectiveness of demand policies is becoming evident [2] - The global economic outlook is cautious, with insufficient growth momentum, diverse inflation trends, and concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] Inflation - Price levels have shown improvement, maintaining a positive tone compared to previous reports, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [2] Exchange Rate - The report emphasizes the need to deepen market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate, highlighting its role as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic balance and international payments [3] Monetary Policy - The report maintains a stance of moderately loose monetary policy while introducing a more comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the importance of smooth monetary policy transmission [4] Credit - The report stresses the need to guide banks in consolidating credit support and maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, aligning credit growth with economic and price targets [5] Liquidity - The report continues to advocate for ample liquidity in the market, aiming to stabilize the funding environment and improve the overall monetary financial environment [6] Risk Management - The report expands the scope of macro-prudential support, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, and emphasizes the need for a broader coverage of macro-prudential policies [7]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to implement further monetary easing within the year, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments[1] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual economic development goals[1] - The first window for additional easing measures is anticipated in November, followed by another potential window in January of the following year[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The relationship between policy rates and market rates is currently stable, with DR007 maintaining a premium of no more than 10 basis points over the 7-day OMO rate[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach a temporary peak at 1.85%, with a favorable premium range of 30-40 basis points over market rates[2] - Commercial banks' net interest margin was 1.42% as of June 2025, reflecting a slight decline, suggesting potential downward space for deposit rates[2] Group 3: Direct Financing Support - The central bank is shifting focus from total credit volume to structural optimization and quality improvement, promoting direct financing development[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring social financing and money supply growth in relation to nominal economic growth[3] - The evolving financial structure indicates a transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven economic growth, necessitating a broader evaluation of financial metrics[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected financial crises abroad[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Q3 monetary policy report affirms the economic achievements in the first three quarters but emphasizes the need to "strengthen and consolidate" the domestic economy due to potential challenges such as a slowdown in economic growth momentum and the complexity of the overseas environment [1][6]. - Monetary policy maintains the general tone of "moderate easing," with the focus potentially shifting towards "stabilizing growth." However, there is still uncertainty regarding the full opening of broad - money space due to factors like the cross - cycle perspective and bank net interest margin pressure [1][10][11]. - There may be two expected differences in the bond market. One is related to the impact of changes in the social financing scale structure on bond supply and demand, and the other is about the relationship between guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs and bond market interest rates [2][16]. Summary by Directory 1. "Moderate Easing" Re - understood 1.1 Economic Stability and Policy Reinforcement - The Q3 report acknowledges the economic achievements in the first three quarters, with the removal of the statement about "striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals," indicating a reduced sense of urgency. However, it points out that the domestic economy needs "strengthening and consolidation" due to a slowdown in growth momentum and the complexity of the overseas environment [6]. - The report adds "cross - cycle adjustment" to be equally important as "counter - cycle adjustment," aiming to balance short - term growth and long - term goals [7]. 1.2 The "Next Step" of Monetary Policy - Monetary policy continues the general tone of "moderate easing," with the description changing from "implementing in detail" in Q2 to "implementing well" in Q3, which may affirm the effectiveness of the monetary policy implementation since the first half of the year [10]. - The constraints on preventing capital idling have weakened marginally, and the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate has been significantly relieved. The focus of monetary policy may gradually shift to "stabilizing growth," but there is still uncertainty about the full opening of broad - money space [10][11]. - The exchange rate statement in the Q3 report has changed, and the mention of preventing capital idling has been removed, suggesting a potential shift in policy focus towards stabilizing growth while still maintaining some attention on the balance between supporting the real economy and the health of the banking system [11]. - From the perspective of macro - narrative logic and bank interest margins, the space for broad - money needs further expansion. Currently, it is necessary to "keep social financing conditions relatively loose" and give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of quantity and structure [11][12]. 2. Possible Expected Differences in the Bond Market - Regarding the capital side, although there is uncertainty in the use of aggregate tools, there is no need to worry too much as long as liquidity is kept reasonably abundant. Since the second quarter of this year, the capital side has been in a relatively stable and balanced state, and this trend is expected to continue [2][15]. - There are two possible expected differences in the bond market: - First, the current high level of the domestic social financing scale stock and the changing internal structure seem to be beneficial to bond assets in the short term. However, in the long run, there are expected differences. The decline in credit investment may affect the bank's credit creation ability and the demand for bond allocation, while the bond supply may maintain a certain expansion rhythm [2][16][17]. - Second, guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs does not directly lead to a decline in bond market interest rates. The key to guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs lies in structural tools, and the core of the requirement not to issue loans with after - tax interest rates lower than the same - term treasury bond yields is to enhance the linkage between the asset and liability sides of banks and support banks in stabilizing their net interest margins [18][19].

11月11日，央行发布了《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》。其中，一个时隔一年多再次出现的词，引发市场关注，那就是"跨周 期调节"。 央行表示，将"实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营 造适宜的货币金融环境"。 这是央行时隔一年多重提"跨周期调节"，上一次提及"强化逆周期和跨周期调节"还要追溯至《2024年第一季度中国货币政策执行报 告》。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法種法规 | 提高政策 | 股观审價 | 信放改策 | 金融市场 | 金融机应 | 圆壹家计 | 根行会计 | 夜付线 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国际 | 聞局交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 颜洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 贸务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告燃油 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market environment has improved. The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, considering the central bank's bond - buying operations, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse - repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to buy on dips [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Conditions**: The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report released last night sent a signal of monetary easing, and the marginal improvement of the money market today boosted the bond market sentiment, leading to an overall rise in Treasury bond futures. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.7990%, down 0.5bp [8][9]. - **Money Market**: The pressure on the money market has marginally eased. The central bank made a net injection of 1300 billion yuan today. The inter - bank money sentiment index declined slightly, indicating a marginal reduction in capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fell 9bp to 1.42%, and the 7 - day rate fell 2.22bp to 1.49%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The domestic economic indicators have been weakening since June, especially the investment sector has accelerated its decline, and the export growth turned negative in October. Although the inflation data rebounded over the weekend, the demand - side improvement was not obvious. Currently, the combination of loose monetary policy and loose fiscal policy has been intensified. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of loose fiscal policy on the bond market should be limited in the short term. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, and there is support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this was an important measure for the US to implement the consensus reached in the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and continue to improve the monetary policy framework. - The Chinese Minister of Commerce had a video meeting with the German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action to exchange views on China - Germany and China - EU economic and trade issues. - Mexico postponed the increase of tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considered forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to provide a fair, transparent, and non - discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises. The US announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China announced corresponding counter - measures [13][14]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures contracts (such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc.), the spread between main - contract tenors, the spread between main - contract varieties (e.g., 2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trend of main - contract prices [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Involves the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank deposit - pledged repurchase [28][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: Presents the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 12, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB futures rose; commodity futures showed mixed performance, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The PBOC will strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, innovate financial tools, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will strengthen strategic capacity reserves and stabilization mechanism construction to enhance the intrinsic stability of the capital market [34][35][38]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - Financial futures: IH gained 0.3%, IC and IM both fell 0.4%; TL rose 0.1%. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were silver, tin and crude oil. Silver advanced 2.0% with open interest increasing 0.8% month - on - month; tin climbed 1.8% with open interest up 12.1% month - on - month; crude oil rose 1.5% while open interest decreased 4.3% month - on - month. The top three decliners were SCFIS（Europe）, eggs and Chinese jujube. SCFIS（Europe）dropped 3.4% with open interest falling 16.1% month - on - month; eggs slid 3.3% as open interest decreased 11.6% month - on - month; Chinese jujube declined 2.0% while open interest increased 1.5% month - on - month [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Tin (锡) - On November 12th, tin rose 1.8% to 292,440 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions are continuous. It's expected that Wa State's average monthly output will only increase to around 1,000 metal tons by the end of the year. Tight supply provides strong support for the bottom of tin prices [15][16][17]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On November 12th, crude oil rose 1.5% to 466.2 yuan/barrel. Supply pressure persists in the real sector, while OPEC+ has become cautious about increasing production in the expected sector, leading to short - term volatility. Pay attention to the actual output reduction of Russian oil in mid - to - late November [20][21][22]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop (下跌品种) 3.1.3.1 Glass (玻璃) - On November 12th, glass fell 1.2% to 1,049 yuan/ton. There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but midstream and downstream inventories are neutral to high. If there are no more cold repairs before the end of the year, prices may fluctuate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed [28][29][31]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - The PBOC released the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025. It will balance multiple relationships, strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and sustain efforts to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [34][35]. 3.2.2 Industry News (行业要闻) - The PBOC will proactively and steadily prevent and resolve financial risks, expand and enrich the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, innovate financial tools, and maintain the stable operation of financial markets. It will also accelerate the construction of financial market systems and high - level opening - up, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing, and strive to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [35][36][38].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need to balance short-term and long-term goals, focusing on supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [2] - The report expresses concerns about insufficient global economic growth but maintains strong confidence in domestic economic growth, indicating a positive outlook for reasonable price recovery [2] - The central bank highlights the importance of interest rate relationships and effective communication with the market to manage expectations [3] Group 2: Economic Disparities in the U.S. - A survey reveals that nearly 24% of U.S. households are classified as "living paycheck to paycheck," with the percentage rising to 29% among low-income families [4] - The data reflects a "K-shaped economy," where high-income households benefit more from economic growth compared to low-income households, exacerbating wealth inequality [4] - The report suggests that global economies experiencing loose monetary policies may also face similar K-shaped economic disparities [4] Group 3: E-commerce Performance - JD.com reported a nearly 60% increase in order volume during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with a 40% growth in the number of users placing orders [8] - Xiaomi also performed well, with total payment amounts exceeding 29 billion yuan during the same period, indicating strong consumer engagement [8] - Alibaba announced changes to its "Double 11" strategy, including decentralizing traffic distribution to support small and medium-sized businesses [8][9] Group 4: Investment Trends and Corporate Actions - SoftBank reported a net profit of 2.502 trillion yen for the second fiscal quarter, significantly exceeding the previous year's profit, driven by substantial returns from its investment in OpenAI [10] - SoftBank's decision to sell all shares in NVIDIA and reinvest in OpenAI reflects a strategic shift towards high-potential AI investments [10][11] - Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating, citing concerns over its capital expenditures exceeding free cash flow, which may lead to a financing gap starting in fiscal year 2027 [12] Group 5: Fundraising and Market Dynamics - The number of new public funds issued in 2025 reached 1,371, surpassing previous years, although the total fundraising scale is at a new low [14] - The popularity of stock funds has increased, with a record number of stock-type funds issued, while bond funds have seen a decline in issuance [15] - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and oil and gas performing well amid broader market volatility [16][17]

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuation of the monetary policy tone from the second quarter report and the Central Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in the third quarter report, reflecting the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and signaling a subtle shift in policy focus in the short term [1] - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to implement a moderately loose stance and maintain reasonable growth in financial totals, with a shift from merely focusing on short-term counter-cyclical support to also considering forward-looking layouts for cross-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The article suggests that with manageable pressure to complete the annual economic targets, the urgency for short-term monetary easing has decreased, focusing instead on the implementation of previous policies and maintaining cross-cyclical policy reserves [2] Group 2 - The report notes that if economic growth pressures increase in the future, there remains room for monetary policy adjustments such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions next year, especially considering the low inflation and historically high real interest rates [2] - It highlights that there is still potential for adjustments in residential loan interest rates, while the space for further reductions in corporate financing costs is limited [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has subtly shifted its monetary policy approach, emphasizing the importance of both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in response to economic conditions, marking a return to discussing "cross-cyclical adjustment" after five quarters [1][2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, indicating a focus on both short-term and long-term economic stability [1][6]. - The recent report highlights the need for balancing short-term growth with long-term development, promoting an economic model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][6]. - The emphasis on "cross-cyclical adjustment" suggests a shift in policy priorities from immediate responses to short-term fluctuations towards a more strategic long-term outlook [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with signs of easing pressure on economic growth, as indicated by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.2% increase in October, with core CPI rising for six consecutive months, reflecting a stabilizing price environment [5][6]. - The PBOC's report indicates that the economy is showing resilience and vitality, with a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Outlook - The urgency for aggressive monetary policy adjustments has decreased, allowing for a focus on implementing existing policies while preparing for future cross-cyclical measures [7][8]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be prioritized over broad-based monetary easing, targeting specific sectors such as technology and green finance [8][9]. - The approach to cross-cyclical adjustment aims to enhance the efficiency of existing funds and align with high-quality development goals, moving away from an overemphasis on quantitative targets [9].