证券研究报告 盛和资源 (600392 CH) 稀土价格回升，公司业绩环比改善 受益于稀土价格回升，2025Q1 公司归母净利同环比改善 据 Wind，2025Q1 稀土价格指数均值为 176.29，同比增长 5.95%、环比增 加 2.95%。此外公司稀土氧化物、稀土盐类、稀土稀有金属分别销售 3591、 3499 和 4823 吨，同比分别为+40.25%、-43.3%和+44.49%。因此公司 2025Q1 营收同比增长 3.66%；同时营业成本-4.52%，因此销售毛利率同比 增加 7.88pct 至 7.98%。2025Q1 伴随稀土价格回升，公司转回部分存货减 值损失，最终实现归母净利 1.68 亿元，同比+178.09%，环比+47.24%。 2025 年稀土供需关系或改善 据 SMM，缅甸当地要求加征 20%资源税让矿商的成本大幅增加，矿商表示 难以接受，24 年我国从缅甸进口稀土大幅减少。国内对稀土的掌控更全更 强，《稀土管理办法》拟将国内矿、进口矿等所有来源的稀土矿均纳入管理 体系。我们假设 25 年缅甸供应减量，26 年基本恢复+国内配额延续较低增 速，测算 25-26 年全球氧化镨钕供 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The panel industry has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with major companies like TCL Technology and BOE reporting significant revenue and profit growth, driven by demand for large-sized panels and favorable government policies [1][2][3]. Company Performance - TCL Technology reported Q1 2025 revenue of 40.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 322% [1]. - BOE achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10.27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.614 billion yuan, up 64.06% [1]. - Deepin Technology recorded Q1 revenue of 8.312 billion yuan, a 7.25% increase year-on-year, and turned a profit with a net profit of 96.41 million yuan [1]. Industry Trends - The panel industry experienced a "good start" in Q1 2025, with supply-side production adjustments and demand-side policies contributing to growth [1][2]. - The average utilization rate of the industry exceeded 80% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in production capacity [4]. - The trend towards larger panel sizes and the impact of government subsidies have driven demand growth, with main product prices performing better than in 2024 [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a decline in terminal demand in Q2 2025 due to changes in the external trade environment, but companies are adapting through flexible production and capacity adjustments [1][4]. - The panel industry is shifting from competition based on scale and market share to a focus on high-margin applications, high-value products, and advanced technologies [7]. - TCL Technology and BOE are expanding their investments in OLED and MLED technologies, aiming to enhance their competitive edge and market presence [6][7].

Group 1 - The recent decline in waste battery prices has led to a slight recovery in the profitability of recycled lead enterprises, although they still operate at a loss, with losses narrowing from approximately 700 yuan/ton to about 500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The decrease in social inventory of lead ingots is primarily due to weak downstream demand, with battery demand entering a low season and terminal distributors' battery inventories at seasonal highs [5][6] - The short-term outlook for lead prices remains under pressure due to weak demand, but medium-term expectations suggest limited downside potential, supported by the need for battery companies to replenish stocks [6] Group 2 - The recent drop in waste battery prices is attributed to increased selling pressure from recyclers ahead of the May Day holiday, despite prices remaining at 10,300 yuan/ton, leading to continued losses for recycled lead enterprises [4] - The decline in social inventory of lead ingots is mainly a result of reduced production from recycled lead companies, with expectations of a rebound in inventory post-holiday due to weak consumption [5][6] - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan for Shanghai lead and 1,920 to 2,050 USD for London lead [6]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is experiencing a pre-holiday trend, with gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, despite a recent peak of $3,500 per ounce amid trade war concerns. Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of over 26%, making it the best-performing asset class globally [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline, closing down 1.3% on the same day [1]. - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with a notable increase in consumer prices for gold jewelry in China, moving from around 600 RMB per gram to over 1,000 RMB per gram [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold supply is projected to be stable, with total supply estimated between 4,780 tons and 5,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, primarily from mining production [4]. - In 2024, global jewelry manufacturers are expected to use 2,004 tons of gold, a decrease of 187 tons from 2023, indicating a cautious approach due to high prices [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry consumption in China for Q1 2024 was 134.531 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The trading volume of gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 91.17% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, with a transaction value increase of 143.69% [5]. - The amount held in gold ETFs in China increased by 23.47 tons to 138.21 tons by the end of March 2025, reflecting strong investor interest [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise due to ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could further support gold's value [6].

文/曹萌 五一假期临近，资本市场似乎进入了提前放假的行情。就连今年大热的黄金，也已围绕着3300美 元/盎司一线震荡了多日。 过去的一周里，伦敦现货金经历了一轮过山车行情。从大幅上涨到大幅回撤，再到如今"不疼不 痒"的小幅震荡。虽然现在处于冷静期的金价有些无趣，但也让人对后市行情"浮想联翩"。 4月22日，在全球萦绕着对贸易战升级担忧的气氛中，伦敦现货金触摸到了3500美元/盎司的又一历 史新高。但随后便一路下行，不仅当日收跌1.3%，更丢掉了刚刚到手的3400美元/盎司关口。尽管 这波下跌来势汹汹，但国际金价今年以来仍以26%以上的涨幅，坐稳全球大类资产表现最佳的宝 座。 可能按照国际单位计算金价上涨幅度，对于 大众 来说并不直观。 因此，换个角度来看，2024年年 初，北京菜百人头攒动，那时千足金金饰价格不过600元/克左右，而现在已迈入克金千元时代。 伴随金价不留喘息的上涨，你应该会听到身边的朋友这样说："我当时就是买少了。"而无论是真的 投资，还是对金饰情有独钟，涨了，赚了，知足常乐。 金银因其稀缺、可分割等特性自然而然成为了货币的首选材料。但在上世纪70年代，布雷顿森林货 币体系崩塌后，由于美元与黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major rare earth companies in China has significantly declined in the past year, with only Xiamen Tungsten achieving profit growth while others faced substantial losses [1][2]. Company Performance - Among the five leading rare earth companies, only Xiamen Tungsten reported a net profit increase of 7.88%, reaching 1.728 billion yuan, despite a revenue decrease of 10.66% to 35.196 billion yuan [2][10]. - Northern Rare Earth's net profit fell by 57.64% to 1.004 billion yuan, with revenue declining by 1.58% to 32.966 billion yuan [2][10]. - Shenghe Resources experienced a net profit drop of 37.73% to 207 million yuan, with revenue down 36.39% to 11.371 billion yuan [2][10]. - China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous both reported losses of 287 million yuan and 299 million yuan, respectively, marking their first losses in three years [1][2]. Market Conditions - The overall rare earth market faced a downward price trend, impacting company revenues and profits. For instance, the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 26.09% to 393,100 yuan per ton [4][6]. - Supply exceeded demand in the rare earth market, with domestic production capacity increasing and inventory levels rising significantly [6][7]. - The total control indicators for rare earth mining and separation increased, with mining indicators rising by 5.9% to 270,000 tons and separation indicators by 4.2% to 254,000 tons [6][7]. Cash Flow and Inventory Issues - Cash flow for major rare earth companies deteriorated, with China Rare Earth's operating cash flow turning negative at -594 million yuan, a 271.65% decline [8][10]. - Northern Rare Earth's cash flow decreased by 57.76% to 1.026 billion yuan, while Guangsheng Nonferrous reported negative cash flow for three consecutive years [10]. - Inventory levels surged, with Northern Rare Earth's rare earth salt and metal inventories increasing by 18.3% and 78.12%, respectively, totaling 165,000 tons [7][10]. Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has increased support for the rare earth industry, with new regulations set to take effect in October 2024, aimed at ensuring orderly development [13]. - The introduction of export controls on certain rare earth elements is expected to tighten supply and potentially increase prices in overseas markets [13]. - Early 2024 showed signs of recovery in the rare earth industry, with companies like China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous projecting profits for the first quarter [12].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...

2025/4/29 09:58 【国富期货早间看点】USDA 18% CONAB 94.8% 20250429 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆播种率为18%高于市场预期 CONAB巴西大豆收割率为94.8% 20250429 2025年04月29日 07:35 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3993.00 | -2.39 | 0. 81 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 53 | -1.97 | -0. 45 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 61.89 | -2.03 | -0. 39 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 25 | 0. 19 | 0.57 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 00 | -0. 77 | 0. 44 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 50. 46 | 1.53 | 0.56 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 940 | ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...