期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 研究报告 股指周报 市场波动率收敛，股指宜以震荡策略应对 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 上周 IF2505 报收于 3774.8 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.8 点，涨幅 1.01%。IH2505 报收于 2645.0 点，相较前一周上涨 1.2 点，涨幅 0.05%。IC2505 报收于 5582.2 点，相较前一周上涨 101.0 点，涨 幅 1.84%。IM2505 报收于 5885.0 点，相较前一周 上涨 146.8 点，涨幅 2.56%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 （一）、基本面分析 1、1—3 月份，全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations on universal life insurance (ULI) aim to enhance supervision and address deep-rooted issues in the market, including the prohibition of products with terms shorter than five years and the dynamic adjustment of minimum guaranteed interest rates [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regulation Overview - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notification that will take effect on May 1, 2025, allowing for dynamic adjustments to the minimum guaranteed interest rates of ULI and prohibiting products with terms shorter than five years [2][3]. - Insurance companies must complete rectifications for existing ULI products that do not comply with the new regulations by April 30, 2026 [2]. Product Development and Management - The notification emphasizes the need to regulate ULI product development, enhance protection levels, and strengthen account management and fund utilization supervision [3]. - It prohibits the design of ULI products, except for whole life insurance, endowment insurance, and annuity insurance, and encourages companies to adjust surrender fees and policy bonuses to extend the actual duration of policies [3]. Sales Management - Insurance companies are required to improve the classification and suitability management of sales personnel to prevent misleading sales practices [3]. - A negative list for sales behavior is mandated, prohibiting the use of terms like "interest" and "expected returns" in marketing, and ensuring that the insurance protection attributes are not downplayed [3]. Fund Utilization and Risk Management - The notification allows for the adjustment of minimum guaranteed interest rates under certain conditions, reflecting a more flexible regulatory approach to market interest rate fluctuations [4][9]. - Strict regulations on fund utilization are introduced, including limits on concentration and non-standard investments, and prohibitions on complex transactions that could harm policyholders' interests [4][5]. Market Trends and Historical Context - ULI products were once highly favored due to their high guaranteed returns, with some products offering rates as high as 8% between 2014 and 2017, significantly outperforming traditional bank products [6][7]. - However, issues such as inadequate protection functions and aggressive fund management practices have led to increased regulatory scrutiny and a decline in ULI's popularity since 2017 [7][8]. Future Outlook - The implementation of the new regulations is expected to lead to a significant transformation in the ULI market, with a potential shift towards long-term protection products that cater to needs such as retirement and education funding [9][10]. - Industry insiders predict that companies may lower settlement rates further or develop hybrid products that combine protection with light investment features [10].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing significant product transformation in a low interest rate environment, driven by new regulatory measures aimed at standardizing the management of universal life insurance products [1][2]. Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued a notification to strengthen the regulation of universal life insurance, focusing on five key areas: product design, account management, asset-liability management, sales practices, and supervision [1]. - A new "negative list" for life insurance products has been introduced, identifying 103 violations related to product design, terms, pricing, and reporting, which include vague terms, distorted liability design, and chaotic reporting management [1][6]. Product Development Restrictions - The notification prohibits the development of universal life insurance products with a term shorter than five years, requiring all new products to have a minimum term of five years [2]. - Insurance companies are allowed to set a guarantee period for the minimum guaranteed interest rate, which can be adjusted after the guarantee period ends, providing more flexibility in product offerings [2][3]. Market Impact - As of March, 1170 universal life insurance products reported settlement rates, with 1154 products having rates of 2% or higher, and 546 products exceeding 3% [3]. - The shift from fixed income products to floating income products like dividend insurance is ongoing, but the transition is challenging for sales teams [6]. Compliance and Accountability - The "negative list" serves as a reference for insurance companies in product development and is updated annually to enhance regulatory oversight [6][8]. - New entries in the 2025 version of the "negative list" include stricter requirements for product liability design and clearer descriptions for additional premium clauses [6][7]. Consumer Protection - The regulatory changes aim to protect consumer interests by reducing the risk of policy disputes and ensuring that insurance companies adhere to compliance standards [8].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI大幅下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数创2022年7月以来新低。②欧元区4月服务业意外收缩。③日本4月服务业PMI反弹，东京4月核心CPI同比增速自2023年7月以来首次高于3%。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、就业（美国续请失业金人数回 落）、物价（大宗价格回升）。②景气下行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回落）、就业（美国初请失业金人数回升）、物价（汽油零售价回 落）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：日元对美元3个月掉期基差回升，欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差 回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2022年7月以来新 低 。 2、欧 ...

"一步先，步步先；开门红，全年红"是保险业的共识。但今年，这种共识正在被打破。4月25日，金融监管总局发布2025年3月保险业经营情况表，数据显 示，2025年前3个月，保险业实现人身险原保险保费收入1.79万亿元，增速仅有0.24%。行业开门不红背后，有哪些原因？未来保费将呈现哪些发展趋势？ 开门不红，保险增速明显放缓 根据金融监管总局数据，2025年前3个月，保险业实现原保险保费收入2.17万亿元，可比口径下同比增长0.93%，相较于去年同期5.1%的增速，放缓明显。 其中，人身险原保险保费收入增长乏力是主因，同期累计实现原保险保费收入1.79万亿元，增速仅有0.24%。 值得一提的是，按照多年以来的惯例，上市险企会逐月公布保费规模。但今年，个别上市险企不再披露相关数据，业内推测其增速或低于预期。 今年一季度保险业保费增长乏力，这种趋势是否会延续全年？业内人士直言，一季度保费增速仅有1%，对全年整体保费情况可能产生一定压力。由于一 季度通常是保费收入的重要时期，增速缓慢意味着全年保费收入的基础不够坚实。 对于全年保费情况，徐昱琛预测，今年全年保费增速可能会和一季度的保费增速步调一致，保持微增状态。 对于判 ...

信用策略周报 20250427 理财增量买了多少信用？ 2025 年 04 月 27 日 当周聚焦：跨季后的理财规模回暖情况如何？增量理财配置方向如何？信用 利差为何买不下去？ ➢ 信用继续偏弱 当周，信用债收益率跟随利率进入盘整期，但整体表现仍偏弱，信用利差震 荡上行： （1）资金面继续均衡宽松的情况下，叠加配置盘仍有需求，短信用跌幅有 限，信用利差小幅震荡走高； （2）2-3 年期中短端信用收益率及信用利差上行幅度偏大，其中中低等级 下沉城投品种在较高收益保护下表现稍好； （3）4-5 年长端信用收益率上行幅度相对不大，部分中低等级信用利差小 幅收窄； （4）5 年期以上的超长普信继续阴跌且跌幅不浅，买盘力量不强；相较之 下，市场寻求票息且对流动性较为在意的情形下，超长二永表现稍好。 ➢ 跨季后，理财规模增长了多少？ 截至 2025 年 4 月 20 日，全市场理财产品规模合计 30.84 万亿元，较 3 月 底增长了 1.82 万亿元，跨季后的增长规模整体介于 2023 年和 2024 年同期之 间，增长幅度并不算小。 ➢ 理财增配的方向 截至 2025 年 4 月 26 日，理财在二级净买入债券规模基 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The new regulations on universal insurance are expected to stabilize the industry by tightening both liability and asset requirements, which will help mitigate risks associated with the asset allocation pressure faced by insurance companies [3][4]. - The total premium for the insurance industry in the first quarter of 2025 was 21,745 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with property insurance premiums increasing by 5.1% and life insurance premiums decreasing by 0.3% [2][4]. - The average investment return assumption for listed insurance companies has been lowered in 2024, which may help alleviate the pressure on net investment returns and lead to a valuation recovery in the insurance sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index rose by 1.31% this week, outperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Sunshine (+2.64%) and ZhongAn (+2.57%) [1]. Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Authority issued a notification on April 25, 2025, to strengthen the regulation of universal life insurance, which includes provisions for adjusting minimum guaranteed interest rates and investment limits in various asset classes [2][3]. Company Performance - China Ping An reported a net profit of 27.016 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 26% year-on-year, while its operating profit increased by 2.4% [2]. - China Pacific Insurance achieved a net profit of 9.627 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 18% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended order for investment is: Property Insurance H, Ping An, Pacific Insurance, Xinhua, and China Life, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios provided for each company [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) with a current price of 30.82 CNY [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, China Pacific Insurance reported operating revenue of 93.717 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.627 billion CNY, down 18.1% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to fluctuations in capital markets affecting fair value changes, with fair value change gains of 1.655 billion CNY in Q1 2025 compared to 15.104 billion CNY in Q1 2024 [3]. - The life insurance segment shows positive performance with a new business value (NBV) of 5.778 billion CNY, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and a 39.0% increase on a comparable basis [3]. - The individual insurance channel maintains a stable workforce, with a total workforce of 188,000, up 1.1% year-on-year, and a 13-month new employee retention rate up by 4.8 percentage points [3]. - The bancassurance channel saw significant growth, with premium income increasing by 107.8% year-on-year to 25.722 billion CNY [3]. - The property insurance segment experienced a slight premium growth of 1.0% year-on-year, totaling 63.108 billion CNY, with a combined ratio (COR) improving by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance business remains robust, with the implementation of the "North Star Plan" showing positive results and an increase in the proportion of participating insurance products [3]. - The new business value (NBV) for Q1 2025 was 5.778 billion CNY, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Distribution Channels - The individual insurance channel's workforce is stable, and the bancassurance channel has shown remarkable growth in premium income [3]. Property Insurance - The property insurance segment has seen a slight increase in premium income and an improvement in the combined ratio, indicating a solid underwriting performance [3][4]. Asset Management - The investment yield has been slightly pressured due to market fluctuations, with a net investment yield of 0.8% and a total investment yield of 1.0% for Q1 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 4.11 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8 times [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨江苏金租（600901.SH） [Table_Title] 江苏金租 2024A&2025Q1 点评：资产投放提速， 净利差显著走阔 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 江苏金租 2025 年以来资产投放明显提速，负债成本率大幅下降驱动净利差走阔，不良率控制 良好，体现出公司资产端的强盈利能力与风控能力。公司积极回报股东，2024A 分红比例达 53.15%，同比+0.58pct。看好公司在强监管周期市场份额稳定扩张，利润稳健增长的同时以高 分红比例回报股东。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 江苏金租（600901.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 江苏金租2022]4A&2025Q1点评：资产投放提速， 净利差显著走阔 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 江苏金租发布 2024 年报与 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入、归母净利润分别为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].