Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the machinery and equipment investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sectors in both the U.S. and China [2][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: - The Trump administration has implemented a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, effective April 5, 2025, with higher reciprocal tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits, effective April 9, 2025 [2][4]. - This policy is expected to have a substantial impact not only on China but also on various global regions, including the EU, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea [2]. 2. **U.S. Manufacturing Challenges**: - From 2010 to 2024, the share of manufacturing value added to GDP in the U.S. has been on a continuous decline, indicating challenges in global division of labor and domestic development stages [4][11]. - The U.S. PMI data has shown persistent contraction, with a drop to 49 in March 2025, reflecting increased pressure on manufacturing due to rising prices and declining orders [6][11]. 3. **Chinese Export Chain Resilience**: - Chinese export chain companies have adapted to tariff challenges through two rounds of capacity relocation overseas, enhancing their global competitiveness [5][9]. - The valuation levels of these companies are currently worth attention, as they have established a strong international presence [3][5]. 4. **Globalization of the Tool Industry**: - The tool industry has undergone significant globalization since 2018, with many companies establishing factories in regions like Vietnam [7]. - The impact of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. and Chinese companies is relatively similar due to the high dependency of U.S. companies on supply chains in Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia [7]. 5. **Current Demand in the Tool Industry**: - The tool industry is experiencing low demand, primarily influenced by the U.S. real estate cycle and low housing transaction volumes due to high interest rates [8][9]. 6. **Forklift Industry Growth**: - The forklift industry has seen rapid international expansion since 2021, particularly in lithium battery technology, which offers performance advantages over traditional models [10]. - The domestic forklift market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20%-30% in overseas markets in the coming years [10]. 7. **High-End Equipment Manufacturing**: - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector faces challenges due to the need for equipment upgrades, while the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to struggle with declining capacity and inflationary pressures [11]. - Chinese export-oriented manufacturing firms are expected to leverage their cost management and quality advantages to enhance their international competitiveness [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall outlook for both U.S. and Chinese manufacturing indicates that while both face challenges, Chinese export-oriented firms are likely to emerge stronger post-tariff adjustments, presenting clear investment opportunities [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Fuyao Glass [1] Core Views - Fuyao Glass is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by increasing domestic demand and export sales, rising average selling prices (ASP), and significant profit potential in the U.S. market [4][5][6] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in both the U.S. and European markets, with a focus on expanding production capacity and enhancing market share [5][6][41] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Fuyao Glass has shown a performance trend with a 11% decline compared to the benchmark index [2] Revenue and Profit Outlook - Revenue is projected to reach 377.47 billion RMB in 2024, 437.59 billion RMB in 2025, and 500.65 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits expected to be 73.86 billion RMB, 86.29 billion RMB, and 99.56 billion RMB respectively [9][4] - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.83 RMB in 2024 to 3.81 RMB in 2026 [9] U.S. Market Opportunities - The U.S. automotive market is projected to have a production of 10.66 million vehicles in 2023, with 5.47 million vehicles relying on imports, creating a significant opportunity for Fuyao Glass [5][13] - Fuyao Glass aims to increase its market share in the U.S. to 40% by 2024, benefiting from the return of manufacturing and tariff policies under the Trump administration [5][20] European Market Dynamics - The European automotive market has faced challenges, but Fuyao Glass is positioned to increase its market share, especially if major competitors like Saint-Gobain exit the market [6][33][41] - The report highlights that Fuyao Glass's market share in Europe has already surpassed 30%, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand from European automakers [41][43] Production Capacity and Cost Management - Fuyao Glass has invested significantly in expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output to 48.8 million units by 2026 [7][9] - The company is expected to benefit from declining raw material costs, particularly in soda ash and natural gas, which will enhance profit margins [6][9]

证券研究报告|投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 中美对弈升级,聚焦贸易和科技 事件:年初至今特朗普宣布对中国商品征收两轮 10%的关税,中国迅速从关 税、出口管制、法律诉讼等方面进行反击。中美对弈升级,或从贸易摩擦扩 散至科技竞争。 贸易摩擦:风险犹在但可控。特朗普开启贸易摩擦的目的,提升美国内部供 应链安全,预防未来地缘突变导致的极端尾部风险。第二任期,特朗普政府 "制造业回流"的战略地位进一步提升,执行层面或加码,态度坚决,通过 维持各进口国的高关税或吸纳千亿级别的对美投资,构建美国制造业体系。 美对华关税或存在进一步提升空间,但考虑到对内减税和对外关税的关联度, 作者 分析师 汪毅 执业证书编号:S1070512120003 邮箱:yiw@cgws.com 分析师 简宇涵 执业证书编号:S1070524080001 邮箱:jianyuhan@cgws.com 相关研究 1、《政策支持+行业突破 -- 周度策略行业配置观点》 空间有限。 贸易摩擦:综合分析下,在高关税下,消费电子、轻工制造(家具、玩具) 受影响程度较大,而工程机械、白色家电受影响程度相对较小。如何分析 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending termination of the CHIPS Act, which was initially designed to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry through significant subsidies and investments, but is now facing criticism and operational challenges, particularly from former President Trump [1][21]. Background of the CHIPS Act - The CHIPS Act was born out of a semiconductor shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the global semiconductor supply chain, especially the U.S.'s reliance on Asian manufacturers [2][3]. - It combined previous legislative efforts aimed at boosting U.S. high-tech research and semiconductor manufacturing, including the Endless Frontier Act and the CHIPS for America Act [3][4]. Investment and Economic Impact - The CHIPS Act has led to a total investment of $272 billion across 37 projects, expected to create approximately 36,300 direct jobs [5][6]. - Major semiconductor companies, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, have announced substantial investments in U.S. manufacturing facilities, with TSMC alone committing $400 billion for multiple plants in Arizona [6][7][8]. Challenges and Setbacks - The construction of TSMC's Arizona plant has faced significant delays and cultural clashes, leading to a postponement of mass production from 2024 to 2025 [14][15]. - Intel has reported substantial financial losses, leading to delays in its new manufacturing facilities and raising concerns about the effectiveness of the CHIPS Act [16]. Legislative and Policy Critique - Critics argue that the CHIPS Act has not delivered the expected results, with only 43% of the allocated funds disbursed and job creation falling short of projections [21]. - The act's reliance on government subsidies has been questioned, with some industry leaders advocating for a more stable market environment rather than fluctuating government support [21][22]. Future Directions - Trump has proposed converting the CHIPS Act's subsidies into tariff funds to encourage domestic semiconductor manufacturing without relying on government handouts [22]. - The article concludes that the dream of revitalizing U.S. semiconductor manufacturing may remain elusive, as the industry grapples with both internal and external challenges [23].