炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 周二21：30，美国将公布美国12月CPI数据。市场普遍预计，该通胀数据将显示物价压力依然顽固，且 距离美联储2%的目标仍有距离。 根据彭博社和FactSet的综合调查数据：整体CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%。剔除波动较大的 食品和能源后的核心CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%。 尽管克利夫兰联储的Nowcast模型给出的预测略低（核心CPI环比增长0.22%），但华尔街主流观点认为 通胀并未显著降温。 政府关门后遗症 值得注意的是，本次数据的解读需要极高的专业性，因为去年10月和11月发生的联邦政府关门事件对数 据采集造成了干扰。 美国银行（Bank of America）经济学家指出，由于政府关门导致10月部分数据无法采集，劳工统计局 （BLS）在11月使用了"结转估算"。这意味着12月的数据将与较早期的价格（如8月）进行对比，从而 产生技术性的上行偏差。 此外，11月的数据可能受到假日促销季提前采集的影响而被人为压低。花旗集团（Citi）指出，随着这 一因素消退，以及酒店、机票和服装价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has led to a significant increase in metal prices, particularly silver, which saw a daily increase of over 14% [2] - The Shanghai silver futures price closed at 21,004 yuan per kilogram on January 13, with a daily increase of 5.90% and a trading volume of 1,141,819 contracts [1] - The current market sentiment is bullish for silver, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 2,200 yuan per kilogram, driven by geopolitical concerns and heightened emotions in the market [2] Group 2 - New York Fed President Williams projected that the U.S. economy will remain healthy through 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted monetary policy closer to a neutral stance, which is expected to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - The investigation into Powell has caused market volatility, with potential implications for his willingness to relinquish power [2]

1月13日，据花旗集团最新发布的报告，鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及市场对美联储独立性再 次出现不确定性，该行大幅上调了对贵金属的短期展望。包括Max Layton在内的分析师团队在电邮报告 中表示，在牛市情景下，将未来0-3个月的黄金目标价从每盎司4200美元上调至5000美元，白银目标价 则从每盎司62美元大幅上调至100美元。 花旗指出，"投资势头依然强劲，众多利好因素现可能继续保 持"在第一季度。分析师特别提到，由于美国232条款关税决定可能延迟，白银和铂族金属的持续实物短 缺问题在短期内可能会略有恶化，这将进一步推高价格。 另外，高盛推迟了对美联储降息预测的时间，目前预计2026年6月和9月将分别降息25个基点，而不是之 前预期的2026年3月和6月。这一调整是在非农就业数据疲软后作出的，反映了劳动力市场逐渐减弱的迹 象，同时GDP增长强于预期，关税影响逐渐消退。高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克表示："在最新的 就业报告之后，我们认为美联储会等到年中降息，届时通胀将向目标回落，劳动力市场也将找到立足 点。" 高盛预计，到2026年底，联邦基金利率将达到3-3.25%，并已将其对12个月内经济衰退 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming CPI data is expected to show resilience in inflation trends, potentially marking the end of the previous slowdown in price growth [1][3] - The consensus forecast for December's overall CPI and core CPI is a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI slightly accelerating from 2.6% [1][3] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reflect the true price levels after these distortions are removed [3][9] Monthly Data Recovery - Key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with estimates for both overall and core inflation indices expected to rise to 0.3% from November's 0.2% [4][6] - Some economists predict that core inflation may show even stronger monthly performance, potentially reaching 0.4% [4][6] Statistical Biases from Government Shutdown - The potential strength in December's data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection [9][10] - Two significant statistical biases from the government shutdown are identified: dual-month sampling bias and holiday discount bias, which affected November's data [10][11] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists anticipate noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with core goods and services inflation expected to accelerate [11] - However, some analysts predict only moderate increases in owner’s equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation figures [11] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflation pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related costs, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [11][12] - Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation are highlighted, with expectations of price increases in early 2026 [12] Federal Reserve Policy and Independence Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains in a precarious state, with inflation consistently above the 2% target [13] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of recent legal actions against its chairman [13] Market Reaction Predictions - Predictions for the upcoming CPI data suggest varying impacts on the S&P 500 index based on core CPI month-over-month rates, with different probabilities assigned to potential market movements [14][15] - The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring the data, especially the USD/JPY currency pair, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. data releases [15][18]

随着美国政府停摆对数据采集的扭曲效应逐渐消退，美国2025年年末的通胀走势预计将显现韧性，这一变化可能标志着此前物价增速放缓趋势的 暂时终结。市场普遍预期，今晚即将公布的核心CPI数据将出现回升，显示出潜在的价格压力依然存在。 美国劳工统计局将于美东时间周二上午8:30（北京时间今晚21:30）发布12月消费者价格指数（CPI）。据彭博调查的经济学家普遍预计，12月整 体CPI与剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPI同比涨幅均将达到2.7%。若该预测成真，整体CPI将与11月持平，而核心CPI则较前值2.6%小幅加速。 通胀数据的粘性为美联储在短期内维持利率不变提供了支撑。目前利率期货市场的定价显示，投资者并不预期美联储会在1月27日至28日的议息会 议上降息，且3月降息的隐含概率也仅为25%左右。此前的数据显示，尽管美联储在2025年进行了三次降息以支撑就业市场，但在通胀目标达成 前，政策制定者正面临更复杂的局面。 分析人士指出，11月通胀数据的意外走低在很大程度上受到了技术性因素的干扰，而12月的数据将反映出这种干扰消除后的真实物价水平。此前 政府停摆导致的数据收集延迟和统计窗口偏移，可能掩盖了部分真实的通胀压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is weakening due to market concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's "dangerous" fiscal policy, leading to speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as April [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Former Bank of Japan committee member Makoto Sakurai suggests that the central bank must raise rates at least once before June or July, with a possibility of an earlier increase in April [1]. - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate hike in April, which would be earlier than the consensus [4]. Group 2: Yen Depreciation and Fiscal Policy - The yen has depreciated significantly, reaching a one-year low of 158.50 against the dollar, influenced by reports of Kishida's plans for early elections [1]. - Concerns over Kishida's fiscal stance are expected to keep the yen weak, impacting the central bank's rate decisions due to rising import costs exacerbating inflation [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Measures and Market Reaction - Kishida has announced the largest supplementary budget since the pandemic and the largest initial budget for the next fiscal year, aiming for an active yet responsible fiscal policy [5]. - Despite rising tax revenues due to inflation, Sakurai criticizes Kishida's approach of committing to spending without securing funding sources, labeling it as a loose and dangerous practice [5]. - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historic high of 3.52%, reflecting market skepticism about the government's long-term fiscal position [5].

对美联储利率前景有何影响？ 继上周美国非农报告后，市场今晚迎来美国最新CPI报告，普遍预计12月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，核心年率增速从11月的2.6%小幅回升至2.7%。本次数据恰 逢美国传统假期购物季，关于假期购物，可能提振整体消费数据。 另一干扰因素是此前美国政府停摆可能造成统计偏差，核心商品或拉动通胀全面加速，但非通胀压力实际上升所致，主要原因是11月数据因政府停摆的统计 偏差而被技术性压低。因此，这份"反弹"报告的实际指引意义有限，关键在于观察剔除食品能源后的服务类通胀（如住房、医疗）是否真正放缓。 如果CPI显著高于预期：市场将担心美联储降息时点大幅延后，利率敏感型板块（如科技、房地产）可能面临压力，从而考验财报季的乐观情绪。 数据如何影响美股？ 黄金将如何反应？ 黄金在周一亚市跳空高开直接测试4600美元的新纪录高位，若CPI强于预期，金价可能因"降息预期降温"而出现短线获利了结。但需注意，黄金与传统宏观 数据的关联性在减弱。若CPI温和，则为金价进一步上涨扫清了一个障碍。 这份报告是美联储1月利率会议前最重要的数据，在上周五非农公布后，目前市场已基本排除了1月降息的可能性。高盛的基准预测认为 ...

今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报4584.07 美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整数关口 后遇阻回落。 摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报 4584.07美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整 数关口后遇阻回落。 中长期而言，黄金的基本面依然稳健。全球范围内，"去美元化"趋势不断加强，各国央行特别是新兴市 场国家如中国、印度等持续增加黄金储备，显示出对黄金长期价值的认可，这为金价提供了坚实的底部 支撑。同时，地缘政治紧张局势和不断攀升的全球债务水平增强了黄金作为避险资产的地位。汇丰银行 预测，在这些因素共同作用下，到2026年上半年，金价有望达到5000美元/盎司。此外，美国经济面临 的制造业疲软及消费挑战也预示着未来更宽松的货币政策环境，有利于黄金价格上涨。 【要闻速递】 综上所述，当前影响黄金走势的关键因素是美国12月CPI数据，短期内需密切关注4500美元/盎司关口 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. inflation trend is under scrutiny as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a temporary rebound in December, primarily due to statistical adjustments rather than a new wave of inflation [1][3] - The November CPI data was significantly affected by a 43-day government shutdown, leading to distortions in the statistics, particularly in housing-related components like rent [1][3] - Economists anticipate that the technical and seasonal factors impacting inflation will gradually dissipate in the December data, as real sampling resumed in late November [1][3] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that the December CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, remaining consistent with November [3][4] - Market expectations suggest that commodity prices will be the main contributor to the inflation rebound in December, with higher probabilities of price increases in new cars, furniture, and clothing after the holiday promotions [3][4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has indicated that the impact of the carry-forward imputation method used for rent calculations will not be fully corrected until April 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - Some economists believe that inflationary pressures have not disappeared, as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on to end prices, a trend that existed before the government shutdown [4] - The rebound in commodity prices is expected to outpace that of the service sector, with service prices, particularly in accommodation and airfare, also anticipated to rise in December [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in December, with a year-over-year increase potentially rising to 2.7% [4]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-13 权益走强，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号；中央经济 工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵 活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比 上升0.7%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动 ...