Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank indicates a potential for interest rate cuts later this year if inflationary pressures subside as expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Swedish central bank has maintained the key interest rate at 2.00% during the latest monetary policy meeting [1] - The next policy decision is scheduled for September 22 [1] - The central bank's governor, Teden, noted that while some indicators suggest economic activity may rise soon, there remains significant uncertainty [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The central bank is open to further interest rate cuts due to favorable inflation prospects [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report (Gold and Silver) [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Fed Chair Powell's remarks on potential policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure, have raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may lead to an upward - trending precious metals market. It is recommended that investors go long on dips [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Policies - US: The PPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate in July increased. The 8 - month one - and five - year inflation expectations were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected. The outstanding public debt was $3.72 trillion, up $96.8 billion from last week. The Treasury plans to raise cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September and issue over $1 trillion in bonds in Q3. The Fed's reserve balance decreased, while the Treasury's cash account increased. The Fed's discount and seasonal loans to commercial banks changed, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased [7][11][17] - Europe: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMIs were higher than expected. The ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - Japan: The July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The Q2 GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [3] Market Performance - Bond Market: US short -, medium -, and long - term Treasury yields weakened. Medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields declined. The spread between long - and short - term Treasury yields widened. The spread between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury yields decreased [21][25][28][51] - Stock Market: Not mentioned in the report - Commodity Market: Gold: COMEX gold non - commercial long - to - short ratio decreased, ETF holdings decreased, total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads were at a relatively low level, and the basis was also at a low level. Silver: COMEX silver non - commercial long - to - short ratio increased, ETF holdings increased, total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver increased. Silver futures and spot spreads and basis were within a reasonable range [60][79][83] - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro - to - dollar exchange rate increased, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased [54] Investment Strategies - Precious Metals: For gold, investors are advised to go long on dips, with attention to support and resistance levels. For gold spreads, investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for gold futures spreads and basis. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for most spread arbitrage opportunities [3][68][72] - Others: Investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for "gold - to - silver ratio", "gold - to - oil ratio", and "gold - to - copper ratio" [97][100]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following a lower close on Monday, with major benchmark indices showing negative futures [1] - The Dow Jones index fell by 349 points or 0.77% to 45,282.47, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43% to 6,439.32, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.22% to 21,449.29 [7][8] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.30%, and the two-year bond was at 3.71%, with an 84.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming decision [4] - Key economic data is anticipated this week, including Nvidia's earnings and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July [9][10] - The PCE Price Index is expected to rise modestly, with the core PCE index predicted to increase by 0.4% month-over-month and reach 3.0% year-over-year [10] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia shares gained 1% on Monday ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor optimism [6] - PDD Holdings Inc. reported positive fiscal second-quarter results, contributing to a favorable sentiment in the market [6] - PVH Corp. is expected to report earnings of $2.00 per share on revenue of $2.12 billion, while Okta Inc. anticipates earnings of 84 cents per share on revenue of $712.01 million [15] Sector Performance - On Monday, consumer staples, health care, and utilities sectors recorded the largest losses, while communication services and energy sectors closed higher [5] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.034% to $642.25, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined by 0.046% to $570.06 in premarket trading [4] Global Market Trends - Asian markets ended lower, with significant declines in indices such as India's S&P BSE Sensex and Japan's Nikkei 225 [17] - European markets also showed a downward trend in early trading [17]

Group 1 - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historical high of 3.215% amid concerns over a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve following President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] - Japan's debt burden, approximately 250% of GDP, complicates the government's goal of managing its finances as the Finance Ministry plans to request over 32 trillion yen (approximately 217.2 billion USD) for debt servicing costs in the next fiscal year's budget, marking a record amount [1] - The sensitivity of the Japanese market to changes in global interest rates is heightened, as Japan is the world's largest creditor with some of the lowest sovereign yields [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2023, Japan holds 2 trillion USD in U.S. assets, with rising U.S. bond yields contributing to this increase, indicating a synchronization of Japanese bond yields with U.S. yields [2] - Trump's attacks on Cook have intensified his efforts to influence monetary policy, undermining confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment, which is particularly concerning for the Japanese bond market experiencing rising yields [2] - The ruling coalition's recent defeat in the Senate elections has empowered opposition parties advocating for consumption tax cuts, raising concerns about potential delays in discussions regarding supplementary budgets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight pullback after reaching a two-week high, influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and a strong rebound in the US dollar [1][3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On August 25, gold prices fell to $3365.55 per ounce, a decrease of approximately 0.18% from the previous week [1] - The price further declined to $3351.97 per ounce on August 26, reflecting market caution ahead of key economic data [1][3] - The recent high in gold prices was driven by increased expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which saw a probability rise to over 84% [3] Group 2: Dollar Influence - The US dollar index rose by 0.49% to 98.32, marking the largest single-day increase since July 30, which negatively impacted gold prices [4] - The dollar's strength is attributed to a reassessment of Fed Chair Powell's dovish comments and traders hedging against the risk of unchanged interest rates [4][5] - A year-to-date decline of over 9% in the dollar index had previously supported a bullish trend in gold, but the recent rebound has weakened gold demand [5] Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is critical, with expectations of core inflation rising to 2.9%, the highest since the end of 2023 [6][7] - If PCE data exceeds expectations, it may challenge the urgency for rate cuts, further pressuring gold prices [7] - Conversely, a slowdown in inflation could reinforce easing expectations, potentially boosting gold [7] Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical factors, such as US-China trade tensions, are influencing market sentiment and could elevate gold's safe-haven premium [8] - Rising US Treasury yields and a downturn in the stock market are creating competitive pressure on gold, as higher yields enhance the appeal of interest-bearing assets [8][9] - The stock market's recent correction, particularly in essential consumer goods and healthcare sectors, reflects economic slowdown concerns, which may indirectly support gold's mid-term rebound [9] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Despite the short-term decline in gold prices, the foundation for rate cut expectations remains intact, with PCE and non-farm payroll reports poised to be pivotal [10] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating long positions on dips while diversifying risks into related assets like euros or government bonds [10]

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

加拿大皇家 银行资本市场驻澳大利亚和新西兰首席经济学家王素林说，美联储的政治化在最近几个月 愈演愈烈，加剧了美国较高的风险溢价，而预算赤字和债务不断上升、政府难以预测、投资者正在重新 评估美元敞口，都加剧了这种溢价。尽管库克事态发展的条件反射性反应对国债的前端收益率略有正面 影响，但如果在特朗普政府的胁迫下，美联储最终妥协，在通胀居高不下的背景下降息，这种情况将不 会持续下去。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].

Group 1 - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has never seen a president remove a member of its board since its establishment in 1913 [1][4] - The market reacted negatively, with the dollar index falling by 0.3% to 98.187, and the Japanese yen and gold prices rising as investors sought safe-haven assets [1][2] - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar outlook [2][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.694% [2] - Major stock indices in Asia and Europe experienced declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index falling by 1.3% [2] - Market analysts express concerns that Trump's actions could lead to a loss of trust in U.S. assets, which have historically been viewed as safe investments [2][6] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest level since August 11, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts and inflation hedging [3] - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with bipartisan reactions highlighting the divide in perspectives on the Federal Reserve's independence and its role in economic policy [4][6] - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for effective monetary policy, warning that Trump's influence could lead to adverse economic outcomes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and yen [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 0.4% to 147.24 and the euro appreciating by 0.3% to 1.165 [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% from 4.275% at the previous close, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [4]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index down by 1.3% [5]. Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts express that Trump's actions represent an unusual infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially undermining the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment [2][6]. - The market is adjusting its expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [6]. Political Reactions - The political divide is evident, with Republican Senator Rick Scott supporting Trump's actions as a means to restore trust in the Federal Reserve, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns it as a blatant violation of the Federal Reserve Act [7].