据金融界报道，特朗普政府无视国际规则，肆意破坏国际经贸秩序，近日疯狂对中国提高关税。美国白宫官员证实，美 国对中国进口商品征收的关税税率目前实际上已达145%。面对美国单边霸凌胁迫的做法，中国坚定捍卫自身合法权益。 据最新消息，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自近日起对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率由84%提高至125%。鉴 于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 最近，中美贸易摩擦逐渐进入高潮，美副总统的一句"乡巴佬"暴露了美国骨子里的傲慢和优越，也揭露了美国为什么如 此执着于要让中国先低头认输。然而，市场不给美国继续装腔作势的机会了，连日来，美股震荡、美债收益率上升、物 价飙涨、大宗产品出口额暴跌，使得美国不得不尽快调整关税政策，并在贸易谈判中取得成果。这一周，美国接连退了 好几步，不仅宣布对部分国家暂缓90天实施"对等关税"，还对高达3000多亿美元的商品实施了关税减免 毕竟现在中国手中的筹码太多了，近日美国财政部公布的数据显示，2025年2月，美债前三大海外债主日本、中国、英国 均增持美国国债。美国财政部2025年2月国际资本流动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - On April 22, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound, and the benchmark contract closed up 0.5%. The rebound was due to the financial market recovering from the previous day's decline and the US Treasury Secretary's positive remarks on China - US trade [3] - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral state for the report - day's daytime main - contract futures price fluctuations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - DCE soybean No.1 2507 closed at 4260 yuan/ton during the day session, up 119 yuan (+2.87%), and 4253 yuan at night, up 39 yuan (+0.93%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3054 yuan/ton during the day session, up 11 yuan (+0.36%), and 3044 yuan at night, down 4 yuan (-0.13%) [1] - CBOT soybean 07 closed at 1046.25 cents per bushel, up 4.75 cents (+0.46%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 07 closed at 299.6 dollars per short - ton, down 0.8 dollars (-0.27%) [1] 2. Spot Market - In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price was 3450 - 3580 yuan/ton, either unchanged or up 20 yuan from the previous day [1] - In East China, prices in different regions and different time - periods had different basis relationships with futures contracts, mostly remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - In South China, the price was 3350 - 3530 yuan/ton, up 90 or 130 yuan from the previous day, with some quantity limitations [1] 3. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 34.45 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 27.3 million tons two trading days ago [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 15.68 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared with 30.18 million tons two trading days ago [1]

2. 特朗普称美联储应该降低利率，且他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，还表示希望鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动 3. 贝森特周二在华盛顿特区由摩根大通主办的私人投资者峰会上表示，与中国的贸易战是不可持续的，"没有人认为目前的现状 是可持续的"，贸易战局势可能会在 "不久的将来" 缓和。他还坚称，特朗普政策的目标 "不是脱钩"，但与中国谈判可能是 "一 场艰苦的战斗"，双方都 "不认为现状是可持续的"。 4. 2025 年 4 月 23 日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，特朗普希望美元继续保持世界储备货币地位。 以上回应了近期大家关注的中美关税，美元信用，联储独立性，安抚意味浓厚。 美元，美股即刻反弹，盘后期货继续涨；目前中美高关税实质禁运的前提下，已经没有更差了，置之死地而后生，过程肯定是曲 折的，后面只会越来越来好，有没有被错杀的机会？ 1. 川普发表关税缓和言论，抛出橄榄枝： ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他对美联储没有更快地 降息感到失望。特朗普周二对记者说："从来没有(打算解雇鲍威尔)。媒体总是把事情搞得一团糟。我 希望看到他在降低利率的想法上更积极一些。" 上周五，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特告诉记者，特朗普正在研究他是否能够解雇鲍威尔的问 题;在此之前，特朗普在社交媒体上发表了一系列批评美联储的帖子和公开评论。上周，就在欧洲央行 将基准利率下调25个基点至2.25%(约为美联储利率4.25-4.5%的一半)之前，特朗普发表了一篇针对鲍威 尔的"长篇批文"，他在Truth Social上的一篇文章中说，"鲍威尔被解雇的速度再快都不为过!" 特朗普一再抱怨美联储降息速度不够快。特朗普周二重申了这一批评，尽管他坚称，他的言论引发的争 议——这些言论扰乱了市场——被夸大了。特朗普说："我们认为现在是降低利率的完美时机，我们希 望看到我们的主席提前或准时，而不是迟到(降息)。" 本周，在特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔和美国经济衰退风险引发"抛售美国"交易后，投资者抛售美国股票、债 券和美元，金价飙升至历史新高;周一，美元跌至2023年12月以来的 ...

文/广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家 连平 在关税问题上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压和竭力孤立 迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之 间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？ 2025年，特朗普执政后不久就面向全球开打关税牌，中国则是其关税大棒的主要目标。自4月初以来，美国针对全世界实施"对等关税"。针对中国的税率 在两次加征10%之后，又加征34%的"对等关税"。在受到中国反制后，又匪夷所思地将从中国进口商品的关税提高至100%以上，最终成为荒唐的数字游 戏。近日美方又戏剧性表示中美之间可以进行关税谈判，甚至可以在较短时间内达成协议。在关税问题上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压 和竭力孤立迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？笔者将谈些看法。 "脱钩"模式下美方将难有所获并陷入困境 特朗普政府高举关税大棒不可能无的放矢。 加征关税既是手段，也是目的。 一般认为，美国加征关税的短中期动机，一是削减贸易逆差。目前美国对世 界各国的贸易逆差在2024年达到1.2万亿美元。在特朗普看来，贸易逆差即 ...

现货黄金： 消息面：金价在周一上涨3%后，周二延续创纪录涨势。美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的攻击以 及对美国金融稳定的担忧继续推动金价上涨。展望未来，金价可能会出现短暂的回调，因为交易员可能 会套现多头头寸，为本周即将公布的引人注目的美国财报做准备。然而，黄金价格的任何回落都可能被 视为一个好的买入机会，因为中美贸易战的升级和对美联储独立性的担忧将继续困扰市场。 技术面：日线RSI仍高于70，显示黄金短线过热，回调风险上升。4小时MACD严重顶背离，行情随时 会下跌调整！技术指标显示，尽管短期回调风险存在，但金价上行动能依然强劲。如果黄金出现回调， 金价可能挑战欧盘中高点3443美元/盎司；一旦跌破该位，3430美元/盎司可能会发挥支撑作用。个人预 计：高空低多为主。GOLD分水岭：3443美元/盎司！ WTI原油： 消息面：美国对伊朗的压力，欧佩克及其减产同盟国对前期超产补偿计划，意味着全球原油供应趋紧， 油价继续强劲反弹。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减 产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到2026年6月期 间，每月额外减 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined, with the main contract down 4.24% and far - month contracts down 1 - 4%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war has dampened foreign trade demand and restricted freight rates. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rose 7.6% week - on - week. Trump's statements may lead to a decrease in US commodity imports and a subsequent decline in shipping demand. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was in the contraction zone, and the German manufacturing slump may pressure the eurozone economy. In the short term, panic and risk - aversion sentiment may dominate the market, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European Line) futures. In the long - term, it depends on global economic resilience and export substitution effects. If China - EU trade volume increases or US tariffs on Europe are better than expected, far - month futures prices may outperform near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to subsequent US policies towards Europe and China - EU foreign trade data [1]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1456.800, down 64.5; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1625, down 75.60. - EC2506 - EC2508 spread: - 168.20, up 22.60; EC2506 - EC2510 spread: 164.80, down 46.10. - EC contract basis: + 65.20, up; EC main contract open interest: 38691, down 118 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1368.41, down 219.43. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1370.58, down 24.10; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1486.14, down 9.31. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1261.00, down 20.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1273.00, down 35.00. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 11777.00, up 119.00; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - China's financial market has shown resilience after short - term fluctuations due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy. - The Trump administration may scale back US activities in Africa and close many embassies. - Trump claims that Powell should cut interest rates, and the Fed should do so to benefit the US [1]. Key Data to Watch - France's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 15:15. - Germany's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 15:30. - Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 16:00. - UK's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 16:30. - US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 21:45 [1].

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Monday's freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing down 2.12% and far - month contracts down between 1 - 3%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war dampens foreign trade demand and restricts freight rates. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index is 1508.44, up 106.09 points from last week, a 7.6% week - on - week increase. The panic - hedging sentiment caused by Sino - US tariff hikes may dominate the market in the short term, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European line) futures. In the medium to long term, it depends on global economic resilience and the export substitution effect. If Sino - European trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, far - month futures prices may perform better than near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor US policies towards Europe and Sino - European foreign trade data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The EC main contract closed at 1522.000, down 33.0; the EC sub - main contract closed at 1712.8, up 44.10. The EC2506 - EC2508 spread was - 190.80, down 70.00; the EC2506 - EC2510 spread was 210.90, down 22.40. The EC contract basis was - 13.56, up 117.09. The main contract's open interest was 37752 lots, down 37 [1]. - **Spot Indices**: SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1368.41, down 219.43. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1370.58, down 24.10. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1486.14, down 9.31. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1261.00, down 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1273.00, down 35.00 [1]. - **Charter Rates**: The average charter price for Panamax ships was 11777.00, up 119.00; for Cape - size ships was 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office announced the final measures of the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime and shipbuilding sectors. China's Ministry of Commerce and industry associations urged the US to correct its wrong practices, stating that the US measures are unilateral, protectionist, discriminatory, and violate WTO rules [1]. - A German economic research institute's report shows that in the next four years, US "reciprocal tariff" measures may cause Germany to lose 290 billion euros and the EU to lose 1.1 trillion euros, bringing global trade war risks and negative impacts on the global economy [1].

早盘我们来简单的做个解析。首先昨天趋势方面我们强调价格3300上做多看上升，而早间直接开盘暴涨并没有给到回撤机会，直接上前走大规模突破，那 么意味着是否开启了多头的上升？3400难道要直接突破了吗？ 美元持续走弱，黄金迎来新高！ 由于特朗普激进的关税政策和美国经济增长放缓削弱了投资者信心，并威胁到美元长期以来的全球主导地位，美元将大幅下跌。对美国贸易战略和经济放 缓日益增长的担忧，正给美元的强势蒙上阴影，不断恶化的经济指标，加上关税的不断扩大，正在削弱全球对美元的信心。 由于美国总统特朗普正在考虑是否能够解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，周一抛售美元的交易势头增强。 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 对中美贸易战升级和美联储独立性的担忧将美元推至三年低点。金价恢复创纪录反弹走势，并接近3400美元/盎司。在亚洲假期交易清淡的情况下，美元 兑几乎所有主要货币均走弱。美元普遍走软，避险需求增加，继续预示着传统避险黄金价格的好兆头。 因为在日线节奏当中好不容易出现的回撤直接被打破，按照当前的节奏来说4小时是持续性走阳，那么这种连阳行情当中就会担心有阴线的出来。所以恐 高也是在这不可避免的。只有出现阴线修正之后，可能才会继续看涨，所以早 ...