Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the flow of funds from traditional bank deposits to higher-yielding financial products such as money market funds and cash management products, driven by declining deposit interest rates [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB deposits reached 316.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, with new deposits in May amounting to nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 1.19 trillion yuan in May, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 300 billion yuan [3]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products grew by 340 billion yuan month-on-month in May, reaching 31.6 trillion yuan, indicating a strong "deposit migration" effect [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in deposit interest rates has led to a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where both residents and enterprises are moving their funds to higher-yielding financial products [4][6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is closely linked to heightened activity in the financial markets and a shift in fund flows, as evidenced by the significant rise in bank wealth management products [4][6]. - The overall growth in deposits in May is attributed to multiple factors, including improved market expectations, enhanced economic vitality, and increased demand for "liquid funds" from enterprises and residents [6][7]. Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth Discrepancies - In May, RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, indicating a divergence in the growth rates of deposits and loans [9][10]. - The differences in monthly growth rates of loans and deposits are seen as a reflection of the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [10][11]. - The overall stability in the growth rate of combined bank deposits and wealth management products remains around 8%, suggesting a balanced financial environment despite monthly fluctuations [10][11].

债 券 研 究 2025 年 06 月 15 日 债市节奏或向利率债行情切换 策 略 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 联系人 栾强 (8621)23297818× luanqiang@swsresearch.com 相关研究 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 近期债市行情分化，呈现类似存款搬家影响的逻辑。可能主要有两方面因素 驱动：第一，5 月份开始新一轮存款利率下调，市场有较强的存款搬家预期， 而存款搬家往往利好非银偏好的信用债标的，交易行为结果导致了信用债走 势偏强。第二，2025 年以来收益率曲线长短端期限利差持续压缩，目前处 于偏低水平，而信用利差相对而言性价比较高，资产比价效应下，也起到了 一定的催化剂作用。 ⚫ 但实际上，并无明显的存款搬家迹象。第一，参考 2024 年代表性的存款搬 家过程，其影响动力在于禁止手工补息，而非存款利率调降。随着上一轮存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a significant reduction in long-term large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates, leading to a phenomenon known as "deposit migration" as consumers seek better returns from other financial products [1][8]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Changes - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some banks now only providing up to three-year products at rates as low as 1.2% to 1.4% [1][2][6]. - The three-year large-denomination CD currently has a rate of 1.55%, while two-year and one-year products are offered at 1.2% [5][6]. Reasons for Rate Reductions - The primary reason for the reduction in long-term large-denomination CD rates is the pressure on net interest margins, prompting banks to reform their liability structures [1][10]. - As loan rates continue to decline, banks are compelled to lower high-cost long-term liabilities to alleviate pressure, thereby reducing their interest rate risk exposure [1][10]. Impact on Consumer Behavior - The decline in large-denomination CD offerings has led to a "deposit migration," where consumers are increasingly turning to alternative investment options such as money market funds, government bonds, and insurance products [8][9]. - The current three-year government bond rate is 1.63%, and five-year bonds yield 1.7%, making them attractive alternatives to traditional deposits [8]. Market Trends - The banking wealth management market has seen significant growth, with the scale of bank wealth management products reaching 29.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.41% [8]. - Insurance products are gaining popularity as alternatives to long-term deposits, with many clients showing increased interest in savings-type insurance products that offer higher returns [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of reducing long-term deposit offerings is expected to continue as banks aim to manage their interest margins effectively [10][11]. - Ordinary fixed-term deposit rates may further decline, with current rates for two-year ordinary deposits ranging from 1.2% to 1.4% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in bank deposit acquisition strategies, particularly in response to regulatory scrutiny and changing interest rates, highlighting the innovative approaches some banks are taking to attract new customers while managing deposit levels [1][2][5]. Group 1: Deposit Acquisition Strategies - As the June assessment deadline approaches, banks are intensifying their deposit acquisition efforts, with some engaging in promotional activities that have drawn regulatory attention [1]. - A specific case is noted where Ping An Bank offered promotional gifts, such as LABUBU blind boxes, to attract new account holders, indicating a shift towards integrating cultural elements into financial services [1][5]. - Regulatory bodies have begun to restrict banks from using high-value gifts for deposit acquisition, aiming to reduce "loss-making deposit acquisition" practices [2][3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Changes and Market Impact - Since late May, major state-owned banks have collectively lowered deposit interest rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a "deposit migration" phenomenon as customers seek better returns [2]. - The decline in interest rates has resulted in a significant increase in fixed-income products, surpassing 23 trillion yuan, and cash management products exceeding 7 trillion yuan, reflecting a nearly 8% increase since March [2]. Group 3: Customer Acquisition Focus - Banks are increasingly focusing on acquiring high-quality customers who can generate intermediary income, rather than solely increasing deposit volumes [5]. - The article emphasizes that the LABUBU promotional strategy is designed to attract a younger demographic with both spending and investment potential, which could enhance retail business growth [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - In June, banks face certain liability - side pressure, but it is generally controllable. While the pressure to renew certificates of deposit (CDs) increases, non - banking institutions have a need for re - allocation. With a relatively loose funding environment, the room for CD price hikes is limited. A 1Y CD with a yield above 1.7% already has investment value, and 1.75% may be the upper - limit. It is advisable to observe the CD prices in the second week of June and make allocations in the middle and late June [2][29] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Situation of CD Maturity in June - The CD maturity scale in June soared to 4.17 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, increasing the pressure to renew CDs. A new round of deposit rate cuts started on May 20, and theoretically, deposit migration will further increase the banks' liability - side pressure, leading to market concerns about subsequent CD rates [2][6] - Medium - and short - term CDs have a large maturity volume, with 3M CDs having the largest maturity scale. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks all have a maturity volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Over half of the large - scale banks' maturing CDs are 3M, joint - stock banks have more 1Y maturing CDs, and city commercial banks have more 6M maturing CDs [6] Relationship between CD Issuance, Maturity, Net Financing, and CD Rates - Historically, there is a good positive correlation between CD issuance and maturity. The relationship between net financing and CD rates is weak, while the relationship between maturity/issuance and CD rates has a certain positive correlation, but not every increase in maturity and issuance leads to a significant rise in CD rates [2][14] Impact of Deposit Migration on CD Rates - There have been four rounds of deposit migration since 2024. Except for April 2024, large - scale banks' deposit levels returned to the pre - migration state within one month after the other three rounds of deposit migration, and these four rounds did not cause a significant increase in CD rates, indicating that simply considering the impact of deposit migration on banks' liability - side is one - sided [2][23] Analysis of Banks' Funding Sources - Currently in a new round of deposit rate cuts, large - scale banks' deposit migration is still obvious in the short term, increasing the liability - side pressure to some extent. However, there are positive signals: as of June 4, the banks' net lending balance has recovered to about 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the annual low of about 1.5 trillion yuan; the central bank has shown obvious care for the funding environment after a series of financial policies, and the funding environment is expected to remain relatively loose in June; the net withdrawal of repurchase agreements in June may also indicate that the banks' liability - side pressure is controllable [2][24] Analysis of Banks' Funding Utilization - In terms of credit lending, the bill rates were stable in May, indicating good credit demand. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument is likely to be launched in June, and several major financial policies will be announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to stimulate credit in June. In terms of bond investment, the government bond issuance in June is expected to be 2.58 - 2.82 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.22 - 1.46 trillion yuan. Although the government bond payment intensity remains high, the impact is controllable due to the central bank's liquidity support and June being a large fiscal expenditure month [2][25]

Core Insights - The decline in deposit interest rates below 1% and the expected return on wealth management products around 2% is prompting depositors to rethink their money management strategies [1] - Wealth management companies are increasing their marketing efforts, contributing to the growth of bank wealth management scale [1] - As of June 3, the scale of bank wealth management reached 31.24 trillion yuan, an increase of over 140 billion yuan since the end of April [1] - Industry experts believe that the reduction in deposit rates is further driving "deposit migration," making it more challenging for banks to attract deposits, while wealth management products are seeing an influx of new funds [1] - The wealth management scale is expected to surpass the historical high of 33 trillion yuan within the year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking wealth management industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [37]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management scale continued to grow significantly in May, with a weighted average annualized return of 2.57%, remaining stable compared to the previous month. The scale of wealth management products reached 31.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5 trillion yuan month-on-month [1][9][10]. - Regulatory policies are increasingly standardizing wealth management operations, focusing on quality over scale. Future regulatory ratings will emphasize governance, asset management capabilities, risk management, and investor protection [1][2]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued products fell to 2.55% in May, reflecting a downward trend in return expectations [16][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report rates the banking wealth management industry as "Outperform" [37]. Market Performance - In May, the average annualized return for bank wealth management products was 2.57%, with cash management products yielding 1.49% and pure bond products yielding 2.69% [9]. - The total scale of wealth management products increased to 31.3 trillion yuan, marking a month-on-month rise of 0.5 trillion yuan [10]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory policies are evolving to prioritize the quality of wealth management products, with a focus on governance and risk management rather than mere scale [1][2]. - The new regulatory framework will not encourage banks to pursue growth in scale without regard for quality, with a rating system that categorizes firms from 1 to 6 based on their operational quality [1]. Product Trends - The report predicts a further decline in performance benchmarks for wealth management products by 30-50 basis points [2]. - There is a shift towards longer-term liabilities and shorter-term assets in wealth management configurations, alongside an increase in the proportion of equity and risk assets [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking wealth management industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [37]. Core Views - The banking wealth management scale continued to grow significantly in May, with a weighted average annualized return of 2.57%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [9][10]. - Regulatory policies are increasingly standardizing wealth management practices, focusing on quality over mere scale growth, with a new classification and rating system for wealth management companies being discussed [1][2]. - The new regulatory framework aims to reduce reliance on performance benchmarks, encouraging investors to focus on underlying assets and risk levels instead [1][2]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Scale and Returns - In May, the total scale of wealth management products rebounded to 31.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5 trillion yuan month-on-month [10]. - The annualized return for cash management products was 1.49%, while pure bond products yielded 2.69% [9]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework is shifting to emphasize business quality, with a new rating system that includes governance, asset management capability, risk management, and investor protection [1]. - The new policies will allow wealth management products to not disclose performance benchmarks, which may initially confuse investors but ultimately guide them towards more rational decision-making [1][2]. Product Trends - The report predicts a further decline in wealth management product pricing benchmarks by 30-50 basis points [2]. - There is a trend towards long-term liabilities and short-term assets in wealth management configurations, with an increased focus on equity and risk assets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on banks to retain deposits as customers shift their funds from low-interest savings accounts to wealth management products, driven by recent interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Following the interest rate cut on May 20, many customers have opted to transfer their deposits to wealth management products, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping below 1% [2][3]. - As of May 29, the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan since the end of January [2]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is exacerbated by expectations of further monetary easing, leading banks to issue interbank certificates of deposit to alleviate funding pressures [2][8]. Group 2: Funding Pressure on Banks - The reduction in deposit rates has raised the cost of acquiring funds for banks, particularly as loan rates decline, putting additional pressure on net interest margins [3][9]. - Banks are responding by increasing efforts to attract corporate deposits through services like payroll management and treasury management, which are less sensitive to interest rate changes [7][10]. - The recent interest rate cuts have led to a significant increase in the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit, with rates rising approximately 6 basis points post-rate cut [8][9]. Group 3: Challenges in Wealth Management Products - Wealth management product managers face challenges in meeting customer expectations for returns, with many customers seeking annualized returns of around 2.3% despite declining bond yields [12][13]. - The demand for low-volatility investment options complicates the promotion of wealth management products that include equity-linked features, as many customers prefer conservative risk profiles [4][16]. - The competition for high-quality bonds has intensified, making it difficult for banks to secure sufficient high-yield bonds to meet the demand from wealth management products [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adjusting their product offerings by incorporating assets like REITs and convertible bonds to enhance returns while managing volatility [17]. - There is a plan to introduce products linked to gold ETFs to attract customers looking for stable returns amid rising gold prices [17]. - The overall strategy involves balancing the need for higher returns with the requirement for low volatility to satisfy customer preferences [12][16].