2）创新药出海带动研发链需求。2025年Q1中国创新药License-out交易33笔，总金额超362亿美元（同比 +258%），恒瑞医药、翰森制药等与默沙东、诺和诺德达成重磅合作（单笔首付达2亿美元），本土创 新药国际化加速，直接拉动CRO临床前及生产服务需求。 药明康德近日公告，上半年净利润85.61亿元，同比增长101.92%，计划每10股派发现金红利3.5元（含 税）。公司预计2025年整体收入从人民币415-430亿元上调至人民币425-435亿元。 光大证券指出，药明康德作为CRO行业龙头，交出"史上最强"半年报，显示出行业需求的强劲。其收入 上调预期，表明业务拓展顺利，对CRO行业有积极示范效应。 从行业来看，CRO行业正在迎来三大复苏信号： 1）全球外包渗透率提升。全球药企研发成本攀升推动外包需求，2025年上半年，国内CRO企业普遍呈 现订单高增、产能扩张的态势；药明康德上调收入指引，验证行业需求确定性。 本文源自：金融界 3）政策与资本双支撑。国内医保局推动创新药审评审批提速，欧美暂缓《生物安全法案》至2032年， 地缘政治风险短期缓和，利好创新药行业。 展望后市，CRO、CDMO板块自2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug-themed ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with six ETFs increasing over 100% this year, all belonging to the innovative drug sector [1][4]. - The top-performing ETFs on July 29 include various innovative drug-themed ETFs, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF rising by 5.06%, marking it as the largest gainer of the day [4][6]. - The innovative drug sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" due to supportive policies, international breakthroughs, improved R&D efficiency, and continuous capital inflow, indicating a shift from defensive to offensive investment strategies [4][5]. Group 2 - On July 29, ten ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF and the Hong Kong Securities ETF being particularly active [3][9]. - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF has seen significant growth, with its scale reaching 10.31 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of over 750% [5]. - The bond ETFs have also attracted substantial inflows, with the South China Science and Technology Bond ETF leading with a net inflow of 25.56 billion yuan on the previous trading day [11][12]. Group 3 - The largest drop in ETFs on July 29 was observed in the 180 Governance ETF, which fell by 2.71%, alongside several other cross-border and bank-themed ETFs [2][8]. - The trading activity indicates a strong market liquidity, with the average daily transaction volume for the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF exceeding 11 billion yuan in July [5]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations for indices to continue reaching new highs in the second half of the year, supported by domestic policies and liquidity [13].

港股今日低开低走，三大指数盘中均一度跌超1%，尾盘跌幅则有所收窄。截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.15% 或37.68点，报25524.45点，全日成交额为2670.1亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.34%，报9145.92点；恒生科 技指数跌0.35%，报5644.38点。 申万宏源认为，近期国内中长期改革政策加速兑现，供给侧政策（以反内卷为代表）和需求侧政策（以 生育支持政策为代表）相互配合，将有效改善宏观经济和企业盈利预期，显著提振中国资本市场的长期 信心。继续看好港股是潜在牛市中领涨市场，"牛市氛围"强化后，投资者在港股进行行业轮动会更加积 极。 蓝筹股表现 药明康德（603259）(02359)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨11.25%，报111.7港元，成交额30.23亿港元，贡献 恒指6.33点。药明康德发布2025年上半年业绩，公司实现收入207.99亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增加 20.6%；母公司持有者的应占净溢利82.87亿元，同比增加95.5%。报告期内，公司持续经营收入204.1亿 元，其中来自美国客户收入140.3亿元，同比增长38.4%。此外，公司还宣布上调全年业绩指引。 其他蓝筹股方面，石药集团(0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.15% at 25,524.45 points, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic due to accelerating domestic reform policies that are expected to improve macroeconomic conditions and corporate earnings expectations [1] Group 1: Blue Chip Performance - WuXi AppTec (02359) led the blue-chip stocks, rising 11.25% to HKD 111.7, contributing 6.33 points to the Hang Seng Index, with a reported revenue of RMB 20.799 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [2][4] - Other blue-chip stocks included CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) up 8.46% and Zhongsheng Group (00881) up 6.23%, while Xiaomi (01810) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) saw declines of 2.64% and 1.91%, respectively [2] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The biopharmaceutical sector saw a resurgence, with WuXi AppTec's strong interim results and upgraded annual guidance driving significant gains in the CRO sector [3][4] - The photovoltaic sector also showed recovery, with GCL-Poly Energy (03800) rising 7.69%, supported by government policies aimed at improving industry standards and eliminating excess capacity [6] Group 3: Childcare Policy Impact - The newly announced national childcare subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of RMB 3,600 for families with children under three years old, which is expected to boost consumer spending in the maternal and infant sectors [5][6] Group 4: Notable Stock Movements - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a significant increase of 12.55%, attributed to advancements in various technology sectors [7] - Shanghai Fudan (01385) rose 9.87% following a technology service contract with Fudan University to develop advanced FPGA technology [8] - Goodbaby International (01086) issued a profit warning, expecting a decline in net profit by 40% to 50% despite slight revenue growth [11]

Group 1 - CRO concept stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with WuXi AppTec (药明康德) rising by 9.66% to HKD 110.1, Tigermed (泰格医药) up 8.14% to HKD 57.8, and others also experiencing significant gains [1] - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of RMB 20.799 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.287 billion, up 95.5% year-on-year [1] - The company announced an upward revision of its full-year performance guidance, expecting a revenue range of RMB 42.5-43.5 billion, with a growth rate adjustment from 10-15% to 13-17% [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities indicated that the CXO sector is gradually emerging from a low point, with several companies showing signs of recovery, supported by favorable factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improved financing conditions in the pharmaceutical sector [2] - Zhongtai Securities noted that the CRO and CDMO sectors are expected to see a gradual recovery in demand due to multiple catalysts, including the onset of overseas interest rate cuts in Q4 2024 and significant policy developments in 2025 [2] - The sector is anticipated to experience a "Davis Double Play" with simultaneous improvements in profitability and valuation, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities within this space [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2024, there have been continuous catalysts on both the supply and demand sides of the chemical sector. The current "anti - involution" market adds to its momentum. The chemical convertible bond market is still promising in the future, with positive fundamentals, favorable debt - conversion measures, and the "asymmetry" of small - cap convertible bonds [1][15] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Characteristics of Chemical Convertible Bonds - **Issued at the Cycle Peak**: Over half of the chemical convertible bonds were issued during the 2020 - 2021 chemical bull market, often at the end or after the bull market. This leads to high conversion prices, difficult price - downward revisions, and concerns about credit risks. Bonds issued at the cycle bottom also have their own disadvantages [16] - **Mostly Small - cap Bonds and Small - market - value Targets**: Chemical convertible bonds are mostly small - cap bonds under 1 billion yuan. Small - cap and high - rated bonds are more likely to become bull bonds due to factors such as the company's solvency, institutional investment preferences, and market conditions [17] - **Low Institutional Attention on Underlying Stocks**: The proportion of chemical stocks and convertible bonds in the overall public fund net worth is relatively low, indicating weak short - selling power and accumulating long - buying factors [20] - **Rapid and Short - lived Market**: For chemical targets with strong cyclical characteristics, the market is often rapid and short - lived. Convertible bonds in this category are cautious about forced redemptions to avoid losing debt - conversion opportunities [26] - **Positive Debt - conversion Measures**: Many bonds issued during the 200 - 2021 bull market are now approaching the put - back period, so chemical companies are more active in debt - conversion. "Downward revision" is a powerful debt - conversion tool for near - maturity convertible bonds [27] 2. How to Seize the Opportunities of Expectation Differences in Chemical Convertible Bonds - **From the Perspective of the Sector**: The chemical sector has low institutional attention, large expectation differences, and potential for excess returns. It is difficult to make sector - wide allocations due to product differentiation and small single - bond scale. Many conservative funds are restricted from participating [29] - **From the Perspective of Convertible Bond Characteristics**: Below 130 yuan, the bonds rely on the "willingness to promote conversion", and the "reason for the rise" is crucial. Above 130 yuan, they depend on the alpha of the underlying stock and the capital structure, and the non - forced redemption and reduction of the convertible bond balance can open up the upward price space [31] - **From the Fundamental Perspective**: The common differences in chemical companies are "sustainability, amplitude, and performance realization". The reasons include concerns about downstream acceptance of price increases and the potential restart of idle production lines. Currently, the market is in the first stage, and the third - quarter report and spot prices are important references [35] 3. Tracking Ideas at Present - **Low - valued Underlying Stocks + "Asymmetry" of Convertible Bonds**: This is a high - probability choice. For companies with losses or small profits in the 2024 annual report, PB(LF) is used for measurement; for companies with normal profits, PE quantiles are used. Attention should be paid to market liquidity and cycle bottom judgment [39] - **Low - inventory Varieties**: Varieties with low inventory are more likely to increase in price when affected by supply or demand changes. Some chemical convertible bond companies' products such as viscose filament, silicone DMC, etc., have relatively low inventory and high operating rates. Attention should be paid to subsequent catalysts [42] - **Layout in Growth Sectors**: With the emergence of new downstream industrial trends, many chemical companies are actively deploying new products, which can bring opportunities for "valuation expansion" and new demand. Attention should be paid to technological breakthroughs and performance realization [44] - **Select Targets with Bargaining Power**: Companies with simple main businesses and good industry structures, as well as those with technological or industrial - chain advantages, are more likely to benefit from price increases and cost advantages [45] - **Seek the Bottom - position Attributes of Large - cap Convertible Bonds of Leading Blue - chip Stocks**: In 2025, the scale of financial bonds has shrunk significantly, while the participation in convertible bond assets has increased. Funds are looking for large - scale, low - risk convertible bonds as bottom - position assets [48] - **Emphasize the Elasticity of Small - market - value and Small - cap Bonds**: The "shell resource value" has become prominent. Small - cap convertible bonds can bring good returns in a trending market, but their performance is affected by factors such as market liquidity, credit risks, and economic expectations [49]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in the activity of computing hardware stocks, particularly in the PCB and optical module sectors, driven by the acceleration of AI commercialization and rising PE valuations [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Computing hardware stocks were notably active in early trading, with several companies experiencing gains of over 5% [1] - Junya Technology reached its daily limit up, while Shenghong Technology, Xingsen Technology, Guangxun Technology, Shiyun Circuit, and Jingwang Electronics all saw increases exceeding 5% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Changjiang Securities, the AI industry is entering a "Davis Double Play" phase, indicating a rapid monetization of AI that is boosting PE valuations [1] - The report emphasizes that the penetration rate of ASICs is increasing, leading to a significant rise in the value share of network communication segments such as optical modules [1]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Weichuang Electric (688698) driven by its comprehensive robot layout and core component orders for humanoid robots, with projected revenue growth rates of 23.2%, 23.6%, and 22.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] - The report emphasizes the undervaluation of GF Securities (000776), noting its balanced business structure and strong profitability, with expected revenue growth rates of 12.3%, 12.9%, and 14.1% from 2025 to 2027 [7][8] Group 2: Market Insights - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the Shanghai Composite Index may aim to surpass its previous high of 3674 points, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and a potential appreciation of the RMB against the USD [9] - The report suggests a strategic shift in bank investments from large to smaller banks to enhance portfolio flexibility, while maintaining exposure to the brokerage sector to mitigate upward risks [9] Group 3: Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by improved market sentiment, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts, with recommendations to focus on undervalued leading companies and low PS/PB elastic varieties [13][14] - The report notes that the gaming and social business of ShengTian Network (300494) is expected to benefit from self-built computing power and self-developed AI platforms, with new game launches anticipated to boost profit levels in 2025 [10][11]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is a leading private brokerage firm with optimized governance structure and a potential for a "Davis Double" effect [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are gradually emerging from a long bull market, and the brokerage sector may welcome a new wave of innovation encouragement [1][2] - The company has a balanced business structure and excellent profitability, with a leading position in wealth management and a recovering investment banking business [1] Market and Policy Drivers - Market factors include the internationalization of the RMB, which is expected to drive a systematic revaluation of RMB assets, alongside domestic liquidity easing [1] - Policy support is anticipated to continue, benefiting brokerages as key participants in the capital and monetary markets [1][2] - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double" effect in terms of valuation and performance [1] Financial Forecasts - Projected net profit growth rates for 2025E-2027E are 23.9%, 16.4%, and 15.3% respectively [2][8] - The current price corresponds to a 2025 PB of 1.2x, which is below the average valuation of 1.4x for the brokerage sector [2] Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price is set at 27.18 CNY based on a 1.5x PB for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 36% [3]