Core Insights - The report emphasizes that despite short-term risks, the long-term logic remains intact, with a focus on AI as a key variable in the context of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - The performance of growth styles is recovering, driven primarily by technology, with expectations for a style shift from growth to value around mid-2026 [3][4] - The report suggests that the current AI hardware risk-reward ratio is declining, but technology remains the preferred direction for investment [2][9] AI Hardware and Market Dynamics - The current market is highly concentrated on AI upstream hardware leaders, leading to amplified impacts from a few stocks on the overall market [2] - If market volume is sufficient, this direction may continue to drive the market to new highs; however, reduced volume could increase risks associated with high leverage [2] - The report draws parallels to 2023, where stocks like CPO and NVIDIA saw significant upward trends, with CPO outperforming NVIDIA by a substantial margin [2][3] Seasonal Trends and Investment Strategies - Historical data indicates that in the fourth quarter, funds typically shift towards more stable sectors, with financials and stable styles outperforming [4][5] - The report anticipates an early onset of the spring rally, driven by early recognition of seasonal patterns among market participants [5] - The report suggests that the AI application sector can be viewed as a "call option," with potential for significant upside once key industry events occur [8][9] AI Applications and Future Opportunities - The report highlights that the AI application sector is expected to see mid-term certainty and broader opportunities compared to upstream hardware [7][9] - It identifies several promising areas for investment, including AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military applications, AIGC, media and gaming, AI edge computing, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [9][10] - The report notes that while the AI software application market has not yet seen widespread impactful products, recent advancements in large models and domestic initiatives signal potential growth [9][10] Specific Company Insights - The report lists various companies involved in AI applications, including Han's Information, Youfu Network, and Kingsoft Office, among others, with market capitalizations ranging from 88.1 million to 4,207.6 million [23] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that are actively developing AI applications, particularly in the context of emerging technologies and market demands [9][23]

Group 1 - The article predicts that the convertible bond market will continue to experience fluctuations in the next one to two weeks, laying a foundation for the year-end market trend [1] - The recent A-share market has undergone a significant adjustment, influenced by both internal and external factors, with convertible bonds showing relative resilience [1] - External factors include volatility in the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has suppressed risk appetite in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is expected to enter a "spring rally" layout window in December, with institutional investors likely to shift from defensive sectors to those with high growth certainty for 2026 [2] - Key catalysts for market recovery may include the release of policy signals, particularly from the Central Economic Work Conference typically held in mid-December [2] - The article recommends a defensive investment strategy while also considering structural opportunities, with a focus on technology growth sectors, high-end manufacturing, and green energy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market adjustments, insurance asset management institutions remain optimistic about future investment opportunities in the stock market, anticipating a potential early onset of the "spring rally" [1][2]. Market Conditions - Recent market adjustments are primarily reflections of external market fluctuations, including changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market [2]. - The fundamental market conditions have not changed significantly, with adjustments driven by shifts in funding, technology, sentiment, and expectations [2]. Investment Strategies - Insurance institutions are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in dividend strategies within sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and transportation, while also identifying excess return opportunities in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - Despite market pullbacks in November, insurance institutions have actively engaged in research, with over 70 institutions participating in more than 280 research activities, focusing on technology and pharmaceuticals [2]. Asset Allocation Trends - To address the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment, insurance institutions are consistently increasing their allocation to high-quality equity assets, with stock investment balances reaching approximately 2,086 billion and 34,124 billion for property and life insurance companies, respectively, marking increases of about 30.29% and 50.47% year-over-year [3]. - The proportion of equity asset allocation by insurance institutions has reached a relatively high level of 10%, benefiting from both market growth and increased allocation willingness [3]. Regulatory and Market Drivers - The continuous increase in equity asset allocation by insurance institutions is driven by supportive policies and asset-liability matching requirements, with regulatory encouragement for private fund establishment and risk factor optimization opening up market opportunities [4]. - As traditional fixed-income assets fail to meet liability cost requirements, increasing equity asset allocation has become a crucial strategy for insurance institutions to enhance investment returns [4].

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since October 2025, price increases have gained attention, particularly in the fields of new energy, AI, and certain black, non-ferrous, and chemical products, with many areas experiencing transaction congestion close to historically high levels [4][10][12] - Historical cases indicate that price increases driven solely by sentiment or expectations typically reach a peak when congestion levels hit 90-100%, leading to a phase of adjustment, and subsequent rebounds are unlikely to surpass previous highs without additional supporting logic [14][16] - For price increases to break previous highs after an adjustment, they usually require new incremental logic support, such as a shift from expectation to reality in economic verification or the emergence of new catalysts [14][16] Group 2 - The report identifies two main areas where price increases are likely to continue: industrial metals, driven by global economic recovery expectations and supply constraints, and the AI chain, which remains a direction with confirmed economic prospects and potential incremental catalysts [51][52] - Strong sectors often reach a stage of congestion bottom when sentiment (transaction share) declines to 50-70% of previous highs, presenting a good buying opportunity [52] - The report suggests monitoring the TMT sector's transaction share to determine when it returns to the 20-25% range, indicating a potential buying point, while the Hang Seng Technology sector should be observed for a return to the 30-35% range [60][66] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical adjustment patterns of major technology sectors, noting that the average adjustment period is around 40 trading days, with an average absolute decline of approximately 15% [71][72] - The current adjustment in major technology sectors has seen declines of 15-20%, nearing historical averages, but the adjustment duration has been shorter than the historical average, suggesting a need for patience [71][72] - The report recommends continuing to allocate resources according to calendar effects, particularly in banking and white goods, while observing potential shifts in growth styles as economic data is released [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The coal, chemical, and energy sectors are showing strength against the market trend, with various ETFs in these sectors rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal ETFs, chemical ETFs, and petrochemical ETFs have all increased by more than 2%, while rare metals and energy ETFs have risen over 1.5% [1] - The strong performance in these sectors is attributed to a combination of seasonal demand and supply constraints due to weather and regulatory factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A "rapid freeze" weather pattern is expected to impact the northern and southern regions of China, leading to increased winter storage and replenishment needs [1] - Continuous abnormal autumn rains in major coal-producing areas and deepening production restrictions are expected to tighten supply further [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Pacific Securities anticipates that the strong performance of traditional sectors like coal will not be a short-lived phenomenon, predicting renewed market attention over the next quarter [1] - The report suggests that sectors such as coal, banking, photovoltaic, aquaculture, and nuclear power are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [1] - The current high absorption rate in technology sectors indicates that chasing high returns may be challenging, reinforcing the potential for gains in undervalued sectors [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Zhongyin Securities believes that there is only a rotation of styles rather than a complete switch, indicating that the current market adjustments do not signal panic [2] - The anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market may begin as early as December, contingent on sufficient prior adjustment space [2] - The report emphasizes that the current adjustments in the technology growth style are healthy and may create favorable conditions for future performance [2]

Market Performance - On October 21, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% to 3916.33 points, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 2.06% to 13077.32 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 3.02% to 3083.72 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8927 trillion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4600 stocks rising [2] International Market Overview - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 46924.74 points, while the S&P 500 saw a slight increase of 0.22% to 6735.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% to 22953.67 points [4][5] - European markets also experienced gains, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.25%, the CAC 40 rising by 0.64%, and the DAX increasing by 0.29% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.52% to $57.82 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.51% to $61.32 per barrel [4] - Conversely, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by 5.07% to $4138.50 per ounce, marking one of the largest single-day declines since April 2013 [4][5] Key Economic Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a video conference discussing key trade issues with the EU, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and the need to address trade frictions [6] - The Ukrainian President announced readiness to end the conflict with Russia, indicating a potential shift in geopolitical stability [7] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on a "Computing Power Standard System Construction Guide" aiming to establish over 50 standards by 2027 to enhance the computing power industry [8] - Guangdong Province has introduced a plan to support the application of intelligent computing power in manufacturing, promoting the development of industrial software and smart equipment [9] Tourism Sector Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism in China saw 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with total spending reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% from the previous year [10] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyin International noted that the current market is experiencing style rotation rather than a complete style switch, suggesting a potential "spring rally" could begin as early as December [11] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that market behavior in the fourth quarter may become more conservative, with a focus on large-cap blue chips reflecting a shift in investor risk appetite [12] Company Announcements - China Telecom reported a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [13] - Other companies such as Wanchen Group and Xinjian Union reported significant profit increases, while Wen's shares saw a notable decline in net profit [14]

Market Overview - A-shares opened high and fluctuated, with the ChiNext Index fiercely contesting around the 3000-point mark, while over 4100 stocks declined, leading to a trading volume drop to 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest in two and a half months [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3936.58, with a trading volume of 772.5 billion yuan, and a slight increase of 0.63% [2] Sector Performance - The electronic industry saw a net inflow of over 13.1 billion yuan, while power equipment attracted over 9.5 billion yuan. Other sectors like machinery, communication, and transportation also received significant inflows [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a net outflow of over 1.6 billion yuan, along with other sectors like non-bank financials and food and beverage [3] Investment Sentiment - Current market sentiment is relatively high, making it sensitive to negative factors. The pace of domestic capital entering the market may slow down as year-end profit-taking occurs [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the technology growth style are healthy and may create favorable conditions for a potential "spring rally" starting as early as December [3] Hot Sectors - The cultivated diamond sector saw a significant surge, with the index rising over 6% to reach a historical high. Notable stocks like Huifeng Diamond and Sifangda hit their daily limit [4][6] - The marine economy sector also gained momentum, with a notable increase of over 3% in the index, driven by strong performances from stocks like Deshi Co. and Shenkai Machinery [6][8] Industry Developments - Recently, a company announced the successful cultivation of a 156.47-carat diamond, setting a new world record for the largest single crystal cultivated diamond [6] - The global cultivated diamond market is projected to grow from $25.89 billion in 2024 to $74.45 billion by 2032, indicating a significant increase in demand [6] Policy and Economic Outlook - The "2025 World Marine Equipment Conference" held in Fuzhou resulted in 172 projects being signed with a total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential in the marine equipment sector [8] - Analysts expect the Chinese marine equipment industry to improve due to supportive policies, with leading companies likely to see sustained revenue growth [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is relatively high, making it sensitive to negative factors, and the speed of domestic capital inflow may slow down due to year-end profit-taking mentality [4][12][14] - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally" starting as early as December, with the potential for a "bull market rally" also existing [4][30][36] - The report emphasizes that there is only style rotation in the market, not a style switch, and the current adjustments in the technology growth style are seen as healthy rather than a signal for a style change [4][29][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the consumer goods and certain cyclical sectors are currently showing favorable performance expectations and reasonable valuation levels, with industries such as personal care, cosmetics, medical services, and beverages being particularly noteworthy [4][36] - The dividend sector is expected to become a safe haven for funds amid weak market sentiment, with a focus on banks, coal, electricity, and transportation sectors [4][36][42] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to clarify major policies, which may lead to increased market activity and focus on sectors aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "first stabilize, then rise" trend in the second half of the year, driven by internal economic recovery and supportive fiscal policies [1][4][3] - Major brokerages predict that the market will initially show volatility before moving upward, with key factors including global economic improvement and domestic policy implementation [3][4] - The market is anticipated to shift from small-cap stocks to core assets, indicating a trend towards more stable investments [1][10] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown resilience, with a potential bottom already established in early April, and is expected to maintain a steady rhythm before rising [4][3] - Analysts emphasize the importance of focusing on new consumption and technology sectors, particularly AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, as key investment themes for the second half of the year [8][9] - There is a growing consensus that the "transformation bull market" is becoming clearer, with a strategic outlook favoring long-term growth in emerging technologies and cyclical financial sectors [6][7]