人民财讯12月22日电，华泰证券研报称，上周A股探底回升，主因内外流动性环境改善，宽基ETF为代 表的配置型资金大幅净流入，美国11月通胀不及预期后降息预期升温和日央行鸽派加息也创造了有利的 外部环境。华泰证券认为，经过前期调整明年的春季躁动值得期待，但当前仍处于基本面预期扰动和政 策、经济数据空窗期交织阶段，后续行情斜率抬升的潜在催化包括圣诞节后外资仓位回补、1月中旬开 始的年报预告密集披露期及1月可能的降准。配置上，建议继续布局春季躁动，关注AI链、电池、有 色、部分化工品、军工、大众和服务消费等景气改善方向，此外可适当增配主题性品种和受益于季节性 效应的出口链。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is beginning to focus on the potential for a sustained appreciation of the RMB, which could influence asset allocation strategies [1] - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, leading to increased investor interest in these sectors [1] - Key sectors to watch under a strengthening RMB include aviation, gas, and paper industries driven by short-term muscle memory, as well as upstream resources, consumer goods, and services influenced by profit margin changes [1] Group 2 - The 2026 spring market is anticipated to be active, with a focus on non-mainstream sectors such as policy themes and high-dividend stocks, while the mainline structure (AI industry chain, cyclical stocks) may have limited upward potential [2] - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is forming, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, indicating stable incremental capital for the market [3] - The A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, driven by clear mid-term policy and liquidity expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes, with a potential upward trend as investor sentiment improves [4] - The focus for A-share industry allocation includes dividend value, cyclical recovery, and thematic hotspots, particularly in metals, non-bank financials, and AI sectors [4] - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with attention on potential signals for a small rally around the New Year [5][6] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a structural trend change, with significant discrepancies in expectations for consumption, non-bank finance, and technology sectors as 2026 approaches [10][11] - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and structural policy incentives [12] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive structural opportunities, particularly in AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology sectors [12]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条件：合理的估值水 平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化或外部风险缓释 等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币 汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期待。近期股票型 ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。行业配置上，建议关 注：1)受益产业政策支持的成长方向，如国产替代、机器人、航空航天、创新药、储能等;2)受益于"反 内卷"政策的周期方向，如化工、能源金属、资源品等;3)促消费政策的深化或带来消费板块的阶段性催 化机会。 ...

Market Strategy - The report suggests positioning for the "spring rally" market by focusing on technology growth sectors [5][7] - The A-share market has shown a rebound after a period of consolidation, indicating a potential upward trend [9] Economic Insights - From January to November, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China increased by 16.9% year-on-year, with a total of 61,207 enterprises [15][16] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the highest level in 30 years [17][18] Industry Dynamics - Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen production has exceeded 10,000 tons, achieving a fourfold increase compared to the previous year [25][26] - The 2025 China Game Industry Report indicates that the domestic game market's actual sales revenue reached 350.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68% [27][28] - OpenAI is reportedly planning to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of $830 billion to support its growth plans [29][30] - Human-shaped robots have been deployed in CATL's battery production line, increasing daily output by three times compared to manual labor [31][32] - Changying Precision has delivered over 80 million yuan worth of components for humanoid robots from January to August this year [33] Company Tracking - Lizhu Group's NS-041 tablet for treating depression has received approval for clinical trials [35][36] - Longping High-Tech plans to acquire a stake in Longping Oilseed and increase its capital, resulting in a 79.69% ownership [37][38] - Huakai Yibai has initiated its first share buyback, with a total investment of between 15 million and 30 million yuan [39][40]

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a classic "cross-year-spring" market trend is brewing, with significant signals indicating its commencement [3] - Factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, and investors should adapt their asset allocation accordingly, focusing on industries that may benefit from this trend [1] - The market is expected to see a structural shift with a focus on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and sectors related to domestic consumption [3][4] Group 2 - The investment strategy should consider three key clues: dividend value, layout of prosperous industries, and thematic hotspots [4] - The anticipated spring market in 2026 is expected to be driven by a combination of fundamental cyclical improvements and new technological trends [2] - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and investor sentiment [4][6] Group 3 - The focus on AI and advanced manufacturing is expected to dominate the market, with a potential shift towards value and cyclical styles in the first half of 2026 [2] - The market is likely to experience a "value on stage, growth in action" dynamic, particularly as the Lunar New Year approaches [9] - There is a notable expectation for structural opportunities in sectors like AI, new energy, and controlled nuclear fusion, which are aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][10]

2025 年 12 月 21 日 主题活跃成交回升,关注? III -北交所策略周报（20251215-20251221） 本周策略观点: 本周市场行情: 北交所新股: 新三板动态: 目靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 本周新挂牌 2 家，摘牌 3 家，周新增计划融资 0.52 亿元，完成融资 3.14 亿元。 风险提示: 个股业绩李度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 品 相关研究 本周北证 50 指数小幅下跌 0.13%,但成交量环比上升 16%。本周市场活跃度明显上升, ○ 强 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, A-shares were volatile and stabilized, with reduced market volume. Policies on stimulating domestic demand and the upcoming full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port boosted the large - consumption sector. The medical and commercial sectors performed well, while the previously rising TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The bond market first declined and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.48% for the week, the median price up 0.81%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate down 0.36% compared with the previous week [1][2][9] - In the coming week, the small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds, and absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [3][18] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (December 15 - December 19, 2025) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile and stabilized with reduced volume. Policies and the Hainan event boosted the consumption sector, and the medical and commercial sectors performed well due to the flu and AI. The TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The market showed daily fluctuations in indices and sector performances. Most of the Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top - gainers being commerce and retail (6.66%), non - bank finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%), while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), and comprehensive (-1.53%) underperformed [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market first declined and then rose. Despite weak economic data and equity market adjustments at the beginning of the week, bond market sentiment was poor. The central bank's 1000 - billion - yuan 14 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday stabilized capital expectations, and bond market sentiment recovered in the second half of the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week [1][9] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.48% for the week, the median price was up 0.81%, the calculated arithmetic average parity was up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate was down 0.36% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) increased by 4.71%, 0.84%, and 0.85% respectively, reaching the 100%, 98%, and 94% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with commerce and retail (+5.34%), light industry manufacturing (+4.73%), steel (+2.13%), and beauty and care (+1.95%) leading, while non - bank finance (-4.26%), communication (-0.50%), coal (-0.39%), and household appliances (-0.31%) lagged. The top - gainers among individual issues were Jiamei, Huati, Zai 22, Huicheng, and Huayi convertible bonds, and the top - losers were Nenghui, Borui, Furong, Jingda, and Weidao convertible bonds. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3073.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 614.64 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][9][12] Views and Strategies (December 22 - December 26, 2025) - Small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Some low - price convertible bonds and large - cap, high - rating, near - maturity convertible bonds such as Huaan, Guotou, and Nenghua adjusted significantly, reflecting market concerns about the credit of low - quality issues and the conversion ability of near - maturity issues [3][18] - Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. If there are significant adjustments, investors can buy at low prices [3][18] - Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders in sectors such as two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding with historically low valuations [3][18] Valuation Overview - As of December 19, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 43.38%, 39.68%, 28.72%, 20.96%, 12.59%, and 13.84% respectively, at the 90%/82%, 98%/100%, 95%/97%, 93%/94%, 80%/70%, and 98%/98% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of issues with a parity below 70 yuan was -3.99%, at the 2%/5% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.18%, at the 90%/96% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 3.03%, at the 86%/87% percentile values since 2010/2021 [19] Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings. As of December 19, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances in the coming week (December 22 - December 26, 2025), but Puxian Convertible Bond will be listed. Puxian Convertible Bond has an issue size of 243 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and is scheduled to be listed on December 22. The underlying stock is Puxian Software, with a market value of 4.663 billion yuan as of December 19. The company focuses on management software development in the energy industry. In 2024, its revenue was 836 million yuan (+11.6% year - on - year), and the net profit was 121 million yuan (+95.06% year - on - year). From Q1 - Q3 2025, the revenue was 300 million yuan (+2.17% year - on - year), and the net profit was 100,000 yuan (-90.07% year - on - year) [27] - Last week, the exchanges approved the registration of 2 companies (Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology), the listing committees passed the applications of 3 companies (Zhanggao Electric, Doctor Glasses, and Haitian Co., Ltd.), the exchanges accepted the applications of 2 companies (Ruihu Mould and Nanxin Technology), the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposal of 1 company (Zuoli Pharmaceutical), and the board of directors proposed the issuance of 1 company (Tianshan Electronics). As of now, there are 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.9 billion yuan, including 5 issues with a total scale of 5.9 billion yuan that have been approved for registration and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan that have passed the listing committee [28]