Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 1980s, the Thatcher government in the UK and the Reagan government in the US implemented supply - side reforms to address the stagflation situation. These reforms shifted the policy focus from Keynesian demand management to supply - side and free - market economics, which affected industries such as steel and coal, leading to industry restructuring and ultimately promoting industry transformation and profitability improvement [2]. - Through "three removals, one reduction, and one supplementation" measures, including capacity reduction, inventory reduction, de - leveraging, cost reduction, and short - board supplementation, the two countries' economies recovered from stagflation and traditional industries achieved transformation and upgrading [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Reform Background in the 1970s and 1980s - **Stagflation in the UK and the US**: In the 1970s, both countries faced stagflation, with low economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment. From 1973 - 1980, the UK's GDP grew at an average annual rate of only 1.74%, inflation reached 15.2%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 10%. The US had negative GDP growth in 1974, 1975, and 1980, with inflation peaking above 14% and the unemployment rate also exceeding 10% [6]. - **Shift from Keynesian to Supply - Side Economics**: Keynesian demand - side policies failed to control unemployment and instead increased deficits and debts. The supply side faced obstacles such as large - scale losses in state - owned enterprises, frequent strikes due to union monopolies, excessive government regulations, and high marginal tax rates. The Thatcher and Reagan governments launched supply - side reforms in 1979 and 1981 respectively to revitalize the supply side and promote economic recovery [8]. - **Over - capacity and Losses in the Coal and Steel Industries**: In the late 1970s, the UK and the US entered the "de - industrialization" stage. Traditional heavy industries such as steel and machinery manufacturing were severely affected by the Middle East oil crisis and faced cost shocks. They also faced competition from Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" and needed to transform their energy structures due to environmental protection requirements [9]. 3.2 Reform Process: "Three Removals, One Reduction, and One Supplementation" - **Capacity Reduction** - **Coal Industry**: In the UK, the number of coal mines decreased from about 200 in 1980 to 65 in 1990, the number of miners dropped from about 230,000 to 49,000, and coal production decreased from 120 million tons to about 50 million tons. In the US, policies and market factors led to capacity reduction, such as the promotion of natural gas development and environmental protection requirements [17]. - **Steel Industry**: In the UK, the "Davignon Plan" and subsequent measures led to production cuts. The British Steel Corporation (BSC) was reformed, with reduced subsidies, capacity closures, and layoffs, and achieved profitability in 1986. In the US, environmental protection laws, tax reforms, and market competition led to capacity reduction, with 3800 million tons of nominal crude steel capacity withdrawn from 1983 - 1989 and 5280 million tons from 1986 - 2003 [18][19]. - **Inventory Reduction**: In the UK, Thatcher implemented the "right - to - buy" policy, selling about 140,000 public housing units from 1979 to 1987 and earning about £16 billion in revenue [20]. - **De - leveraging**: In the UK, the government reduced the government expenditure - to - GDP ratio from 43% in the early 1980s to 38% in the early 1990s and the deficit rate from 6% to 2%. In the US, the "Gramm - Rudman - Hollings Act" was passed in 1985 to control deficits [22]. - **Cost Reduction** - **UK**: The UK reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 83% in 1979 to 40% in 1988, the basic tax rate from 33% to 25%, and the corporate tax rate from 52% to 35%. - **US**: The US reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 70% in 1981 to 28% in 1986 and the corporate income tax from 46% to 34. It also carried out government institutional reforms and cut welfare spending [23]. - **Short - board Supplementation** - **UK**: The UK supported steel enterprises in mergers, acquisitions, and production layout optimization, promoting specialization and efficiency improvement. In 1988, the BSC was reorganized into specialized subsidiaries. - **US**: The SBIR program invested $2 billion annually in small - business R & D, promoting technological breakthroughs and job creation [24]. 3.3 Policy Effects - **UK Steel Industry**: From 1975 - 1988, UK steel capacity decreased by 11.87 million tons. In 1988, the number of converters decreased by 39% compared to 1975, but production increased by 35.8%. By 1986, the number of employees in the steel industry decreased by 77.4% compared to 1972. The industry achieved world - class levels in the 1990s and turned profitable [26]. - **US Coal Industry**: The concentration of coal enterprises increased, with the output share of large - scale coal enterprises rising. Production efficiency improved, the number of employees decreased, and coal exports increased. The US became a global benchmark for coal industry modernization in the 1990s [28]. - **US Steel Industry**: The industry's transformation laid the foundation for oligopolization, lightening, and high - end development in the 1990s. The CR4 of the steel industry increased from 35% in 1985 to 70% in 2000 [29].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategist team believes that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks due to supply-side shocks, recommending short positions on 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1] Economic Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies - The bank expects core CPI inflation to rise by approximately 0.5 percentage points in the coming months due to tariff impacts, significantly above market consensus [2] - Tariff policies are likened to a combination of VAT increases and negative supply shocks, with tariffs impacting low-income households more than high-income groups, leading to a mild negative effect on overall demand [4] - Stricter immigration policies further exacerbate labor market supply shocks, potentially lowering the non-farm employment growth equilibrium to a range of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs [4] Labor Market Analysis - Despite recent weak employment data, Deutsche Bank believes initial expectations have not materially changed, with the latest non-farm employment growth slightly below the equilibrium range [5] - The bank notes that the unemployment claims data has not triggered the Sam Rule, and wage growth remains resilient, consistent with interpretations of negative supply shocks [5] Inflation Risks and Interest Rates - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates significant upside risks to inflation, with core CPI month-on-month growth expected to be in the range of 0.3% to 0.4% [11] - The current market pricing of the terminal rate at around 3% is considered low compared to a neutral real rate close to 2%, suggesting that the market may be underpricing future inflation [11] Investment Strategy - Deutsche Bank recommends shorting 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.60% and a stop-loss at 4.05%, citing technical and seasonal factors supporting this strategy [12] - For investors looking to hedge spread risks, the bank suggests going long on 10-year SOFR with a target of 4.10% and a stop-loss at 3.55% [12]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices opened high but closed lower, with the market awaiting key inflation reports such as CPI and PPI [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 200.52 points (0.45%) to 43,975.09, the Nasdaq dropped by 64.62 points (0.3%) to 21,385.4, and the S&P 500 decreased by 16 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 [1] - C3.ai saw a significant decline of 25.6%, while Intel rose by 3.51% and Nvidia fell by 0.35% [1] European Market - The German DAX30 index decreased by 118.41 points (0.49%) to 24,074.93, while the UK FTSE 100 index increased by 29.03 points (0.32%) to 9,124.76 [2] - The French CAC40 index fell by 44.48 points (0.57%) to 7,698.52, and the European Stoxx 50 index dropped by 15.99 points (0.30%) to 5,331.75 [2] Asia-Pacific Market - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.85%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 0.1% [3] - The Indonesian Composite Index increased by 0.96% [3] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.35% to 98.519, with the Euro and Pound both declining against the dollar [3] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with light crude futures for September rising by $0.08 to $63.96 per barrel (0.13%) and Brent crude for October increasing by $0.04 to $66.63 per barrel (0.06%) [3] Gold and Metals - Spot gold fell by 1.61% to $3,342.88 per ounce, with a daily low of $3,341.40 [4] - Trump's comments regarding tariffs on gold did not provide further clarity, impacting market sentiment [4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin decreased by 0.65% to $118,484.7, while Ethereum fell by 1.2% to $4,200.54 [5] Macro News - Trump's team is considering candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, including Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, with an announcement expected in the fall [6] - The potential for stagflation poses a new risk to the U.S. dollar, as highlighted by TD Securities [7] Company News - Tesla's stock rose for the fourth consecutive day, driven by increased demand and extended delivery times for its Model Y [8] - Intel's CEO received a positive endorsement from Trump after previously facing calls for resignation, leading to a rise in Intel's stock price [8] - Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) is in talks to acquire a majority stake in Exaion from EDF for approximately $168 million, marking its entry into the AI infrastructure space [9] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment in the U.S. to produce new electric vehicles, creating nearly 4,000 jobs [9]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices opened high but closed lower, with the market awaiting key inflation reports such as CPI and PPI [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 200.52 points (0.45%) to 43,975.09, the Nasdaq dropped by 64.62 points (0.3%) to 21,385.4, and the S&P 500 decreased by 16 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 [1] - C3.ai saw a significant drop of 25.6%, while Intel rose by 3.51% and Nvidia fell by 0.35% [1] European and Asian Markets - The German DAX30 index decreased by 118.41 points (0.49%) to 24,074.93, while the UK FTSE 100 rose by 29.03 points (0.32%) to 9,124.76 [2] - The French CAC40 index fell by 44.48 points (0.57%) to 7,698.52, and the European Stoxx 50 index dropped by 15.99 points (0.30%) to 5,331.75 [2] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.85%, while the KOSPI index fell by 0.1% [2] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.35% to 98.519, with the Euro and Pound both declining against the dollar [3] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with light crude futures for September rising by $0.08 to $63.96 per barrel (0.13%) and Brent crude for October increasing by $0.04 to $66.63 per barrel (0.06%) [3] Metals and Gold - Spot gold prices fell by 1.61% to $3,342.88 per ounce, with a low of $3,341.40 during the day [4] - Trump's comments regarding tariffs on gold have created market fluctuations, but no official order has been released yet [4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin decreased by 0.65% to $118,484.7, while Ethereum fell by 1.2% to $4,200.54 [5] Macro News - Trump's team is considering candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, including Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, with an announcement expected in the fall [6] - The potential for stagflation poses a new risk to the U.S. dollar, as highlighted by TD Securities [7] Company News - Tesla's stock rose for the fourth consecutive day, driven by increased demand and extended delivery times for its Model Y [8] - Intel's CEO received a positive endorsement from Trump after previously facing calls for resignation, leading to a stock price increase of over 2% [8] - Marathon Digital Holdings is in talks to acquire a majority stake in Exaion for approximately $168 million, marking its entry into the AI infrastructure sector [9] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment in the U.S. to produce new electric vehicles, creating nearly 4,000 jobs [9]

在美股持续反弹、标普500指数一度突破6400点之际，华尔街对未来走势的判断出现显著分歧。 Stifel首席股票策略师：警惕估值过高与滞胀风险 曾准确预警年初抛售行情的Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister周一再度发出警告。他表示，目前的高 估值与上世纪90年代末的华尔街狂热相似，"七巨头"科技股领涨，IPO市场活跃，但在滞胀背景下，美 国经济可能在下半年突然放缓，从而引发抛售，标普500或回落至5500点。 Bannister指出，当前AI资本支出热潮以及年初为规避关税而提前进行的采购支出，都不足以长期支撑经 济。他强调，标普500当前市盈率已达24倍，明显高于过去五年的22倍均值，"估值问题不会立刻显现， 但一旦爆发，往往酿成1929年、2000年和2022年的那种崩盘"。 在投资策略上，他建议增配防御型价值板块，如必需消费品和医疗保健，并点名推荐菲利普莫里斯 (PM.US)、奥驰亚(MO.US)、亿滋(MDLZ.US)、通用磨坊(GIS.US)、雅培(ABT.US)、史赛克(SYK.US)、 波士顿科学(BSX.US)和GE Healthcare Technologies(GEHC.U ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数高开低走，最终均收跌，市场等待CPI与PPI等关键通胀报告。周一 早间，纳指最高上涨至21544.21点，创盘中历史新高。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌200.52点，跌幅为0.45%，报43975.09点；纳指跌64.62点，跌幅0.3%，报 21385.4点；标普500指数跌16点，跌幅为0.25%，报6373.45点。C3.ai(AI.US)收跌25.6%，英特尔 (INTC.US)涨3.51%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌0.35%。黄金板块走弱，巴里克矿业(B.US)收跌2.54%，哈莫 尼黄金(HMY.US)跌1.81%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.29%。 【宏观消息】 特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列。据两名美国政府官员透露，美联储两位 副主席鲍曼和杰斐逊以及达拉斯联储主席洛根正在考虑在明年美联储主席一职空缺时出任该职位。负责 遴选的财政部长贝森特说，他将在未来几周内面试更多的候选人。官员说，特朗普预计将在今年秋天做 出最后宣布。知情人士说，其他仍在考虑中的人选包括特朗普经济顾问凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事沃 勒、经济学家马克·萨默林以及前美联储官 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflationary concerns are leading investors to adopt defensive investment strategies ahead of the upcoming CPI report, with a focus on sectors like utilities, communication services, and consumer staples [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, but recent employment data and rising service sector inflation have caused a market downturn, highlighting sensitivity to stagflation risks [1][2] - Analysts emphasize that tariff increases typically result in stagflationary shocks, raising the probability of economic slowdown while exerting upward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey indicates that consumer inflation expectations rose in July, intensifying concerns about a prolonged inflation cycle [4] - Despite rising stagflation worries, some analysts maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the market in the coming weeks, suggesting that tax cuts may stimulate investment and alleviate concerns [4] - Long-term inflation worries persist, with expectations that inflation may accelerate by 2026, and that bond yields and mortgage rates may not decline as anticipated when the Federal Reserve takes action [5]

Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming consumer inflation reports to assess the likelihood of stagflation becoming a reality, as economic growth slows and price pressures rise [1] - Morgan Stanley strategists highlighted the importance of the upcoming CPI report, indicating that recent economic data has amplified its significance [1] - Corpay's chief market strategist suggests focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities, communication services, and consumer staples while avoiding growth sectors like discretionary consumer goods [1] Group 2 - Concerns over a return to 1970s-style stagflation are causing economists and strategists to be cautious, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, removing a key catalyst for the stock market [4] - The S&P 500 index, which has risen 8.6% this year, has recently declined following disappointing employment reports and rising service sector inflation [4] - Bank of America economists warn that lowering interest rates in a stagflation environment without clear evidence of peak inflation is risky [4] Group 3 - Apollo Management's chief economist favors sectors less affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and tariffs, such as telecommunications, healthcare, utilities, and technology, while noting that energy may face negative impacts [5] - Tariff increases are seen as a stagflation shock, raising the likelihood of economic slowdown while exerting upward pressure on prices [5] Group 4 - Annex Wealth Management's chief economist is optimistic about sectors with stable volatility and positive business momentum, including finance, industrials, and technology companies that resemble "business essentials" rather than consumer essentials [6] - Companies like Microsoft and Amazon are favored due to their cloud computing businesses [6] - Despite current uncertainties, there is an expectation that anxiety over stagflation may diminish in the coming weeks, potentially due to tax cuts that could stimulate investment [6]

8月初，一份疲软的就业报告引发市场波动，如今市场刚企稳，就将迎来关键的美国通胀数据。 投资者将密切关注经济中是否出现关税推高物价的迹象——消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将于周二发 布。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）高级投资策略师凯文·戈登（Kevin Gordon）表示，一些人担忧"滞胀趋 势"可能形成，即通胀与失业率同时上升。 戈登在电话采访中称，若通胀高于预期，可能"给市场泼一盆冷水"，导致美国股市从近期反弹中回落。 据道琼斯市场数据，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）上周五收于历史新高，标普500指数 （SPX）则略低于历史峰值。而8月1日，美国7月就业报告意外疲软，加上前几个月新增就业人数大幅 下修，曾导致标普500指数创下4月以来最大单日跌幅。 高盛资产管理公司基本面股票业务联席副首席投资官亚历克西斯·德拉德里埃（Alexis Deladerrière）在 电话采访中表示，强劲的企业盈利、企业宣布的大额投资以及预期中的降息，都应有利于经济和股市。 "我们开始看到股市'动物精神'回归，"他说，并援引并购活动增加、首次公开募股（IPO）交易量上升 为例。他表示，并购加速是企业领袖对前景" ...

供应方面，中辉期货指出，近日铜精矿干扰不断，全球最大铜企Codelco因ElTeniente矿隧道坍塌全面停 产，预计月减产约3万吨（占产量四分之一），国内7月铜冶炼开工率为88.19%，环比上升2.43%，7月 SMM中国电解铜产量环比大增3.94万吨，环比增3.47%，同比上升14.21%。 需求端，华联期货分析称，美国关税政策冲击铜产品出口订单，加工材需求受影响；但新能源汽车、光 伏装机及海外基建项目支撑电力用铜需求。"金九银十"临近，加上国内经济复苏以及政策支持的预期， 后期需求预计继续向好。 展望后市，中金财富期货表示，美国服务业PMI疲软，但物价支付指数飙升，市场担忧"滞胀"风险，部 分资金转向避险资产，压制铜价。国内电解铜产量维持高位，但进口亏损扩大，洋山铜溢价下滑，进口 补充有限，现货升水持续收窄，反映下游采购意愿减弱。沪铜价格在回吐前期关税溢价后，短期进入休 整，窄幅震荡。 库存方面，据广州期货介绍，8月8日，SHFE仓单库存21272吨，增1127吨；SHFE铜周库存81933吨，较 前一周五增9390吨；LME仓单库存155850吨，减150吨。 8月11日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前 ...