Group 1 - The current gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to a strong US dollar, volatility in US Treasury bonds, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.3%, surpassing the 100 mark, which increased the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [1] - The passage of the Trump tax cut bill, which is expected to increase government debt by $3.8 trillion, has created an unusual market reaction despite expectations of negative impacts on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Senate is preparing for a challenging battle over the tax bill, with potential significant adjustments expected, particularly regarding social welfare and energy provisions [3] - The gold market is under pressure from the technical rebound of the dollar and the sell-off of US Treasuries, but long-term support for gold is being built by inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to credit concerns [3] - Investors are advised to focus on potential opportunities created by market corrections rather than being misled by short-term volatility, as the attributes of gold as a currency may be reawakening in the context of global debt expansion [3]

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：我不认同摩根大通CEO戴蒙关于美国滞胀的观点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to increased geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to strong market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Gold prices have shown a short-term upward trend despite previous bearish factors, with the market's basic expectation of stagflation driven by tariff policies remaining unchanged [3] - The long-term upward momentum for gold remains strong, with significant increases in gold imports by China and a notable rise in global gold demand, particularly from ETFs [4] Group 2 - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 tons, marking a 73% month-on-month increase and the highest level in 11 months [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached 1206 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, the highest level for the same period since 2016 [4] - Gold investment demand surged over 100% in Q1 2025, reaching 552 tons, a 170% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery in ETF demand [4]

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

"当收益率上升与经济增长强劲挂钩时，股市尚可消化，"瑞士宝盛股票策略主管马蒂厄·拉赫特指出，"但若由通胀恐惧或财政忧虑驱动利率走高，则往往会 削弱股票估值。" 智通财经APP注意到，在特朗普总统的税改法案以微弱优势通过众议院后，美国长期国债和股指期货重返跌势。 30年期国债收益率逼近5.14%，距离金融危机时期高点仅一步之遥。标普500指数期货下跌0.3%，预示该基准指数可能连续第三日收跌。美元汇率震荡波 动，比特币则继续刷新历史高位。原油价格回落。 美国立法者推进的这项涉及数万亿美元的庞大法案，虽避免了年终增税，却以加重联邦债务负担为代价。 此前穆迪评级下调已将不断膨胀的财政赤字问题推向风口浪尖。这种担忧体现在国债市场上——就在标普500指数反弹至牛市边缘之际，债市情绪再度受 挫。 花旗集团策略师贝娅塔·曼特在接受采访时表示，"债券义警卷土重来，""市场正在担忧债务可持续性。考虑到股市刚刚出现的强劲反弹，这种局面相当不 利。" 周四，10年期美债收益率上升1个基点至4.61%。债市担忧在于，当投资者对美国资产的兴趣减弱时，该税法案将使本已庞大的赤字再增数万亿美元。 策略师马克·克兰菲尔德分析称，法案通过虽不 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.09% [1] - European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.96%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.83%, France's CAC40 down 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.10% [2] - WTI crude oil is down 1.72% at $60.51 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 1.76% at $63.77 per barrel [2] Economic and Policy Updates - The tax reform bill proposed by President Trump has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin (215 to 214 votes), moving to the Senate for further modifications [3] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of potential stagflation risks in the US economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious in its monetary policy decisions [3] - Goldman Sachs executives note that investors are currently more "emotional" compared to during the pandemic or financial crisis, influenced by political biases [4] Company-Specific News - JPMorgan reports a broad recovery in the Chinese economy, with increasing interest from foreign investors seeking diversification [5] - Analog Devices (ADI) raises its Q3 revenue forecast to $2.75 billion, driven by strong demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [6] - Snowflake (SNOW) exceeds Q1 revenue expectations with $1 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, and raises its full-year product revenue guidance [6] - LexinFintech (LX) reports a significant increase in Q1 profits, reaching a three-year high, with revenue of 3.1 billion yuan and a 104.7% year-over-year profit growth [6] - Manchester United (MANU) faces a stock price drop after losing a crucial match, resulting in an estimated loss of $100 million in potential revenue from the Champions League [7] - Google (GOOGL) initiates AI search ad testing, aiming to enhance demand conversion efficiency through AI-integrated advertisements [8]

5月22日，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙再次警告称，由于美国经济面临地缘政治、财政赤字和物价压力等巨大风险， 他不能排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 在特朗普政府频繁发布贸易、监管与税收政策变动下，企业普遍推迟并购和投资计划。摩根大通投资银行部门表示，今 年投资银行费用可能同比下降超过15%，大幅高于市场预期。 摩根大通联席CEO特洛伊·罗巴赫此前指出："不确定性促使客户推迟决策，许多原计划中的大型交易被搁置。" 与此同时，摩根大通本周宣布成立"地缘政治中心"，研究俄乌、中东及全球军备升级问题，意在协助客户评估全球风 险。 戴蒙当天在上海举行的摩根大通全球中国峰会上发表了上述观点。他在接受媒体采访时说："我不认为我们处于最佳状 态，美联储在决定货币政策之前采取的观望态度是正确的。" 今年以来，在美国总统特朗普的关税政策背景下，经济前景充满不确定性，美联储也一直采取观望态度、维持利率不 变。不过，美联储官员们认为，通胀和失业率双双上升的风险正在加大。 戴蒙此前曾表示："我认为通胀上升和出现滞胀的可能性，可能略高于其他人的预期。" 本月早些时候，美国与亚洲国家达成90天关税缓解协议，计划继续谈判以达成新贸易安排。尽 ...

Group 1 - The continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields is causing widespread concern in the market, particularly following a disappointing auction of $16 billion 20-year Treasuries, which has spread pessimism to the U.S. stock and dollar markets [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury is planning to auction $18 billion in 10-year TIPS on Thursday, with additional auctions for various maturities scheduled from May 27 to May 29, indicating significant supply pressure [1][3] - The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5.100%, while the 20-year and 10-year yields have also reached 5.105% and 4.613%, respectively, raising concerns about increased supply due to government fiscal plans [3][4] Group 2 - The highest bid rate for the 20-year Treasury auction reached 5.047%, marking the second instance of a bid rate exceeding 5% and indicating a significant increase in yield compared to the pre-issue rate [4] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction dropped from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, reflecting decreased demand in the market [4] - Moody's reported that U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of GDP and is expected to rise to 134% over the next decade, exacerbating inflation concerns and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [4]

信心低迷 近日，特朗普正加大对众议院共和党的施压，要求他们通过"大而美"开支法案，以延长他在2017年总统第一任期内通过的全 面减税政策。 尽管白宫发言人表示这项法案"不会增加赤字"，但是党派中立的免责联邦预算委员会（CRFB）估算，到2034年财政年度， 该法案将令公共债务增加3.3万亿美元，年度赤字增加至2.9万亿美元，相当于GDP的6.9%（2024年这一比例为6.4%），这将 令美国的公共债务与GDP之比，从2024年的大约100%增加至125%，见下图。 美国赤字扩大，迫使财政部加快发债，而由于美联储需控制通胀，在考虑是否降息以及何时降息之时，美联储在维持缩表 速度，因此公共债务的激增主要由投资者提供资金。 特朗普上台之后所推出的政策屡屡让资本市场大吃一惊，关税政策更大大增加了美国国内的制造业和消费成本，有可能令 本已遏制下来的通胀卷土重来，从而倒逼美联储审慎降息，甚至加息，以降低通胀，这增加了短端市场利率走高的可能 性。 另一方面，特朗普政策的不可预测性和进一步扩大美国财政赤字的风险，令投资者对其长债望而却步，担心美国财政部不 断发债会吸干买盘，这进一步推高债息以吸引资金进场，与之相对应的是，债券 ...

政策不确定性导致企业投资停滞。特朗普政府混乱的关税政策及缩减政府机构的举措，已引发市场对贸 易、通胀、失业及潜在经济衰退的广泛担忧。银行高管透露，众多企业正在暂停扩张计划，包括华尔街 投行主导的利润丰厚的并购交易，这进一步加剧了经济放缓的风险。 此前，对冲基金桥水的创始人达利欧也发出了类似警告。 周二，对冲基金桥水的创始人达利欧在出席活动时，被问及鉴于目前美国的经济状况，美联储是否有降 息的空间。对此，达利欧表示，美联储处境艰难，不应当降息。 据彭博社5月22日报道，摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon在全球中国峰会上接受采访时表示，他无法排除美 国经济陷入滞胀的可能性，认为美国正面临地缘政治、财政赤字和物价压力的重大风险。 这位华尔街顶级银行家直言不讳地说道： 我不同意我们（的经济）正处于最佳状态的说法。 同时，戴蒙强调美联储保持观望态度、暂不降息的策略是正确的。而这一尖锐立场与市场普遍乐观情绪 形成鲜明对比。 在经济基本面看似稳健但政策变动充满不确定性的背景下，美联储官员今年始终维持利率不变。政策制 定者表示，同时应对高通胀与高失业率双重风险的可能性正在上升。这或是滞胀的前兆。 风险提示及免责条款 市场 ...