报告导读： 本周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转鸽，美国资产价格演绎降息 交易，美元走弱， 10 年期美债利率回落，美股反弹。我们认为 9 月美联储可能开启降 息，但是预防式基调和通胀影响下，速度不会太快，预计年内最多降息 2 次。欧央行方 面，通胀已不再是关注焦点， 9 月或按兵不动。 全球大类资产表现： 本周（ 2025.8.18-2025.8.22 ）， 全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。 其中，上证综指上涨 3.5% ，恒生指数上涨 0.3% ，标普 500 上涨 0.3% ，日经 225 指数下跌 1.7% ，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.4% ，优于新兴市场涨幅（ 0% ）。 大宗商品价格涨跌互现， 其中， IPE 布油期货上涨 2.5% ，标普 - 高盛商品指数上涨 2.1% ，伦敦金现上涨 1.1% ，南华商品指数下跌 0.4% 。 债市方 面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 7BP 至 4.26% 。美元指数较前一周下降 0.12% ，报收 97.72 ，日元升值 0.15% ，美元兑日元收 146.94 。 美国经济： 制造业景气度有所回升。 8 月美国 Markit 制 ...

Group 1 - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance and adjustments are trending towards a more accommodative stance, leading to significant market corrections in expectations regarding monetary policy and inflation [1] - The company maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares due to factors such as capital market reforms, stable market liquidity, improved social attitudes and risk preferences, and optimized micro trading structures [1][2] - The outlook for U.S. equities is relatively optimistic, supported by economic resilience, corporate profitability, and marginal improvements in liquidity expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The article suggests that the tactical allocation view for U.S. Treasuries has been upgraded to benchmark due to the accommodative adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, which is expected to benefit Treasury performance [2] - The company has also upgraded its tactical allocation view for government bonds to benchmark, anticipating that the central bank's monetary policy may take action to ensure stable liquidity in the interbank market [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on gold, as the market's expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy are likely to lower the holding costs of gold, thus supporting its price performance [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the current state and future outlook of government bonds, particularly the 10-year and 30-year bonds, as well as the impact of value-added tax (VAT) on these bonds [1][5][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Adjustment** - There are signs of over-adjustment in the short-term bond market, with indicators showing a demand for stabilization. The rapid adjustment, floating losses for funds, and strong short-seller forces are key manifestations of this over-adjustment [1][4]. 2. **Attractiveness of Long-term Bonds** - Long-term government bonds subject to VAT are attractive in the current market environment, with strong demand from institutional investors. These bonds offer advantages in yield and tax treatment compared to other risk-free assets of similar duration [1][5]. 3. **Influencing Factors on Bond Market** - The recent bond market is influenced by the equity market's rise, economic fundamentals, and monetary policy. If the equity market's rise is driven solely by risk appetite, the bond market's interest rates will gradually become less responsive after adjustments [1][6]. 4. **Interest Rate Predictions** - Most interest rate prediction models are pessimistic about the bond market's future, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may break 1.8%, with a high point projected at 1.85% [1][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Short-term investment strategies should focus on a rebound approach, avoiding chasing yields during interest rate declines. A hold strategy is recommended for bond portfolios, with caution against increasing duration [1][9][10]. 6. **Bond Curve Dynamics** - The current curve shape is slightly bear steep, with long-term rates relatively weaker than short-term rates. In a bear steep environment, a bullet strategy is suggested, while a barbell strategy is recommended for dynamic investment to quickly adjust duration [1][11]. 7. **Specific Bond Recommendations** - The newly issued 10-year and 30-year bonds are highlighted as having the potential to become mainstay bonds. The 10-year bond (250,215) is noted for its value, while the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) is expected to have a significant issuance scale [2][12][15]. 8. **Impact of VAT on Bond Trading** - The introduction of VAT on government bonds is not expected to significantly alter market behavior. Investors will still consider after-tax returns when trading bonds, but the VAT will not deter trading activity [14]. 9. **Long-term vs. Short-term Bond Strategies** - Investors are advised to consider the differences in volatility and yield spreads when choosing between 10-year and 30-year bonds. The 30-year bonds may present greater opportunities in a rebound market, while the 10-year bonds are more suited for defensive strategies [20][21]. Other Important Considerations - The bond market's future trajectory will be influenced by government debt issuance and central bank policies, particularly in the fourth quarter, which may lead to fluctuations in liquidity [8][9]. - The potential for the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) to become a mainstay bond is emphasized, with its issuance scale expected to be significant compared to existing bonds [15][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the bond market, along with strategic recommendations for investors.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, Trump threatened economic sanctions on Russia and Ukraine if they don't talk, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when prices decline [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of spot Shanghai Gold T+D was 773.40, down 1.72 from the previous day and 4.26 from the previous week; the closing price of the futures active contract was 9192.00, up 30.00 from the previous day and down 66.00 from the previous week. The closing price of London Gold Spot was 3334.25 dollars/ounce, down 4.05 from the previous day and 9.60 from the previous week. The closing price of London Silver Spot was 38.01 dollars/ounce, up 0.44 from the previous day and down 0.31 from the previous week [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai Gold T+D on August 22, 2025, was 21306.00, down 918.00 from the previous day and up 2276.00 from the previous week. The open interest of the futures active contract was 303690.00, down 3408.00 from the previous day and 47052.00 from the previous week [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (spot - futures) of gold on August 22, 2025, was - 1.77, up 1.69 from the previous day and 1.09 from the previous week. The spread (near - far) of gold was - 16.00, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.00 from the previous week [1] Important Information - **Fed and Interest Rates**: Wall Street Journal reporter Mick Timiraos said that Powell signaled a September rate cut while suggesting the market should not expect aggressive easing. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in mainly short - term Treasury bonds in Q3 to replenish the cash account, and the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. US inflation data in July increased, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] - **International Politics**: Trump said that if the leaders of Russia and Ukraine don't hold a direct meeting within two weeks, he will make "very important decisions", possibly "large - scale sanctions or tariffs" [1] - **Global Central Banks**: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1] Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to lay out long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: London Gold has support around 3200 - 3300 and resistance around 3400 - 3500; Shanghai Gold has support around 760 - 770 and resistance around 800 - 810; London Silver has support around 34 - 36 and resistance around 37 - 40; Shanghai Silver has support around 8500 - 8700 and resistance around 9100 - 9500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is likely to maintain its interest rate unchanged for the second consecutive time during the upcoming policy meeting, with a majority of economists predicting no adjustment [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal among 27 economists shows that 20 expect no change in interest rates, while 7 anticipate a rate cut [1] - Goldman Sachs economists, led by Goohoon Kwon, suggest that a moderate stance will allow the Bank of Korea to monitor household debt trends and assess the effects of ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea in October [1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Expectations - Most economists expect the Bank of Korea to slightly raise its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth data from the second quarter [1]

Core Insights - The report from ANZ Bank highlights the potential rapid weakening of the U.S. labor market in the coming month, as pointed out by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which may necessitate a return to monetary easing [1] - Powell's assumption indicates that tariffs will lead to a one-time price increase, but the full effects may take time to manifest [1] - Early data suggests that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices appears to be temporary, supporting a gradual easing stance alongside stable inflation expectations [1] - ANZ Bank states that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole paves the way for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1]

Policy Background and Core Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations showed significant volatility, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 84% to 68% due to multiple factors, including diverging views among policymakers, mixed economic data, and external uncertainties [1][3]. Diverging Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Dovish voices, such as Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, support three rate cuts within the year and urge for a September cut, arguing that tariff-driven inflation will not persist [3]. - Hawkish perspectives, represented by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, suggest only one more rate cut this year, emphasizing the need for more data [3]. Mixed Economic Data Signals - Inflation data showed mild results, with July CPI and core PCE data indicating resilience in service inflation and housing costs, raising concerns among officials about potential inflation rebounds [9]. - The labor market remains strong with low unemployment, but early indicators like reduced temporary hiring and shortened work hours suggest possible weakening [9]. - Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in July, indicating consumer resilience, although consumer confidence has declined due to inflation and unemployment concerns [9]. - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-over-month in July, reflecting limited supply-side pressures but revealing weakening demand and trade policy impacts [9]. Market Predictions and Probability Changes - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 84% to 68%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 32% [9]. - For October, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 48.8%, and for a 50 basis point cut, it is 51.5% [9]. - The decline in probabilities is attributed to hawkish statements from officials and concerns over resilient inflation, alongside uncertainties in the labor market and declining consumer confidence [9]. External Environment and Policy Challenges - The global economic environment is characterized by weak growth in Europe, geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine situation), and fluctuations in energy prices affecting the U.S. economic outlook [12]. - A strong dollar is suppressing export competitiveness but helps to mitigate import inflation [12]. - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing a "higher for longer" interest rate policy with the goal of achieving a soft landing for the economy, with internal disagreements on the timing of rate cuts [12]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The drop in September rate cut probability to 68% reflects mixed economic signals and diverging views among policymakers, with the market still anticipating rate cuts but requiring further data validation regarding timing and magnitude [15]. - Key observation points include upcoming CPI and PCE data for August, which could influence rate cut probabilities if inflation continues to ease [15]. - Labor market data will be critical; a significant rise in unemployment or a slowdown in hiring plans could prompt rate cuts [16]. - Statements from Powell and other policy signals during the global central bank meeting in August will provide important insights [16].

Group 1 - The balance of risks has shifted, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is currently seen as moderately restrictive [1] - The new policy framework adopted by the Federal Reserve includes a flexible inflation targeting approach and removes the inflation "compensation" strategy [1] Group 2 - The labor market is described as being in an "unusual balance," with labor supply softening and aligning with demand [1] - The stability of the employment market allows for cautious advancement of monetary policy [1] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be temporary, with a reasonable assumption that their effects will accumulate over the coming months [1] Group 3 - The influence of tariffs on consumer prices is evident, and stable inflation expectations should not be taken for granted [1] - Longer-term inflation expectations appear to be well-anchored [1]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Powell opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may require an adjustment in policy stance [1] - Labor market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels, with significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting rising downside risks to employment [1] - Inflation outlook: Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while long-term inflation expectations appear stable, with a focus on preventing one-time price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [1] Group 2 - Tariff impact: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are becoming clear, with expectations that this impact will continue to accumulate in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude remain highly uncertain [1] - Framework adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing references to pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term" and basing employment decisions on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels" [1]

Economic Situation and Short-term Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy adjustments, with the labor market close to full employment and inflation down from pandemic peaks, although still slightly above target [1][2] - The current economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tightened immigration policies slowing labor growth, and potential long-term impacts from tax, spending, and regulatory changes [2][3] - The labor market has seen a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added monthly over the past three months, compared to an expected average of 168,000 for 2024 [3] Inflation and GDP Growth - GDP growth has notably slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, about half of the projected 2.5% growth for 2024, primarily due to a decrease in consumer spending [4] - Inflation pressures are evident, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary trends [4][5] - Tariffs are contributing to rising prices, with the potential for these price increases to lead to more sustained inflation dynamics, although current labor market conditions may mitigate this risk [5] Monetary Policy Framework Evolution - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is evolving to adapt to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [7][11] - The revised consensus statement reflects lessons learned from recent economic experiences, including the need for clear communication regarding monetary policy strategies in varying economic environments [11][12] - Key adjustments in the framework include a shift away from emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economy and a return to a flexible inflation targeting approach [12][13] Long-term Economic Considerations - The revised framework acknowledges that the long-term neutral interest rate may be higher than in previous decades, influenced by factors such as productivity, demographics, and fiscal policy [11][15] - The commitment to a 2% long-term inflation target remains central to maintaining long-term inflation expectations, which is crucial for achieving the dual mandate [15][16] - The Federal Reserve plans to continue conducting public assessments of its framework approximately every five years to ensure alignment with evolving economic conditions [15][16]