证券研究报告 宽观 关税"脉冲"引起贸易量波动 |关税 影响高频跟踪(6月12日) 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 概览:5月以来关税"脉冲"轨迹初步显现,贸易量上,高频数据显示5月 美国进口偏弱,预计6月有所修复,但或难回到一季度的较高水平;通胀上, 微观数据显示 5月底以来价格小幅上行,关税的价格压力仍在传导;企业信 心上,5月有所修复但仍处低位,后续修复速率或相对缓慢。总体来看,虽 然"美丽大法案"或于7月通过,带来新一轮财政扩张,美国经济大概率避 免陷入衰退,但7月9日后的贸易走势值得观察。 贸易高频跟踪显示,5月美国进口偏弱,预计6月将有所回升。5月中美关 税降级以来,运价明显回升,显示贸易需求有所升温。但集装箱数据显示, 5月美国自全球进口整体偏弱,自中国进口显著回落。但自越南等国家进口 维持较高水平,背后是关税以及贸易分流的影响(图表 3-6)。6月以来数据 显示. 6月中下旬美国进口或有所回升:6月以来,中国发往美国的集装箱 数量低位回升,考虑到中国到美国海运需要 2-4周,对应6月中下旬美国自 中国进口的回升:6月中下旬洛杉矶港到港量同比增速预测也明显回升,佐 证上述判断 ...

方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月13日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250613 重点推荐 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关键——海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据 ➢ 2.制冷剂行业延续高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3.己二酸短期基本面有望向好，关注一体化龙头企业——基础化工行业简评 ➢ 1.央行、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支持福建探索海峡两岸融合发展新路 建设两岸融 合发展示范区的若干措施》 ➢ 2.国务院总理李强会见欧洲中央银行行长拉加德 ➢ 3.特朗普准备签署美英贸易协议的关键部分 ➢ 4.美国公布5月PPI数据 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW ...

展望后市，分析师认为如果冲突升级，黄金将突破前期高位，再创历史新高，油价将突破120美元。 以色列空袭伊朗，中东地缘政治紧张局势升级，令金价、油价齐飞。金价攀升至本周新高，并逼近4月的前期高 位。国际布伦特油价和美国WTI油价也均飙升超过10%。 投资者对美联储9月降息的预期增强，再叠加中东地区可能爆发的冲突风险，正在共同推动黄金作为避险资产的需 求激增，一些分析师预期，金价或将突破4月高点，再创新高。油价在出现冲突再升级的最坏情况下，也有可能突 破120美元/桶。 同样飙升的还有油价。今日亚太交易时段，WTI原油飙升10.21%，报74.99美元/桶；布伦特原油涨10.286%，至 76.48美元/桶。 研究公司MST Marquee的能源研究主管卡瓦尼克（Saul Kavonic）分析称："去年，原油市场在很大程度上摆脱了 地缘政治风险。而近期这些事态发展，再度给市场敲响了警钟，让投资者意识到，这些风险比许多人预期的更切 实、更迫在眉睫。该袭击也可能也会给美伊谈判施压。" Lipow Oil Associates的总裁力普（Andy Lipow）表示，石油市场现在担心伊朗将通过攻击以色列或美国目标进行 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating monetary policies, with key factors influencing gold prices identified to assist investors in navigating the complex economic landscape [1]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the holding cost of gold, attracting global buyers [3]. - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in this non-yielding asset [3]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as wars and banking crises, drive safe-haven investments into gold [3]. - Economic recession or increased uncertainty prompts investors to prefer gold as a safe asset [3]. - Rising inflation expectations position gold as an effective hedge against inflation, drawing in more funds [3]. - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to unexpected events like pandemics or natural disasters [3]. - Global monetary policy easing, including rate cuts or quantitative easing, releases liquidity that partially flows into the gold market [3]. - The onset of financial crises enhances the appeal of gold's value preservation function [3]. - Strong demand during market consumption peaks from jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors boosts gold prices [3]. - Weak US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, raise concerns about the economy, thereby increasing gold demand [3]. Factors Leading to Gold Price Declines - The appreciation of the US dollar attracts capital inflows, diminishing gold's appeal [4]. - Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase the returns on risk-free assets, leading to decreased demand for gold [4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven buying pressure on gold [5]. - Strong economic recovery raises risk appetite, diverting funds to higher-yielding assets like stocks and real estate [5]. - Declining inflation expectations weaken the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [5]. - Reduced safe-haven sentiment due to diminished impacts from pandemics or disasters leads to a rational market return [5]. - Tightening monetary policies, including rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, withdraw liquidity and pressure gold prices [5]. - Resolution of financial crises leads to capital exiting gold investments [5]. - An oversupply of gold, such as central bank sales or increased mining output, can suppress prices [5]. - Positive US economic indicators strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Gold Market Outlook for 2025 - The international situation remains volatile, with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike pace while inflation data stays concerning, and pressures in the European and American banking systems are not fully resolved, indicating that gold still holds certain investment value [7]. Key Indicators for Gold Investors - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes, including interest rate decisions and FOMC meeting minutes [8]. - Keeping an eye on US employment and inflation data, such as NFP, CPI, and PCE [8]. - Observing significant global geopolitical events, including wars, terrorist attacks, and sudden financial incidents [8]. - Tracking central bank gold purchasing behaviors, particularly from emerging market central banks [8]. - Gold is viewed as a "hard currency" that reflects deep dynamics within the global economic and financial system, with investment strategies suggested for both conservative and aggressive investors [8].

日本央行预计通胀将强于预期 金十数据6月13日讯，据知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为，物价上涨幅度略高于今年早些时候的预 期，这一因素可能为讨论是否在全球贸易紧张局势缓解的情况下加息打开了大门。知情人士说，官员们 预计，在下周为期两天的会议结束时，日本央行的基准利率将维持在0.5%不变，因为他们需要监测全 球关税谈判的进展及其对经济的影响。但知情人士表示，如果事实证明关税措施对基本价格趋势的破坏 性不太大，官员们将认为这支持讨论是否加息。这些人的言论表明，如果全球贸易形势更加明朗，日本 央行可能会在今年年底前加息。 ...

市场消息：日本央行预计通胀将高于预期，但下周将维持利率不变。日本央行在贸易局势明朗后，有望 考虑加息。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美国降息预期升温，美元弱势，黄 金强势 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：周三美国 5 月 CPI 低于市场预期，周四美国核心 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell slightly below expectations, with year-on-year CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.4%, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%, and core CPI also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2% [1] - Factors contributing to the CPI's lower-than-expected performance include a decline in energy prices, a continued drop in automobile prices, and a slowdown in rent and super core services price increases [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, and the probability of a first cut in September rising from 50.9% to 61.3% [2] - The effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 7.07%, significantly lower than the estimated 13-20% by overseas institutions, potentially due to tax avoidance measures [3] - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the first sale price, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain, with the potential for upward inflation risks unless tariffs are continuously suspended or canceled [5] - Consumer inflation expectations in the US have surged, with one-year and five-year expectations at near 45-year and 25-year highs, respectively [5] - Despite a significant number of brands and retail executives anticipating negative consumer reactions to price increases, a majority still plan to raise prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].