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预期现实博弈,钢矿高位震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness, but the low inventory limits industrial contradictions. With strong raw materials providing cost support and positive policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, focusing on policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil remained at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil have both weakened, with a slight inventory build-up. However, positive policy expectations and strong raw materials lead to a high-level oscillating trend, and overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 311.72 billion yuan, 2.3905 trillion yuan, and 3.90314 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the growth rate was 5.3%. The investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 48.16 billion yuan, 882.94 billion yuan, and 1.55543 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.5%, 10.2%, and -1.1% [7]. - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,170 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,287 yuan respectively, with changes of -10 yuan, -10 yuan, and -4 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,200 yuan, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with changes of -20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 1 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 750 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 707 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,114 yuan, a decrease of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,439,493, an increase of 274,884, and the open interest was 2,153,852, an increase of 31,511 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,259 yuan, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 496,158, an increase of 41,499, and the open interest was 1,566,776, a decrease of 13,515 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 767.0 yuan, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 325,980, an increase of 86,736, and the open interest was 668,688, an increase of 3,867 [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at 45 ports, as well as charts on steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability [13][18][27]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand remains weak, and the steel price is still under pressure in the off-season. However, low inventory, strong raw materials, and positive policy expectations will lead to an oscillating and stabilizing trend, focusing on policy implementation [36]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has declined, but the supply pressure remains high. Demand resilience has weakened, but downstream cold-rolled production provides support. With positive policy expectations and strong raw materials, it will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, guarding against overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have both weakened. Ore demand is declining, and the supply is also contracting. Optimistic sentiment supports the high price, but the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [38].
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250715
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - In the short - term, PTA drivers are expected to be weak, and prices will follow cost fluctuations. In July, there are few PTA device overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production. Meanwhile, it's the off - season for terminal demand, polyester sales are continuously weak, inventory pressure is accumulating, and there are also news of production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The factory inventory decreased slightly, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. MEG - In the short - term, the price of ethylene glycol will mainly undergo wide - range adjustments. The poor restart of some devices in Saudi Arabia has boosted market sentiment. In the long - term, the transferable spot in the ethylene glycol market will continue to be loose, with about 4 ships of South China goods shipped to East China this month. The inventory accumulation expectation for August - September is relatively clear, with an overall range of about 18 - 200,000 tons. As the inventory pressure of polyester products increases, the intention of subsequent factories to participate in raw material procurement will also weaken [7]. - On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately strengthened, and the market trading was average. Affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up in the afternoon. The basis ran relatively stably, and the center of the outer market of ethylene glycol rose firmly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - PTA: Futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The price negotiation range of this week's goods was around 4705 - 4765, and the mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 8 [6]. - MEG: The price center moderately strengthened. In the morning, it weakened slightly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 4370 yuan/ton. Then, affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up. In the afternoon, it was sorted at a high level, and the basis ran relatively stably [7]. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a neutral basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Weak drivers in the short - term, prices follow cost fluctuations [5]. MEG - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a slightly positive basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [7][8]. - Expectation: Short - term wide - range adjustments, long - term inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Today's Focus There is no information provided regarding today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, PTA production capacity has increased, and production, supply, and demand have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, in July 2025, the production capacity was 91.72 million tons, the production was 6.39 million tons, and the total demand was 6.27 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 115,000 tons [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the overall operating rate and production of ethylene glycol have changed, and supply and demand have also fluctuated. For example, in July 2025, the total supply was 2.35 million tons, and the total consumption was 2.33 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 20,000 tons [13].
对二甲苯:单边震荡市,PTA,关注长丝工厂减产情况,MEG,低库存,单边震荡市,月差逢低正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:51
Market Overview - PX price rebounded today with Asian spot transactions at various prices, and it's supported by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors. The current estimated price is 852 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars from last Friday [3]. - PTA futures closed up in a volatile market, with a weak spot market negotiation atmosphere and stable basis. The mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 8 [5]. - A 900,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore plans to shut down for maintenance in August, and several Saudi MEG plants have reduced loads or shut down [5][6]. - Textile and clothing exports from January - June 2025 showed different trends in RMB and USD terms. In June, exports showed mixed growth and decline compared to the same and previous periods [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, while in Fujian, sales were smooth due to rising futures prices [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral stance [7]. Views and Suggestions PX - The market focuses on the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. Supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Pay attention to far - month PXN compression positions. The Asian PX operating rate is 73.6% (- 0.5%), and PTA load has increased. PX supply - demand is tight in July, and the monthly spread is expected to be strong. Aromatics are over - valued relative to oil products, and it's advisable to focus on far - month PXN compression [7]. PTA - The market focuses on whether the commissioning of Sanfangxiang will be delayed and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Go long on PX and short on PTA, and long on PR and short on PTA in the 01 contract. PTA supply increases while demand decreases, polyester operating rate is declining, and there is pressure on PTA inventory accumulation. However, the downside of the single - side price is limited due to low raw material inventory in polyester factories, and processing fees are under pressure [8][9]. MEG - The shutdown of Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants may affect future imports. It's a bullish volatile market on the single side, and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low, and coal prices have rebounded. Pay attention to the restart of Yulin Energy Chemical. The monthly spread of ethylene glycol should be positively spread when the price is low [10]. Price and Data Futures | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Monthly Spread (Yesterday) | Monthly Spread (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6778 | 6694 | 84 | 94 | 20 | | PTA Main | 4740 | 40 | 0.85% | 40 | 2 | | MEG Main | 4357 | 52 | 1.21% | - 12 | 14 | | PF Main | 6436 | 48 | 0.75% | 146 | 26 | | SC Main | 513 | - 0.9 | - 0.18% | 14.5 | 4.8 | [2] Spot | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | 850.33 | 836.67 | 13.66 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4735 | 4715 | 20 | | MEG Spot | 4405 | 4383 | 22 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597 | 584.25 | 12.75 | | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | 71.45 | 72.63 | - 1.18 | [2] Spot Processing Fees | Spot Processing Fees | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 252.42 | 256.67 | - 4.25 | | PTA Processing Fee | 200.03 | 158.43 | 41.6 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 304.31 | 301.29 | 3.02 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | - 410.69 | - 453.71 | 43.02 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 7.42 | - 7.42 | 0 | [2]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围主导,能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 12:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - **Methanol**: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].
原周报(LG):原木09合约偏空看待-20250714
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 09:44
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报(LG)】 原木09合约偏空看待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-07-14 杨璐琳 从业资格证号:F3042528 投资咨询证号:Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木:原木期货价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 截止到6月29日,6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条,其中有30条去往中国大陆,8条去往中国台湾、韩国减载。6月出发的船只中,预计 6月到港的约为10条,7月到港的有28条。预计6月到货151万方。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 6月30日-7月6日,中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.69万方,较上周增加1.83%;其中,山东港口针叶原木日均出库量为3.9万方,较上周 增加9.86%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.15万方,较上周减少3.15%。 | | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 截至7月4日,国内针 ...
甲醇日评:港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限-20250714
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 07:13
| 甲醇日评20250714: 港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/10 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2443.00 | 2463.00 | -20.00 | -0.81% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2371.00 | 2380.00 | -9.00 | -0.38% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2398.00 | -28.00 | -1.17% | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2367.50 | 2390.00 | -22.50 | -0.94% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2255.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2412.50 | -22.50 | -0.93% | | 申醇观货价格 及其差 陕西 (日度均价) | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 204 ...
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:35
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,根据隆众,2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨,环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.9166%,环比增加0.779个百分点,全国 样本企业出货26.12万吨,环比增加10.91%,样本企业产量为56.6万吨,环比增加2.35%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为58.2万吨,环比减少2.51%,本周炼厂有所增产,提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为32.7%,环比增加0.03个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%,环比持平,低于历史平均水平;改性沥 ...
国泰君安期货所PXPTAMEG基本面数据
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 05:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, with the Asian PX operating rate at 73.6% (-0.5%). The supply and demand of PX in July are still tight, and the monthly spread is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [5]. - PTA: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Go long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract, and go long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA increases while the demand decreases, and the polyester operating rate drops. Although there is supply pressure, the downside space of the unilateral price is limited due to the low raw material inventory of polyester factories, and the processing fee is still under downward pressure [6]. - MEG: Unilateral oscillatory market, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. The supply of MEG increases while the demand decreases, but the inventory is at a low level, and the coal price rebounds, so the MEG price rebounds. In the case of limited import increase, go for positive spread arbitrage for ethylene glycol monthly spreads when the price is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 210,000 - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory stopped due to a reforming unit failure, initially expected to last about 20 days. Another 210,000 - ton/year PX production line of Idemitsu in Japan stopped on July 11 due to technical problems, and the exact time for repair and restart is unknown until next week. The Asian PX price further declined during the closing assessment, with the trading price of September short - haul cargo between Glencore and Hengli at $834/ton [3][5]. Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6694 | 4700 | 4305 | 6388 | 513.9 | | Change | 6782 | -42 | -20 | -52 | -8.6 | | Change Rate | -88 | -0.89% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.65% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 74 | 38 | -26 | 120 | 9.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 64 | 12 | -33 | 102 | 10.2 | | Change | 10 | 26 | 7 | 18 | -0.5 | [2] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 836.67 | 4715 | 4383 | 584.25 | 72.63 | | Previous Day's Price | 851.67 | 4735 | 4386 | 591 | 70.58 | | Change | -15 | -20 | -3 | -6.75 | 2.04 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 256.67 | 158.43 | 304.31 | -410.69 | -7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 251.42 | 165.64 | 301.29 | -453.71 | -7.42 | | Change | 5.25 | -7.21 | 3.02 | 43.02 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 03:42
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The upstream supply of soda ash is at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1217 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 17 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.14%, the low - end price in Shahe increased by 0.50%, and the main basis decreased by 54.05% compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 113.50 yuan/ton. The production profit was at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 100 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, and other indicators of soda ash over the years, as well as the corresponding supply - demand differences and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250714
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 03:28
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 14 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪主导,矿价高位运行 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 乐观情绪未退,矿价高位运行,但铁矿石供需格局并无改善,淡季钢厂生产趋弱,矿石终端消耗 延续下行,相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况尚可,减量空间有限。同时,港口到货低位回升,而矿商发运 大幅减量,海外矿石供应明显收缩,相应的内矿生产同样趋弱,供应短期收缩。目前来看,政策利好 预期 ...