2025 年 12 月 18 日 沥青：低位反弹，关注地缘 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 吨 山东 江苏 广东 辽宁 BU厂库仓单 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 3,012 | 4.08% | 2,974 | -1.26% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 3,014 | 3.36% | 2,981 | -1.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 504,034 | 131,674 | 235,465 | (1,592) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 171,022 | 61,203 | 117,175 | 1, ...

| 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | 徐艺丹 | | Z0020017 | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 782.5 | 772.6 | 9.9 | 1.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 830.4 | 824.9 | 5.5 | 0.7% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 836.3 | 830.9 | 5.4 | 0.6% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 829.5 | 824.1 | 5.4 | 0.7% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | -1.0 | -4.4 | 3.4 | 76.4% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 46.9 | 47.9 | -1.0 | -2.1% | 工/肥 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 52.8 | 53.9 | -1.1 | -2.1% | | | 01合约基差: 金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 行情驱动逻辑 煤炭行业利好发酵提振市场情绪，钢材期价夜盘走强，但螺纹钢供需格局表现偏弱，供应持续 下降并降至低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求季节性走弱，高频指标延 续低位偏弱运行，且下游行业也未好转，弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，钢材期 价低位回 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 LLDPE：供应弹性有限，估值继续承压 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6479 | -0.98% | 462885 | 29984 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -49 | | -93 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -35 | | -25 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6430 | | 6450 | | | | 华东 | 6570 | | 6600 | | | | 华南 | 6480 | | 6480 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货低开窄幅震荡，市场交投气氛延续疲软，中油华东（山东库）、中油华南、蒲城清洁能源等出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The prices were pushed up during the night session of the black series, and the price trend is strong [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short sentiments, with wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs: Low - level fluctuations [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase. The position increased by 9,427 hands to 488,996 hands. Imported ore and most domestic ore prices rose slightly. The basis against Super Special decreased by 5.9 yuan/ton, and the 12605 - 12609 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, and residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; HC2605 was 3245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase. The trading volume and position of both decreased. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of RB2605 decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and that of HC2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: In early December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily crude steel output increased by 2.8%, daily pig iron output decreased by 3.4%, and daily steel output decreased by 12.1%. Steel inventory increased by 3.3% compared with the previous ten - day period. Some steel products are subject to export license management. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all decreased in the week of December 11. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5%. In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 were 5546 and 5502 yuan/ton respectively, and those of silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 were 5758 and 5796 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were 5200 and 5540 yuan/ton respectively. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed to varying degrees [11]. - **News**: On December 17, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some silicon - iron plants had production adjustments. UMK and NMT raised the manganese ore quotation for January 2026. Some steel mills had procurement price adjustments for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2601 was 970.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton with a 0.3% decrease; J2601 was 1530.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton with a 1.1% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads of different contracts changed [15]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts changed to varying degrees. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [20]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国就业数据喜忧参半，市场降息预期没有变化，短期市场流动性风险偏好较好， | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 短期白银交易交割逻辑，ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利， | | ★★ | | | | | | 非农数据疲软，日央行加息在即，市场流动性或承压，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 谈判焦灼，LME 注销仓单占比维持 40%高位，建议铜多单逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | ★ | | 在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 锌库存大增超 3 万吨，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 双弱，国内淡季去库。短期锌高位回落，建议企业卖出套保积极逢 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铂：向上势头偏强 钯：连续破位冲击前高 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | | 485. 75 | | 0. 69% | | | | 金交所铂金 | | 471. 32 | | 0. 96% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | | 1874. 30 | | 3.22% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | | 1834. 60 | | 2.76% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | | 423. 85 | | 3. 99% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | | 386. 00 | | 4. 89% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | | 1,662.50 | | | | | | | | | | 2. 50% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | | 1.606.00 | | 2. 13% | | | | | ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 沥青：委油遭扣后，油轮空船走 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,894 | -2.33% | 2,869 | -0.86% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,916 | -2.21% | 2,886 | -1.03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 372,360 | 161,403 | 237,057 | 29,936 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 109,819 | 42,511 | 115,229 | 17,081 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54100 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹供需格局弱稳运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应降至低位，给予钢价支撑，但减产持续性待 跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现不佳，高频指标低位弱势运行，且下游行业未见好转，后续仍将 季节性走弱，易拖累钢价。目前来看，低供应格局给予钢价支撑，但需求表现同样疲弱，基本面并 无好转，淡季钢 ...