Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has sparked strong opposition from trade partners [1][3] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise domestic prices, particularly affecting the automotive industry, where steel constitutes about 60% of a vehicle's weight, potentially increasing car prices by $2,000 to $4,000 [1][3] - The increase in tariffs may also impact prices of consumer goods such as beverages in aluminum cans and major home appliances like refrigerators and washing machines [1] Group 2 - The new tariff policy has already shown negative effects on global trade, with Germany's mechanical engineering sector reporting a 6% year-on-year decline in new orders due to U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty [3] - The chief economist of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association has indicated that the new tariffs have severely impacted global markets, leading to a decline in corporate investment sentiment [3] - The global trade landscape is facing significant challenges as the implications of the U.S. steel and aluminum tariff increase unfold, raising concerns about how countries will respond [3]

供需双压致油价走低：美国汽油库存暴增520万桶，欧佩克计划持续增产，沙特降价争夺市场份额，叠 加贸易摩擦抑制需求预期，国际油价承压下行。邓正红软实力表示，美国数据显示汽油和柴油库存出人 意料地大幅增加，欧佩克联盟增产导致供需平衡趋松，且关税紧张局势引发的全球经济前景担忧持续发 酵，供需两端挤压石油软实力，周三（6月4日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克 萨斯轻质原油7月期货结算价每桶跌0.56美元至62.85美元，跌幅0.88%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月 期货结算价每桶跌0.77美元至64.86美元，跌幅1.17%。美国能源信息署（EIA）称，上周美国汽油库存 增加520 万桶，馏分油库存增加 420 万桶。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克联盟在未来几个月继续加 速石油增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。 宏观风险压制软实力扩张空间，贸易摩擦抑制需求预期。尽管美中计划元首通话，但特朗普政府持续指 责中国"违反协议"，叠加OECD下调全球增长预期，关税紧张局势持续发酵。贸易不确定性直接抑制原 油需求前景，加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧。地缘政治博弈的复杂影响。伊朗宣布实现完整核燃料循 环，哈 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Core Viewpoint - SIRUI Optical's IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange has been terminated due to unanswered inquiries regarding the sustainability of its performance growth, product technology, competitive advantages, and market space [1] Company Overview - SIRUI Optical, founded in 2001, is based in Wuguishan Town, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, and specializes in photography and videography equipment [2] - The company's product range includes camera support rigs, broadcasting equipment, optical lenses, photography bags, and dehumidifying cabinets, with the "SIRUI" brand widely used among photography enthusiasts and professionals [2] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, SIRUI Optical's revenue increased from 189 million yuan to 262 million yuan, while net profit rose from 17.1 million yuan to 31.3 million yuan [4] - In 2023, the company reported total assets of approximately 418 million yuan, with total equity of about 166.6 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.13% [3] - Despite a 30.08% increase in revenue in 2024, the company experienced a 35.33% decline in net profit, indicating a "growth without profit" scenario [4] Market and Sales - SIRUI Optical's products are primarily exported to the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, with overseas sales accounting for approximately 76% of total revenue during the reporting periods [4] - The company has faced challenges due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., raising concerns about the stability of its foreign sales amid potential trade tensions [5] Regulatory Concerns - The Beijing Stock Exchange's inquiries focused on the rationale behind the company's 2023 performance growth, the sustainability of foreign sales, and the impact of international trade policies on its business [7] - Specific questions included the need for a quantitative analysis of revenue growth drivers and a comprehensive assessment of external market conditions affecting sales [7]

麦克勒姆直言："美国发起的贸易摩擦仍是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他表示，自加央行4月中旬作 出维持政策利率的决定以来，美国政府不断增减各种关税。剧烈的金融动荡现有所缓和，但贸易谈判的 结果仍高度不确定，关税远高于今年年初水平，新的贸易行动还可能出现。最近美国进一步提高钢铝关 税，凸显了其贸易政策的不可预测性。 加央行认为，加拿大今年首季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长2.2%，略高于加央行预测，但GDP增长构成基 本符合预期。尽管消费者信心大幅下滑，消费仍保持增长。劳动力市场，尤其是贸易密集型行业呈现疲 态，失业率已升至6.9%。预计加拿大第二季度经济将大幅疲软。 在加联邦政府取消消费者碳税的背景下，加拿大4月份通胀率降至1.7%。但若扣除税收因素，通胀率上 涨2.3%，略高于加央行预期。核心通胀指标及其他潜在通胀指标均有所上升。 中新社多伦多6月4日电(记者余瑞冬)加拿大央行4日宣布，基于当前不确定性依然很高，决定维持基准 利率(即隔夜拆借利率)在2.75%不变。 加央行行长麦克勒姆在渥太华对媒体表示，加拿大经济有所疲软，但并未大幅减弱。近期通胀数据也呈 现出一定程度的坚挺。 加央行表示，将继续关注加拿大经济 ...

美股全线上涨。 截至发稿，道指涨0.11%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳斯达克指数涨0.17%。 | L | | w 美股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 Ａ股 | 美股 | 全球 | 商品 | 外汇 lil | | 美股市场概况 | | 财经日历 | | 海外机构持合 ot | | 美股指数 它 | | | | | | 道琼斯 | | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | 42567.52 | | 19432.60 | | 5981.21 | | +47.88 +0.11% | | +33.64 +0.17% | | +10.84 +0.18% | 美国商务部长卢特尼克宣称，特朗普将于6月底之前推出飞机关税。波音公司股价呈现出V形走势，跌幅收窄至0.1%。 两年期美债收益率跌约7.0个基点，刷新日低至3.88%下方。 ICE美元指数跌0.3%，刷新日低至98.932点；彭博美元指数跌超0.4%，刷新日低至1208.60点。 现货黄金短线上涨10美元，重返3365美元/盎司上方，日内涨幅重新扩大至0.36%。 欧股普遍上涨，英国富时100指数涨0.34% ...

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-08 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-06 02 09 01 05 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

6月2日，现货黄金跳空高开，重新站上3300美元关口。 上周五，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称6月4日起把进口钢铁关税提高至50%，贸易局势再度发生变化。 当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特 朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响，从下周起，美国进口钢铁 关税将从25%提高至50%。" 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12日，特朗普对所有进口至美 国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 贸易局势的动荡不安，使得市场的避险情绪迅速升温。投资者们纷纷将目光投向黄金这一传统的避险资产，寻求资产的安全港 湾。在此背景下，黄金市场也呈现出不同的走势。 从纽商所黄金期货主力合约的表现来看，5月该合约小幅下跌，跌幅约为0.11%。不过，若将时间轴拉长，今年以来国际金价的 累计涨幅却相当可观，达到了约25.5%。这一数据充分显示出，尽管短期内黄金价格可能会有所波动，但在全球经济不确定 ...

双方将重点就以下议题交换意见：推动乌克兰局势缓和与和平进程、北约在当前国际安全形势下的应对 方式以及美欧之间持续存在的贸易摩擦问题，特别是美国近期提出的提高钢铁与铝产品关税事宜。6月4 日，美国进口钢铝关税从25%提高至50%的政策正式生效。 据了解，这是默茨自5月6日就任德国总理以来首次与特朗普面对面会晤。 两人曾在数年前于纽约有过一次短暂接触。为筹备本次访问，德国外交部长约翰.瓦德富尔已于上周提 前抵达华盛顿，与美国国务卿马尔科.鲁比奥进行会谈。 消息面上，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了建设性会 谈。 关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 当地时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表 遗憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快 谈判进程。 此外，还有一则消息值得注意，德国联邦总理弗里德里希.默茨将启程前往美国，展开上任以来首次对 华盛顿的正式访问。按照计划，他将于5日在白宫与美国总统唐纳德.特朗普举行闭门会谈，并出席相关 活动。 ...

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