Core Insights - Since March, the central bank has actively responded to short-term situations, implementing precise measures to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment. Although the probability of further rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low, the central bank is expected to utilize appropriate tools if necessary to ensure stable liquidity. The bond market is likely to return to an upward trend, and investors are encouraged to seize the buying opportunity in July and August [1][5][24]. July Monetary Policy and Liquidity Outlook - July is a significant month for tax payments, which will increase liquidity disturbances [15]. - Approximately 2.8 trillion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature in July, primarily consisting of one-year and three-month maturities. In the context of a slowing deposit absorption pace, banks are likely to have strong motivation to replenish the certificate of deposit gap [17]. - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower than in June, with net financing around 1.4 trillion yuan. Additionally, nearly 200 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds have yet to be issued [20]. - There will be 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos and 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing in July, with the scale being higher than in June. Investors are closely watching whether the central bank will initiate bond buying and change the announcement method [22]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank has been actively addressing different monthly demands since March, maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity stance. The policy toolbox has become "multi-term and flexible," allowing for timely decisions based on market needs [11][22]. - The market is currently focused on whether the central bank will restart bond buying. This ongoing speculation has influenced market trends, with investors closely monitoring indicators that reflect market liquidity and central bank intentions [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the game points of Treasury bond futures are concentrated on the dual disturbances of risk preference and capital. The stock - bond seesaw effect dominates the market rhythm. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the rise of long - term interest rates pushes down the bond futures prices. The government bond tax payment peak and cross - month factors cause concerns about capital tightness, further suppressing the long sentiment of bond futures. However, the current domestic economic recovery momentum is still weak, so the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and the liquidity environment is generally loose [3]. - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate under the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy tones and external disturbances will dominate the direction of the market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.65, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.16 (-0.17%); the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1564, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.23 (-13.22%); DR007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.37 (-19.32%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.57, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.02%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-1.02%) [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On July 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 106.21 yuan, 109.01 yuan, and 120.74 yuan respectively, with price changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.28% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was -0.011 yuan, -0.048 yuan, -0.029 yuan, and -0.017 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital - On July 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.367%, 1.530%, 1.569%, and 1.617% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to spreads are given, such as the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to two - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity [46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to five - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to ten - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to thirty - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [74]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.28% to 120.740, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 109.005, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 106.205, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.01% to 102.488 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.8520%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7175%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6435%, and the 2-year government bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.3660% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 131 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 131 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2] - After the month-end, the funding conditions for banks have returned to a loose state, with overnight pledged repo rates dropping over 14 basis points to 1.36%, and seven-day pledged repo rates declining over 37 basis points [2] Operational Suggestions - As the funding conditions turn loose at the beginning of the month, the overall bond market has rebounded, but there is currently a lack of momentum to break previous highs [3] - Key points to monitor include whether funding rates can further decline, the subsequent fundamental conditions, and whether the central bank will announce government bond trading situations [3] - For government bond futures strategy, it is suggested to appropriately allocate long positions during adjustments, take profit near previous highs, and pay attention to economic data and funding trends [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - From June 23 to June 30, the PBOC conducted a total of 2,027.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, achieving a net injection of 1,067.2 billion yuan after offsetting 960.3 billion yuan of maturing repos [1] - In July, the overall net financing of government bonds is expected to be around 1,200 billion yuan, with a liquidity gap of approximately 1,000 billion yuan after excluding MLF and reverse repo maturities [1] Group 2 - Fiscal factors are anticipated to have an increasing impact on liquidity in July, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting government bond purchases to inject liquidity [2] - The PBOC's willingness to maintain liquidity support is expected to continue beyond the quarter-end, even if it does not restart government bond purchases or utilize total tools [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced but tight funding environment, slight increases in long-term bond yields, and the implications for bond traders and investors as they await lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is described as balanced but tight, with a slight upward movement in long-term bond yields [1]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion, with a net injection of 111.0 billion after 220.5 billion matured [1]. - The overnight funding rates (DR001 and DR007) increased by 14 basis points to approximately 1.51% and 22 basis points to approximately 1.92%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for June met expectations at 49.7, which is consistent with the previous value of 49.5 [3]. - The stock market showed strong performance amid the tight funding conditions, with interest rates peaking at 1.653% during the day [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Sentiment - Bond traders are adopting a "wait and see" approach, anticipating a drop in interest rates below previous lows [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.6475% [3].

文字早评 2025/06/30 星期一 宏观金融类 宏观消息面： 1、央行等六部门：创新适应家庭财富管理需求的金融产品，规范居民投资理财业务， 提高居民财产性收入； 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应 效率、加强基础金融服务； 3、以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12 天的冲突 于北京时间 24 日结束；4、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资 券商，支持加密货币交易等业务；5、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会 降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办关于银行资本的会议；6、商务部：中美 6 月 9 日至 10 日伦敦经贸会 谈后，近日双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取 消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。7、沪深交易所：拟将主板风险警示股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为 10%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.76%/-1.00%/-1.15%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.26%/-2.02%/-3.96 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 本周市场放量突破 3400 一带压力，周线月线趋势看，指数的上行趋势依然没结束。 周五市场由银行板块大幅调整引发市场三连阳后出现一定调整， 目前调整性质还需观察，主 要看下周初的市场反馈： 一方面，半年末资金面紧张的时间点到下周一 6 月 30 日就过去了 ， 周五国债回购利率大 涨也是引发调整因素之一，看周二是否在短期资金面利空过去后企稳回升，甚至市场强的 话，周一就会提前企稳。 上述消息面总体偏暖，重点是市场反馈。 如果市场依然强，那么下周初在资金面利空过去 后，应该重回上行趋势；否则，短期要做适当防御。 中期趋势上 ，从指数的 ERP 、估值、证券化率等指标看，依然性价比较高，同时近期大宗 商品包括黑色系、基本金属和多晶硅、工业硅等的连续异动，这也是 PPI 未来走高的重要前 兆， 下半年依然看好。 免责声明：本文内容为作者个人观点，本站只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。如需转载，注意不得篡改原 文题目和内容，本站 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]