Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery and trends in service consumption in China, highlighting the differences between service and goods consumption growth, as well as the performance of various sectors within service consumption. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a strong rebound for about a year, with a notable increase in growth rates for service retail compared to goods retail. In 2023, service retail grew by 20%, significantly outpacing the 5.8% growth in goods retail. In 2024, service retail is expected to grow by 6.2%, exceeding goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [2]. - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2024 has contributed to a sustained increase in goods consumption growth, with an estimated 1.5 percentage points increase in consumption driven by this policy [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Recovery - The fastest recovery within service consumption is observed in cultural entertainment and dining services, with 2023 year-on-year growth rates of 39.2% and 27.6%, respectively. Their share of cash consumption increased from 3% and 7.5% in 2022 to 3.7% and 8.7% in 2023 [5]. - In 2024, the growth rates for cultural entertainment and dining services are projected to be 10.6% and 8.4%, with their shares of cash consumption rising to 3.9% and 8.9% [5]. Group 3: Urban vs. Rural Consumption - Urban residents have shown a faster recovery in tourism consumption compared to rural residents, with tourism numbers and income recovering to 97.7% and 103.8% of 2019 levels, respectively, while rural residents lag at 81.4% and 84.7% [10]. - Rural residents are more inclined to spend on food, clothing, and daily necessities, with spending growth rates in these categories exceeding those of urban residents in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Seasonal Consumption Patterns - Tourism consumption exhibits a clear holiday concentration, with the proportion of total tourism numbers and income during major holidays like May Day and National Day remaining above pre-pandemic levels, despite a slight decrease from 2020 [11]. Group 5: Per Capita Spending Trends - Per capita tourism spending rapidly recovered to 90% of 2019 levels in 2023 but has since plateaued, indicating a stabilization phase in consumer spending patterns [12]. Group 6: Dining Consumption Insights - There is a notable disparity in growth rates between dining consumption in different market segments, with lower-tier dining establishments experiencing a 6.3% growth compared to just 3% for higher-tier establishments in 2024 [16]. - The performance of dining companies varies significantly based on their market focus, with those operating in lower-tier cities showing substantial profit growth, while those in higher-tier cities face declines [18].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the heavy-duty truck (重卡) market in China, specifically analyzing sales data for May and the first five months of the year [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **May Wholesale and Retail Sales**: - May wholesale sales reached 83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a month-on-month decrease of 5% [1]. - Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 436,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1]. - Retail sales in May were approximately 65,000 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 21% but a month-on-month decline of 5% [1]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first five months were about 287,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 13% [1]. - **Impact of Policies**: - The overall retail performance exceeding wholesale is attributed to the gradual effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy implemented across various provinces [1]. - Over 85% of provincial "old-for-new" policies have been introduced, indicating a positive trend for future sales [2]. - **Natural Gas Heavy-Duty Trucks**: - Retail sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks in May were around 15,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 29% and a month-on-month decline of 12% [1]. - Cumulative sales for the first five months were 79,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15% [1]. - The penetration rate for natural gas trucks in May was approximately 23%, down 16 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points month-on-month [1][2]. - **Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks**: - Retail sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in May are expected to exceed 15,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 182% [2]. - Cumulative sales for the first five months surpassed 60,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 188% [2]. - The penetration rate for electric trucks in May exceeded 23%, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Sales Growth Trends**: - Retail sales growth rates for March, April, and May were -4%, +6%, and +21% respectively, indicating a consistent month-on-month improvement [2]. - The anticipated effects of policies are expected to become more pronounced starting in June, with projections suggesting a potential year-on-year sales increase of 27% for the second half of the year under optimistic assumptions [2]. Additional Important Insights - The decline in natural gas truck penetration is primarily due to the slow implementation of the "old-for-new" policy in some northern provinces and a decrease in oil prices [2]. - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with projections for total annual sales ranging from 930,000 to 1,030,000 units, depending on market conditions [2].

Group 1 - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a total sales increase of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories by May 31, 2025, and approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] - The automotive sector saw 4.12 million subsidy applications, while 49.86 million consumers purchased 77.62 million home appliances, and 5.35 million consumers bought 5.66 million digital products [1] - Companies in various sectors are benefiting from this policy, with Nasda's printer sales expected to accelerate due to the inclusion of printers in the trade-in subsidy program [1] Group 2 - Aima Technology Group reported that increased subsidies in regions like Zhejiang and Jiangsu have lowered consumer costs for electric bicycles, with subsidies reaching 1,000 to 1,200 yuan per unit [2] - TCL Technology Group achieved a revenue of 40.075 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 0.42% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 321.96% to 1.016 billion yuan, driven by stable global TV retail and increased demand for larger screens [2] - The company emphasized that the average size of global TVs has increased, leading to higher panel prices and improved industry capacity utilization [2] Group 3 - Beiding Crystal Technology reported a 51.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, capitalizing on the trade-in policy by focusing on consumer needs and enhancing online and offline operations [3] - Jiangsu New Energy Electric Vehicle Co. noted that the combination of market recovery, new national standards, and the trade-in policy has driven sales growth and improved Q1 performance [3] - Experts suggest that companies should develop products that meet consumer demands for eco-friendliness, intelligence, and energy efficiency to foster a positive cycle between consumption and industry [3]

重卡：如何看以旧换新落地的影响？20250602 摘要 2025 年重卡以旧换新政策力度加大，报废置换柴油/天然气车最高补贴 9 万元，新能源重卡 14 万元，较重卡价格有吸引力。政策范围扩大至国 四标准，天然气重卡纳入补贴范围，显著扩大受益面。 2025 年以旧换新政策虽年初已出台，但因流程复杂，至 5 月下旬才开 始显效。多数省级政策已落地，过半地级市发布指引，预计 6 月起将显 著推动重卡销量。 预计 2025 年国内重卡销量约 105 万台，内销 75 万台，同比增长 25%，较此前预测上调 5 万台。出口预计持平，维持 30 万台。5 月销 量预计同比增长超 20%，6 月起增速或提升至 30%。 看好中国重汽、福田汽车、潍柴动力等整车企业。内需增长将使这些企 业受益，且业绩弹性大。销量超预期增加 5 万台，对主流企业业绩弹性 或达 15%。 边际销售费用较低，多卖出的车辆能带来显著利润增长。目前估值在 11-13 倍区间，这些公司性价比高，具备投资价值。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）重卡行业的以旧换新政策有哪些具体变化？ 今年（2025 年）重卡行业的以旧换新政策在多个方面进行了调整和扩展。首 先 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 02 日 6 月白电排产同比延续上涨，618 首周预售来临 看好 ——《2025/5/26-2025/5/30》家电周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 数据观察：4 月白电内销均有增长，外销表现分化 A、空调出货端：内销小有增长，外销略微下降。根据产业在线数据，2025 年 4 月空 调行业产量 2242.0 万台，同比上升 1.9%；总销量 2257.90 万台，同比上升 2.00%， 其中内销 1275.80 万台，同比上升 3.70%，出口 982.10 万台，同比下降 0.20%。分 品牌出货端：空调总销量美的位列第一。分品牌出货端：空调总销量美的位列第一。根 据产业在线披露，2025 年 4 月空调总销量市占率美的以 28.80%的市占率位列第一， 格力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [7] Core Insights - Retail sales in May are expected to reach 1.85 million units, supported by increased promotional discounts and new vehicle launches [1][39] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 51.6% in April, with a significant year-on-year increase [2][15] - The cumulative number of vehicle trade-in applications as of May 11, 2025, reached 3.225 million, indicating strong market support from the trade-in subsidy policy [3][39] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April, retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 1.781 million and 2.223 million units, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.8% and 11.0% [2][13] - The expected retail sales for May are projected to increase by 5.4% month-on-month [1] Discounts and Promotions - Discounts for both fuel and new energy vehicles increased in May, with fuel vehicles averaging a discount rate of 20.65% and NEVs at 5.56% [4] - Many automakers have introduced zero-interest and fixed-price schemes to lower purchase costs, with BYD offering a minimum price of 55,800 yuan for its models [5] Market Trends - The market for NEVs continues to grow, with April sales reaching 1.146 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [2][15] - The market share of domestic brands reached 65.8% in April, reflecting a strong competitive position [20] Inventory and Pricing - The overall inventory coefficient for automotive dealers decreased to 1.41 in April, indicating a healthy inventory level [29] - The average price of passenger vehicles remained stable at 170,000 yuan in April, with slight variations between fuel and NEV prices [28] Trade-in Policy Impact - The trade-in subsidy policy is expected to significantly boost vehicle sales, with an estimated increase of 960,000 to 1.93 million vehicles due to expanded eligibility [47]

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

Profitability Trends - In April, industrial enterprises' profit growth improved slightly to 3% year-on-year from 2.5% in March, driven by a recovery in profitability in downstream sectors[2] - The profit margin for downstream manufacturing rose from -3.5% in March to 5.4% in April, indicating a recovery in profitability[5] - The profit margin for the automotive manufacturing sector narrowed its year-on-year decline from 28.1% in March to 2.2% in April, contributing less to the overall industrial profit decline[5] Revenue and Growth Rates - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed, aligning with a decrease in export growth from 12.4% in March to 8.1% in April[2] - The adjusted profit margin for industrial enterprises in April was 5.3%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1 but improved from 5.2% in March[11] - The net financing amount of government bonds and local bonds from January to May increased by 3.7 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy[3] Sector-Specific Insights - The profit growth for the computer and communication sector surged from 12.7% in March to 30.8% in April, significantly contributing to the overall profit growth[5] - Upstream industries saw a profit decline of 30.8% year-on-year in April, worsening from a 26.4% decline in March, primarily due to falling oil and commodity prices[6] - The profit growth for the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector rose to 30.5% in April, up from 22.8% in March, reflecting improved profitability[11] Market Outlook - The reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. may support profit growth in export-related industries in Q2, although long-term external demand remains uncertain[3] - The fiscal policy is expected to strengthen further, aiming to support overall demand recovery amid slowing internal consumption[3] - The leverage ratio for industrial enterprises decreased to 57.71% in April, indicating a marginal improvement in financial stability[11]

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In April, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.226 million units, with domestic sales at 1.025 million units, showing a month-on-month decline of 5% but a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [2][4] - For the first four months of 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales totaled 4.429 million and 4.3 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.3% and 46.2% [5] Group 2: Battery Installation and Production - In April, the domestic power battery installation volume was 54.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [7] - The cumulative power battery installation volume from January to April reached 184.3 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 52.8% [7] Group 3: Energy Storage Market - In March, the domestic energy storage battery shipment volume was 47.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.8% [9] Group 4: Market Trends and Policies - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy and consumer incentives from car manufacturers, along with a half-price purchase tax policy at the end of the year, are expected to sustain growth in China's new energy vehicle market [16] - The U.S. market is anticipated to slow down due to increased tariffs and changes in potential new energy subsidy policies, while the European market is facing stricter carbon emission regulations [16]