据新华社消息，当地时间5月29日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫会见联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔，这是特朗普重返白宫以来首次与鲍威尔面对面会晤。白宫称特朗普敦促美联储降息，美联储则称鲍 威尔坚持独立制定货币政策。 这使得近期处于跌势的美国国债市场稍有缓和。白宫发言人表示"会上特朗普认为鲍威尔未能下调利率 是一个错误，此举使美国在经济上处于劣势"。尽管美联储的官方申明中并未透露降息的任何信息，但 市场打开了美联储降息的想象空间，毕竟这是特朗普总统第一次在正式场合敦促美联储降息。截至5月 29日，美国10年期、30年期国债收益率分别录得4.43%和4.92%，较5月21日的高点分别下降15和16基 点，美债市场情绪缓和。 未来美债市场好转的因素主要有：一是寄希望于美联储降息，或者QE规模加大长端国债的购买；二是 美国放松对机构购买美国国债的监管和限制；三是美国财政收支状况大幅改善。 从美联储资产负债表来看，截至5月28日，美联储持有的美国国债为42137亿美元，较4月30日 （42158.13亿美元）有所减少。而5月28日美联储持有的期限大于10年的美国国债总规模15669.6亿美 元，较4月30日增加了约9 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing review of Trump's tariff policy by the courts is causing market volatility, indicating a turbulent summer for Wall Street [1] - The comprehensive tariff policy announced on April 2 has significantly impacted the technology sector, although major stock indices have rebounded to near historical highs by the end of May [1] - The aggressive tariff policy has shaken the confidence of foreign investors holding trillions in U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to labor shortages in agriculture and construction due to immigration restrictions and government spending cuts [1] Group 2 - Despite companies stockpiling goods in the first quarter to cope with tariffs, weak shipping data in May shows continued caution in the business community [2] - The international trade court ruled multiple tariffs illegal, but the execution of this ruling has been temporarily stayed, leaving industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors still facing new tariff threats [2] - With the debt ceiling crisis approaching in August and inflation uncertainties, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in high-yielding Treasury bonds before rates decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dalio's "3% Solution" is gaining traction among White House officials and Republican leaders as a potential remedy for the U.S. fiscal crisis, despite ongoing efforts to pass a massive spending bill that could disrupt the bond market [1][2] Summary by Sections Proposed Solution - The "3% Solution" aims to reduce the annual deficit as a percentage of GDP from approximately 7% to 3% through three levers: spending cuts, tax increases, and corresponding interest rate reductions [1] Historical Context - Dalio asserts that the 3% Solution has been effective in various instances, with the most recent success occurring in the U.S. from 1991 to 1998 [1] Market Implications - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the budget is critical, as declining confidence in fiscal discipline leads to higher Treasury yields in the bond market [1] Political Challenges - There is a lack of bipartisan interest in substantial spending cuts, and tax increases are also difficult to initiate, which could result in higher interest rates [2] Urgency for Action - Dalio emphasizes that both parties acknowledge the necessity of reducing the deficit to around 3% of GDP to avoid dire consequences, likening the situation to a ship heading towards a reef [2] Potential Triggers for Legislative Action - A debt crisis may serve as a compelling mechanism to prompt lawmakers to take action to avert fiscal disaster [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures down 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.13% [1] - European indices show positive performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.57%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.59%, France's CAC40 up 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.42% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.08% to $61.60 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.96% to $63.96 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Policy Insights - Analysts warn that June may be challenging for the stock market, as historical data shows a weak performance in June, with an average increase of only 0.2% over the past 30 years. This is compounded by trade war risks and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [4] - Goldman Sachs' president highlights that the focus is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising US government debt, which is pushing up long-term interest rates and increasing the risk of a larger fiscal deficit [6] - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need for patience in policy decisions due to economic uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies on inflation and overall economic growth [7] Company-Specific Developments - Dell Technologies reported a 5% year-over-year increase in overall sales to $23.4 billion, driven by a significant rise in AI server orders [10] - Costco's Q3 revenue reached $63.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 8%, with net profit rising to $1.9 billion [11] - Tiger Brokers reported a 55% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue to $123 million, with net profit up 145% [12] - Gap Inc. warned that tariffs could erode $300 million in annual operating profit, despite reporting Q1 revenue of $3.46 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [13] - Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals experienced stock declines following mixed results from trials of a new drug for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [14]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that the threat to the bond market from debt has surpassed that of tariffs, with rising concerns among bond traders regarding the U.S. government's debt levels [1] - John Waldron, President of Goldman Sachs, emphasizes that the macro-level risk is shifting from tariffs to the implications of tax cuts and fiscal conditions, which are increasingly alarming [1] - The increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is pushing up interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, making government debt more expensive and raising the risk of a growing deficit and higher borrowing costs for the economy [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields coincides with intense bipartisan negotiations in Congress over a significant tax cut bill proposed during Trump's second term, raising concerns about the worsening fiscal outlook for the U.S. [4] - The House passed a bill that extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and raises the debt ceiling, but it faces challenges in the Senate, where Republicans plan to make amendments [5] - Market participants are worried that the bill's measures could exacerbate the U.S. government's budget deficit, leading to greater pressure on the bond market [5] Group 3 - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, reflecting the impact of tax policies from Trump's first term and the debt explosion during the COVID-19 pandemic under both Trump and Biden [6] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应预期增大，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

两年期美债收益率跌5.35个基点，报3.9386%，日内交投于4.0478%-3.9324%区间。 周四（5月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌5.93个基点，报4.4180%，日内交投于 4.5370%-4.4121%区间，北京时间18:00-22:00显著下挫。 ...

Group 1 - Japan is unlikely to sell its large holdings of US Treasury bonds despite the recent drop in bond prices, as there are no better alternative investments available [1][2] - Japan, like other countries, prefers to hold US dollars for foreign exchange reserves rather than euros, due to the depth of the US capital markets and the strong technological competitiveness of the US [2] - The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, with a current share of 58% in global foreign exchange reserves, although this is the lowest level in decades [5] Group 2 - There are doubts about the euro's potential to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, primarily due to political fragmentation in Europe and the lack of depth in European capital markets [4][5] - The influence of the Chinese yuan is seen as more promising in challenging the dollar's dominance in Asia, with an increasing amount of trade being settled in yuan [5] - The euro currently accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the dollar's share [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, expresses a lack of interest in buying long-term U.S. Treasuries, indicating that U.S. Treasury yields may rise [1] Group 1 - The current sentiment in the market suggests a potential increase in U.S. Treasury yields, which could impact investment strategies [1] - Michele's stance reflects a broader trend among investors who are cautious about long-duration bonds amid changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].