2025 年 05 月 18 日 筹码定天下：银行和微盘的新高 本周上证指数涨 0.76%，沪深 300 涨 1.12%，创业板指涨 1.38%，恒生指数跌 2.09%，成长风格表现强于价值风格。本周全 A 日均交易额 12662 亿，环比上 周有所下降。5 月 12 日中美双方在对等关税落地后首轮谈判超预期落地，在限 制期限内保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税，全球风险资 产迎来一轮集中的 risk-on，主要呈现为黄金大跌、美股大涨接近前高，对应本 周 A 股市场由于黄金坑兑现已经完成"填坑行情"，相较于外围定价风险偏好 提升显得颇为冷静。事实上，目前内部资金的心情则稍显复杂，看到银行和小微 盘双双创出新高，杠铃策略的演绎进一步走向极致，似乎"筹码定天下"的环境 再次出现。同时也对大盘指数存在一定忧虑：一方面来自于关税谈判超预期落 地后，是否会削弱国内"对冲政策"必要性的预期；另一方面，首轮关税谈判所 产生乐观情绪是否是未来一段时间的顶点，后续是否存在反复或者进一步加剧 的风险。在此，我们依然强调：大盘指数在黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"思维， 尽管大盘在"出坑"后风险偏好集中提升阶段已经结 ...

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250517 北证 A 股成交活跃度回升，把握中长期成长 板块布局 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 北交所市场表现 行业重要新闻： 投资建议 2025 年 05 月 17 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《国家金融监督管理总局公布 2025 年一季度银行业保险业主要监管指标 数据情况。》 2025-05-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行情回顾：本周北证 50 指数上升 3.13%，北证 A 股温和走高： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to show stronger resilience, reflecting a "self-centered" approach, with positive signals from the easing of Sino-US trade tensions [1] - The recent joint statement from the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks has alleviated potential pressures on domestic economic growth, leading to an upward revision of corporate profit expectations [1] - Investment recommendations include focusing on defensive dividend sectors, technology narratives, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [1] Group 2 - After the release of short-term profit-taking pressure, the A-share market is anticipated to return to a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2] - The introduction of floating rate funds marks the practical phase of fee reform, with a recovery in real financing demand expected to be reflected in upcoming social financing data [2] - The issuance of special government bonds and the increase in central bank support for financial companies indicate that market downside risks are manageable [2] Group 3 - The index is expected to continue oscillating, with sector rotation likely to persist due to easing trade tensions and domestic demand expansion policies [3] - Short-term focus areas include export chains, self-sufficiency sectors, and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in services [3] - High dividend sectors are projected to maintain investment value, with attention on banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation following recent monetary easing [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 北交所修订重组相关规则，关注北证 50 成份调整带来的个股变动 ——北交所周观察第二十六期（20250518） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 北证 50 指数迎来本年内第 2 次调整，关注北证 50 指数成份股预期变动。根据《北证指数计 算与维护细则》，北证 50 指数样本股将进行 2025 年第 2 次调整，实施生效时间将是 2025 年 6 月第二个周五的下一个交易日（即 6 月 16 日）。我们以 2025 年 5 月 16 日作为基准日， 依据上述条件进行筛选，我们在剔除上市时长【6 个月】和日均成交额不达标的公司后，按照 区间成交额和市值计算预计新调入指数的 5 家公司或为利尔达、铜冠矿建、万达 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience and vitality, with the Hang Seng Index continuously recovering since April, reaching a six-week consecutive rise by mid-May [1][2] - As of May 16, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.09% for the week, closing at 23,300 points, with significant contributions from entertainment, AI, and robotics sectors [2][4] Group 2: Star Stocks and Performance - Notable stocks include Zhisheng Technology Group, Lehua Entertainment, and Shengtong Technology, with stock prices doubling; Zhisheng Technology Group's stock surged by 208% [2][3] - Fourth Paradigm reported a 30.1% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 1.077 billion yuan, leading to an 11.63% stock price increase [4] - Tencent Music's net profit for Q1 reached 4.29 billion yuan, a 201.8% increase year-on-year, with its stock price rising over 14% [4] Group 3: Sector Highlights - AI and robotics stocks have become market stars, with Shengtong Technology launching advanced AI solutions and forming partnerships to enhance its market position [3] - The robotics sector saw significant activity, exemplified by UBTECH's 20% stock increase following a partnership with Huawei to develop humanoid robots [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hang Seng Index could test the 24,000-point mark if trading volumes remain strong, with a potential challenge to the March high of 24,874 points depending on market sentiment [5][6] - The market is expected to benefit from a recovery in prices and valuations across most sectors, with a focus on technology innovation, high dividend stocks, and policy-driven opportunities [6]

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 险资买入银行，社保增持地产 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 事项： 我们从上市公司前十大股东名单中筛选出险资、社保基金、基本养老金、企业年金 四类持股主体，分析四类长钱季度间风格变化。其中，险资剔除中国人寿集团持有国寿 股份，中国平安持有平安集团及员工长期计划。 根据业绩期披露时间节点，我们将形成每年三次的长钱重仓风格分析报告（如 24&25Q1，25Q2，25Q3），历史系统性梳理见此前外发报告《从重仓看中长期资金入市》。 评论： 一、险资重仓：增持交运、食饮，减持公用事业、石油石化 险资 24 年规模快速增长，股票与基金合计占比 12.7%。截至 2024 年底，保险行业资金 运用余额达到 33.26 万亿，同比增长 15%（披露口径）。2024 年，险资实现年化财务投资 收益率 3.43%，年化综合投 ...

Group 1 - The coal industry is at the dawn of a new cycle, with short-term coal prices still in a bottom-seeking phase, but positive signals are emerging, indicating structural opportunities [1] - Non-electric demand for thermal coal is expected to continue releasing momentum, while coking coal benefits from strong infrastructure investment, leading to a recovery trend in coking coal demand [1] - The cost support on the supply side is solidifying the industry's bottom, with current coal prices nearing the average cost line, allowing leading coal companies to maintain robust profitability [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the coal sector's revenue decreased by 3.7% to 1,374.3 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 17.5% to 153 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) decline of 3.3 percentage points to 12.7% [2] - The thermal coal segment showed resilience with a net profit decline of only 7.4%, while the coking coal segment suffered a significant net profit drop of 51.9% due to price pressures [2] - The dividend payout ratio for the sector increased by 3.7 percentage points to 60.1%, with companies like China Shenhua (76.5%) and Shaanxi Coal (65%) maintaining strong dividend capabilities [2] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, the coal sector's revenue dropped by 17% to 284.6 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29% to 30.1 billion, with a gross margin decline of 0.7 percentage points to 27.8% [3] - The thermal coal segment's profit decline was narrower at 24.1%, while the coking coal segment faced a significant profit drop of 54.6% [3] - Overall production of listed coal companies increased by 5.8% year-on-year, but sales only slightly increased by 0.4%, indicating pressure on the sales front [3]

5月以来，股指期货持续走强。周三，上证50、沪深300股指期货强势上涨，截至收盘，二者涨幅均超过 1%；周四，股指期货则集体出现回调。 物产中大期货宏观高级分析师周之云认为，近期股指上涨的动力主要来自两方面：一是国内利好政策的 出台，尤其是5月7日在国新办新闻发布会上央行宣布降准降息，无论是时点还是力度均超出市场预期， 市场情绪转好；二是近期美股走势稳定，市场处在缓慢修复的过程中，未出现新的"黑天鹅事件"。此 外，周三午后国内市场传出消息称，公募基金业绩和比较基准挂钩，而目前市场上许多公募基金的比较 基准为沪深300指数，受此影响，资金再次流向相关成分股，银行、保险、券商板块大幅走高带动上证 指数重返3400点。 "后续来看，国内政策面高度重视市场的良性发展，政策利好落地令市场信心增强，随着中美关税税率 重回合理区间，利空因素趋弱，股指方向进一步明朗。"周之云认为，当前做多股指仍是不错的选择， 而以沪深300和上证50指数为代表的高股息板块将再次成为推动市场上行的重要力量，值得重点关注。 （文章来源：期货日报） 中信建投期货金融分析师孟庆姝表示，近日证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简 称《行 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 盘面再现高股息行情 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 国内政策推进。宏观方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当 前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循 环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。海外方面，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中 服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以来最大单月跌幅。上周初请失业金人数持平于22.9万人，符合市场预期。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.68%收于3380.82点，创业板指跌1.92%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅美容护理、煤炭、公用事业、农林牧渔行业收红，计算机、通信、电子、传媒行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.15亿元。证监会修订发布《上市公司募集资金监管规则》，强调募集资金 使用应专款专用，用于主营业务，明确超募资金最终用途应为在建项目及新项目、回购注销，不得用于永久补充 流动资金和偿还银行借款。海外市场，鲍威尔表示 ...