G20财长会议上，中方代表团明确拒绝美国财长会面请求，而与九国展开对话，此举被视为对特朗普145%超高关税的强硬回应。 面对中方冷处理，特朗普急称"接到北京来电"却被直接驳斥，同时中国正大规模取消美国订单，从农产品到能源全面反制。 中美关税交锋背后有何战略考量？对话被拒绝的真正原因是什么？ 作者-凯 冷眼相待，拒绝搭台 华盛顿会议厅内，美国财长贝森特的表情像是吃了苦瓜一般难看。他手边那张空荡荡的会谈安排表，仿佛在无声地嘲笑着他的自信。 原本预期的中美高层对话，变成了一场单相思的尴尬。中国财政部长蓝佛安虽然确实到达华盛顿参加G20财长会议，但他的日程表上，唯独美国这一栏画了 个大大的叉。 前言 更让贝森特心塞的是，中方代表团在这两天竟与九个国家和国际组织安排了一对一会晤，唯独将美国排除在外。这种明显的"选择性沟通"，用行动传递出一 个再清晰不过的信号：中国无意在此时与美国坐下来谈。 会议期间，蓝佛安发言直指关税战对全球经济的破坏性影响，强调中方将坚定维护以世贸组织为基础的多边贸易体系。台下的各国代表纷纷点头，而美方代 表则神情尴尬。 贝森特此前还通过媒体放出风来，说要与中方进行"面对面交流"，殊不知中方对这种带 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 04 月 27 日 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避五一假期风险 豆一：回调震荡，规避假期风险 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（04.21-04.25），美豆期价涨跌互现、重心小幅上移，期价下跌因为：美国总统特朗普批评美 联储主席未能及时降息、中方否认中美关税谈判。期价上涨因为：美国贸易谈判希望、美方称中美正在谈 判、特朗普称没有解雇美联储主席计划等。本周没有美豆大额销售订单。从周 K 线角度，4 月 25 日当 周，美豆主力 07 合约周涨幅 1.19%，美豆粕主力 07 合约周跌幅 1.62%。 上周（04.21-04.25），国内豆粕和豆一期价先涨后跌。豆粕方面，盘面波动主要来自于现货市场和 05 合约的间接影响：周初现货报价大幅上涨、且北方带动南方地区上涨，因现货紧张；周四下午及周五现 货报价又大幅下调，现货紧张情绪初步缓解。豆一方面，主要跟随豆粕现货价格大幅波动，豆粕价格上 涨，油豆收购积极性增加、并带动食品豆价格好转。从周 K 线角度，4 月 25 日当周，豆粕主力 m2509 合 约周涨幅 0.3 ...

这下，印度彻底尴尬了，莫迪万万没想到强硬的特朗普竟然"滑跪"的这么快，主动对中方认怂，那他前两天对中国的制裁岂不成了笑话？ 4月21日当天，万斯乘坐专机抵达印度首都新德里，和总理莫迪进行会晤。或许是为了向美国表明立场，在万斯抵达的当天，印度宣布对中国部分进口钢材 加征12%的临时关税，理由是避免中国的"廉价进口"。话里话外透露出一种："中国长期占印度便宜，但印度"敢怒不敢言"的悲愤，幸好美国表态撑腰，印 度才敢反击"的既视感。 此话一出，外界都清楚这场关税战已经来到尾声了，胜利者毫无疑问就是中国，尽管这是特朗普掀起的全球性关税战，但中国却率先出击打出了漂亮的一 仗。那么在特朗普认怂想要和谈的情况下，莫迪对中国加征临时关税的举动就显的有些小丑了，美国都不敢和中国对着干，那么印度这关税到底还加不加 了？如果加，印度根本扛不住中国的反制；如果不加，那刚刚说出去的话就要收回，这让莫迪政府无法对内交代，对外也将成为印度难以抹去的污点。 或许是看热闹不嫌事儿大，有媒体又报料称，此前被中国拒绝接受的美国波音客机被印度公司看上，已经在谈接盘事宜了。合着印度根本就不是现在才表 态，而是之前一直都暗戳戳的介入中美关税战的博弈，想 ...

2025 近期会议安排预告 数据来源：金联创 丙烷方面，丙烷前期价格走高后周内不同程度回落，上游出货意愿增加，但终端需求偏弱，下游入市谨 慎，低价资源成交尚可，高价资源仍显不畅。国际原油持续收跌，加之五一假期临近，上游多有意出货 控制库存。山东地区工业接货价格低位运行，周内山东化工用丙烷价格多有下调。 后市来看：下周国际原油价格或呈现震荡的态势。关税冲突虽然依然存在，但中国进口商心态较前期平 缓，国际液化气市场，目前市场期待中美关税冲突能有所改善，加之中国市场买家依然较为积极采购。 市场转向关注5月下半月到岸货物，因届时美国货物供应的缺失，市场整体供需面拉紧，因此国际液化 气市场价格或依然有走高的可能性。民用气方面，国际原油走势震荡，消息面缺乏明显指引。基本面来 看，下游装置利润欠佳，化工需求支撑有限，下周五一假期临近，节前炼厂排库或以出货为主，下周民 用市场价格或偏弱震荡。 原料气方面，终端汽油需求欠佳，临近五一假期，上游炼厂排库为先，且消 息面难寻实质性利好，预计下周走势偏弱。进口气来看，5月CP预期小跌，但进口成本预计变动不大， 国际市场不确定性仍存，业者谨慎观望。码头到船增多局部供应充裕，码头成交价格 ...

期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 周报 2025-04-27 5-9 月差走强，关注五一织造放假情况 策略摘要 基本面方面，特朗普对中国关税态度有所缓和，但问题依旧没有有效解决，直接出口 美国的纺服订单依然处于暂停状态，聚酯减产预期压制市场心态，关注后续中美谈判 情况，PX 和 PTA 依然维持低估值和去库状态，但在汽油弱势和需求预期偏弱的情况下 反弹幅度也有限，近期关注原油和宏观变动。短纤方面，当前美国关税逐步向好发 展，市场心态走稳，但追高意愿不足，五一期间部分纱厂有放假计划，原料囤货意愿 一般，行情维持震荡盘整。PR 方面，关税政策对瓶片自身需求影响较小，但瓶片负荷 回归高位，瓶片工厂加工区间有限，市场价格预计仍跟随原料成本波动。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 成本端，原油价格先涨后跌。当前供需面多空消息交织，一方面宏观影响油价走势。 美伊及俄乌地缘政治风险降温。同时多个 OPEC+成员国计划在 6 月会议上提议加快增 产速度，原油供应压力持续；不过下半周特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，市 场恐慌指数回落，同时也表示将对中国关税大幅下降，宏观情绪改善推动油价反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解偏弱运行， ...

随着特朗普发起关税风波之后，这直接推动了金价飙升至了历史高位，创下了自1986年以来最强的季度表 现，而加关税导致了黄金频频暴涨，而关税缓和之后黄金也是出现了猛烈回调，而本周的黄金市场那叫一 个热闹！黄金价格就像坐过山车一样，让无数投资者又爱又恨。这不，我赶紧来跟大家唠唠，说说下周的 机会。 黄金短线调整，长期依旧看涨！ 如果要用一个词来形容全球金融市场在2025季度表现的话，那么除了"东升西落"外，还有一个词也将格外 适用："避险为王"……黄金 那么下周的趋势如何看？二次反抽延续下跌是关键，通常强势中的大跌，不要急于看连阴，一定要注意分 水岭，一个是价格，一个是时间。而本周尾盘虽说回撤3265一线之后反抽上扬，但整体走势上依旧承压， 下周反抽之后依旧看空做调整即可！ 黄金：下周开盘关注3337-45位置情况，反抽到位依旧看空，继续看测试3260一线！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资 者有用的分析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 【以上观点，仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎】 短期美方对贸易谈判的呼声较高，市场风险偏好回升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for MEG is neutral, with attention on Sino-US tariff negotiations and crude oil price fluctuations [9] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] - In terms of inventory, on Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy may lead to the exemption of subsequent ethane import tariffs. On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual progress of ethane-based plants and the adjustment of imported supplies. On the demand side, the short-term polyester load remains high and stable, but direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold. The expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the holiday situation of weaving factories around May Day and the progress of subsequent Sino-US negotiations. Overall, the current EG inventory is at the seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still relatively high, providing a certain buffer. The actual change in port inventory is limited, and the fundamental contradictions of EG are not significant. Attention should be paid to macro dynamics [3] EG Basis Structure - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] EG Production Profit and Operating Rate - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] EG Import Profit & International Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the text regarding EG import profit and international price difference Downstream Polyester Situation - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] EG Inventory Trend - On Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Elon Musk's robotics industry due to China's rare earth export restrictions, highlighting the potential implications for U.S.-China relations and the broader impact on American businesses [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of U.S.-China Trade War - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely affected American companies, with Musk's Tesla experiencing a market value drop of over 40% and significant declines in product sales [3]. - Musk's robotics mass production plans are at risk due to China's rare earth supply restrictions, prompting him to seek export licenses from China [3][5]. Group 2: China's Position on Rare Earth Exports - China is unlikely to approve Musk's request for rare earth exports, as doing so could undermine its leverage in ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [5]. - Allowing Musk's request could set a precedent for other U.S. companies to seek similar concessions, potentially benefiting the U.S. military-industrial complex [5][7]. Group 3: Supervision and Trust Issues - There are significant challenges in establishing a reliable supervision mechanism for rare earth exports from China to the U.S., particularly given the current geopolitical climate [7]. - Trust issues arise from the inability to ensure that exported materials will not be used for military purposes, complicating any potential agreement [7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Musk - A potential solution for Musk could be relocating his robotics manufacturing to China, which would alleviate production challenges but contradict Trump's "America First" policy [9]. - The article suggests that Musk should engage directly with Trump to negotiate a resolution to the trade issues, as recent signals indicate a willingness from Trump to lower tariffs on China [9].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.17%，报收 69.15 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.58%，报收 12990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1639 手 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14188 元/吨，较前一日增加 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普释放中美关税政策缓和 | | | | 信号，美元指数自低位回升，昨日重心略有下移，ICE 美棉期价震荡运行，预计短 | | | | 期宏观扰动仍存。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势，市场情绪影响仍 | | | | 然较大。展望未来，我们认为本年度最艰难时刻大概率已经度过，中美关税较此前 | | | | 再度增加概率偏低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应端扰动不大，下游 | | | | 需求虽相对有限，但能看到棉花商业库存在逐渐下 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...