Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments to support sustained economic growth and stability [1][2] - The Chinese economy shows significant vitality through various sectors such as film, tourism, and technology, indicating strong domestic economic potential [1] - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5%, reflecting confidence in its governance capabilities and future development potential [2] Group 2 - The focus is on deepening economic reforms and promoting a unified national market to enhance the business environment and support innovation [2] - The international perspective highlights the importance of open markets and resource sharing among nations to address global economic fragmentation and uncertainty [3] - China is committed to maintaining economic globalization, advocating for fair competition, and facilitating foreign enterprises' integration into the Chinese market [3]

面向家庭部门的财政扩张应该是当前逆周期调节的主要载体。不同于货币政策，财政政策可以通过政府 与家庭部门直接发生经济与交易行为（转移支付、税收等）而快速有效地作用于消费。把提振消费作为 第一重点任务，必然意味财政政策是逆周期调节的第一有效工具。具体而言，完善社会保障体系，尤其 是改善弱势群体的保障，促进中低收入群体增收减负，是结合民生与消费的有效抓手。综合来看，面向 家庭部门的财政扩张可以兼顾稳增长、扎实推进共同富裕以及应对地缘经济挑战，达到一举多得的效 果。 现阶段面向家庭部门的财政扩张，尤其改善社会保障机制，既促进当前消费需求，也促进未来的财政自 动稳定器功能，是兼顾逆周期和跨周期（调整结构）的有效手段。短期来看，面向家庭的财政扩张可能 带来一定的财政收支缺口，因而要辅之以融资端增加国债发行。长远来看，则需要推动财税体制改革， 比如增加具有累进属性的直接税有利于调节收入差距、增强财政的自动稳定器功能。党的二十届三中全 会《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》提出"健全直接税体系""规范经营 所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政策，实行劳动性所得统一征税""研究同新业态相适应的税收制 度"等，是 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with an increased fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies while introducing new measures to stimulate economic growth. Key areas of focus include increasing the fiscal deficit rate, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing local government financial capacity [7][9]. Summary by Sections 2024 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Characteristics - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 21,970.212 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase from 2023, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% [2]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% to 28,461.225 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 40,600 billion yuan, consistent with the budget [3]. Government Fund Budget - The national government fund budget revenue was 62,090.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% [4]. State-owned Capital Management Budget - The state-owned capital management budget revenue was 6,782.88 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 14.5%, while expenditure decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan [5]. Social Insurance Fund Budget - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.7 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with expenditures reaching 106,061.28 billion yuan, a 7% increase [6]. 2025 Fiscal Policy Directions - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit amounting to 56,600 billion yuan [10]. - The issuance of government bonds will be expanded, including 13,000 billion yuan in long-term special bonds and 5,000 billion yuan for capital replenishment of state-owned banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more targeted and effective fiscal policy to support domestic demand, modern industry development, and social welfare improvements [7][9]. 2025 Budget Overview - The national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21,985 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.1%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 4.4% to 29,700.5 billion yuan [10]. - The government fund budget revenue is anticipated to be 62,499.09 billion yuan, with a significant increase in expenditure by 23.1% [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the economy, with a focus on policy support and external demand as key drivers for growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall economic recovery is still reliant on policy measures and external demand, with internal dynamics such as consumer spending and private investment needing improvement [3][4]. - The production sector shows steady performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% year-on-year for January-February 2025, slightly lower than December 2024's 6.2% [8][10]. - Consumer spending is recovering, with retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up from 3.7% in December 2024 [17][21]. - Investment is showing marginal improvement, with fixed asset investment growth at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, compared to 3.2% for the entire previous year [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Production: Steady Performance - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 is 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [8][10]. - Export-oriented sectors like transportation equipment and automotive show the highest growth rates, while real estate-related sectors remain subdued due to slow downstream demand [10][12]. 2. Consumption: Bright Performance in Services - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, higher than December 2024's 3.7% [17][21]. - Service retail sales increased by 4.9%, although this is a decline from December's 6.2% [17][21]. - Online consumption shows a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in January-February 2025, compared to 1.5% in December 2024 [21][22]. 3. Investment: Marginal Improvement - Fixed asset investment growth is at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, an increase from 3.2% in the previous year [24][25]. - Real estate investment shows a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments grow at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively [25][26]. - The improvement in broad infrastructure investment is primarily driven by high growth in electricity and heat supply investments, which increased by 25.4% [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks outlined in the government work report following the 2025 National Two Sessions, focusing on economic growth, consumption potential, asset price stability, and market confidence restoration [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun emphasizes the need for China to maintain a medium-speed economic growth rate of at least 4% to surpass the high-income threshold, suggesting that the nominal growth rate should exceed the actual growth rate [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of consumption as a key driver of economic growth, noting that China's final consumption accounts for nearly 20 percentage points less of GDP compared to international levels [2]. - Liu Shijun proposes increasing urban and rural residents' pensions from 220 yuan per person per month to around 400 yuan in one to two years, aiming for 600 yuan in three years and 1,000 yuan in five years, which could activate over 1 trillion yuan in consumption potential [3]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments and Market Confidence - Wang Yiming points out that the government work report prioritizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, reflecting a shift in policy focus from investment to consumption [4][5]. - The report indicates that stabilizing asset prices, particularly housing prices, is crucial, with a need for clear responsibilities and effective policies to manage supply and demand [6]. - Liu Yuanchun notes that the policy framework for 2025 must be adaptable to uncertainties, with a focus on maintaining a strong decision-making capacity in response to external shocks and internal risks [8][9]. Group 3: Enhancing Business Vitality - Yang Ruilong identifies four key areas to stimulate the vitality of domestic business entities: clarifying property rights, allowing self-management and accountability, ensuring fair competition, and minimizing unnecessary administrative intervention [10][11]. - The article stresses the importance of protecting private enterprise rights and creating a competitive environment for private businesses, particularly in infrastructure and major research projects [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2]. Core Views - Short-term stabilization of coal prices is expected, with opportunities for investment in undervalued stocks [7][10]. - The coal market is showing signs of recovery due to supply tightening and increased demand from industrial sectors [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of value investing in leading companies within the coal sector, particularly those with integrated operations [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report highlights the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for key companies in the coal sector [15]. - It tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting fluctuations in production and sales figures [17]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - Coal prices are being monitored closely, with specific attention to both domestic and international price movements [11]. - The report indicates that the average price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight decrease, while demand has shown signs of recovery [7][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report provides insights into production levels and inventory status for both thermal and coking coal [11]. - It notes that the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is approximately 5.7 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease [10]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report discusses the consumption patterns of coal in downstream industries, particularly in power generation and steel production [11]. - It highlights the recovery in coal consumption as industrial operations ramp up during the "golden three silver four" period [7]. 5. Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report analyzes the performance of the coal sector, noting a 0.4% increase week-on-week [11]. - It provides a detailed performance overview of key coal companies, emphasizing their earnings forecasts and market positioning [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by over 20% within six months [65]. Core Insights - The government work report from the recent National People's Congress (NPC) clearly outlines economic targets and specifies a plan to issue special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks, which will enhance their capital base and risk resilience while increasing support for the real economy [6][15]. - The NPC's economic theme press conference highlighted future policy guidance, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy and potential adjustments in monetary policy, including possible interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19][20]. - The expansion of the AIC (Asset Investment Company) equity investment pilot program is expected to facilitate the diversification of financial services and support for small and medium-sized banks, enhancing their participation in the financial market [23][26]. Summary by Sections Economic Targets and Policy Guidance - The NPC's government work report sets GDP growth targets at around 5% for 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability and addressing risks in the financial sector [17]. - The fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with a focus on supporting state-owned banks and reducing local government debt risks [19][20]. AIC Equity Investment Pilot Expansion - The recent notification from the National Financial Supervision Administration expands the AIC equity investment pilot, allowing for broader participation from small and medium-sized banks and enhancing support for technology innovation and private enterprises [23][24]. - The pilot program aims to attract more social capital and improve operational efficiency, thereby supporting the development of a diversified financing system for technology enterprises [26]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices have shown positive weekly changes of +1.13%, +0.73%, +1.72%, and +5.81% respectively, indicating a favorable market environment [39]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached 20.33 billion yuan, reflecting active market engagement [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a more proactive macroeconomic policy as outlined in the Government Work Report, emphasizing the need for increased fiscal and monetary support to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand in the face of external uncertainties and domestic challenges [2][3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The Government Work Report reflects the continuation of the macroeconomic policy approach established in the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, which aims to enhance economic recovery and consumer confidence [2]. - The report highlights the need for counter-cyclical adjustments due to rising external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, particularly in consumption [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is introduced, with the deficit rate increased to around 4%, amounting to a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1 trillion yuan from the previous year [5][9]. - The total new government debt scale is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is adjusted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," signaling a clear macroeconomic policy direction to the public [5]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned, including 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, which is an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at investment construction and land acquisition [8][9]. Policy Implementation - Policies are to be implemented as early as possible to maximize their effectiveness, with a focus on addressing prominent issues and coordinating resources [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a cohesive macroeconomic policy approach, integrating various departments and focusing on key problems to achieve a synergistic effect [6].

会议期间，宣昌能会见了巴西央行行长加利波罗、阿根廷央行行长鲍希利、澳大利亚央行行长布洛克、 英格兰银行副行长布里登以及欧委会经济金融事务总司总司长韦尔维，就双边金融合作等议题交换了意 见。 此前，在2025年1月14日国务院新闻办公室举行"中国经济高质量发展成效"系列新闻发布会上，宣昌能 表示，未来一段时间，外部环境复杂性、严峻性和不确定性可能进一步上升，但中国的经济基础坚实。 按照中央"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"要求，人民银行今年将落实好适度宽松的货币政策。近年来， 稳健的货币政策更加突出强调有力、有效、精准、灵活等要求，对调控区间的把握偏向宽松一些，也会 根据年中经济运行情况持续不断加大逆周期调节力度，2019年底以来还持续降准降息，累积效应使得社 会融资环境处于较为宽松的状态。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌能于2025年2月2 6 - 2 7日出席了在南非开普敦举 行 的 二 十 国 集 团 （ G20 ） 财 长 和 央 行 行 长 会 议 。 在 会 议 期 间 ， 宣 昌 能 表 示，中国经济持续回升向好，中国人民银行在推动落实金融改革、促进跨 境支付发展等方面取得了务实成果。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌 ...

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1% in January, indicating a return to expansion[2]. - The production index for February was 52.5%, an increase from 49.8% in January, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity post-Spring Festival[2]. Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 52.5%, up from 49.9%, showing significant expansion, while medium-sized enterprises decreased slightly to 49.2% from 49.5%, and small enterprises fell to 46.3% from 46.5%[2][5]. - The recovery in manufacturing sentiment was uneven across different enterprise sizes, with large firms showing stronger growth compared to medium and small firms[4]. Demand and Orders - The new orders index increased to 51.1% in February from 49.2% in January, indicating a rise in market demand[2][5]. - New export orders index improved to 48.6% from 46.4%, while the import index rose to 49.5% from 48.1%, suggesting a potential increase in export activities[2][5]. Price Indices - The main raw materials purchase price index was 50.8%, up from 49.5%, while the factory price index was 48.5%, up from 47.4%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year in February[3]. Inventory and Employment - The raw materials inventory index fell to 47.0% from 47.7%, indicating cautiousness in future production expansion, while the finished goods inventory index rose to 48.3% from 46.5%[3][6]. - The manufacturing employment index increased slightly to 48.6% from 48.1%, suggesting a modest improvement in employment conditions within the sector[6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was stable at 50.4%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase to 52.7% from 49.3%[7][8]. - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.0% from 50.3%, reflecting a minor contraction in activities post-Spring Festival[7][8].