Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global political, business, and academic elites to explore development opportunities [1] - Hong Hao, managing partner of Lianhua Asset Management, expressed optimism about the arrival of a bull market, stating that China experiences an epic bull market every decade, which sparked lively discussions [3] - Hong Hao advised investors to integrate investing into their daily lives, emphasizing the importance of buying good companies regardless of market conditions, and highlighted that quality companies generate cash flow and dividends even in a closed market [3]

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让人们好奇他的更多看法。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 被问及对当前牛市是否将至还心怀疑虑的投资者有什么寄语时，洪灏笑称"总不能让别人赶紧买股票，这样说并不会让大家更安心"。他表示，建议投资者把 投资变成生活的一个部分，"无论是牛市还是熊市，我们都要坚持买好的公司，不要惧怕买进以后股票下跌"。 他进一步解释称，买好的公司，即便市场关闭、没有公开市场竞价模式可以把股票抛售，优质公司也会每年产生现金流、产生分红，产生盈利的增长，这样 投资者仍然能够从中获得回报。"相信如果投资者是这样的理念，心态会好很多。" 图片来源：凤凰网财经 ...

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 图片来源：凤凰网财经 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让更多人好奇他的判断何来。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰卫视、凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 洪灏在对话中表示，相信牛市到来最主要的三个原因是，此前预期过分悲观、模式由通缩进入再通胀，以及绝大部分人还是不相信（牛市将至），因此还有 大量的资金没有入场。他认为预期还没有完全被反映到价格端，绝大部分人对于此次的行情的看法都还停留在"将增长"，并不认为这是真正的牛市。 他指出，认为某一指数上涨20%就是牛市的观点是错误的，真正的牛市是"人们闭着眼睛都能赚钱，随便买都能赚回来，鸡犬升天"。洪灏表示，强势板块仍 在延续势头，其他板块开始跟涨，"能够真正感受到（牛市真的来了）"。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a decrease in market trading activity ahead of the National Day holiday, suggesting a shift towards defensive strategies as risk appetite declines [2][5][6] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear catalysts, leading to expectations of market fluctuations rather than significant upward breakthroughs in the short term [2][6] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in the A-share market in the fourth quarter, supported by improved liquidity from household savings entering the market and foreign capital inflows due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][6][11] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-yield sectors such as coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation during market corrections [2][11] - The report highlights sectors experiencing stagnation, particularly in technology, such as AI applications, consumer electronics, humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, and Hang Seng Technology [2][11] - The "anti-involution" direction is emphasized, with potential in steel, building materials, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries, as well as sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" like clean energy and environmental protection [2][11][12] Group 3 - The report notes significant overseas uncertainties, including US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market sentiment [5][11] - It also points out the risk of a "style drift" among institutions as they adjust their holdings at the end of the quarter, potentially leading to a short-term loosening of tech sector concentration [5][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading volumes, as a significant drop could indicate reduced liquidity support for previously concentrated tech sectors [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant increases in various indices over the past year, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks with technology attributes [3]. Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector, especially the liquor segment represented by Kweichow Moutai, has undergone over four years of adjustment [4]. - The liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations that the bottom is near [5]. - Other companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Haitian Flavoring and Food, Shuanghui Development, Yili Industrial, Qingdao Beer, Anjixin Food, and COFCO, have not yet capitalized on the bull market [6]. - Despite the lack of stock price increases, many companies in this sector have seen profit growth over the years [7]. Valuation Insights - The stagnation in stock prices is attributed to the overextension of valuations and expectations during the bull market from 2018 to 2021 [8]. - After three to four years of valuation digestion, the food and beverage industry is currently considered undervalued from a price-to-earnings (PE) perspective [9]. - Historical data shows that the current price levels are situated between one and two times below the average PE ratio, similar to the situation in 2018 [10]. Economic Context - As of September 2023, real GDP has begun to exceed nominal GDP, indicating a state of deflation [11]. - Historical instances of similar economic conditions occurred during the Asian financial crisis in 1998-2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 [13]. - There is a strong belief that the economy will gradually improve, leading the food and beverage industry to return to reasonable valuation levels [13]. Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to participate in the current bull market, albeit with a delay [13]. - This delay presents investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of patience in waiting for the right moment to invest and for prices to rise [14].

Core Insights - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are lagging behind gold and stocks in reaching new highs, raising doubts about whether the bull market has ended [2][3] - A recent study by CryptoQuant identifies four key reasons for the weakness in the cryptocurrency market: Federal Reserve rate cuts, stablecoin supply, leveraged investors, and historical patterns [3] - The current liquidity tightness has left Bitcoin in a stalemate, with bulls not yet challenging historical highs, while gold and U.S. stock markets continue to set new records [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a historical pattern where institutional funds initially flow into high liquidity assets like stocks and gold during early rate cut phases by the Federal Reserve [3] - The total supply of stablecoins reached a new high of $308 billion this month, but the inflow to exchanges is lower than outflow, indicating a tendency among traders to hedge or take profits [6] - Liquidity is primarily distributed outside exchanges, including cross-chain transfers and private markets, rather than being actively used to purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum [7] Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The current market structure for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows similarities to a year ago, where price increases followed by liquidity not fully entering the cryptocurrency market led to corrections [5] - Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically lags behind traditional assets, often rising 12% in 30 days and 35% in 90 days after stocks reach new highs [9] - The upcoming expiration of $22.6 billion in options may significantly impact future price movements in the cryptocurrency market [13]

#报告 #A股 高盛客户问答：如何对待中国股票牛市？ https://t.co/j7g7PICfs9None (@None):None ...

Market Overview - The recent strong rebound in A-shares is driven by policy support and a return of market confidence, rather than substantial improvements in the fundamentals [1][3] - On September 24, A-shares saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.28%, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high, and the STAR 50 Index increasing by 3.49% [1][2] - The total trading volume on September 24 reached 2.33 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity and investor sentiment [1][2] Investment Trends - UBS noted a trend of residents reallocating funds from stable assets like bonds and money market funds to the stock market, indicating a shift in wealth distribution [1][4] - The increase in margin trading balances and new margin accounts suggests that leveraged funds are playing a crucial role in the current market rally [2][4][5] Policy Expectations - There is anticipation for new growth policies, with potential adjustments in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [6][7] - Specific policy directions may include early use of local government debt quotas for infrastructure spending, establishment of new policy financial tools, and expansion of consumer subsidies [7] Market Risks - Despite the positive market indicators, there are structural concerns as the current rally is primarily driven by valuation expansion rather than widespread corporate profit improvements [3][4] - The sustainability of the bull market is questioned, as long-term growth requires fundamental economic improvements and not just confidence and liquidity [3][6]

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席论坛，并在"做多中国：十年大牛市？"环节发表主旨演讲。他表示，"我相信，牛市真的来了。" "其实，今年7月初，在这波上涨之前，我们就判断牛市来了。虽然，当时我们的看法并没有任何基本面的支持，但并不妨碍中国市场走强。因为，做投资久 了的人都知道，市场领先于实体经济。"洪灏继续说道。 不过洪灏也提醒，市场也有错的时候。"俗话讲，在未来3次经济危机里，股票市场预测了5次。所以，它有时候是对的，有时候是错的。但是从交易的角度 来看，我们并不在乎预测是对还是错，只在乎在未来一段时间窗口里，是否能看到一个牛市，以及在牛市中是否能赚钱。" 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏 ...

Market Overview - The bull market has lasted for a year, with major indices showing significant gains: the North Exchange 50 Index increased by 158%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 118%, and the ChiNext Index gained 103.49% [1] - Over 1,400 stocks in the A-share market have doubled in price, representing more than 26% of the 5,324 stocks listed, with notable sectors including electronics, machinery, power equipment, computers, and automobiles [1] Fund Performance - A total of 1,276 fund products have doubled in value, with the top 10 performing funds all being actively managed, indicating the strength of fund managers [2] - The best-performing fund, Debon Xinxing Value, achieved a return of 279.93%, with themes including CPO (4 funds), North Exchange (3 funds), and robotics (3 funds) [2][3] Underperforming Funds - Among over 20,000 funds, only 216 reported negative returns, with the worst performer being Dongcai Value Qihang C, which declined by 10.78% [4] - Notably, seven of the worst-performing funds belong to GF Fund, all managed by the same manager, Wang Mingxu [5] Investment Insights - The analysis suggests that during a bull market, holding onto key investments without frequent trading is a wise strategy, as significant profits are made through holding rather than trading [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on market conditions rather than personal returns when making decisions [8] - Common investment pitfalls include selling too early or buying into losing positions, emphasizing the need for a well-defined strategy [8] - Maintaining a consistent presence in the market allows investors to better navigate fluctuations and refine their trading systems [8]