日本政府周一公布的数据显示，日本5月实际薪资创下近两年来最快下滑速度，因持续的通胀升速继续 快于工资增速，并阻碍日本的经济增长。 金价连续两个月震荡调整收取高位见顶形态，本月走势也偏向倒垂或回落，附图指标多头信号连续减 弱，将会继续增强见顶预期，暗示后市有跌至3000美元或2600美元附近的风险。不过，目前走势仍运行 在5月均线上方，在跌破此支撑之前，暂继续维持牛市看涨趋势不变； 尽管上周一份劳工组织报告显示，日本工会工人平均薪资创下34年来的最大升幅，但在美国贸易关税的 不确定性下，整体薪资数据疲软，引发人们对日本经济复苏的担忧。 今日周一（7月7日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3306.29美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3313.91 美元/盎司，下跌0.63%，最高触及3342.43美元/盎司，最低下探3306.29美元/盎司，成交量.目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 根据日本厚生劳动省的数据，经通胀调整后，5月实质薪资较上年同期下降了2.9%，这是自20个月以来 的最大降幅，而4月经修正后的数据为下降2.0%。实质薪资连续第五个月出现下降趋势。作为家庭购买 力的关键决定因素，实质薪资的持续下降 ...

Economic Recovery and Policy Direction - The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with strong performance in retail sales and exports [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 outlined comprehensive macroeconomic policies focusing on investment, consumption, and exports, emphasizing a balanced and holistic approach [2] - The policies aim to enhance quality and ensure reasonable economic growth, integrating quality improvement with growth targets [3] State-Owned Enterprises and Market Mechanisms - The 20th Central Committee's third plenary session emphasized the need for state-owned enterprise reform, focusing on strategic industries and public services [4] - A key reform includes improving the bankruptcy mechanism to facilitate market exit, addressing issues of overcapacity and unhealthy competition [4] Private Sector and Competition - The government aims to address fairness in competition for the private sector, emphasizing equal access and protection [5] - Issues such as delayed payments and unfair enforcement practices are highlighted as significant challenges for private enterprises [5] - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition is noted, where companies engage in price-cutting, leading to reduced profits and investment willingness [5] International Trade and Globalization - China's rapid industrial upgrade has led to increased direct competition with developed countries, shifting from a complementary trade model to one of competition [6] - Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China's trade diversification strategy has shown success, maintaining stable growth in global trade [7] - Global trade has rebounded, reaching a historical high of 61.24% of global GDP, indicating a strong trend towards globalization [7][8] Digital Economy and Future Growth - The digital economy is identified as a significant opportunity for growth, with the potential for large-scale market advantages [9] - The success of digital products in international markets demonstrates the global potential of China's digital economy [8][9] - The overall economic landscape presents both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on coordinated policies to support sustainable growth [9]

高盛分析师周四在报告中指出，尽管特朗普的新政策可能正在颠覆全球贸易秩序，但迄今尚未对经济造 成严重冲击。"几乎没有迹象表明政策不确定性正在损害经济活动，"高盛团队在报告中写道。 在高盛报告发布之际，美国6月就业数据好于预期：经济新增14.7万个岗位，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。 投资者情绪乐观，标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高。 尽管分析师此前预期特朗普第二任期将拖累经济，但数据呈现出截然不同的图景：自2024年末以来，主 要发达及新兴市场的投资、工厂招聘、消费支出及整体经济活动均保持韧性。 可以肯定的是，以历史标准衡量，贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高，高盛的不确定性指数在特朗普当选后 飙升。但近几个月来，随着贸易协议谈判推进，这种不确定性有所缓解。 事实上，对全球二季度及全年经济增长的预测已从先前的悲观预期中回升。分析师指出，在多数经济体 中，贸易相关投资占GDP比重较小，因此影响"小到难以察觉"。新工厂投资虽有下滑（尤其是在新兴市 场），但这在主要经济体中仅占GDP的0.2-0.3个百分点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 报告强调，政策不确定性通常在金融环境收紧时影响最大，但今年以来全球流动性实际 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that China's economic growth has the potential to elevate the living standards of its 1.4 billion citizens to levels comparable to those in developed countries like the United States, driven by market economy reforms and increasing GDP [1][4][14] - Since the introduction of market economy reforms in the 1980s, over 800 million people have escaped poverty, and the middle class has expanded to approximately 400 million [2][4] - China's per capita GDP has risen from under $200 to $13,400 today, with projections suggesting it could reach $20,000 by 2035, marking a significant economic transformation [4][5][19] Group 2 - Economic growth is expected to continue at an annual rate of 4%-5%, with optimistic scenarios suggesting per capita GDP could reach $21,200 by 2028 if the currency appreciates and economic growth accelerates [5][6] - The current economic landscape shows that while growth has slowed, there are still opportunities for improvement, particularly in the real estate sector, which is viewed as a potential driver for economic advancement [7][10][11] - The middle class is identified as the primary engine of consumption, with a need for income growth to stimulate further economic activity and support the transition to a developed economy [15][19] Group 3 - The definition of the middle class in China differs significantly from that in the U.S., with the Chinese middle-income group having a much lower income threshold, which highlights the potential for growth in consumer spending [17][18] - The current middle-income group in China is approximately 400 million people, with an average annual income of 30,598 yuan, which is significantly lower than the U.S. middle-class income range [18][19] - Stimulating consumption is deemed essential for achieving developed nation status, as increased consumer spending leads to higher corporate earnings, job creation, and ultimately, wage growth [19]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：法国的经济增长太慢了。 ...

Group 1 - German factory orders have declined for the first time in four months, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% in May, which is weaker than all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey [1] - Year-on-year, orders still show a growth of 5.3%, indicating that the long-term demand fundamentals have not completely deteriorated [1] - The manufacturing sector in Germany is closely monitoring the progress of trade negotiations between Europe and the U.S., with less than a week remaining before the deadline for an agreement [3] Group 2 - Major companies like Continental and Merck have lowered their earnings expectations due to trade concerns, while others like ZF and Bosch have taken measures such as layoffs and factory closures due to weak demand [3] - Domestic investment goods orders saw a significant month-on-month decline of 12.7%, while overall domestic factory demand decreased by 7.8%, contrasting with a 2.9% increase in foreign orders, reflecting structural differentiation in internal and external demand [3] - The German Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that despite the setback in industrial demand in May, the basic trend still shows an upward trajectory, although order fluctuations may continue due to high trade and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the improvement in manufacturing growth in June suggests a reasonable annualized growth rate of approximately 1.5% for the economy in the second quarter, showing momentum since the stagnation in April [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's claims about the success of his administration's economic policies and legislative achievements, particularly emphasizing the "big and beautiful" plan [1] - It highlights the potential impact of the upcoming ADP employment data on market sentiment and Trump's likely reaction, which may involve blaming the Federal Reserve for any negative economic indicators [2] - The article notes that while the bond market is slowly aligning with Trump's views on interest rates, there is still no significant panic or deep concern reflected in current bond yields [2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the high interest rates are not solely the fault of the Federal Reserve but also due to the additional debt incurred by Trump and Congressional Republicans, which adds to the national debt burden [3] - Trump's public relations strategy has been effective in shifting blame for economic downturns to the Federal Reserve, despite the economy not showing signs of collapse yet [3] - The article warns that if the economy falters, Trump's exaggerated claims may backfire, leading to increased pressure on the dollar and bond markets, potentially resulting in higher long-term bond yields [3]

欧洲央行会议纪要：如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级，工作人员预计经济增长和通胀将低于其基准预测。 ...