Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The CBOT currently has no weather premium, and the Sino-US trade policy has not eased, putting pressure on US soybeans, but the downside space is expected to be limited. Under the current Sino-US policy, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and with the expected increase in import costs, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the results of the August USDA supply and demand report and the situation of domestic Argentine soybean meal imports [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - This week, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the producing areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure drop in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory; the purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far month under the current Sino-US trade policy [7] Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to be maintained, supporting the demand for feed. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far-month supply of pigs. The cost-effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick-up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the amount of protein used. The far-month trading volume of soybean meal increased this week [8] Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the good rate of US soybeans is relatively good, and the phased weather risk is limited. The upward driving force of CBOT soybeans is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain an operating range of 1000 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the expected arrival and crushing of imported soybeans remain at a high level, the supply of soybean meal continues to recover, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. The basis of soybean meal spot is expected to be weak. From the cost side, the bottom space of CBOT soybeans is limited, and the import cost supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - In the short - term, affected by the decline in market sentiment and fundamental pressure, the futures market is expected to oscillate and correct. In the medium - to long - term, as the Sino - US relationship is undetermined, there are still concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and coupled with the seasonal recovery of downstream demand, the soybean meal futures market is expected to have an opportunity to strengthen. [3] 2.2. Rapeseed Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, and the phased international rapeseed price is supported. In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center of rapeseed meal. Domestically, the near - month inventory is still relatively sufficient, and the far - month supply is expected to gradually tighten. The downstream aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, but the supply of soybeans arriving in the next two months is loose, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitute consumption of rapeseed meal. The demand boost is expected to be limited. [3] - Overall, due to limited policy and fundamental support, the price of rapeseed meal is expected to adjust weakly following soybean meal. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Data - DCE soybean meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 3059.00 this week, down 19 from last week, a decrease of 0.62%; the 05 contract closed at 2759.00, up 15 from last week, an increase of 0.55%; the 09 contract closed at 3021.00, down 35 from last week, a decrease of 1.15%. [12] - CZCE rapeseed meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 2405.00 this week, up 11 from last week, an increase of 0.46%; the 05 contract closed at 2373.00, up 21 from last week, an increase of 0.89%; the 09 contract closed at 2675.00, down 47 from last week, a decrease of 1.73%. [12] 3.2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The excellent - good rate of US soybean production areas decreased slightly, and CBOT soybeans mainly oscillated. The US has reached trade agreements with Indonesia and Japan recently, and the market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations at the end of July. [16][17] - As of July 20, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. As of the same week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 20%. [17] - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.20 US dollars per bushel, a week - on - week decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.91%. [18] - As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. [17] - As of July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 39.97 tons. [18] 3.3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The short - term Brazilian soybean premium continued to be strong, and the procurement for shipments after October was limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US trade policy changes. [29] - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 70%. In Argentina, the soybean export tariff was restored in July, and farmers' sales enthusiasm declined. [30] - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons, and soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons. [30] 3.4. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybeans was 286,869, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybean meal was 179,629. [55][57] 3.5. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Canada raised the output of old crops, and the output of new crops decreased slightly. The EU's yield per unit area is expected to be good. [59] - In the July USDA report, the global rapeseed output in the 2024/25 season was slightly increased by 165,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 2.31 million tons year - on - year to 9.09 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 10.39%. [60] - As of July 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 151.12% week - on - week to 202,400 tons. As of the same date, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons. [61] 3.6. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The recent arrival and crushing of domestic soybeans remain at a relatively high level, the supply pattern of soybean meal continues to be loose, and the spot basis is expected to run weakly. [71] - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6544 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons, an increase of 10.35%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 889,000 tons, an increase of 1.83%. [73] - As of July 18, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 15.72%. [91] - As of July 18, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons, a decrease of 2.32%; the soybean meal inventory was 998,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons, an increase of 12.66%. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. [103] - As of the week of July 23, the national soybean meal trading volume was 728,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,300 tons; the total提货 volume was 936,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons. [106]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate an increase in market expectations for the trajectory of the federal funds rate over the next year [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve staff noted a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions and an improvement in global economic growth prospects [1] - Investor risk sentiment has heightened, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1] - The military conflict between Israel and Iran has had limited impact outside the energy markets [1] Group 2 - Market-implied federal funds rate expectations have risen during the intermeeting period [1]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to weigh on the basis and near - month futures prices. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of destocking for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contracts is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall, and the overall downside space of the futures prices is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On July 7th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 3 with a change of 7, in Tianjin it was - 57 with a change of - 3, in Rizhao it was - 107, in Zhangjiagang it was - 137 with a change of - 3, in Dongguan it was - 117 with a change of 17, in Zhanjiang it was - 67 with a change of 17, and in Fangcheng it was - 87 with a change of 17. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 79 with a change of 8 [4]. - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, along with their historical trends and current values. For example, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 358, and the futures spread of the main contracts was 320 [5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1747, the soybean CNF premium, and the import soybean futures gross profit and crushing profit are provided. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 86%, lower than the same period last year, and short - term temperature and rainfall show no significant abnormalities [5]. - Chinese port soybean inventories and major domestic oil mill soybean inventories have increased to high levels. The major domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories are accelerating the accumulation, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are rising [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The May customs soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at high levels, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. - Demand: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The soybean meal trading volume fluctuates [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Policy is a crucial factor affecting soybeans this year. With Brazil's soybean harvest, the domestic supply is abundant before the new US soybean season, and soybean meal prices are expected to remain weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure, and their prices may decline. Demand for feed is expected to increase in the fourth - quarter. The international soybean supply is loose, and future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [5][65] - **Corn**: The domestic corn supply is tight this year due to reduced production and imports. The market is affected by policies, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season corn production may be affected by disasters, and prices may weaken when new corn hits the market [7][106] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H1 Soybean Meal Market Review - **Price Review**: International and domestic soybean meal prices fluctuated widely in H1 2025, influenced by supply, trade policies, and geopolitics. US soybeans rose from 947 cents/bu to 1075 cents/bu in Q1 and then fell to 970 cents/bu in early April, later rising to around 1050 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal prices rose from 2616 yuan/ton to 3025 yuan/ton in February - March and reached a high of 3168 yuan/ton in early April, then declined [14][15][19] US Soybean Balance Sheet - **New - season Planting**: In 2025, the US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, a 4.2% year - on - year decrease due to last season's losses [21] - **Yield and Production**: The old - season US soybeans continued to accumulate inventory in 2024 - 25. New - season planting and early growth were smooth, with a 66% good - to - excellent rate as of June 29. Future weather and policies need attention [23][24] South American Soybean Balance Sheet - **Brazil**: USDA expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 175 million tons. This year's production was a record high, and the ending inventory increased. The weather is currently normal, but there is a risk of La Nina after October [31][33][36] - **Argentina**: The 2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons, a historical average. The ending inventory slightly increased [38] Canadian Rapeseed Balance Sheet - The new - season Canadian rapeseed planting area decreased slightly, but the yield is expected to be high, and the ending inventory may reach 1.6 million tons. Export is uncertain, affected by China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations [43] Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Sino - US Trade**: Trade friction resumed this year. China's soybean imports mainly come from Brazil. If the 90 - day negotiation fails, it will affect domestic soybean supply after October and US soybean exports [46] - **China - Canada Trade**: Tariffs mainly affect Canadian rapeseed meal prices. Trade friction may change the international rapeseed trade flow [48][49] - **Imports and Inventory**: In May 2025, China imported 13.918 million tons of soybeans. As of June 30, soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons [50] - **Downstream Demand**: Since H2 2024, the pig industry's capacity has slowly recovered. Feed production increased by 10.6% in the first five months of this year, and soybean meal consumption increased by about 5% [58][62] Meal Market Outlook - The policy is crucial. Before the new US soybean season, the domestic supply is loose, and soybean meal prices will be weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure. Future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [65] 2024 Corn Market Review - **Price Review**: Corn prices oscillated and rose in H1 2025, from 2209 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2420 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 9.1% [66][70] International Corn Supply and Demand - **US**: In 2025/2026, the US corn planting area increased to 95.2 million acres. The total supply is expected to be 17.21 billion bushels. The new - season corn growth is good, but exports are affected by Sino - US trade relations [76] - **Brazil**: The new - season Brazilian corn planting area increased slightly. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 131 million tons [80] Domestic Corn Supply and Demand - **New - season Corn**: The current season's corn sales have ended, and the new - season corn is growing. Heilongjiang may be affected by low temperature and hail, and the impact on production needs further attention [83] - **Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn. From January to May, the cumulative import was 628,900 tons, a significant decrease [86] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the northern port inventory was about 2.724 million tons, and the southern feed grain inventory was about 1.889 million tons [91] - **Demand**: In June, the corn starch industry's operating rate was 51.93%. From January to July 3, starch, alcohol, and amino acid processing enterprises' corn consumption changed differently. Feed production increased in the first five months [95][102] Corn Market Outlook - Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season production may be affected, and prices may weaken when new corn is on the market. Attention should be paid to policy changes and new - season production [106]

Market Overview - In May, lead prices initially rose but later faced downward pressure due to increased lead ingot inventories during the "May Day" holiday, followed by a rebound due to improved US-China trade policies [1] - The lead market is currently experiencing a weak oscillation trend as the domestic lead-acid battery market enters a consumption off-season, despite some macroeconomic positive sentiments being released [1] Supply Dynamics - Environmental inspections have delayed the resumption of some recycled lead smelting plants, leading to a strengthening of lead prices in early June [1] - In the first quarter, overseas lead concentrate production decreased by over 20,000 metal tons due to adverse weather and declining ore grades, but supply is expected to recover as weather improves and new mines come online [2] Domestic Mining and Smelting - Domestic mining profits remain reasonable, with northern mines resuming seasonal production, resulting in the highest operating rates in nearly three years [3] - The focus of smelting plants has shifted towards by-product profits, which may limit the increase in primary lead production despite stable lead concentrate supply [3] Recycled Lead Production - In the second quarter, demand for waste batteries is typically low, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of waste batteries and a corresponding decrease in recycled lead production [4] - Some recycled lead smelting plants are planning to resume production in early June, but the overall increase in recycled lead output is expected to be limited due to tight raw material supplies [4] Downstream Demand - The second quarter marks the beginning of the replacement off-season for lead-acid batteries, with inventory levels reaching the highest since 2017, up 27.63% compared to the five-year average [5] - Despite high growth rates in terminal sales data, domestic lead-acid battery market demand is unlikely to show significant improvement due to shorter stocking cycles and increased penetration of lithium batteries [5][6] Price Outlook - Overall, while recycled lead supply is slightly recovering and primary lead production remains stable, weak downstream demand is expected to limit upward price movements, leading to a potential shift towards a weak oscillation trend in lead prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overall, with no significant abnormalities in the weather in US soybean - producing areas and a slight decline in Brazilian premiums, the decline is expected to be limited under the unchanged Sino - US trade policy. Under the current Sino - US policy, there is a de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter, which supports the center of the soybean meal futures price to rise. The domestic demand improvement supports the soybean meal, which is currently accumulating inventory at a slow pace but is expected to accelerate later. With the progress of purchasing ships, the expected increase of M09 is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. The planting progress of US soybeans is relatively fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for the early growth of soybeans [3]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to gradually increase before September, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [3]. Inventory - As of last week, the domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal is also accumulating inventory, but the current inventory is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of the crushing rate, it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June [3]. Data - The report provides data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot basis, spread data (such as M9 - RM9), CNF premium of imported soybeans, exchange rate of US dollars to RMB, inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean and soybean meal, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and the crushing volume and startup rate of national major oil mills [1][2].

Group 1: Rapeseed Oil - Spot price: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan is 9300 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [2] - Reference view: The Rapeseed Oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot price: The spot prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2840 yuan/ton, 2920 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively [3] - Market analysis: The US tariff policy is changeable. Sino - US leaders' phone call boosts market confidence. US soybean planting is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export period. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [3] - Reference view: Currently dominated by sentiment, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot price: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2206 yuan/ton and 2413 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2270 - 2300 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The weather in the US corn - producing areas is good. The domestic corn market is in the transition period, with tight supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field. Downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the new wheat listing and weather changes [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot price: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78740 - 79010, with a rise of 0, and a premium of 20 - 150. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns and reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Global tariff confrontation continues. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Raw material problems persist, and domestic copper inventory is falling [5] - Reference view: Copper prices may test the bubble node again. Wait for weak signals [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 60800 yuan/ton and 59150 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: The raw material end shows signs of stabilization. Supply is stable but the structure is adjusting. Demand is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot price: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3090. Tangshan's operating rate is 83.56%. Social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is dynamically adjusted, and inventory is low. The market is dominated by macro - policy expectations in the short term, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Steel is in the process of valuation repair. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot price: The ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shanxi Lvliang is 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (a decline of 2.73%). The flat - price of coke in Rizhao Port is 1410 yuan/ton, unchanged. Steel mill coke inventory is at a 5 - month low but up 18% year - on - year [7] - Market analysis: Some coal mines in Shanxi reduce production due to environmental protection, but imported coal remains high. Coking plant capacity utilization rate decreases, and the loss per ton of coke expands. Iron - water production decreases slightly, and steel mill inventory pressure eases [7][8] - Reference view: The main coking coal and coke contracts may fluctuate in the near term. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [7][8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts index of iron ore is 95.65. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 728, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 732. The closing price of the main iron ore contract is 707, down 0.71% from the previous trading day [9] - Market analysis: Global iron ore shipments increase. Domestic demand is under seasonal pressure. Port inventory is at a high level, suppressing prices. The main contract is in a sideways consolidation phase [9] - Reference view: The Iron Ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory reduction speed and steel mill resumption of production. In the long term, prices may be further pressured [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns. OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts. US trade wars and geopolitical issues increase supply uncertainty. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 65 - dollar/barrel level in the short term. In the long term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside of crude oil is limited [10] Group 10: Rubber - Spot price: The prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13650 yuan/ton, 19800 yuan/ton, 15000 yuan/ton, and 13850 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of raw materials in Hat Yai are as follows: RSS3 is 65.9 baht/kg, latex is 56 baht/kg, cup lump is 44.9 baht/kg, and raw rubber is 62.26 baht/kg [11] - Market analysis: The US trade war policy is changeable. The supply of rubber is loose globally, and downstream tire operating rates decline. After the negative factors are realized, there is an expectation of a weak rebound [11][12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. Supply exceeds demand, but a weak rebound pattern may start in the short term [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot price: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the two is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increases. Downstream demand shows no obvious improvement. Social inventory decreases [13] - Reference view: The fundamentals remain weak, and futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1364.63 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1375 yuan/ton, 1400 yuan/ton, and 1350 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes [14] - Market analysis: The overall operating rate of soda ash increases, and production rises. Factory inventory slightly increases, and social inventory decreases. Downstream demand is average [14] - Reference view: The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom - range in the short term [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][7] Core View - The soybean meal price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to macro - policy impacts, despite weak downstream demand and slow inventory clearance in domestic oil mills. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans. The corn price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April, affected by factors such as high port inventories, high inventory in deep - processing enterprises, and sufficient substitute supply [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2934 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+1.56%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+1.67%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Exports: Anec raised the May export forecast of Brazilian soybeans to 14.52 million tons and Brazilian soybean meal to 236,000 tons. As of May 18, the EU's 24/25 - year - to - date imports of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed were all higher than the same period last year [2] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2659 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4][5] - Sowing Progress: As of May 18, the US corn sowing progress was 78%, ahead of the historical average, and the emergence rate was 50% [5] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - The monthly intended planting area report has some impact on US soybean prices, but the market focuses more on end - of - month policies. The US tariff policy and China's counter - measures have escalated Sino - US trade tensions, which will affect Sino - US soybean trade. Although Brazil's soybean harvest is good this year, the increasing import demand from other countries for Brazilian soybeans has strengthened the Brazilian premium, raising domestic import costs and supporting the domestic soybean meal price [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: The sale of on - the - ground grain has basically ended this month, and the remaining corn is mainly in the hands of traders. High inventories at north - south ports suppress the corn price. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have relatively high inventories, and feed enterprises mainly sign long - term contracts, with stable demand. - Policy: The tariff policy has a positive but limited impact on the market sentiment. The small price difference with wheat and the upcoming large - scale wheat harvest in June pose challenges to the corn price [6] Strategy - For soybean meal: Neutral - For corn: Neutral, with the corn price expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April [3][7]