Core Viewpoint - China continues to dominate in various global technology and engineering sectors, showcasing its advancements in multiple fields, including artificial intelligence, advanced materials, defense, space, robotics, transportation, energy, environment, biotechnology, and vaccines [1]. Group 1: Technological Leadership - China leads in 7 out of 8 categories of artificial intelligence, all 13 categories of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies, all 7 categories of defense, space, robotics, and transportation, 9 out of 10 categories in energy and environment, and 5 out of 9 categories in biotechnology, genetics, and vaccines [1]. - The recent China International High-tech Achievements Fair in Shenzhen highlighted China's technological prowess, featuring a vast exhibition area of 400,000 square meters, showcasing humanoid robots and flying cars [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Policy - China has made significant investments in national industrial policies, focusing on new infrastructure projects such as 5G networks, smart cities, and industrial digital transformation [2]. - The country has shifted from a traditional innovation model to a new approach where the government coordinates interactions among academia, enterprises, and financial institutions towards unified technological goals [2]. - The government identifies technological objectives, analyzes necessary breakthroughs, and provides funding for both basic and applied research to facilitate technology transfer to enterprises, aiding in product development and commercialization [2].

Core Viewpoint - China has achieved a dominant position in defining modern technologies, surpassing other regions in various fields such as artificial intelligence, defense, aerospace, energy, and biotechnology [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute indicates that China leads in 66 out of 74 key technologies, while the U.S. maintains an advantage in only 8 [1]. - In the AI sector, China is ahead in 7 out of 8 technologies; in advanced materials and manufacturing, it leads in all 13 technologies; and in defense, aerospace, robotics, and transportation, it ranks first in all 7 technologies [1]. - In the energy and environment sector, China leads in 9 out of 10 technologies, and in biotechnology, genetics, and vaccines, it is ahead in 5 out of 9 technologies [1]. Group 2: Recent Technological Achievements - Recent months have seen China showcase remarkable technological feats, including a bionic robot the size of a mosquito for battlefield reconnaissance and the completion of the world's highest bridge [2]. - The DeepSeek team introduced a mathematical reasoning model, DeepSeekMath-V2, which has demonstrated significant capabilities in theorem proving, marking a milestone in AI development [2]. Group 3: Investment and Policy - China's technological achievements are closely linked to substantial investments in strategic emerging industries, amounting to 8.6 trillion yuan since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. - Analysts highlight the difference in governance models, with China being described as an "engineering state" focused on practical solutions, while the U.S. is characterized as a "lawyerly society" that often resorts to legal measures [6][7]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Australia's recent AI strategy, which includes a budget of 30 million AUD (approximately 140 million yuan) for AI safety research, is seen as significantly less robust compared to China's comprehensive industrial policies [7]. - The speed of China's technological acceleration is noted as unprecedented compared to other regions, with experts suggesting that the West may struggle to catch up [8].

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《产业政策+2035主线，"十五五"最值得关注的产业主攻方向》 进入"十五五"前夜，全球制造业格局和科技创新主导权正经历新一轮重塑。美国、欧盟等发达经济体的产业政策再度 抬头，核心在于通过补贴、关税、金融工具等强化本土高端制造与新兴技术竞争力。 国内"十五五"规划建议已将"坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合"确立为未来五年最重要的经济原则，强调用产业政策这 个"硬工具"来破解产业链安全、创新突破、区域协同等现实难题。新能源汽车作为产业政策的成功范本，产量在2024 年达到1316.8万辆，较2020年增加8倍，新车销量连续十年全球第一，中国已成为全球最大汽车出口国，直接展示了政 策推动带来的行业爆发式增长。 一、产业政策基本框架 "产业政策"源自1970年代日本通产省的理论体系，实际包括狭义的"资源配置再分配"政策和广义的"影响产业竞争 力"的一切政策措施。无论哪种模式，政策本质都是在政府与市场之间寻找平衡。一方面，选择性政策通过财政补贴、 税收减免、准入限制等工具，扶持特定行业或企业崛起，比如中国新能源汽车产业链的政策加持。另一方面，功能性 政策注重完善市场规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU is planning an ambitious industrial policy that sets a local content standard of up to 70% for key products like automobiles, aiming to reduce external dependencies, but this has sparked internal disagreements due to concerns over increased costs and competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Local Content Standards - The proposed "Industrial Accelerator Law" is expected to be officially announced on December 10, with incentives such as government subsidies tied to local content standards for products like electric vehicle batteries [2]. - Some EU officials express concerns that high local content requirements could lead to increased costs for manufacturers, potentially exceeding 10 billion euros annually [2][3]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Protection - Measures aimed at promoting "European manufacturing" are intended to prevent significant job losses in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive industry, which is facing challenges due to uneven transitions to electric vehicles [3]. - The French government is advocating for moderate protection of the automotive sector, acknowledging the vulnerability of component suppliers to foreign competition [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Recycling Initiatives - The EU is also focusing on securing the supply of critical raw materials by limiting the export of rare earth and recyclable battery waste starting in 2026, as part of the REsourceEU plan [5]. - The EU aims to meet over 65% of its critical raw material needs independently, with projections indicating that recycling efforts could support the production of 200,000 electric vehicle battery packs annually [5]. Group 4: Industry Competitiveness - Factors contributing to the decline in European industrial competitiveness include rising operational costs due to energy supply decoupling from Russia and diminishing advantages in labor costs and technology [4]. - Industry experts suggest that Europe should adopt a more open and collaborative approach to economic issues, avoiding the politicization of trade and security matters [6].

产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 "十五五"系列研究报告 产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 2025 证 12 证 04 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 8096 证zhangjun _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 研究助理：刘小逸 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证证证证证证证证证证证证证·证证 证证证证证证证证证证 ...

Group 1 - Vanke is perceived as a good company with a commendable founder, Wang Shi, but is currently struggling due to economic pressures and a lack of government support for its debt issues [2][3] - The company's debt has ballooned to nearly 900 billion, and the financial burden of resolving this debt could potentially collapse other high-quality state-owned enterprises [3] - The real estate crisis is likened to a festering sore that triggers various economic and social problems, indicating a systemic risk that could affect multiple stakeholders, including suppliers, workers, and homebuyers [3][4] Group 2 - Economists and financial experts are proposing various strategies to address the economic challenges, but fundamentally, there are only three main tools: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial policy [4][6] - The effectiveness of these traditional economic tools is diminishing, as minor adjustments in interest rates or taxes yield minimal results, leading to a situation where the Chinese economy is increasingly out of control [6] - The interconnectedness of modern economies means that issues in one area can have far-reaching impacts, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions to break through existing institutional barriers [6][8]

Core Insights - The article focuses on five key national industrial policies that are currently effective, aimed at helping companies quickly grasp policy benefits and align with development needs [1] Group 1: 5G and Industrial Internet - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aims to build 10,000 5G factories and create at least 20 integrated application pilot cities by 2027 [2] - Key opportunities for companies include subsidies for high-energy-consuming industries to build independent 5G networks and collaboration with leading enterprises for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - The policy emphasizes the need for planning technology solutions and application timelines by the end of 2025 for the first batch of independent network pilot assessments [2] Group 2: SME Challenge Mechanism - The policy encourages SMEs to lead or participate in major national and provincial technology projects, offering up to 5 million yuan in financial support for successful projects [3] - Companies should focus on "breakthrough" and "results transformation" projects, highlighting collaboration with universities and clear timelines for results [3] - Financial support is disbursed in stages, with 40% at project initiation, 30% after mid-term evaluation, and the remaining 30% upon project completion [3] Group 3: Battery Recycling - The interim measures for the recycling of new energy vehicle batteries require manufacturers to establish recycling networks with a minimum recovery rate of 90% [4] - Companies can apply for "white list" qualifications to enjoy tax reductions and priority subsidies, and collaborate with battery manufacturers for additional funding [4] - The policy mandates full coverage of recycling points by 2025, with penalties for non-compliance [4] Group 4: Smart Photovoltaics - The action plan for smart photovoltaic industry aims for over 80% smart upgrade rate of photovoltaic components by 2025, supporting integration with 5G and AI [5] - Companies can apply for up to 1 million yuan in rewards for smart photovoltaic pilot projects and should focus on smart upgrades and scenario integration [5] - Requirements for pilot projects include meeting six indicators related to smart levels and energy efficiency, necessitating third-party evaluations [5] Group 5: Innovation Support for SMEs - The policy increases the tax deduction rate for R&D expenses to 175% and establishes a 20 billion yuan innovation fund for SMEs [6] - Companies should maintain documentation for R&D projects and focus on applying for the innovation fund through local technology departments [6] - SMEs participating in national standard formulation can apply for special subsidies linked to the standard's level [6] Additional Insights - The article highlights that there are more detailed policies at national and local levels for companies to explore [7] - Companies can utilize the platform for in-depth policy queries and application tracking to better seize policy opportunities [10]

Group 1: Export Ban Impact - Indonesia's nickel export ban, implemented in 2014, aimed to promote domestic industrialization and increase domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in downstream industries[4] - The DVAR in the steel-using sector increased by 5.6% from 2011 to 2020, contrasting with an overall DVAR growth of only 1.1% in the economy[17] - The ban led to a higher share of smaller, less efficient firms entering the market, resulting in an overall loss of efficiency in downstream industries[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The export ban created a buyer's monopoly in the nickel market, leading to a decrease in domestic nickel prices, which in turn lowered steel prices[16] - Despite increased domestic steel usage, the reliance on imported steel remains significant, indicating limited capacity to produce high-quality steel domestically[19] - The average firm size in the steel-using sector decreased significantly post-ban, with a higher proportion of small new entrants, which contributed to lower overall productivity[17] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To minimize unintended negative impacts and further advance industrialization, the government should implement complementary policies such as trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI) facilitation[20] - The findings suggest that while the export ban has started to increase domestic value-added, it also incurs unexpected costs that could hinder long-term growth prospects[30] - The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive and effective policy coordination to enhance economic foundations rather than relying solely on export bans[30]

Core Viewpoints - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, as highlighted by Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan [3][5]. Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to experience a "non-typical" recovery in 2026, driven by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing domestic demand expansion policies. Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of China-U.S. tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [4][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs, with R&D expenditure projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing about 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in scale [5][10]. Capital Market Development - The capital market is set to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with a focus on direct financing and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange. This will enhance the market's inclusiveness and adaptability [5][8]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of the market, with institutional investors' share of the market value projected to exceed 20% by the end of 2024 [8]. Bull Market Analysis - The bull market is far from over, with the potential for a two-phase bull market structure. The first phase, termed "Bull Market 1.0," occurred in 2025, while the second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," may begin in the second half of 2026 [4][15]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals, the strengthening of emerging industries, and the shift of residents' asset allocation towards equities are expected to support a comprehensive bull market [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the market trading is light, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.10% to 8,980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: In the southwest production area, it has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces in late October, and the operating rate decreased significantly. In the north, the number of open furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production cut situation, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 increased by 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.85% to 52,210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease month - on - month to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market trading was light, with few new transactions. The downstream was highly resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position, and continuously monitor the implementation of the silicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1].