1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: - **Three-star ratings**: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **One-star ratings**: Coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a bias towards long/short with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. - **One-star with one white-star rating**: Ferrosilicon, indicating a certain long/short tendency but relatively balanced short-term trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand during the peak season, the resurgence of the US tariff - adding issue, and weak domestic demand. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are supported by high - level pig iron production, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by high pig iron production and external trade frictions [2][3][4][6][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs **Steel** - The steel trading floor showed a weak oscillation today. During the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventories accumulated substantially. Pig iron production remained high, and downstream carrying capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain continued to ferment. Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports in September remained high. The trading floor was under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the game between the two countries and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. **Iron Ore** - The iron ore trading floor rose today, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, global shipments decreased环比 but were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, pig iron production was highly resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs after the National Day, but the pressure for future production cuts was increasing. Considering the low direct exports to the US and the upcoming important domestic meeting in October, the emotional impact was within expectations. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level [3]. **Coke** - The coke price oscillated upward today. The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profits were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased slightly. After pre - holiday replenishment, downstream enterprises were mainly consuming inventories, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, and high - level pig iron production provided support. The coke trading floor had a slight premium, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [4]. **Coking Coal** - The coking coal price oscillated upward today. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and transaction prices remained stable. Terminal inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly环比, and production - end inventories increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines voluntarily reduced production efficiency, leading to a decline in production. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, high - level pig iron production provided support. The coking coal trading floor had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [6]. **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, inventories decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly环比, and spot ores were boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. **Ferrosilicon** - The ferrosilicon price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly环比, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a short - term shock state, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets may have a certain rebound due to the drive of coking coal [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The trading floor fluctuated today. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, and the output decreased slightly while the inventory accumulated greatly. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with similar output and inventory changes. The molten iron output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The profit of steel mills declined, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, and the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability. The real - estate sales decline widened during the long holiday, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports remained high, but the additional tariffs from the outside world brought some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the trading floor stabilized slightly, but the rebound momentum was still insufficient, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor of iron ore rose today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory increased, especially the Brazilian ore. The molten iron output remained high with toughness, but the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken. Steel mills had a certain replenishment demand before and after the National Day, but as the profit of steel mills shrank and the domestic demand was still relatively low, the pressure of future production cuts gradually increased. There were still some policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions remained. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [2] Coke - The price fluctuated within the day. The first round of price increase in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the downstream was mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coke had a slight premium, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated within the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased significantly month - on - month while the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decline in output. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coking coal had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not accumulate. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the trading floor. Although the manganese ore inventory was accumulating, the speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon recovered to a high level, and the market's spot and futures demand was good, with a slight reduction in the on - balance - sheet inventory. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has slightly rebounded. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export remains high. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still ferments repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the strength of post - holiday demand recovery [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with concerns about supply disruptions increasing, and the future pressure of steel mills to cut production gradually rising [2] - The coke price has risen, with sufficient carbon supply and the price support at the previous low being relatively solid [3] - The coking coal price has rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections, with sufficient carbon supply and relatively solid support near the previous low [5] - The silicomanganese price has bottomed out and rebounded, with high iron - water production and good market demand. It may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [6] - The ferrosilicon price has bottomed out and rebounded, with overall good demand and may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [7] Summary by Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, the output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased substantially. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with a slight decrease in output and a large increase in inventory. The iron - water output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermented repeatedly as steel mills' profits declined. The overall domestic demand was still weak, and steel exports remained high, with the EU's additional tariffs causing some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the market stabilized slightly, and the market sentiment was cautious [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures rose. The global iron ore shipment decreased month - on - month, with a large decline in non - mainstream countries, while the domestic arrival volume increased. Affected by the Ximangzhu iron ore accident and BHP agreements, concerns about supply disruptions increased. In the short term, iron - water demand was resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs around the National Day. However, as steel mills' profits shrank and domestic demand remained relatively low, the future pressure to cut production gradually increased. There were still certain policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions also remained. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and there was no news of a second - round increase. The coking profit was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the coke inventory continued to increase. Traders' purchasing willingness decreased. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the price support at the previous low was relatively solid [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. 22 central safety production inspection teams will conduct annual inspections in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and the market expected stricter coking coal production safety. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the terminal inventory rose. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, the production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the suspended coking coal mines continued to resume production. However, the possibility of further large - scale capacity release was low under the background of over - production inspections. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the support near the previous low was relatively solid. The coking coal futures price was slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not increase. The market's spot and futures demand was good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Although the manganese ore inventory increased, the inventory - building speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was okay. The ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand was good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, global risk appetite has risen, and the domestic risk - preference is also expected to continue to increase. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; among commodity sectors, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the US September ADP employment data and ISM services PMI were below expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the depreciation of the yen pushed the US dollar stronger, global risk appetite continued to rise. Domestically, the US economic data during the National Day holiday was below expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and global stock markets generally rose. The domestic central bank made a large - scale renewal of MLF, with abundant market liquidity. Multiple domestic industries' steady - growth plans were successively introduced, increasing policy support, and domestic risk appetite is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Before the holiday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, and trading volume was at a low level. During the holiday, the EU's tariff increase on the steel industry was confirmed. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences in trends among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with pre - holiday inventory decreasing by 139,800 tons and apparent consumption increasing by 104,100 tons; hot - rolled coils saw inventory accumulation and a decline in apparent consumption. The supply of five major steel products increased by 94,700 tons month - on - month, and the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. The logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue, and the steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Before the holiday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong. The daily average pig - iron output of blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons, and ore demand was still strong. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons month - on - month before the holiday, while the arrival volume increased by 3.127 million tons, and the overall supply remained high. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 1.69 million tons throughout the week. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has intensified, considering that the proportion of profitable steel mills is still above 56%, the probability of actual negative feedback being triggered in the short term is not high. The iron ore price should be treated with an interval - oscillation idea in the short term, and there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [6]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Before the holiday, the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly. The downstream steel mills' centralized procurement in September was basically completed, and with the approaching of the October tender, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - Before the holiday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated weakly. The supply is still in the capacity - release period, maintaining a loose pattern with pressure. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand increased month - on - month. Currently, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate widely in the short - term range. In the long - term, the supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view should be taken [8]. 3.3.5 Glass - Before the holiday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. After the release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the glass price formed a bottom support. Fundamentally, the supply remained stable, and in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, demand improved marginally, and the mid - and downstream carried out phased restocking. The overall supply - demand situation of glass has improved, and it is advisable to be long in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - During the holiday, LME copper rose due to concerns about the tight global copper - mine supply. The Grasberg mining area had an accident, affecting a production volume of 270,000 tons. It is expected to resume production in 2026 and fully return to normal in 2027. The domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 11.62% in September. The demand faced challenges as the factors boosting demand weakened. The recent copper inventory reduction was less than expected. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the US economic situation, which is in a slow - down trend [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Before the holiday, downstream restocking and the decline in aluminum prices stimulated downstream restocking, resulting in a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons in the weekly social inventory of aluminum. It is expected that inventory will accumulate during the holiday. Currently, the aluminum supply is rigid, with domestic production and imports at historical highs, while demand weakened marginally. The year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand in September dropped from 5% - 6% in the second quarter to - 0.7%. If deduced, even if there is inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, the speed and amplitude will be low, which will restrict the upside space of aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose mainly driven by the increase in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 21,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum [9]. 3.4.3 Tin - During the holiday, LME tin soared, driven by the increase in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin - mine exploitation. However, the impact of Indonesia's policy is limited, so the upward height is expected to be restricted. The tin price has support below due to the tightness in the mining end and the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan, resulting in a low smelting start - up rate. However, the smelter maintenance is short - term, and they will resume production in October, with the start - up rate expected to rise. The mining end will also loosen in the long run. It is expected that the price will remain in high - level oscillation in the short term, and the maintenance expectation and peak - season expectation will still support the price, but the upside space will still be under pressure [10]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - In September, the lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with weekly production reaching a new high. Driven by energy storage, the demand in the peak season is strong, and the social inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downside space is limited. The market will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the driving force of anti - involution policies [10]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon - In September, the industrial silicon output was 412,031 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month. The weekly production remained at a high level, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. There is no obvious driving force for industrial silicon, and the market should be regarded as oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [10]. 3.4.6 Polysilicon - In September, the polysilicon output was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a start - up rate of 47.28%. The latest weekly inventory was 273,800 tons, remaining at a high level. The number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. The situation of high supply and low demand persists, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price while waiting for the further implementation of the stockpiling news [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US domestic oil product inventory decreased, and the distillate inventory had the largest decline since late June, while the Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. However, OPEC+ is increasing production, the US is expected to set a production record, and Russia's exports are approaching a 16 - month high. The bearish outlook from this year to next year is still strong. Later, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the overall surplus risk will gradually increase. The short - term spot still has some support, and it may maintain an interval - oscillation pattern under geopolitical risks [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The oil price rebounded from the bottom, driving the asphalt price to rebound. However, the peak - season demand is gradually passing, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and the social inventory has not been significantly reduced, while the factory inventory has only been slightly reduced. The profit has recovered slightly recently, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. Later, the oil price will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When the asphalt inventory continues to be reduced limitedly, attention should be paid to the extent of its following the oil - price increase [11]. 3.5.3 PX - During the holiday, the change in PX was generally limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the polyester sector after the opening, and the crude - oil cost pricing support still exists. The small positive impact brought by the previous low - level start - up of devices and the increase in maintenance plans has basically been priced in. The PXN spread has recently decreased slightly to $218, and the PX outer - market price has fallen to $804. The short - term processing fee of PTA has been significantly squeezed. PX is still in a tight pattern, but the recent decline in the polyester sector as a whole may lead to a weak - oscillation trend, with some support below [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - The peak - season demand was still below expectations, terminal orders were sluggish, and the start - up rates of looms were still lower than in previous years. The reduction and shutdown of leading PTA manufacturers under low processing fees were disproven, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later. Later, the restart of maintenance devices may be delayed. There is still some support at the previous low. However, in the short term, with a large increase in short positions by funds, if the crude - oil price does not fluctuate significantly, the futures price still has long - term downward pressure [13]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price maintained low - level oscillation. The downstream demand faces similar problems as PTA. Coupled with the currently high start - up rate and the pressure of new production capacity, although the current inventory is already low, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later, and the medium - term rebound height is limited. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with a limited amplitude. The increase in the short - fiber start - up rate has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction requires the continuous improvement of terminal orders to drive the increase in the start - up rate. Currently, the subsequent upside space may be limited. In the medium term, short - fiber should follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inland methanol market oscillated narrowly. After the holiday, methanol inventory accumulated, and the high port inventory suppressed the price. There is no effective inventory - reduction path in the short term, but supported by the expectation of domestic and foreign gas restrictions, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for the opportunity to lay out long positions in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.5.8 PP - The market price slightly recovered. The supply - side pressure of PP is prominent, downstream demand is average, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and coupled with the weak crude - oil price, the price is expected to be under pressure [13]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price increased slightly. Supply increased, and it is the peak - demand season. The short - term supply - demand situation is okay, but inventory accumulation after the holiday will have some suppression on the price. With the commissioning of devices, the transition to the off - season of demand, and the downward shift of the crude - oil price center, it is expected that there is still room for the PE price to fall [13]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT market closed at 1012.00, up 3.00 or 0.30% (settlement price 1012.25). After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming soybean imports from the US. If a phased arrangement is reached in the following weeks, the possibility of resuming soybean trade will increase. In addition, if the MFP plan is implemented, it will reduce farmers' grain - holding costs, relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, and be beneficial to CBOT soybeans [14]. 3.6.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected gap in the domestic soybean supply - demand in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is bearish for soybean meal. In the short term, the short - term restocking of soybean meal may increase, and as the pressure of the concentrated listing of US soybeans eases and remains stable, the cost support for the near - month soybean meal is also expected to strengthen. However, as the risk of the far - month gap decreases, the spread between months may widen. For rapeseed meal, the import of rapeseed meal has shrunk significantly due to seasonal impacts, and domestic rapeseed inventory is exhausted. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and soybean meal dominates its main market [14]. 3.6.3 Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the accelerating reduction of rapeseed oil inventory will form support; palm oil is cost - dominated, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude - oil prices, and the strength of related oils providing additional support; soybean oil may have phased inventory accumulation due to the post - holiday demand gap, and the price may be relatively weak [15]. 3.6.4 Corn - During the holiday, the corn market in Northeast China continued to decline. After the holiday, the space for a further slight decline in the new corn in the Northeast may be limited. On the one hand, the increase in the corn price in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles decreased, and the acquisition demand increased; on the other hand, more acquisition entities will start to enter the market to purchase grain after the holiday. In addition, the wheat price rebounded rapidly in October. Although the wheat purchase at the support price has ended, the supply pressure of wheat has significantly decreased due to the previous accelerated grain sales. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to rise after the holiday, which will also provide support for the corn market [15]. 3.6.5 Pigs - During the holiday, the pig price continued to decline. After the holiday, demand will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork stockpiling dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [15].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping to 1624.5 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.43% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to remain stable before the holiday, with a balanced supply and demand situation [2] - The supply side is experiencing a rebound in coal prices, leading to deteriorating profits for coking enterprises and a slight decrease in coking coal production [2] - Demand from the steel industry is showing a slight increase in iron production, providing support for coking coal demand [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Ningzheng Futures predicts that coking coal prices will maintain stability before the holiday due to healthy market fundamentals and strong cost support [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that coking coal is in a price increase phase, with stable production and a slight decrease in output, while inventory levels are rising [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure, with increasing inventory levels and concerns about post-holiday market feedback affecting prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, driven by steel mill复产 and the expectation of restocking before the National Day holiday, iron ore prices still have room for rebound, with the upside range between 830 - 850 (100 - 102 US dollars/ton). But the ultimate contradiction in the black industry chain needs to be resolved by a decline in hot metal production. In the context of the industrial chain's negative feedback, ore prices face significant downward pressure, and the expected trigger time may be between late October and early November [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Impact of News on West Africa's Simandou Iron Ore - The news that the Guinea government requires developers such as Rio Tinto and Baowu to build processing and smelting plants in Simandou caused iron ore price fluctuations. However, the news is unlikely to affect the commissioning and shipping process of Simandou Iron Mine as Rio Tinto's main task is to ensure the first shipment by the end of 2025 [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Logic for the Recent Strength of Iron Ore Prices - The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 national steel mills is still over 60%. After the September 3rd military parade, steel mills are likely to resume production this week, and ore demand will recover [1]. - Steel mill iron ore inventories are at a low level, and there is an expectation of restocking before the October 1st holiday [1]. - Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly by 780,000 tons, causing an expectation of a phased supply contraction [1]. 3.3 Market Situation in September and October - September is a window period for iron ore price increases. Although steel mill profits have been significantly compressed, they are still in a profitable state, and the steel mill resumption process will continue. The logic of steel mills restocking raw materials before the October 1st holiday is also reasonable [4]. - In October, contradictions in the iron ore market will gradually accumulate. Against the background of weak steel demand and steel mill resumption, steel mill profits will be further compressed. Once in a continuous loss state, steel mills' willingness to actively reduce production will increase. In winter, there may be phased production restrictions in northern regions, and there may be negative feedback pressure [4][5]. 3.4 Historical Experience and Market Pressure - Before the start of winter storage each year, the steel market will have a process of finding the psychological winter storage price downward. If combined with low steel mill profits and industrial chain negative feedback, iron ore prices may face greater pressure [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which has led to concerns about supply disruptions. However, recent developments indicate a potential easing of these tensions, which may impact supply expectations and pricing dynamics in the near term [1][5][8]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol prices have recently corrected after a spike driven by fears of supply chain disruptions in Iran due to escalating conflicts. The price settled at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1]. - As of June 19, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 77.44% capacity, a 2.30 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 6.61 percentage point increase year-on-year. High profits from coal-to-methanol production are encouraging operational activity [1]. - Reports indicate that Iran's methanol production facilities may restart operations following a proposed ceasefire agreement, which could significantly alter supply expectations for July imports to China [1][4]. Demand Factors - The average operating rate of domestic coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities is at 85.53%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points. Traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a focus on essential procurement [2]. - The methanol port inventory in China reached 670,500 tons as of June 25, an increase of 84,100 tons from the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of stock [2]. Market Outlook - According to various institutions, the methanol market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to oscillate within a high range due to the interplay of geopolitical factors and domestic supply-demand dynamics. Key focus areas include the pace of Iranian facility restarts and the actual growth in import volumes [4][5][6]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks, which has led to a correction in energy prices and a potential weakening of domestic methanol futures [5][6]. - The overall market logic is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions, with ongoing uncertainties in international relations affecting trading strategies [7][8].

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]