Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1]. - It assigns a ★☆☆ rating to coke and coking coal, indicating a bullish or bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase or decrease, but poor operability on the market [1]. Core Views - The demand expectation for steel remains weak, and the market stabilizes slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of China-US game and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the upcoming important meetings [3]. - The support near the previous low of coke and coking coal is relatively solid, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for rebar increased significantly month-on-month but remained weak year-on-year. Production continued to decline, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils also increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Iron ore production remained high, but downstream demand was insufficient. As steel mill profits declined, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain continued to ferment. From the perspective of downstream industries, the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability, real estate investment declined significantly, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports remained high in September. The demand expectation remained weak, and the market stabilized slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume increased, and there was no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased significantly after the holiday, and iron ore production remained high with resilience. Steel mills had a certain demand for phased replenishment, but as profits shrank and demand remained relatively low, the pressure for future production cuts gradually increased. External trade frictions continued, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthened, and market sentiment weakened. It still needs subsequent policy support. It is expected that iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated upward during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profit levels were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre-holiday replenishment, downstream users are currently consuming inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures market is slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to increase slightly, the spot auction volume decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. Terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month-on-month, and production-end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking coal futures market is slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5,750 yuan/ton. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but production remained at a high level. Silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand remained good. The quoted price of manganese ore shipments increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price mainly oscillated during the day. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was okay. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a bullish/ bearish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, same as above [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand, negative feedback in the industrial chain, and macro - environment factors. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal have support at previous lows, and silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have relatively stable demand and supply situations. External factors such as trade frictions and tariff policies need continuous attention [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. During the long holiday, terminal demand decreased significantly month - on - month and remained weak year - on - year. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly. The recovery of post - holiday demand needs further observation. With the decline of steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain keeps fermenting. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export in September remained high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of bilateral games and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly and reached a new high this year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained resilient at a high level. After the National Day, steel mills have a certain restocking demand, but the pressure of future production cuts is increasing. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is strengthening, and the market sentiment has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade [3] Coke - The coke price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level is average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre - holiday restocking, downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders is general. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction turnover decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decrease in output. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, providing insights on their supply - demand, price trends, and investment strategies based on current market conditions such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] - It also offers views on financial products like stock indices and treasury bonds, considering macro - economic factors and policy directions [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices partially recovered on Monday. Fourth - quarter Brent crude average price is expected to drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $62/barrel. Short - term, end - of - month APAC meeting and Sino - US talks may affect risk sentiment, and the previously recommended strategy can be temporarily closed [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil's oscillation. High - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support but faces medium - term pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+增产背景下海外伴生气供应压力加剧，沙特10月CP价格下调超出市场预期，LPG缺乏利好支撑而承压 [22] - **Urea**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the domestic supply - demand pattern is loose. The market is likely to continue its weak trend [23] - **Methanol**: The Iran sanctions ship event may reduce imports. Coastal MTO device operation is stable, and port inventory accumulation is less than expected [24] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Cost support weakens, downstream demand is scattered, and inventory needs to be digested. Prices are under pressure [27] - **PVC &烧碱**: Trade friction may affect PVC exports. PVC supply is high, and it may have a weak - oscillating trend. Caustic soda has a marginal improvement, and the decline of futures prices is expected to be limited [28] - **PX & PTA**: PX price decline drives the polyester industry chain down. Supply is under pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken in the mid - to - long term [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production increases, ports accumulate inventory, but the price is at the bottom of the range. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre prices decline due to raw material and trade friction. Bottle - chip production increases inventory, and demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Glass**: It is in a weak state. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for low - buying opportunities near the cost [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Demand recovers after the holiday, supply pressure is high, and inventory decreases. It is advisable to wait and see [33] - **纯碱**: Supply is high, demand increase is limited, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It is advisable to short at high - rebound levels [34] - **大豆 &豆粕**: Domestic soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but it may be tight in Q1 next year. Wait and see for now, and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35] - **豆油 &棕榈油**: US soybean sales are slow. The supply of South American soybeans and existing domestic inventory can buffer. Palm oil inventory is high. Wait for price bottom - seeking and then go long [36] - **菜粕 &菜油**: Canadian rapeseed harvest nears completion, with good yield. Pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations. Consider short - selling rapeseed - related products in cross - product strategies [37] - **豆一**: Domestic soybeans are rebounding, and imports from the US are affected. Supply may be tight in Q1 next year. Pay attention to policy guidance [38] - **玉米**: Corn futures decline. New grain supply increases, and prices are under pressure. Hold short positions and wait for policy support [39] - **生猪**: Futures prices are under pressure, and the spot price is at the bottom. Pay attention to secondary fattening and the industry's capacity reduction cycle [40] - **鸡蛋**: Near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Accelerate the elimination of old chickens. Short near - month contracts and go long on far - month contracts [41] - **棉花**: US cotton demand is weak, and domestic cotton supply may increase significantly. Demand is weak. Temporarily wait and see [42] - **白糖**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [43] - **苹果**: Futures prices are high - oscillating. Supply change is small, and cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Adopt a short - selling strategy [44] - **木材**: Prices are in a correction. Supply is low, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see [45] - **纸浆**: Futures prices rise. Port inventory is high, and demand is average. Pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [46] - **Stock Indices**: A - share market had a V - shaped recovery. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade relations and domestic policies. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector in the medium term [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices rise. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepening may end, and long - term bonds are more likely to recover [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: - **Three-star ratings**: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **One-star ratings**: Coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a bias towards long/short with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. - **One-star with one white-star rating**: Ferrosilicon, indicating a certain long/short tendency but relatively balanced short-term trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand during the peak season, the resurgence of the US tariff - adding issue, and weak domestic demand. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are supported by high - level pig iron production, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by high pig iron production and external trade frictions [2][3][4][6][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs **Steel** - The steel trading floor showed a weak oscillation today. During the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventories accumulated substantially. Pig iron production remained high, and downstream carrying capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain continued to ferment. Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports in September remained high. The trading floor was under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the game between the two countries and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. **Iron Ore** - The iron ore trading floor rose today, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, global shipments decreased环比 but were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, pig iron production was highly resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs after the National Day, but the pressure for future production cuts was increasing. Considering the low direct exports to the US and the upcoming important domestic meeting in October, the emotional impact was within expectations. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level [3]. **Coke** - The coke price oscillated upward today. The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profits were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased slightly. After pre - holiday replenishment, downstream enterprises were mainly consuming inventories, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, and high - level pig iron production provided support. The coke trading floor had a slight premium, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [4]. **Coking Coal** - The coking coal price oscillated upward today. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and transaction prices remained stable. Terminal inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly环比, and production - end inventories increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines voluntarily reduced production efficiency, leading to a decline in production. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, high - level pig iron production provided support. The coking coal trading floor had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [6]. **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, inventories decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly环比, and spot ores were boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. **Ferrosilicon** - The ferrosilicon price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly环比, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a short - term shock state, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets may have a certain rebound due to the drive of coking coal [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The trading floor fluctuated today. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, and the output decreased slightly while the inventory accumulated greatly. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with similar output and inventory changes. The molten iron output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The profit of steel mills declined, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, and the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability. The real - estate sales decline widened during the long holiday, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports remained high, but the additional tariffs from the outside world brought some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the trading floor stabilized slightly, but the rebound momentum was still insufficient, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor of iron ore rose today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory increased, especially the Brazilian ore. The molten iron output remained high with toughness, but the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken. Steel mills had a certain replenishment demand before and after the National Day, but as the profit of steel mills shrank and the domestic demand was still relatively low, the pressure of future production cuts gradually increased. There were still some policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions remained. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [2] Coke - The price fluctuated within the day. The first round of price increase in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the downstream was mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coke had a slight premium, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated within the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased significantly month - on - month while the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decline in output. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coking coal had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not accumulate. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the trading floor. Although the manganese ore inventory was accumulating, the speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon recovered to a high level, and the market's spot and futures demand was good, with a slight reduction in the on - balance - sheet inventory. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has slightly rebounded. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export remains high. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still ferments repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the strength of post - holiday demand recovery [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with concerns about supply disruptions increasing, and the future pressure of steel mills to cut production gradually rising [2] - The coke price has risen, with sufficient carbon supply and the price support at the previous low being relatively solid [3] - The coking coal price has rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections, with sufficient carbon supply and relatively solid support near the previous low [5] - The silicomanganese price has bottomed out and rebounded, with high iron - water production and good market demand. It may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [6] - The ferrosilicon price has bottomed out and rebounded, with overall good demand and may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [7] Summary by Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, the output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased substantially. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with a slight decrease in output and a large increase in inventory. The iron - water output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermented repeatedly as steel mills' profits declined. The overall domestic demand was still weak, and steel exports remained high, with the EU's additional tariffs causing some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the market stabilized slightly, and the market sentiment was cautious [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures rose. The global iron ore shipment decreased month - on - month, with a large decline in non - mainstream countries, while the domestic arrival volume increased. Affected by the Ximangzhu iron ore accident and BHP agreements, concerns about supply disruptions increased. In the short term, iron - water demand was resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs around the National Day. However, as steel mills' profits shrank and domestic demand remained relatively low, the future pressure to cut production gradually increased. There were still certain policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions also remained. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and there was no news of a second - round increase. The coking profit was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the coke inventory continued to increase. Traders' purchasing willingness decreased. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the price support at the previous low was relatively solid [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. 22 central safety production inspection teams will conduct annual inspections in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and the market expected stricter coking coal production safety. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the terminal inventory rose. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, the production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the suspended coking coal mines continued to resume production. However, the possibility of further large - scale capacity release was low under the background of over - production inspections. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the support near the previous low was relatively solid. The coking coal futures price was slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not increase. The market's spot and futures demand was good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Although the manganese ore inventory increased, the inventory - building speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was okay. The ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand was good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, global risk appetite has risen, and the domestic risk - preference is also expected to continue to increase. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; among commodity sectors, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the US September ADP employment data and ISM services PMI were below expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the depreciation of the yen pushed the US dollar stronger, global risk appetite continued to rise. Domestically, the US economic data during the National Day holiday was below expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and global stock markets generally rose. The domestic central bank made a large - scale renewal of MLF, with abundant market liquidity. Multiple domestic industries' steady - growth plans were successively introduced, increasing policy support, and domestic risk appetite is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Before the holiday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, and trading volume was at a low level. During the holiday, the EU's tariff increase on the steel industry was confirmed. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences in trends among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with pre - holiday inventory decreasing by 139,800 tons and apparent consumption increasing by 104,100 tons; hot - rolled coils saw inventory accumulation and a decline in apparent consumption. The supply of five major steel products increased by 94,700 tons month - on - month, and the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. The logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue, and the steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Before the holiday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong. The daily average pig - iron output of blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons, and ore demand was still strong. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons month - on - month before the holiday, while the arrival volume increased by 3.127 million tons, and the overall supply remained high. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 1.69 million tons throughout the week. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has intensified, considering that the proportion of profitable steel mills is still above 56%, the probability of actual negative feedback being triggered in the short term is not high. The iron ore price should be treated with an interval - oscillation idea in the short term, and there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [6]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Before the holiday, the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly. The downstream steel mills' centralized procurement in September was basically completed, and with the approaching of the October tender, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - Before the holiday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated weakly. The supply is still in the capacity - release period, maintaining a loose pattern with pressure. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand increased month - on - month. Currently, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate widely in the short - term range. In the long - term, the supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view should be taken [8]. 3.3.5 Glass - Before the holiday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. After the release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the glass price formed a bottom support. Fundamentally, the supply remained stable, and in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, demand improved marginally, and the mid - and downstream carried out phased restocking. The overall supply - demand situation of glass has improved, and it is advisable to be long in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - During the holiday, LME copper rose due to concerns about the tight global copper - mine supply. The Grasberg mining area had an accident, affecting a production volume of 270,000 tons. It is expected to resume production in 2026 and fully return to normal in 2027. The domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 11.62% in September. The demand faced challenges as the factors boosting demand weakened. The recent copper inventory reduction was less than expected. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the US economic situation, which is in a slow - down trend [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Before the holiday, downstream restocking and the decline in aluminum prices stimulated downstream restocking, resulting in a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons in the weekly social inventory of aluminum. It is expected that inventory will accumulate during the holiday. Currently, the aluminum supply is rigid, with domestic production and imports at historical highs, while demand weakened marginally. The year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand in September dropped from 5% - 6% in the second quarter to - 0.7%. If deduced, even if there is inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, the speed and amplitude will be low, which will restrict the upside space of aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose mainly driven by the increase in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 21,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum [9]. 3.4.3 Tin - During the holiday, LME tin soared, driven by the increase in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin - mine exploitation. However, the impact of Indonesia's policy is limited, so the upward height is expected to be restricted. The tin price has support below due to the tightness in the mining end and the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan, resulting in a low smelting start - up rate. However, the smelter maintenance is short - term, and they will resume production in October, with the start - up rate expected to rise. The mining end will also loosen in the long run. It is expected that the price will remain in high - level oscillation in the short term, and the maintenance expectation and peak - season expectation will still support the price, but the upside space will still be under pressure [10]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - In September, the lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with weekly production reaching a new high. Driven by energy storage, the demand in the peak season is strong, and the social inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downside space is limited. The market will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the driving force of anti - involution policies [10]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon - In September, the industrial silicon output was 412,031 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month. The weekly production remained at a high level, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. There is no obvious driving force for industrial silicon, and the market should be regarded as oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [10]. 3.4.6 Polysilicon - In September, the polysilicon output was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a start - up rate of 47.28%. The latest weekly inventory was 273,800 tons, remaining at a high level. The number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. The situation of high supply and low demand persists, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price while waiting for the further implementation of the stockpiling news [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US domestic oil product inventory decreased, and the distillate inventory had the largest decline since late June, while the Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. However, OPEC+ is increasing production, the US is expected to set a production record, and Russia's exports are approaching a 16 - month high. The bearish outlook from this year to next year is still strong. Later, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the overall surplus risk will gradually increase. The short - term spot still has some support, and it may maintain an interval - oscillation pattern under geopolitical risks [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The oil price rebounded from the bottom, driving the asphalt price to rebound. However, the peak - season demand is gradually passing, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and the social inventory has not been significantly reduced, while the factory inventory has only been slightly reduced. The profit has recovered slightly recently, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. Later, the oil price will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When the asphalt inventory continues to be reduced limitedly, attention should be paid to the extent of its following the oil - price increase [11]. 3.5.3 PX - During the holiday, the change in PX was generally limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the polyester sector after the opening, and the crude - oil cost pricing support still exists. The small positive impact brought by the previous low - level start - up of devices and the increase in maintenance plans has basically been priced in. The PXN spread has recently decreased slightly to $218, and the PX outer - market price has fallen to $804. The short - term processing fee of PTA has been significantly squeezed. PX is still in a tight pattern, but the recent decline in the polyester sector as a whole may lead to a weak - oscillation trend, with some support below [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - The peak - season demand was still below expectations, terminal orders were sluggish, and the start - up rates of looms were still lower than in previous years. The reduction and shutdown of leading PTA manufacturers under low processing fees were disproven, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later. Later, the restart of maintenance devices may be delayed. There is still some support at the previous low. However, in the short term, with a large increase in short positions by funds, if the crude - oil price does not fluctuate significantly, the futures price still has long - term downward pressure [13]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price maintained low - level oscillation. The downstream demand faces similar problems as PTA. Coupled with the currently high start - up rate and the pressure of new production capacity, although the current inventory is already low, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later, and the medium - term rebound height is limited. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with a limited amplitude. The increase in the short - fiber start - up rate has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction requires the continuous improvement of terminal orders to drive the increase in the start - up rate. Currently, the subsequent upside space may be limited. In the medium term, short - fiber should follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inland methanol market oscillated narrowly. After the holiday, methanol inventory accumulated, and the high port inventory suppressed the price. There is no effective inventory - reduction path in the short term, but supported by the expectation of domestic and foreign gas restrictions, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for the opportunity to lay out long positions in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.5.8 PP - The market price slightly recovered. The supply - side pressure of PP is prominent, downstream demand is average, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and coupled with the weak crude - oil price, the price is expected to be under pressure [13]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price increased slightly. Supply increased, and it is the peak - demand season. The short - term supply - demand situation is okay, but inventory accumulation after the holiday will have some suppression on the price. With the commissioning of devices, the transition to the off - season of demand, and the downward shift of the crude - oil price center, it is expected that there is still room for the PE price to fall [13]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT market closed at 1012.00, up 3.00 or 0.30% (settlement price 1012.25). After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming soybean imports from the US. If a phased arrangement is reached in the following weeks, the possibility of resuming soybean trade will increase. In addition, if the MFP plan is implemented, it will reduce farmers' grain - holding costs, relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, and be beneficial to CBOT soybeans [14]. 3.6.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected gap in the domestic soybean supply - demand in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is bearish for soybean meal. In the short term, the short - term restocking of soybean meal may increase, and as the pressure of the concentrated listing of US soybeans eases and remains stable, the cost support for the near - month soybean meal is also expected to strengthen. However, as the risk of the far - month gap decreases, the spread between months may widen. For rapeseed meal, the import of rapeseed meal has shrunk significantly due to seasonal impacts, and domestic rapeseed inventory is exhausted. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and soybean meal dominates its main market [14]. 3.6.3 Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the accelerating reduction of rapeseed oil inventory will form support; palm oil is cost - dominated, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude - oil prices, and the strength of related oils providing additional support; soybean oil may have phased inventory accumulation due to the post - holiday demand gap, and the price may be relatively weak [15]. 3.6.4 Corn - During the holiday, the corn market in Northeast China continued to decline. After the holiday, the space for a further slight decline in the new corn in the Northeast may be limited. On the one hand, the increase in the corn price in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles decreased, and the acquisition demand increased; on the other hand, more acquisition entities will start to enter the market to purchase grain after the holiday. In addition, the wheat price rebounded rapidly in October. Although the wheat purchase at the support price has ended, the supply pressure of wheat has significantly decreased due to the previous accelerated grain sales. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to rise after the holiday, which will also provide support for the corn market [15]. 3.6.5 Pigs - During the holiday, the pig price continued to decline. After the holiday, demand will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork stockpiling dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [15].