Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The copper price broke through and rose this week. With supply disturbances and expected decline in electrolytic copper production in September, there is obvious support at the bottom, and potential squeezing risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply slightly increased, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in September with inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound and is recommended for observation; in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for short - side allocation. Inside - outside positive spreads can be held, and opportunities for positive spreads between months can be noted [5][6]. - The nickel market has high - level pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and stable premiums. With the situation in Indonesia to be continuously monitored, the short - term fundamental situation is average [7]. - The stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals with partial passive production cuts by steel mills, mainly rigid demand, and stable inventory in Xifu areas. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Indonesia [10]. - The lead price oscillated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [18]. - The lithium carbonate price declined this week. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 39, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The rumor of tax rebate cancellation in some areas led to a tight waste - refined price difference, and the production of anode copper may be affected in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots all increased by 20, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 12. The LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly increased, and demand was in the seasonal off - peak season in August with a slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The inventory is expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 375 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has limited upward movement, and the import TC increased. The smelting increment in August was further realized. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has certain resilience, and overseas demand has some resistance in production due to processing fees [5]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and the LME inventory increased by 3996 [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and premiums were stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous monitoring [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills had partial passive production cuts, demand was mainly rigid, and inventory in Xifu areas remained stable [10]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium increased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 3475 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot import profit increased by 874.40, and the LME inventory increased by 20 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and overseas production resumption difficulties, and demand has a peak - season expectation but also a decline in photovoltaic growth [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 20, and the 553 East China basis decreased by 20 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang is progressing steadily, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng, and there is over - capacity in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2111 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The price declined this week due to multiple factors. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21].

Group 1 - The best time to buy gold typically occurs during periods of price lows, low market risk sentiment, and strong dollar and real interest rates putting pressure on gold prices [1][3] - When international gold prices adjust due to short-term economic data or policy expectations, but long-term demand logic remains intact, it is often the best time for rational investment [1][3] - If precise short-term fluctuations cannot be predicted, strategies such as dollar-cost averaging or phased buying can help smooth costs and reduce the risk of one-time purchases [1][3] Group 2 - Key factors influencing the timing of gold purchases include price trends, market environment, and macroeconomic conditions [3] - Price factors are fundamental for choosing when to buy gold, as significant price fluctuations require understanding price ranges [4][5] - When international gold prices decline more than 5%-10% from recent highs and stabilize at key support levels, it often indicates undervaluation, suggesting phased buying [5][6] Group 3 - The long-term trend of gold is closely related to the global economic environment [6][7] - A strong dollar index or a Federal Reserve rate hike cycle tends to put pressure on gold prices, making it a potentially lower-cost buying opportunity [7][8] - When inflation rises, financial markets become unstable, or geopolitical risks emerge, demand for gold significantly increases, leading to potential price rises, thus making early positioning advisable [8][9] Group 4 - Market sentiment often amplifies price volatility, and during overly optimistic periods, it is unwise to chase high prices [9][10] - When trading in the gold market is quiet, and mainstream analysis is cautious or pessimistic, it often indicates that prices are nearing undervaluation, presenting a more stable buying opportunity [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the fatty acid market, particularly for stearic acid and lauric acid, driven by the strong rise in palm oil prices since August [1][2] - As of August 31, the average price of stearic acid was 10,044 yuan per ton, an increase of 571.22 yuan (6.03%) from August 1, while lauric acid averaged 18,600 yuan, up 1,703.05 yuan (10.08%) [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing tight supply and cost support, leading stearic acid producers to flexibly adjust prices based on their inventory, with expectations of price increases in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - The strong performance of palm oil, primarily imported from Malaysia and Indonesia, is influencing domestic prices, with palm oil prices rising to an average of 9,393.57 yuan, up 470.64 yuan (5.27%) since August 1 [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory was reported at 2.113 million tons, lower than expected, while exports increased by 3.82%, alleviating concerns of oversupply and supporting price increases [2] - Indonesia's biodiesel policies are expected to sustain demand for palm oil, further supporting international prices as exports decrease [2] Group 3 - The fatty acid market is facing supply constraints due to raw material shortages, low operating rates, and low inventory levels among companies, which are limiting the availability of stearic acid [3] - Despite weak terminal demand and reduced production capacity, the overall supply-demand balance remains tight, keeping stearic acid prices elevated [3] - The import volume of stearic acid in July was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 32.9% year-on-year, with rising import costs further suppressing import intentions [3] Group 4 - Demand for fatty acids is currently weak, with downstream industries primarily consuming previously low-priced orders and showing resistance to high-priced raw materials [4] - The tire and real estate sectors have not yet activated demand, leading to a supply surplus in the stearic acid market, where some manufacturers are forced to lower prices to stimulate sales [4] - The PVC production chain, which relies on stearic acid, is facing low demand due to limited new construction projects in real estate, resulting in only essential purchases from downstream enterprises [4] Group 5 - Lauric acid demand is also affected by seasonal changes, with a decline in demand from the daily chemical and food industries as they enter autumn and winter [5] - However, there is some minor replenishment of inventory due to the rising prices of palm kernel oil, despite overall market transactions being limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price broke upward this week. The market order transactions remained resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. There are concerns about anode copper production in September and October, and potential squeeze - out risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to July. August was a seasonal off - peak for demand, but there was a slight improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased in August, and demand was seasonally weak domestically but had some resistance overseas. Short - term rebound is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take a short - position in the long - term. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and positive spreads between months can be noted [4]. - For nickel, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous attention [6]. - The stainless - steel market had some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate, and the southwest production is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - The lithium carbonate price decreased this week. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 55, the spread increased by 133, and the LME inventory increased by 950. The copper price broke upward this week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. Some regions' scrap copper rod production decreased, and there are concerns about anode copper production in September and October [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a seasonal off - peak in August [1]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory situation [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 120, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500. The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in August, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some resistance. Short - term rebound is expected, and long - term short - position is recommended [4]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 132. The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and demand was weak [6]. - **Situation in Indonesia**: The parade in Indonesia turned into a riot, and the situation needs continuous attention [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 30. Some steel mills had passive production cuts [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the lead price oscillated, the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000, and the exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the tin price oscillated upward, the LME inventory increased by 115, and the position increased by 15,147 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased. The production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices decreased by 350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 930. The price decreased this week [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The pure benzene market shows short - term resilience but faces increasing supply - demand contradictions and price decline risks after September [3]. - The styrene market has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern, with limited upward price movement and a long - term supply - surplus situation [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 25, the styrene main contract closed down 0.65% at 7,330 yuan/ton with a basis of 25 (+28 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.03% at 6,206 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 25, Brent crude closed at 63.7 (+0.1 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.7 dollars/barrel, and East China pure benzene spot was 6,072.5 yuan/ton (-17.5 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 tons (+1.3 tons), an 8.5% stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.2 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene may have reduced supply due to plant maintenance at the end of August. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 tons (+0.2 tons) with a plant capacity utilization of 78.5% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S开工率 varies. EPS capacity utilization is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS 71.1% (+0%), and PS 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous increase [2]. - **Views** - **Pure Benzene**: In the short - term, it maintains resilience due to plant fluctuations and low inventory, but after September, supply - demand contradictions may intensify, and prices may decline [3]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern. Short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - term is in an oversupply situation [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The report provides price data for styrene and pure benzene from August 22 to August 25, including futures, spot, and various price differences [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 15 to August 22, styrene output increased by 0.45% to 37.1 tons, and pure benzene output increased by 1.26% to 45.1 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 8.53% to 16.2 tons, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 1.37% to 14.4 tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization of styrene increased by 0.35% to 78.5%, and that of some downstream products changed to varying degrees [8]. III. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced difficulties, causing international oil prices to rise [9]. - Global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical industry chain [9]. - India plans to expand petrochemical production to counter China's dominance in the global petrochemical market [9]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some regional pressures. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to be in a state of inventory accumulation, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, while the domestic vegetable oil has a relatively stable fundamental situation. The US corn may have a rebound space, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline. The pig price is expected to decline slightly, and the peanut market is expected to be stable with new - season supply increasing. The egg market has obvious supply - side pressure, and the apple market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][10][18][24][30][34][44][52][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1062.75 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.41% to 293.4 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, US soybean crop good - excellent rate was 69%. As of August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The expected current - year soybean import volume increased by 120 tons to 1.5 million tons. As of August 22, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. Soybean inventory increased by 0.31% to 6.8253 million tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 3.8% to 1.0533 million tons [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have price or export pressure. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy soybean and rapeseed meal at low prices for far - month contracts; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, with the main contract down 0.05 (- 0.3%) to 16.39 cents/lb. London white sugar price rose in the previous trading day, with the main contract up 3.4 (0.7%) to 486.3 dollars/ton [8]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume was 2.9169 million tons. Southern China's sugar quotes were stable with average transactions [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [11][12][13]. Oilseeds - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.94% to 54.84 cents/lb, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price fell 0.24% to 4482 ringgit/ton [15]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. In July, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13%. As of August 22, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 5.70%, and the soybean oil inventory increased by 3.79% [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. The domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and the vegetable oil inventory is decreasing [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, expand the P15 spread after a correction; for options, wait and see [19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.5% to 412.5 cents/bu [21]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 23, Brazil's second - crop corn harvest rate was 94.8%. The US corn export inspection volume increased. The domestic corn price was weak [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn may rebound, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy the December corn on dips and go long on the 01 corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [25][27]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with some regions falling. Piglet and sow prices changed, and the pork wholesale price was stable [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure increased, and the price is expected to decline slightly [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [31]. Peanut - **Relevant Information**: The peanut price was weakly falling, the oil mill's demand was low, and the peanut oil price was strong. The peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is stable, but the new - season supply is expected to increase [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short 11 and 01 peanuts on rallies, wait and see currently, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [35][37][38]. Egg - **Relevant Information**: The egg price was stable, the in - production laying hen inventory increased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory increased [40][42][43]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline. Consider shorting on rallies [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Apple - **Relevant Information**: The apple cold - storage inventory decreased, the import and export volumes changed, the early - maturing apple price was polarized, and the storage profit decreased [47][51][52]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.62 (0.91%) to 67.38 cents/lb [57]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, the US cotton good - excellent rate was 54%. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade was 200,000 tons. As of mid - August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at a low level [58]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact is weakened, the supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [59][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [62].

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]

Group 1 - The float glass industry is entering a traditional peak season, which may lead to a temporary improvement in the supply-demand structure [1] - The average ex-factory price of domestic light soda ash is 1267.5 yuan/ton, down 2.9% from the end of July, while the average ex-factory price of float glass is 1209.38 yuan/ton, down 6.92% from the end of July [1] - Despite high inventory levels among float glass producers and intermediaries, improved orders from downstream processing plants are expected to support the sales rate of float glass manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The soda ash market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand imbalance, with the Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's second phase 2.8 million ton facility expected to start production in the second half of the year [2] - The operating load of the soda ash industry is expected to remain between 85%-89%, with a daily output of 10.7-11.2 thousand tons [2] - The demand for soda ash remains relatively stable, but poor profitability of downstream products limits support for the soda ash market, leading to expectations of a weak market in the short to medium term [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]