关税预期推升铜价！含铜量高的大成有色ETF(159980)连续7周获资金净流入 投资风向标 相关媒体报道称，美国即将迎来一波规模庞大的铜货运潮，预计未来几周将有10-15万吨精炼铜抵达美国，若全部在同一个月内到达，将超过2022年1月 创下的136951吨历史记录。对此，业内知名铜行业交易员表示，"大量铜涌入美国，将使世界其他地区——尤其是那些最主要的铜消费国面临严重的供应短 缺。我们认为铜市场正在发生非同寻常的事情。" 国盛证券表示，关税预期下现货紧缺推升铜价，静待宏观刺激后下游需求释放。信达期货指出，需求旺季支撑铜需求，加上国内宏观情绪偏暖和海外消 息缓解矿端紧缩担忧，后续铜价或维持偏强走势。 IMCI指数（上期有色金属指数）由上海期货交易所铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、锡六种有色金属期货合约构成，覆盖全面，其中铜占比接近50%，该指数直 接反映有色金属实物价格，或将直接受益于铜价上涨。 相关产品方面，作为市场唯一跟踪IMCI指数（上期有色金属指数）的大成有色ETF(159980)今日早盘表现强势，震荡涨近1%。截至3月21日，成有色 ETF(159980)近7周获得连续资金净流入。 | 报告期 | 流通份额(亿份 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry or related options strategies [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is influencing copper prices, with tariff expectations affecting inflation transmission, leading to a bearish outlook due to weak U.S. economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve [4][12]. - Domestic policy expectations during the Two Sessions period are relatively positive, contrasting with global trends [4][12]. - Supply disruptions are intensifying, with spot TC falling to negative values and refining losses worsening compared to last year, despite high copper prices and stable refined production [4][12]. - The price range for copper is expected to oscillate between 75,000 and 78,000, with recent attempts to breach 77,500 being unsuccessful [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In February 2025, copper prices experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai copper contract reaching a maximum of 78,740 CNY/ton and a minimum of 75,000 CNY/ton, closing at 76,840 CNY/ton, reflecting a monthly increase of 1.51% [7]. - London copper mirrored this trend, with a peak of 9,684.5 USD/ton and a low of 8,914.5 USD/ton, closing at 9,361.0 USD/ton, marking a monthly increase of 3.46% [7]. 2. Options Market Review - Total copper options trading volume in February 2025 was 1,475,487 contracts, an increase of 302,502 contracts from the previous month, with a latest open interest of 66,851 contracts, up by 14,864 contracts [8]. - The main contract CU2504 saw a total trading volume of 388,954 contracts, with an open interest of 48,459 contracts, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [9]. 3. Volatility Analysis - The short-term historical volatility for Shanghai copper fell significantly, with the latest 10-day historical volatility at 9.64%, down from 14.06% [10]. - The implied volatility for the main CU2504 contract decreased to 12.26%, down from 14.21%, indicating a substantial drop in market expectations for future price movements [11]. 4. Options Strategy Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, it is recommended to sell call options at high copper price points, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound state due to tariff expectations [12].